My keynote at BFC in NYC on the state of the $BTC market, how this bear market sets the stage for the next bull, and Metaplanet’s vision to massively grow adoption in Japan & abroad.

Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni. Straight. Fire.

The 29-yr old co-founder of MakerDAO, Nikolai Muchgian has been found dead in in San Juan #PuertoRico, just three days after tweeting the following from his personal twitter account.

so we’re just supposed to believe that every progressive talking head suddenly woke up to the fact that the sitting President is severely cognitively impaired, all at once? amazing

This is absolutely hilarious.

Every day SBF is not behind bars, it becomes increasingly clear he served as an asset for the the intelligence establishment, used to severely stain public perception & impose overreaching regulations. The meteoric ascension. The political connections. The anti PoW stance. Fed.

Max clown world. They’re applauding him. nitter.app/BowTiedBull/status/159…

*mic drop* nitter.app/BitcoinClip/status/159…

Nocoiner: “I’m too late 😞” Saylor: “lol just purchased another $2 billion $BTC at the ATH”

Still the funniest post of all time

Young lady completely exposes the fractional reserve banking system. 🔥🔥🔥 nitter.app/WallStreetSilv/status/…

Few understand.

Legend.

Kyle Bass dropping nothing but facts on CNBC.

Today I learned that the average net worth of a 30 year old in the U.S. is -$1,043. Nearly inconceivable.

They actually have no idea lol

Is anyone else getting weird vibes from CZ right now? It’s like he’s running the SBF summer playbook: Public projection of strength and talks of “industry bail outs” while attempting to raise funds. I’m not claiming anything, but the similarities are… odd.

It’s out in the open for everyone to see.

Here. We. Go.

So this is Forbes now…

gm

The CEO of Kraken everybody. @jespow, you’re a real one.

Ask yourself how Nexo is paying 10% on stablecoins while DeFi yields are 1% and short duration US Treasuries are 4.5%. Meanwhile, every counterparty in the crypto space has blown up…

#Bitcoin hash rate is going absolutely nuts. Wow.

$BTC at 35k How did we get here and what possibly comes next? A thread on macro, bitcoin on-chain and derivatives 👇👇

Medical science experts from Harvard, Johns Hopkins, and Stanford testifying before Congress: “The greatest perpetrator of misinformation during the pandemic has been the U.S. government.” The awakening. Good morning.

I’m gonna be honest I have no idea how @100trillionUSD did this but it’s some absolute wizardry (so far). Unreal.

Legend.

Why couldn’t multi-billion dollar firm @chainalysis identify that FTX user deposits were being commingled with Alameda trading wallets while randoms on Twitter could? What exactly is the point of your service again?

What if CZ just wanted SBF to admit FTX was insolvent and then he backs out of the deal...

The time it took $BTC to double after previous breaks of ATHs: Dec 2020: 18 days March 2017: 84 days Nov 2013: 10 days March 2013: 18 days

Wow.

Tell me you understand absolutely nothing about bitcoin in 60 seconds

This you?

What the hell is going on? Why is the mainstream media championing fraud?

I will learn Python in 2023. Posting here to hold myself accountable 🤝

The bad news: The entire crypto complex is unwinding in a matter of days The good news: The entire crypto complex is unwinding in a matter of days

Do you realize how crazy it’s going to get yet? nitter.app/screentimes/status/176…

Woah, credit default swaps for Credit Suisse going absolutely vertical. Insurance against the default of the $14b bank are approaching levels not seen since the Great Financial Crises.

LMFAO the World Economic Forum is listed as one of the Celsius creditors 🤣🤣🤣🤣

It’s happening. #Bitcoin

Why did China 🇨🇳 only have to ban Facebook and Google once, but has to continue to "ban" #Bitcoin over and over again? There might be a lesson there…

oh no a communist government banned #bitcoin

So SBF starts parading a few months before FTX goes bust about the need to regulate DeFi front ends, and cannot even articulate why. Spook.

Well off the top of my head, - Russian collusion - Epstein killed himself - Wuhan lab leak - Hunter Biden’s laptop - Vax prevents COVID - Vax prevents transmission - Ivermectin is horse dewormer - Men can get pregnant (lol)

The smartest hedge fund manager I know is getting outperformed on every timeframe that exists by my dumbest friend that just apes into bitcoin with every paycheck. Lesson in there.

General $BTC market outlook update: Supply distribution has started. Here's what I'm looking at and how it compares to previous cycles, and what might come next: First off, the biggest story is obviously the ETFs. $IBIT has been the most succesful ETF launch in history by a wide variety of metrics, and just looking at BlackRock + Fidelity alone, they've bought 284k BTC since launch, greater than 1% of total #bitcoin supply that will ever exist. On a net basis, including $GBTC outflows, ETFs have hoovered up ~160k BTC since launch in early January. Just massive numbers. Demand has surpassed most all initial expectations, with increasing strength into the rally ($788m of inflows from $IBIT alone yesterday amidst a -8% close from ATHs). While the bitcoin market has boomed post ETFs, nothing exists in a vacuum. For those that have been following since before the ETF, it was clear the ground work for this rally was laid over the past couple years of bear market purgatory. Various on-chain HODL metrics clearly showed all time levels of supply constraint. From the most simple to understand (i.e. '% of supply last moved in N+ years' most all hitting all time highs) or more advanced quantifications of HODL strength using the UTXO set, despite the +100% bounce from 2022 lows, net accumulation was on-going for much of 2023. However, as is tradition with the ever-cyclical $BTC market, with the rise to new heights comes the distribution of coins to new entrants from the old guard. This can clearly be seen by the change in long-term holders over the recent months. For those interested in a deeper dive on the quantification of LTHs, you can take a deeper dive here: insights.glassnode.com/quant… However, at this stage, I'd say its far from worrisome, nor by any means a red alert for bulls. New distribution (on a 30d change basis) began to occur at ~$1k in 2017 and ~$13k in 2020 during the run up to new highs, and started in early January this time around. Here's a visual of the distribution that has begun to occur. Below displays the drawdown in supply held by long-term holders from its local two peak as a percent of circulating supply. Just the start, and likely to increase as new highs are set (if current rally is sustained). A clear takeaway should be just how strong distribution can become during a raging bull market while price is still going parabolic. As new forms of demand unlock from new classes of investors that realize bitcoin did not indeed die during the previous bear, while fundamentals such as liquidity and adoption have improved, unlocked supply can be overwhelmed by newfound demand for quite a while. A local peak is reached once an increasing overhang of supply exceeds newfound demand at exceedingly high prices, the exchange rate crashes, and we repeat the whole cycle of accumulation all over again. In terms of catalyst on the horizon I am watching, there are a few obvious ones. First, it's still the early innings of ETF allocations. These passive flows from the world's largest financial institutions will continue, and are likely to grow given the immediate success of the products. Here are some of my thoughts from back in November on the impact of ETFs. All still hold true today, and admittedly my initial expectations have been far surpassed. Crazy bullish. nitter.app/DylanLeClair_/status/1… Portfolio managers and financial advisors have zero excuse to ignore the best performing asset in absolute and risk adjusted returns after the BlackRock stamp of approval and subsequent ETF rollout. You especially can't afford to ignore it when your direct industry competitors aren't ( $IBIT is currently +25% above its average volume weighted price ). There will be chasing. Secondly, the FASB accounting rule change has massive implications that have not begun to be priced in or felt by the market. Post 2020, it was only $MSTR, $SQ, $TSLA, $COIN, and some miners with $BTC exposure in public markets, which was treated as an intangible asset. It's only a matter of time until CFOs everywhere, with improved accounting standards for $BTC, begin to wake up. Saylor's $MSTR raised another $700m this morning at 0.625% in the convertible debt market. This is on top of already tapping the corporate debt market with a 0% convert and a 6% junk offering previously. You could've laughed and dismissed it all you wish during the mania of 2021. Laugh they did, yet MicroStrategy is +933% from the point they adopted a bitcoin standard, and every single debt instrument issued and equity sale facility utilized to buy $BTC is in the money. There will be copycats. While maybe not as ALL IN as Saylor's $MSTR, there WILL be copycats. Capital markets are still mispricing this transition. Corporate speculative attacks and share dilutions to acquire $BTC will occur with increasing levels of frequency and size. This is not going away. The playbook has been vindicated. After a decade+ of ZIRP financed buybacks that decapitlize corporate balance sheets that created a zombified public sector, the pendalum is going to swing back. $BTC is the new stock buyback, most companies just haven't figured it out yet. Lastly, Russia being kicked from SWIFT sent a clear signal to any not under the umbrella of USD hegemony. Multiple sovereign are currently mining BTC. Multiple are likely accumulating in secret currently as well. $BTC is running it back on a global stage, but this time around with pipes built out directly into the heart of TradFi. In summary, yes, incumbent HODLers have begun to slightly distribute, but they are currently being met by an insatiable wall of money. It's going to be a wild ride ahead. Finally, if you found any of this interesting or valuable, consider a share. 🧡🫡

Made my day ❤️

Unleash zee next crisis - Klaus Schwab & friends

PRESIDENT BIDEN WILL PROPOSE A CAPITAL GAINS TAX AS HIGH AS 43.4% FOR THE WEALTHY. Solution: Buy BTC, never sell for fiat. Strategically collateralize a small amount of BTC for USD loans, & invest/spend debasing fiat as your collateral appreciates in value. Never pay taxes.

My friend who works on Wall Street told me he trimmed his bitcoin position today to go risk off. I responded by telling him I bought more bitcoin today to go risk off.

Deputy Secretary of Defense on the DoD’s inability to pass an audit. Tax dollars hard at work.

“Bitcoin has a security budget problem, fees aren’t sufficient, it need tail emissions” “Bitcoin has a throughput problem, fees are too high, it needs bigger blocks” Your inherent desire for human intervention at every turn is exactly what bitcoin solved, please just shut up.

You have approximately three months until the U.S. Government puts into law active accumulation of bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Other sovereigns will be discreetly front running. The clock has already started.

I remember when @saylor was getting mocked for borrowing $500 million at 6% due in 2028 to buy #bitcoin with the price at 37k. Good times.

Don't mean to be the bearer of bad news here, but if it isn't clear already, if you still have funds on FTX, they're gone. You're an unsecured creditor. The probable outcome is Chapter 11 & a class action lawsuit that draws out for years, where you get $0.10-$0.30 on the dollar.

Bitcoin.

They’re going to attempt to limit/block the exit ramps to bitcoin exchanges as the banking system gets run. It’s starting.

Saylor has brought $MSTR from a $1b company in 2020 to an $80b company that holds $30b of $BTC today. Frankly the opinions of skeptics are objectively irrelevant.

Do you get it yet?

Why the $BTC pullback from 68k? There was a massive increase in BTC margined futures open interest this afternoon (traders going long BTC with BTC as collateral). No free lunch - these traders are in the process of being shaken out.

Bitcoin maximalists HODLing through the 2020s

🤣🤣🤣🤣

Bitcoin on-chain analytics on @CNBC. It's about time.

> “Trump will never acknowledge BTC” > “He won’t show at Bitcoin 2025” > “He won’t announce an SBR” > “He won’t actually Free Ross” > “The SBR won’t be BTC but ‘USA based crypto’ ” > “They won’t buy any new BTC for the SBR” > *you are here* Keep fading.

Just got off the phone with Satoshi. Bitcoin has no exposure to Silicon Valley Bank. All funds are safe.

Largest amount of $BTC short liquidations since July 2021 🔥🔥🔥

The current state of the (unofficial) FTX bankruptcy proceedings.

40 BTC reward for #Bitcoin block 840,000 WOWWWWWW

Good morning from clown world.

#Bitcoin is trading at $48,000 and throughout its entire history, there has only been one other time that the percentage of supply that hadn't moved in over a year was at this level; September 2020. Absolutely incredible.

How to get rich: •Personal Balance sheet• -Assets- | -Liabilities- | | ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ ₿ | $$$$$ |

Traditional education is dead.

"I don't feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough... I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don't find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough." - SF Fed President Mary Daly

Guys, if you still have bitcoin on exchanges at this point I don’t know what to tell you. Withdraw.

The Federal Reserve system has 2,500 full time employees, 400 of whom are PhDs in economics/finance, and every single one of them was wrong about inflation.

A case study of propaganda in a technocratic oligarchy.

BREAKING: The market capitalization of #Bitcoin has made a new all time high. 🚀🚀🚀

Good morning.

"If only I bought bitcoin in 2011, I would be so rich." No, you likely wouldn't be. You would've probably sold early because you were scared, just like you probably are today. Holding through multiple 80% corrections takes an insane level of conviction and mental fortitude.

Happy Saturday.

65k yesterday: WE ARE SO BACK 65k now: it’s literally so over

It feels like people don't yet quite understand what a red sweep means for Bitcoin...

F***ING LEGEND 🤣 #Bitcoin

This no counterparty-risk magic internet money thing is starting to make a little more sense now, isn’t it?

$BTC futures funding rates are the lowest we've ever seen during a break of the previous all time high. This is going to get insane.

BlockFi has filed with the SEC to launch a spot #Bitcoin ETF

“With legal tender, they scam you with the inflationary tax… #Bitcoin is the natural reaction against central bank scammers; to make money private again.” - Javier Milei, President of Argentina 🇦🇷🇦🇷

Analysis on $MSTR Preferred Stock Target Raise *MicroStrategy to Target a Capital Raise of Up to $2 Billion of Preferred Stock* link: assets.contentstack.io/v3/as… (Very long post, trigger warning) First, what is a preferred stock? If you want a good primer, here's a @PrestonPysh video from 12 years ago going through the basics: piped.video/MEMMVBJuJ7s?si=vvxf… So what is a 'Perpetual' preferred stock, and what might it mean for $MSTR?? TLDR: A perpetual preferred stock is a hybrid financial instrument that combines features of debt and equity, offering fixed dividend payments with no maturity date. It sits between debt and common stock on a company's capital structure, meaning preferred shareholders are paid dividends before common shareholders (no dividends for common shareholders in this case) but after debt holders. In liquidation, they also have priority over common stockholders. While preferred shareholders usually lack voting rights, they benefit from a more stable income stream and greater security in dividend payments. This structure allows companies to raise capital without diluting voting control (!!!!!), while offering investors a balance of income and relative safety. The most important thing to understand is that as the preferred stock is perpetual, there is no lump sum principal repayment. There will be an annual dividend, and depending on the rate it is issued at, it is equivalent to pulling forward 10-20 years of buying power. At a 5% rate, you are essentially pulling forward 20 years of cash. So lets dive into the profile of preferreds: Preferred stocks are low volatility, and provide less upside than common equity typically. Banks, Utility companies, REITs, etc. For some numbers: Globally, there is 3,488 issues of preferred stock worth over $1m outstanding. On average, $555m per issue, worth approximately $1.93 trillion in aggregate. More specifically, if we narrow it down to parameters that match where $MSTR likely targets, there are currently 306 securities that check the following boxes: - Exchange listed - Perpetual - U.S. listed issuer - $378m avg. value per issue - $115.69 billion in aggregate across 306 issues - Avg. initial dividend rate of 6.283% So who is the target buyer for preferred stock? - Insurance companies - Pension funds - Mutual funds - Banks Notably, preferred stock can be held as Tier 1 or Tier 2 capital on bank balance sheets under Basel III banking regulations. Preferred stocks are low volatility, low performance, income generating securities. Shown below is the 60-day historical volatility of a preferred stock index. 10% volatility, or about 1/10th of $MSTR currently. This will be the first time we are seeing what falls under the '$MSTR Dividend*' category that MicroStrategy teased on its Q3 earnings presentation. Slide 29: assets.contentstack.io/v3/as… However, there is an extremely important advantage that $MSTR has compared to nearly all other preferred issuers: Volatility. (Not to mention subsequent common stock liquidity, performance, and $BTC exposure) "The perpetual preferred stock may include features such as (i) convertibility to our class A common stock." - MSTR Preferred Stock filing assets.contentstack.io/v3/as… What $MSTR can provide to fixed income investors is an indefinite $BTC backed call option Let's do some option math: The value of MSTR calls options with the market implied vol (87%), based on a reference price of $332 per share of $MSTR : +50% out of the money: - 1-year expiry: $89.56 (26.36% of price today) - 5-year expiry: $222.13 (65.4%) - 10-year expiry: $286.28 (84.28%) - 20-year expiry: $326.42 (96.10%) Now, let's do something much MUCH further out of the money, just for the sake of the example. The value of +500% (!) out of the money calls options with the market implied vol (87%), based on a reference price of $332 per share of $MSTR : - 1-year expiry: $20.93 (6.16% of price today) - 5-year expiry: $140.97 (41.50%) - 10-year expiry: $243.16 (71.59%) - 20-year expiry: $314.73 (92.66%) Are you starting to understand how valuable an indefinite call option on a ~90% volatility $BTC beta stock can be for fixed income investors?? The right tail 'risk" is massive for an indefinite call option on a hyper-volatile stock. The path forward for Saylor and Co. is selling volatility, this time, to preferred stock investors. It's not debt that has to be paid down outside of the annual dividend, and even if we generously assume they pay an average preferred rate of ~6% (I would bet they fetch below average), that would only be $120m per year in dividends on a $2 billion raise, for a company that raised > $15b in equity capital alone in 2024. Non-issue. We have no idea what the pricing will look like i.e. where $MSTR will place the strike, or what the initial dividend rate will be, so we are just sort of approximating for now. I can't see $MSTR issuing preferred without a conversion option at some ratio to common stock. After-all, volatility is THE product, and BTC Yield is the Key Performance Indicator. The indefinite optionality is THE most interesting product that MSTR can sell to the fixed income market. Thus, given the immense theoretical value of the imbedded indefinite call, it might make sense to apply a conversion ratio less than 1.0 for every preferred share to common. Something like 0.50, or 0.20 conversion into common for every share of preferred for a conversion ratio (i.e 2 or 5 shares of preferred stock convert into 1 share of common stock) could make sense; but again, we can't know until its been priced and placed. But what we do know is how much Saylor and team emphasize the value of volatility. "Volatility is vitality." The treasury team has spoken at length about selling volatility (only through convert issues thus far) and recycling the proceeds back into BTC. This selling of volatility is how they take the preferred market by storm. Using our example from above, if an $MSTR call option was striked +500% out of the money (approx $2000/share currently), with 5 shares of preferred converting to 1 share of common stock, the theoretical call option in each preferred share (with a 10-year expiry just for the sake of the math) would be $48.63 of value. For just the option, nevermind the dividend paying component of the preferred share (!!!!). Now, instead of 10 years make it indefinite... The most interesting thing to watch for will be the provisions that the conversion contains in the preferred offering. In the past, when $MSTR has issued convertible bonds, the bond has contained all sorts of provisions for the convertible component; a put option imbedded for the buyer of the debt, a call option that $MSTR can redeem if the bonds rise past a certain value after a period of time, etc. I posted some of that theoretical math here: nitter.app/DylanLeClair_/status/1… The point of all these provisions is to essentially cap the upside and the downside of the convertible option. The imbedded 5-6 year call option in the convertible debt is purposefully neutered, because the convert buyers aren't actually interested in the directional exposure. These convert arb desks are in the business of 'gamma-trading', as they look to delta hedge out their exposure almost instantly. Nevermind exposure for six years, not even six months, weeks or days. These buyers hedge exposure on day 1. So, they neutralize the value of the call so as to target something like approx 50% delta, so for every $1 billion of bonds that are issued, the convert bond arbitrage desks will short sell something like $500m of equity to lock in immediate gains. But, the preferred stock could be a bit different. Given the indefinite nature of the option (read: PERPETUAL preferred), an uncapped call would hold EXTREME value, even if the call was striked laughably far out of the money, given the immense volatility and time value of the option (as laid out above). Stepping back, the preffered market is just a relative larger scale than converts. For scale, the total size of the convert market in the United States for listed securities is 1,360 bonds worth $302 billion, compared to $572 billion in total for all preferred stock. However, narrowing the parameters to what $MSTR is looking for: a 0% coupon issue attractive to arb desks is a much smaller market. There is a total of $50 billion of zero coupon convertible debt for listed companies in the United States. $MSTR is already far and away the largest and most active issuer in this market. Time to level up to a larger pool of capital. The market for preferred stock in the U.S. is large, and the allocator class is entirely different, with much deeper pockets. A question to all preferred stock buyers by forced mandate: Would you like exposure to a random tranche of the thousandth largest regional bank, Utility companies, and/or REITs, or would you like low volatility, high sharpe ratio upside exposure to the world's preeminent Bitcoin Treasury Company? No comparison. So, what's it all mean? In essence, $BTC has infiltrated the fixed income market; and the dreaded uncertainty (read: volatility) that every smug TradFi allocator spent the past 15 years making fun of, is the very reason that these $MSTR preferreds will likely be the top performing preferred security in the market before long, just like the $MSTR converts and the common stock have been. $MSTR bears have no idea what just hit them. Oh, and don't get me started on the potential BTC Yield here... END/

HOLY The #Bitcoin hash rate is going absolutely bonkers.

Destroyed.

Fun fact, If you started daily dollar cost averaging #bitcoin at the $69,000 all time high, your ROI is +0.21% despite the current drawdown of -34%.

All Roger Ver had to do was legitimately nothing, and he’d be set for 100,000 lifetimes. Fast forward five years and he’s defaulting on a margin account after going bust on a leveraged position on a dead fork chain. Unreal.

The FTX exploiter, who has been dumping all other drained assets for ETH, is now one of the largest holders in the world, with 228,523 ETH ($284.82m) currently in their wallet. Everyone should keep an extremely close eye on what happens next...

“The government could just ban bitcoin” They can’t even ban XRP lmaooooo

BREAKING: #Bitcoin hash rate has made a new all time high. A little over six months following the China mining ban, the #Bitcoin Network is stronger than ever before.

Beautiful

In all fairness your honor my client was in goblin mode

Okay hear me out, the $BTC order book is so illiquid that if we all dig through our couch cushions and punt our spare change we can send to $1,000,000 in one candle. Who’s with me?