Personal Update: I am very proud to announce I'm launching the @_checkonchain Newsletter on Substack! After 6 years studying and educating folks on the power of #Bitcoin onchain data, it's time to put my skills to the test. Our first edition is live! checkonchain.substack.com/ 🧵

2013 #Bitcoin Fractal. Sell-off was pre-recorded in the simulation.

Welcomed a new Bitcoiner into the world on blockheight 913,569. Actual magic.

Turns out the SEC was behind all the market manipulation after all.

This is the best tweet you have ever compiled. Welcome home, Peter.

If you have been in Bitcoin for a cycle or more before today, you have experienced a once in a lifetime event. You built the conviction to hold an asset which the entire world told you was destined for nothing. Literally everyone said you were wrong, at scale. That character building dynamic, is no longer the case. Wall Street, government policy, and even the media is at minimum less negative, but mostly now positive. Building conviction in Bitcoin now is easy, folks just pass off responsibility to their money manager. If you stood the hardcore test of building, forming, challenging, and reshaping your conviction over years, amidst the most hostile social environment against Bitcoin we will probably ever see, well done. Yes the asset is awesome. But the lessons you learned, and the trust you now have in your own decisions and ability to reason, cannot be replicated. You lived a once in a lifetime experience. Put it to work in your life, and make it better.

Australia is in trouble.

When was the last time you recall Bitcoin being down less than-1% when equities had puked -5% on the day?

Today is a strange one. Gold down Corn down Equities down US Dollar down Yields down Oil down wtf are people buying, bonds?

Thanks for the cheap sats, anon. $BTC sent straight to cold storage, just like all of these coins. Love me a good ol divergence. Let it run as hot and deep as you want, the reversal will be swift and powerful. Have seen this movie before.

#Bitcoin is trading around $44k, a level which was the absolute zenith of on-chain mania in Jan 2021. Old hands were spending coins at huge profit multiples, lighting up the Value Days Destroyed Multiple by @TXMCtrades like a Xmas tree. Here we are at $44k, and barely a squeak. Not even at 2019 levels. HODLers are not relinquishing their coins. They demand higher prices. studio.glassnode.com/workben…

Equal an opposite. For every buyer, there are sellers. A bunch of existing #Bitcoin holders just sold at least 51,780 $BTC As breathtaking as it is, I admit that I'd like to see an entity that isn't Saylor on the bid side. Increasingly feeling my gut disliking this situation.

The Bitcoin Realised Cap just hit $1 Trillion This is the ultimate metric for adoption, as it captures the wealth and capital saved in BTC. An absolutely massive milestone.

#Bitcoin Shrimp (< 1 $BTC) 🦐 are stacking sats at a rate of 33.8k $BTC per month. Issuance 🔵 is ~27.0k $BTC/mth For every 1 new coin, Shrimp are taking 1.25 off the market. Crazy conviction on display.

I know it is forbidden to post anything bullish on #Bitcoin right now, but I'm gonna do it anyway. 🔵 Illiquid supply is at an all-time high 🟠Liquid supply is demonstrating maturation as coins from $30k-$40k grow grey beards 🔴Highly Liquid supply is at a multi-year low.

Folks, the level of destruction in altcoins land, is FTX grade. Coins have been shown to be no bid when the market makers switch off, no serious investor can own them, and it just nuked the few retail traders remaining If you think altseason is coming now, Id suggest a rethink.

#Bitcoin Long-Term Holders have distributed $60B worth of supply in the last 30-days. Out of all the LTH supply moved since the FTX bottom, 21% of it has happened in November. This is the heaviest profit taking we have seen so far this cycle.

After FTX imploded, I will never forget the feeling of: 'Price is down, but my Bitcoin is in cold storage. A nuisance, but I'm fine, lost nothing, and price will come back in no time'. Exact same feeling right now. Be cautious, but old wisdom applies: Stay humble, stack sats.

The volume of #Bitcoin younger than 1 month has hit an all-time-low of less than 7% of circ. supply. In other-words, the volume of coins older than 1 month is at an all-time-high. The HODL is very real Old coins are not being spent Young coins are maturing This is bullish.

At the very least, one should be expecting a #Bitcoin bounce right around now. STH-SOPR has fallen below 1, which means top-buyers are spending their $BTC at a realised loss. When top buyers capitulate, it is historically a local bottom.

Binance was by far the largest receiving exchange for $BTC through H1 2021. Outflows have commenced. The supply squeeze is coming. Beras are too bera.

Bitcoin is working its way through a very dense supply cluster between $93k and $100k. Pretty much blue skies above 100.

Spot. Driven. Rally.

Bought #Bitcoin because I literally cannot understand why anyone would be selling it. If it trades lower, I will repeat next week. The supply squeeze is coming.

Is there a more bullish looking price chart than #Bitcoin on the planet right now?

#Bitcoin Long-Term Holders are adding to their balance at an annualised rate of 7.6x issuance. With ~900 $BTC in mined issuance per day, this means around 6,840 $BTC moving into LTH storage daily. Check out this metric in the Week Onchain newsletter. glassno.de/3I8MSBS

I'm not sure what #Bitcoin bears are going to do with this information, but a clean retest of the STH Realised Price is about as good as it gets for bull market support. If this bounce grows legs, it starts to look quite a lot like 2017. Psychology on-chain. It works well.

In one move, the US Government has demonstrated that they OWN #Ethereum DeFi. Folks, us all a favour, ditch the move to Proof-of-Stake so you don't hand consensus to them as well. That way, you will live to fight many more days Unless a regulated chain is what you want fro NGU

My base case for this Bitcoin cycle is that there is no cycle. The lines between bull & bear will become blurred, and folks will lose sight of when the 'cycle' started and ended. Pattern recognition based on previous cycle won't be as clear cut. Investor behaviour dictates all.

Markets need to go down to go up. The sooner you understand this, the better off you will be.

Folks seem extremely confused by the #Bitcoin cash and carry trade, and how it affects market structure. It is the same mechanism in calendar expiring futures and perpetual swap funding rates, and it is a delta neutral strategy. Let me explain how this works: - Funding rates are currently positive (+10% annualised) which tells us that traders are willing to pay an interest rate for the privilege of being long via leverage. - The same is true for calendar futures on the CME, which trade at a premium to spot. - This opens up an arbitrage opportunity, where a trader can long spot (or ETFs), but then short the futures. - For perpetual swaps, the yield is dynamic and volatile. For calendar futures it is fixed and expires at a certain date. Traders can then roll that onto the next contract. - The position is neutral with respect to price risk as it is long spot, short futures. They are not going to be liquidated unless they mess up their collateral or strategy. - Such positions add buy side to spot and ETFs, and short side to futures. Overall, this adds depth, volume and liquidity to Bitcoin markets, but is relatively neutral on market impact. - This is a natural and normal part of market structure. It exists for every asset with a futures market, and every asset that reaches meaningful size will have a futures market. You can't stop it, it won't go away, but you should understand it. Too many folks are confused thinking the spot price is being suppressed by these shorts. The entire reason this trade exists is because people are net bullish, long, and pushing futures prices higher. What is really missing is a serious impulse of non-arbitrage demand to overwhelm spot sell-side from HODLers and existing holders.

#Bitcoin Short Term Holder supply has reached an equal all-time-low of 20%. This means that less than 20% of all circulating $BTC have transacted within the last ~5 months. Given the accumulation we observed last time we were at $30k-$40k, this trend is likely to continue.

Stacking sats in one chart. Holders of < 1 $BTC how own 5.1% of the total coin supply, and the trend is pp and to the right. My favourite trend in the entire #Bitcoin ledger. #Bitcoin is for the little guy. Keep stacking 🌽

Has #Bitcoin ever schooled anyone for arrogance as quickly as Do Kwon? Ive never seen justice served this quickly. A complete annihilation of their $BTC balance, sold at a loss, plus supporters fleeced of hundreds of millions, and LUNA credibility shot, all in a few short hours

Gold is the new Silver.

#Bitcoin is $3,000 below ATH and retail is still nowhere to be seen.

You have to admit, its fucking uncanny...right!? Exact same spot. #Bitcoin

Stacked sats. Folks selling below $100k are insane.

Never sell the majority of your #Bitcoin. However, don't be a fool and HODL to the grave. You only get one shot at life, and if you're not using your savings to make it the best life you can, what is the fucking point? #Bitcoin makes your life better, don't waste it.

Blame the #Bitcoin $68k gang. They sold 198k BTC in November.

The magnitude of bearishness on this platform, with Bitcoin less than 9% off the top wick of a fresh ATH, shows that not enough people actually own spot Bitcoin. Whatever else you own which is down 50%+, I'd wager that is the likely cause for the bad mood.

Bitcoiners are sitting on $1.3 Trillion worth of unrealised profit, based on the acquisition price of their onchain BTC. Berkshire Hathaway's Market Cap is $1 Trillion. Rat poison squared. GG.

Most of us have seen far worse. Stay humble. #Bitcoin

It has been unprofitable to hold $ETH over $BTC for 2,113 days, which is 62% of its trading history. Unless you were around in 2016 til mid-2017, or bought the bottom in 2019-20, you would have been better holding the orange rock. Brutal.

M2 money supply charts are the new balance on exchanges.

Nuclear is the safest, cleanest, and highest density energy humanity has discovered. We should be a world leader on it, training world class engineers. Instead, we have politicians, without a second of training in physics, making decisions they are highly unqualified to make.

#Bitcoin 100k. Unreal

Notice how #Bitcoin once again sold off before all other macro markets? It is a truly free market and increasingly the one asset to pay maximal attention too. It is the only one that has no central bank put, no bail outs, and everyone plays by the same rules The truth machine.

Bitcoin only.

Prediction: $BTC is about to decouple from the stock market. It has buyers. It has a different set of fundamentals. It has its own supply and demand rhythm. Hodlers are not priced in.

Funding Rates are negative on this move higher. You just love to see it.

In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings. They are anchored around the trends in adoption and market structure, with the 2017 top, and 2022 bottom being the transition points 🔴 Retail early adoption 🟠 Wild West, Boom & Bust (with leverage) 🔵 Institutional maturity and stability Pick your mean reversion model, and they all have the same transition points, and change in character. Things changed after the 2022 bear market, and folks who assume the past will repeat, likely miss the signal because they are looking at the historical noise.

#Bitcoin ETF flows yesterday +$479M ETH all time ETF Flows -$493M I'm truthfully shocked at how little demand there is. I'd thought it would at least be 10% of Bitcoin, but it's just non existent. Impressive tbh.

Few reasons: - at $1M the market cap is $20T and approaching golds size. - Saylor buying 15k coins for $1.4B is 12,860x smaller than the $18T market cap change needed. - Spot sellers are consistently underestimated. 10k coins aged 6m or more moved yesterday alone, and that is considered a slow day. - approx 30% of all onchain volume is a deposit to an exchange, so assume 3kBTC per day sold vs saylors 15k BTC buy is 5 days of spot sell pressure from long term holders. - that ignores the short term traders who are as large, so add an additional 3k BTC per day sell side. As it turns out, people sell lots of bitcoin every single day, and one large bidder just isn't enough to squeeze the price up to gold parity overnight.

#Bitcoin is the most loved and hated, desired and detested, revered and feared asset in history. All it does is keep a very secure ledger of who owned what and when.

Anyone who thinks the 2023-25 Bitcoin cycle has 'sucked', has completely unrealistic expectations. This cycle has been absolutely epic; with two back to back 100%+ years, the most successful ETF launch in history, over half a trillion in capital flowing in, and tagging $2T MCap.

#Bitcoin Mayer Multiple, which is one of my absolute favourite metrics, has fallen to 0.75. Historically speaking, MM values this low have only ever occurred for 15% of Bitcoin's life. That means 85% probability of oversold. Keep it simple. Live Chart: studio.glassnode.com/workben…

It will take another 118 years to mine the last 2M $BTC. Around half of all miners are now located in the Americas, many with mandates to HODL all mined coins, selling equity and debt instead. The majority of $BTC you buy comes from the hands of other players now. Good Luck.

I believe all of the following are true RE Bitcoin markets: 🔸The price is manipulated by whales and traders... 🔸...but only on smaller time-frames. 🔸Paper Bitcoin exists in derivatives markets... 🔸...but this is expected and necessary for maturity. 🔸There are probably unbacked exchanges out there... 🔸...but you've never heard of them. 🔸Coinbase and the ETFs have the coins... 🔸...and the real risk is how f**kn many they have. 🔸The price is suppressed... 🔸...by heavy selling in spot markets. 🔸All of this is how normal markets function... 🔸...and no follow up point was needed. Chill out, stay humble, and stack sats.

Nobody ever sells their Bitcoin...they said. It was all paper Bitcoins...they said.

Even with these fresh #Bitcoin ATHs, the distance between price and the 200DMA is still cooled off. The Mayer Multiple Z-Score is only just above 0, meaning we're near the long-term average (with plenty of room to run). Love to see it.

The key difference about this #Bitcoin ATH run, is that now it's undeniable. A force of nature, and every critic is in shambles. You're either onboard, or wrong now.

Remember when all those folks told you the Long-Term Holders never sell their $BTC? Yeh, they lied to you. Largest revived supply volumes since the 2018 bottom, and the BCH hard-fork (aka the biggest volume of old coins taking profit in a bull market ever).

Morally bankrupt.

Are they still suppressing the price? Does this cycle still suck? Or have you worked out it was just your boredom and high time preference?

Just keep stackin sats. 21m points out there, nobody can print more, and everyone's on the same scoreboard Keep chipping away at that next million sats, take self custody, stay solvent, and keep learning. Bitcoin is fucking awesome, and it's better than all this fiat nonsense.

Turns out the US government, who was never going to buy Bitcoin, has now stated that they are not going to buy Bitcoin (but they will take it off you). If trusting the government to pump your bags was part of your investment thesis, there is a lesson to be learned in here.

Harden up folks. #Bitcoin

Remember folks, words by politicians are worth less than the air that carries them. What matters are the actions, and the results.

#Bitcoin has entered the Euphoria zone, by convincingly breaking through the previous cycles ATH However, it is doing so with a relatively cooled down MVRV Ratio The 8-months of chopsolidation allowed investors to acclimate to higher prices, forming a firm foundation for launch

The messages everyone should hear: 1) HODLers absolutely do sell, ignore folks telling you otherwise. 2) there is no 'supply shock' as a result. High prices create sellers. 3) The #bitcoin market has absorbed $227B in sell side and is knocking on $100k (demand is impressive)

Folks, #Bitcoin just absorbed a 50k $BTC market sell order in a few weeks. It dipped ~25%, in a very structured and orderly correction. Last time something like this happened was LUNA selling ~80k $BTC and price dropped from $46k to $25k, and soon after to $17k Not the same 🐂

Food for thought. Did #Bitcoin ever leave the bear market that started in May? Did we just witness the first ATH within a bear market? If so, let me pose to you a question --> if we could achieve ATH with only the dedicated HODLers in play, what happens WHEN the mob arrives?

This is not what an over-leveraged, long-biased, degenerate #Bitcoin market looks like.

Great read, aligns with The Great Rotation idea I've covered over recent months The sell-side pressure exerted by existing Bitcoin holders is tremendous Avg spent coin-age this cycle is 100-days, up from 30-days typical. The buyers, are patient, sophisticated, and very large.

There have only been 12 days where Bitcoin has closed at a higher price. Almost all green.

Gold & Bitcoin. Sit tight.

Welcome to the banana zone folks. How good.

Here it is folks, introducing Cointime Economics for #Bitcoin. This is the culmination of 18-months collaboration between @dpuellARK and myself, where we developed a new economic framework for $BTC. We relate the dimensions of time and supply, in an abstract, yet elegant way.

Before you react to large wallet inflow data, ask yourself: Why would a very wealthy holder, wait until the very last red candle, and then send a huge sum to exchanges that they KNOW will be seen and engagement farmed? Are they dumb? Or are they playing chess. #Bitcoin

Crypto is a joke.

Is this #Bitcoin rally driven by leverage, or by spot demand? A 🧵thread showing just how un-levered the $BTC market is, and why spot is likely in charge. The amount of open interest relative to market cap, and exchange spot balance is trending lower. as is coin-margin.

#Bitcoin Short-Term Holders puked out so many coins yesterday, they locked in losses at a similar scale to when FTX collapsed.

If Trump had won in 2020, he wouldn't have had the time to regroup, and form the support and team he has today. It also allowed just enough time to pass under the previous administration, where quality of life measurably declined. Winning 2024, is the better result.

The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is **still** not widely appreciated, but it has been THE source of resistance. Not manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not suppression. Just good old fashioned sellers. Also, it won't become irrelevant.

-24% and folks are shitting themselves. Love to see it.

Now this is something I have been working on for a very long time. If you want serious edge in this market, pay attention to the beating heart of the chain. A full blown masterclass to learn how to properly apply each metric is coming in hot soon after. checkonchain.com/

We are about to witness nation states under immense stress due to their inability to print ENERGY. I hope we can all now see #Bitcoin mining, and the scarce energy it consumes, is what makes it so secure and resistant against states. They can print money, still can't forge work

Amazon down 10% after hours... The largest equities in the world are trading like shitcoins, wiping out tens to hundreds of billions in single candles. Meanwhile, the ultra volatile stablecoin #Bitcoin remains worth $40k, and the bears still can't set a lower low.

This is precisely what I want to see for #Bitcoin Acceleration of wallets < 1BTC Keep stacking sats.

Pretty doomy out there. Meanwhile, #Bitcoin Shrimp, Crabs, and Fish (wallets < 100 $BTC) are adding to their balance at a rate of 248% times the amount freshly minted by miners. Sharks (100 to 1k $BTC) adding an additional 38%. Coins are coming out of exchanges. Halving is ~310 days away.

Bitcoin is an asset with no intrinsic value! Bitcoin:

🟢

Unreal...Feb 2024 printed a $19.84k #Bitcoin candle, the largest monthly USD increase in history. This added $390B to the #Bitcoin market cap... Up a remarkable 47%.

A pattern

The irresponsibly long MSTR group is remarkably, extremely, desperately salty and bearish. Kind of intriguing, since their absolute, bulletproof euphoria in November was the literal pico top.

Almost 100% of Short-Term Holder supply is now underwater and holding losses. This represents over 25% of the Bitcoin supply. We have now reached the lower bound of the $75k to $86k 'air-pocket' I started describing back in December. Wild times folks. Sit tight.

78% of all ETH/BTC trading days now in the red...

Being opposed to Bitcoin because you don't like it, isn't edgy. It's uninformed, and amateur.

Some guy foolishly just sold me a bunch of his #Bitcoin at sub $20k. He sees red candles and fear, I see $BTC trading below the Realized Price, and at levels that are unbelievably undervalued. Thanks mate, I will look after the sats, better than you did.