digital assets @fundstrat / @fundstratdirect
New York, NY
- Tweets 1,621
- Following 1,356
- Followers 16,282
- Likes 2,583
Guys just a heads up - when pitching a token to tradfi you don’t need to bring up the “revenue meta.” Revenue is universally understood to be a good thing outside of the asylum
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This was by far the most impactful piece of today’s FOMC statement. Wonder how many folks caught this
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Part of growing up is realizing that the bid that sends eth to 10k will come from the people that have no idea how to spell ethereum
Adding a half position in $Bmnr today at $34.51. Etherium is the backbone in the blockchain in designing these secure applications. None is larger than the adoption of Stablecoin. With Tom Lee as chairman and being in the right spot at the right time, this represents a strong speculative opportunity.
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The SEC is as good at protecting investors as they are at protecting their passwords
The @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.
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Lots of short covering going on out there. Would be a shame to see short sellers get trapped in all these miners w short interest > 20%
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1. US owns BTC now (albeit via fiat which does introduce the risk of a future regime undoing the EO)
2. It’s a BTC strategic reserve (no alts).
3. They do away with the silly idea of using taxpayer money to acquire BTC. I love corn but we shouldn’t be engaging in such actions while running a huge deficit.
4. The second order effects of this are more important than 200k of supply being taken off the market. We likely see more energy at the state level (esp in states that run surpluses) and see other nation states move toward adoption to front run any future potential bid.
5. Further legitimizes the asset for institutional investors that are perhaps still on the fence.
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A Trump win will result in a premium to crypto prices but I do not think Harris will result in a discount beyond immediate post-election volatility (we prob go lower in the short term if she wins). Esp given the likelihood of a red senate.
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No, based on available information, these changes will really only affect DATs that have yet to launch
Sean, could the action taken below be a precursor for MSTR inclusion in the S&P 500 index thereby making it more likely? “Strategy stocks dropped 3.5% after Nasdaq began requiring shareholder approval for new shares used to buy cryptocurrency”
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Many claim that "the economy is not the stock market" but financialization has made them inseparable. Some fragilities only reveal themselves when the tide goes out.
NEGATIVE WEALTH SHOCK
B/c households are massively OW stocks, the current 10% market decline has created a wealth shock equivalent to 12% of GDP.
10% corrections are typical (53 since 1950).
But, wealth shocks are rare (13).
The economy is more vulnerable to a stock decline
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And so begins DAT consolidation
Great outcome for @SemlerEric and team
STRIVE ($ASST) UPDATES
- Strive entered into a definitive agreement to acquire @SemlerSci ($SMLR) in an all-stock transaction.
- @Strive announced the purchase of 5,816 Bitcoin.
- The combined company will hold > 10,900 BTC.
- @SemlerEric to join Strive board post close.
- Post-merger intention to monetize or distribute Semler Scientific’s historically profitable diagnostics business.
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The floodgates are open.
Circle was an ideal lead blocker. I doubt this is the last filing one we see over the next couple of months
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On 2/4 we advised crypto clients / subs that it was a good time to raise some cash. This was driven by a number of factors:
1. Trade War - It was clear that Trump was not balking on trade and that an acceleration of tariff dialogue would increase the risk of stagflationary pricing (crypto does not like this)
2. Lack of a dovish Fed - based on the Jan FOMC and robust Econ data JP was unlikely to be in a rush to cut rates. It might be the case that the current growth scare moves the needle on that front but TBD.
3. Lack of a near term catalyst - While there are plenty of fundamentally massive tailwinds for crypto over the medium/long-term, we likely have some time before any news that could affect flows hits the tape (Govt does not move at the speed of crypto)
4. Headline risk - regardless of where you fall on the political spectrum I think most would agree on the unpredictable nature of Trump esp when it comes to public coms. He uses the media as leverage in negotiations. Such a skittish environment is not great for assets furthest out on the risk curve.
5. The flows picture was also dimming as etf flows and spot volumes were waning. This also aligned with the technical picture turning negative (h/t @MarkNewtonCMT)
What we didn’t foresee was just how quickly a growth scare would compound underlying trade concerns (we have discussed these in recent comments videos). Not great!
Crypto has since drawn down substantially and many are shaking their heads wondering why. Well, see above.
The good news is that crypto often prices in risks well before other assets do. Hence why alts led BTC and BTC led equities. I’m not of the view that this cycle is over (would say, a 75% confidence level) and if I had to guess we are getting close to maximum fear. Stay tuned and subscribe for more insights like the ones above.
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SAB 121 gone, OCP 2.0 gone, an EO promoting self-custody and the use of public blockchains, and the first ever crypto specific senate committee. Yes price action was muted, which is something we’ll need to contend with in the coming days. But holy smokes what a day.
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The obvious takeaway from META and MSFT earnings is that the AI capex cycle still has a lot of juice left, and companies w AI infra assets should continue to benefit (looking at you AI/HPC miners + GLXY)
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Market absorbed that 2B like it was nothing
Strategy has acquired 20,356 BTC for ~$1.99B at ~$97,514 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 6.9% YTD 2025. As of 2/23/2025, we hodl 499,096 $BTC acquired for ~$33.1 billion at ~$66,357 per bitcoin. $MSTR strategy.com/press/strategy-…
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BTC outperformance during the asia session, starting around the time that China began its devaluation of the yuan, certainly has my attention
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Good time to be long volatility
Fundstrat's @SeanmFarrell on $BTC: "I think what’s going to happen is we’re going to see a continued volatility on the short and medium term... What ends up happening is the Fed will probably start to take their foot off the brake." finance.yahoo.com/
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When I said SOL was a no brainer trade this yr this is not exactly what I had in mind but nevertheless we ride
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Respondent quotes from today's ISM report are pretty telling. Those with a negative outlook on Q3 cite election uncertainty or lack of spend due to rates. Both should be resolved in Q4.
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Jamie’s negative rhetoric is likely driven by what banking regulators want to hear. If he expects banking regulators to change, it makes sense that he would change his tune
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I agree this report is an absolute banger. Brought to you by @Tom_Couture17
This is actually a really well thought out thesis report on $PEAS 🤝 @fs_insight
@fundstrat, now that Bitcoin ETF is a hot topic on Wall St & w Mutual Funds, when @CNBC interview about novel yield generating crypto ETFs? The market is exponential as you point out... 🧠💡
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The alchemy of 5%
BitMine today announced holdings of ETH exceeding $4.96 billion. Its ETH holdings total 1,150,263 at $4,311 per ETH, making BitMine the largest ETH treasury in the world. prnewswire.com/news-releases…
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Market might seem frothy to some but plz understand that we just went from an objectively oppressive regulatory regime to an overtly friendly one overnight. Charts have every right to show step-function-like returns here
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Trump’s Sunday surprise clarifies two key points:
1. The WH is indeed endorsing a strategic stockpile.
2. The plan involves holding assets beyond just BTC (this is dumb af but not the point here).
We are still left with more questions than answers, particularly regarding the timing and magnitude of flows. What remains unclear is:
1. How the government will execute this plan
2. The size of the reserve
3. The timeline for completion
4. The criteria for including specific assets
We may learn more about these details at Friday's WH crypto summit. There’s also a possibility of additional info emerging at 130 today, when Trump is scheduled to make an “investment announcement.”
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Sure thing pal
Markets are forward looking. That's why gold is up 10% in advance of coming rate cuts. Bitcoin's failure to rally with gold based on the same prospects should cause him concern. Instead of hitting $200K by year-end after the Fed cuts rates, it's more likely to sink below $100K.
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Cool CPI, soft retail sales, a sharp Bessent hearing, not a lot of macro data next week with significant upside headline risk. The math checks out.
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Ppl are overreacting to the digital asset stockpile verbiage. The WH is just preserving optionality and/or covering their bases in the event they decide not to sell the whole basket. Meanwhile there’s only 1 asset being contemplated by congress right now for a strategic reserve
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I find the lack of relative fanfare around the MSTR bid fascinating. If deployment is allocated evenly across all 3 yrs of the plan, that would equate to $14B in spot demand. That is nearly half of the annualized YTD ETF inflows. Not to mention that the ETF flows are a mix of net longs and basis trade. That is material any way you slice it.
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You didn't have to get into PUMP ICO to capitalize on the memecoin launchpad trade
Considering the $PUMP sale sold out in 12 minutes, it's worth taking a look at @bonk_inu
Their meme launchpad also splits revenue, with 50% of fees earmarked for buying and burning $BONK
Implies a 2.4x from here *BEFORE* the PUMP sale, per @fundstrat analyst @SeanMFarrell
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If one were to trade purely off of seasonal trends, the next 2-3 weeks are not ones in which you would want to be short
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Huge
The OCC reaffirmed that crypto-asset custody, holding deposits that serve as reserves backing stablecoins, & the use of distributed ledger technology & stablecoins to facilitate permissible payments activities are permissible in the federal banking system. occ.gov/news-issuances/news-…
ALT OCC Clarifies Bank Authority to Engage in Certain Cryptocurrency Activities
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Arguably more important than the EO. States and other nation states are now more likely to enshrine BTC as a strategic asset now that the US has a national stockpile
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick says Bitcoin's "limited supply and decentralized nature" makes it a critical asset for Texas' future.
"I hope to make Texas the epicenter of America's digital future."
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Yeah i don't think he resigns. But if he does, you probably want to buy that BTC candle with two hands
Statement from Chairman of the Board of Fannie Mae on Reports that Jerome Powell Is Considering Resigning
Washington, D.C. - "I'm encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is considering resigning. I think this will be the right decision for America, and the economy will boom."
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We had the opportunity to sit down with @VitalikButerin to discuss some of the most pressing questions surrounding ETH. Among topics covered:
-The experimentation-to-low-risk-DeFi pipeline
-His perspective on the economic and social influence of DATs
-Whether he believes L2s are parasitic to ETH, and if he’d like to see more revenue collection at the L1
-His thoughts on the institutional adoption of ETH
-His price target for ETH (sort of)
1/🚨New exciting episode on Level Up!
Captured at Medici SG 25: @David_Grid & @SeanMFarrell sit down with @VitalikButerin after his @ethereumfndn panel to unpack @Ethereum's evolution from experimental innovation to low-risk DeFi, and how commercialization and institutional participation shape what's next.
They discuss:
• Low-risk DeFi as Ethereum’s backbone
• How experiments become core infra
• L2s, institutional adoption, ETH economics
• Ethereum’s “two-sided engine” of stability + innovation
Full episode links + snippet below 🔗👇
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People keep saying sentiment in crypto is bad, but anecdotally, I would say most are still asking when to BTFD. Not what you normally see at the bottom. The good news is that investor attitude adjustments can happen fast.
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This is nothing like UST though. It’s just a derivative trading at a discount to the underlying asset
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I like to think there is someone out there who went off the grid yesterday morning and is just now getting back to their desk and is very confused
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Arms race continues. Huge deal for WULF
TeraWulf Signs 200+ MW, 10-Year AI Hosting Agreements with Fluidstack 🐺
TeraWulf will deliver over 200 MW of critical IT load at its Lake Mariner data center campus to Fluidstack. The agreements represent ~$3.7 billion in contracted revenue over the initial 10-year terms and includes two five-year extension options which, if exercised, would bring the total contract revenue to ~$8.7 billion.
To support the buildout, @google will backstop $1.8 billion of @fluidstack's lease obligations to support project-related debt financing, and will receive warrants to acquire ~41 million shares of $WULF common stock, equating to an ~8% pro forma equity ownership stake.
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Wow
BREAKING: @realDonaldTrump ANNOUNCES THAT HIS EXECUTIVE ORDER ON DIGITAL ASSETS DIRECTED THE PRESIDENTIAL WORKING GROUP TO MOVE FORWARD ON A CRYPTO STRATEGIC RESERVE THAT INCLUDES $XRP, $SOL, AND $ADA
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We are going to be cutting into above-trend inflation, 4.2 UE, and slowing but solid growth
Powell cautiously tees up a cut: “The balance of risks appears to be shifting.”
While labor markets remain in balance, “it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers.”
“This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”
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GBTC is spinning out the 10% of AUM and putting into the BTC mini trust. You should have mini trust shares show up in your brokerage account once it starts trading
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Fired up for this! Give us some questions
What's been driving @BitMNR's explosive growth?
Hint: It's mostly fundamental shareholder value creation.
@SeanMFarrell and I have the @fundstrat coming on the @NetworkMedici Level Up Podcast today to talk about how he's doing it. What questions should we ask him?
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Not gonna let a bum hip keep me sidelined. I have two of them!
We love ❤️ @SeanMFarrell and his dedication
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SAB 121 being overturned on a bipartisan vote, the SEC doing a last minute 180 on ETH ETFs, the FDIC chair stepping down, and a comprehensive market structure bill possibly getting a vote in the House this week. The vibe has shifted folks.
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Always great chatting with Zack. We discussed some of the outsized opportunities in the market post-election. Plz watch.
With Bitcoin setting new all-time highs near $76,000 @fundstrat Head of Digital Asset Research @SeanMFarrell tell us he's feeling even better about his $115K year-end call after the election:
"I am cool as a cucumber"
WATCH our full interview 👀⬇️
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We received numerous questions regarding CRCL. That makes sense given it's the most significant crypto IPO since COIN. Below is an excerpt from the report we sent out to clients this week. The tldr was basically: the company has challenging economics, but don't midcurve the stablecoin trade.
Key Takeaways
- Float-driven model. Roughly 98% of 2024 revenue came from interest on USDC reserves. Fee revenue is still immaterial.
- Distribution drag. ~60% of gross reserve income was paid to partners such as Coinbase in 2024. The net take rate is sensitive to how much USDC sits on Circle’s own platform (only 5.7% as of March 2025). These distribution costs are quite damaging to the company’s margins.
-Rate sensitivity. We estimate that every 25 bps cut in the reserve rate reduces 2026 EBITDA estimates by roughly $100 million dollars, holding all else equal.
-Growth offset. Faster stablecoin adoption can mitigate lower rates, but growth must equal over 10% to offset each 25 bps rate cut.
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China fiscal bazooka finally coming out
Wow.. China's out with some proper fiscal firepower:
Highest official deficit target in 30+ years
Plus...
CNY1.3 trillion in ultra-long special sovereign bonds
CNY4.4 trillion in new special local govt bonds
CNY500 billion in special sovereign bonds
These are based on a copy of the government’s annual work report seen by Bloomberg
Premier Li Qiang speaks at the top of the next hour.
bloomberg.com/news/live-blog…
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Not much confidence in where chip cos open tomorrow but if training/inference costs really went down 50x that is not bearish for AI
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Re tariffs - clearly going to the negotiating table with a loaded gun was not enough. The gun needed to be fired a few times to remind people it was lethal. Not sure the outcome here changes much, but the path/timing certainly does.
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For those keeping score the offering was initially for $600 million. Looks like the market was hungry for a potentially discounted proxy to btc
MicroStrategy Completes $800 Million Offering of Convertible Notes at 0.625% Coupon and 42.5% Conversion Premium $MSTR microstrategy.com/press/micr…
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