I've watched @amanpour on TV for decades. So I was grateful for the opportunity to sit down with her for 15 minutes. Our interview aired on @CNN this weekend. We talked China policy, Trump's approach, and why this decade is the decisive decade in the competition.

Is that really the CEO of TikTok sitting next to the next Director of National Intelligence — Tulsi Gabbard — at President Trump’s inauguration? Evidently, yes.

The TikTok deal is looking like a complete surrender by the admin. And it may even be illegal. If true, the US will let Beijing determine what appears on the news feeds of 180 million US TikTok users. Not quite America first. Even advisors to the deal are renouncing it!

China is emerging as a global public goods provider as the US proves unable and unwilling to lead. This is an important development, and if the trend continues, it’s one with potentially serious consequences for the US role in the world.

The destruction of DOD’s Office Net Assessment is an enormous mistake. This was a little-known but enormously consequential fifty year-old institution that actually thought long-term. It helped us win the Cold War, grasped the China challenge early, and figured out revolutions in warfare. The PRC was obsessed with it for good reason (see below). When I was at the NSC, ONA produced some of the best analysis anywhere in the USG and had enormous and even historic policy impact. No other institution presently can do what it did. Ending it is another unforced error.

NEW in @ForeignAffairs: Kurt Campbell and I argue that any serious China strategy must start with an old truth: “Quantity is a quality all its own.” • Scale matters • China has it • We get it only through a new grand strategy of allied scale We hang together—or separately.

Serbian President: "The only country that can help us is China." “By now, you all understood that European solidarity does not exist. That was a fairy tale on paper. I believe in my brother and friend Xi Jinping, and I believe in Chinese help." 1/

China is winning the trade war. They have strong cards, but the truth is the Trump team inadvertently helped them. Per the @WSJ, the reason China massively escalated in the last 36 hours is because it believes Trump will fold - just as he did on magnets - without reaching for any US leverage in response. That is why - in a remarkable break from past run-ups to big summits - they've gone all-in on the trade war just three weeks before the meeting: 1⃣ Sweeping declaration of control over the entire global tech supply chains that goes far beyond "small yard, high fence" 2⃣ New port fees on US ships 3⃣ New Qualcomm probe Per Lenin, “If you encounter mush, advance; if you encounter steel, retreat." They believe they have repeatedly encountered mush. The American approach has been unserious. We launched a trade war without preparation, without allies, and without reducing our own vulnerabilities. So we are losing. The Trump team still has cards it could play to reset the baseline. And Beijing is wrong to back Trump into a corner. Lots of uncertainty ahead.

Incredible quote from my friend @Liza_D_Tobin

The new acting Undersecretary of State for public diplomacy — State’s top public diplomacy official: 1) not only denies the Uyghur genocide but appears to applaud it 2) says the US should sell out Taiwan to China for concessions in Antarctica (???)

NEW: In the Sunday @nytopinion, Kurt Campbell and I argue America alone can’t match China’s scale. With "allied scale," it’s no contest. But if Trump keeps alienating US partners, we'll never get there—and the next century will be China's to lose.

As Americans flood Xiaohongshu, we're seeing a lot more direct online interaction between US and PRC citizens. But the PRC has not always welcomed that, which is partly why it has banned foreign social media. So Xiaohongshu's recent success is also a test for PRC authorities.

This threat to India just a day after Trump extends a trade truce with China and thanks them for selling us rare earth magnets. The Trump doctrine is to be tougher on allies and partners than on adversaries.

It’s time to ban Zhao Lijian from Twitter. Rarely has one PRC official done so much damage to the US-China relationship. He’s actively complicating any kind of cooperative approach on coronavirus. And of course, he’s spreading disinformation.

TikTok had 268 days to sell itself so it wasn’t operated by China. That would have solved everything. But they didn’t even try. China wouldn’t let them. Now, with time short, they want Biden to ignore a bipartisan law SCOTUS upheld 9-0. If they shut down, it’s on them.

This statement from China’s ambassador to the UK amounts to saying, “Accept Huawei or you’ll become our enemy.” If this kind of threat is common *before* the PRC is deeply embedded in the UK’s critical infrastructure, it’s pretty clear how they’ll act *after*.

In today's @nytopinion, I argue that there is a bipartisan consensus on China but that Trump is outside it. If he returns, he will again undermine it by putting self-interest first. That could cost the US the decisive decade in the competition. Thread and link below:

These ties between Patel and SHEIN are truly shocking. Especially amid reports that DOJ/FBI is going to reduce focus on PRC influence efforts in the US.

Logging on for the first time in months to share some exciting news! My first book, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, will be out July 8, 2021. amazon.com/Long-Game-Strateg…

“Trust me, bro” is not an argument. Business insiders have used government to make money for literally millennia. Crony capitalism dates back to Ancient Rome. Spare us the moral outrage for being held accountable.

It is superpower suicide to stop the best foreign minds from coming to the United States and using their talents to propel American prosperity and technological advantage.

Excited to share a new piece in FP! I argue ODNI's claim that China prefers Trump "not win reelection" tells only half the story. Party texts show China believes Trump is accelerating US decline. This has triggered a new phase in PRC grand strategy. 1/ foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/12…

By publicly punishing the Houston Rockets, the PRC may have scored an own goal. They’ve raised public awareness of the myriad ways the PRC effectively censors the speech of US citizens. People didn’t really know that was happening. Now they do, and they don’t seem to like it.

The PRC planned to close Nexperia and move production to China. They’ve done this repeatedly after acquiring US companies (including a US rare earth magnet manufacturer). The Dutch government did the right thing. And China’s coercive response reveals the shape of Pax Sinica.

“Reincarnation must comply with Chinese laws & regulations” - Deputy Director General, Information Department, PRC MFA

This is the path to deindustrialization, decline, and defeat. American competitors in China don’t do buybacks. They invest.

I can’t say I’m totally surprised. I wrote about the risk that President Trump might seek to do deals with China - even those that trade away American interests - in the New York Times last October. Link and thread below.

“Wisconsin Senate President Roth received two emails from Chinese consulate staff asking that he pass a resolution they wrote supporting China’s battle against COVID-19 praising China’s response to the virus.” wisconsinexaminer.com/2020/0…

Beijing sent a list of 14 grievances to Australia supposedly justifying its economic coercion against it. The list is revealing. It shows the PRC holds countries responsible for their free *civil societies* & serves as a template for illiberal order-building. Some thoughts: 1/

The PRC complains about US technology restrictions. It calls them containment. But then it reportedly imposes its own restrictions on a Taiwanese company building iPhones in India — presumably to slow India’s emergence as a manufacturing power.

Why hasn’t China built a successful jetliner despite decades of investment? In part, it’s because Western companies have been more careful not to transfer their IP to PRC partners.

A deal that accepts PRC industrial policy in exchange for American commodity exports is a recipe for deindustrialization and decline.

“Zhou Ming, renowned as the mastermind behind key industrial software used in planes such as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A380, has left his leadership role at US-based global engineering giant Altair to return to China.”

The PRC is throttling India's efforts to become a global manufacturer. Xi Jinping explained why five years ago in Qiushi. 实体经济是基础，各种制造业不能丢，作为14亿人口的大国，粮食和实体产业要以自己为主，这一条绝对不能丢。 Or roughly: "The real economy is the foundation, and we must not lose our various manufacturing industries. As a major country with a population of 1.4 billion, we must primarily rely on ourselves for both food and the real economy — this is a line we must never cross."

India overtook China as the leading supplier of smartphones to the US. Still much more to do, but there really is a path to “allied scale.”

Today is the launch date for my first book, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order! The book covers the evolution of China’s grand strategy from the end of the Cold War to the present. It's also number 1 in IR new releases! amazon.com/Long-Game-Strateg…

h/t an eagle-eyed friend who texted me this photo

It's pretty remarkable that China may be able to position itself as the global leader in the coronavirus fight after (1) covering up the disease; (2) lying about its origins; (3) buying up surplus supplies; and (4) delaying the intl response. And yet... 5/

Big deal today. The US, Canada, and Finland just launched an allied industrial policy effort on icebreakers: "ICE Pact" The US needs icebreakers. - Russia has 30+. - China has 3 and is building more. - The US basically has 1. ICE Pact aims to fix that. A few details:

Some good news: 3M is now producing 1 million N95 masks *in the US* a day. But: 1) Official estimates say we need 1 billion+ masks to handle this crisis, and 3M won't get us near that; 2) It'll take 12 months to double capacity. We still need industrial mobilization.

The Trump administration should stop this.

Vance is right that America needs to bring back manufacturing. But that’s a reason to support Harris. The data is clear. - Manufacturing spending is skyrocketing. - TSMC is making chips in America. - Record energy production. The Biden-Harris industrial policy is working.

There is no good reason for this meeting with TikTok’s CEO. The data points that Trump 2.0 might favor deals with China over strengthening the American competitive position are getting harder to dismiss.

This is a must-watch interview about a must-read book. Apple was investing $55 billion *annually* in China by 2015. That’s one CHIPS Act a year, every year.

Excited to share a new piece with Kurt Campbell in @ForeignAffairs! It argues that China is racing to be seen as the global leader of the coronavirus response as the US falters. China knows that orders can change gradually at first, then all at once. foreignaffairs.com/articles/…

But wait, there’s more. “Chinese representatives tried to influence German government officials to give positive comments about Beijing's management of the coronavirus outbreak, Germany's Die Welt newspaper reported Sunday.” hongkongfp.com/2020/04/12/be…

A great message to allies, partners, and the entire world.

Just wanted to share that I’ve stepped down from the Brookings Institution & Yale’s China Center. I’ll also be Tweeting a bit less here starting today. I’m grateful for the opportunity to serve and thrilled to be working alongside so many friends and colleagues.

This is terrific news. “Britain is seeking to forge an alliance of ten democracies to create alternative suppliers of 5G equipment and other technologies to avoid relying on China...a ‘D10’ club based on the G7 + Australia, South Korea & India.” thetimes.co.uk/article/downi…

Your parent company is subject to the following PRC laws that put US data at risk and together allow the PRC to shape the messages Americans receive. National Intelligence Law Cybersecurity Law Encryption Law Data Security Law Counterespionage Law State Secrets Law

Good news! Alongside our Australian friends, we’re going to mine enough Lithium in Nevada to power 370,000 EVs annually. And this is just the start — we are sitting on an ocean of Lithium. All we need to do to break dependence on PRC Lithium is act.

Victor Gao threatens the UK on @TimesRadio on the embassy matter: “If Britain wants to ruffle feathers with China - the biggest economy in the world, a very powerful and influential military power - you need to be fully aware of all the consequences.”

We need a through review of why the US lacks the industrial capacity to make masks, antibiotics, or medical equipment to protect its own people or to help others. Manufacturing capacity in these sectors is a domestic & intl public good. And we need policies to restore it.

This is laughable, but the message is deadly serious: Australians, and other foreigners in China, need to leave. The risk that they might become victims of Beijing’s next round of “hostage diplomacy” is growing.

Good frame here from Dean. “China has crafted a policy that gives it the power to forbid any country on Earth from participating in the modern economy.” Those who equate China’s action with America’s chip controls are missing the sheer scale of what China has done.

China’s global tech ambitions would have been dramatically accelerated with the Indian market. It was almost a tech “swing state.” But with bans on these apps and new restrictions on Huawei, that strategy is seriously imperiled.

Seems India’s dependence on the PRC isn’t excessive. 1) Only 5% of Indian exports go to China. 2) Most imports from China could eventually be diversified, including APIs and some electronics. 3) PRC capital is great but not essential; many want to invest in India.

Just a reminder that China has placed an exit ban on a seven-year-old US child. Meanwhile, the Trump admin is softening China policy to get a Xi meeting: sending AI chips to China, canceling Taiwan defense exchanges, and freezing export control and sanction actions.

Seems the USG has evidence that PRC-linked actors built a capability to take down American telecom networks while operating in the US. “Federal agents discovered additional locations and more equipment as they work to determine the ultimate goal of what the U.S. Secret Service said was a China-linked plot that could have crippled every cell tower in the nation's largest city, jammed 911 calls, and unleashed chaos on communications networks.”

While we threaten the Canadians with tariffs and annexation, they’re standing with us in the Taiwan Strait. There’s no coherent or systematic logic to our application of coercion right now. It’s all just vibes.

Outrageous. If Czech intelligence is right, this is grounds for expelling several PRC diplomats in the Czech Republic. “Chinese agents plotted a ‘demonstrative kinetic action’ targeting VP Hsiao during her March 2024 visit to Prague….according to Czech military intelligence.”

This is a very important piece on China, the United States, and the new international economic order from @CFR_org President @MikeFroman, who previously served as Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economic Affairs and as USTR. A few key excerpts I found particularly notable: "From 2009 to 2017, I served first as deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs and then as U.S. trade representative. During that time, I consistently warned my Chinese counterparts that the benign international environment that had enabled China’s success would disappear unless Beijing modified its predatory economic policies. Instead, China largely maintained its course of action. If anything, it doubled down on its approach." "Eventually, even American businesses, which had always been the ballast in the bilateral relationship, soured on China as their intellectual property was stolen or forcibly licensed, their market access to China was severely restricted or delayed, and China’s subsidies and preferences for domestic firms ate into their opportunity. Without any semblance of reciprocity, the relationship deteriorated. Politicians of both parties and the American public hardened their stance on China. European and major emerging economies grew hostile to Beijing’s policies, as well. In short, the benign international environment disappeared." "The U.S. strategy of engagement with China was based on the premise that, if the United States incorporated China into the global rules-based system, China would become more like the United States. For decades, Washington lectured Beijing about avoiding protectionism, eliminating barriers to foreign investment, and disciplining the use of subsidies and industrial policy—with only modest success. Still, the expectation was that integration would facilitate convergence." "Washington may have forged the open, liberal rules-based order, but China has defined its next phase: protectionism, subsidization, restrictions on foreign investment, and industrial policy. To argue that the United States must reassert its leadership to preserve the rules-based system it established is to miss the point. China’s nationalist state capitalism now dominates the international economic order. Washington is already living in Beijing’s world." "Washington, having failed to convince Beijing to change its predatory economic policies or to move forward with an alternative trading bloc to counterbalance China, was left with one option: the United States had to become more like China."

After 3+ years at the NSC, it's hard to believe that Monday was my last day. It was the privilege of a lifetime to serve there - at this time, for this president, and under this NSA - and to do so alongside the most dedicated public servants I've met. A little on my next steps

Art of the deal in two WSJ stories. ➡️ We unilaterally indicate we’ll remove export controls on the H20 so Beijing can dominate AI and seemingly ask for nothing in return. ➡️ On the very same day, Beijing slaps export controls on battery technology.

If true, this is an outrageous failure that does nothing to address the fact that the PRC will control the algorithm — and with it, a large chunk of the American information space.

Some of these political commentators on the right remind me of Qing-era traditionalists. They are largely unaware of the fact the world is changing rapidly and that the West must urgently adapt or risk falling behind.

Recent PRC Ministry of Commerce public remarks are a must-read. Beijing seems a little rattled by the global response but is resolved to keep the regime. Three points. 1⃣ They're worried about the global reaction to their moves. So they stressed (twice) verbatim that these export control measures on rare earths are not prohibitions/bans (中国的出口管制不是禁止出口). 2⃣The do not want to withdraw the controls. They also stressed these controls are their sovereign right. (这是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系的正当做法) 3⃣ They haven't announced a response to Trump's threats. They say only the boilerplate "they do not want to fight, but aren't afraid of fighting." Suggests they may not want to see further escalation. (对于关税战，中方的立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕打) Bottom Line: Trump wants this regime withdrawn. Beijing won't do that, but is trying to reassure it won't implement it punitively. Obviously, that is not a credible promise on Beijing's part, and US and PRC positions are at odds.

Very excited that my book, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, is under contract with @OUPPolitics & part of Jim's @BtGProjectDC series! The book focuses on PRC grand strategy from the end of the Cold War to the present day. It'll be out in 2021!

This is the future of Europe’s industrial base — and ours — unless we band together.

Tired: Rug pull random crypto investors Wired: Rug pull your political supporters Inspired: Rug pull the entire country

Notable that the US and its allies outproduce China in machine tools with only a fraction of the population. Allied scale matters.

PRC Eastern Theater Command just announced exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Lai dialed back his 10/10 speech from his inaugural. So China is validating those who say no matter what Taiwan does, no matter what Lai does, they will escalate. Not a wise policy.

All that said, Xiaohongshu - if it survives Beijing - poses all the same problems that TikTok does and probably more to the US. But I think the problems it poses to Beijing right now may be greater since it's almost a tunnel under the firewall to reach PRC citizens directly.

Excited to share that @BrookingsFP has published the full introduction from my book, The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order! You can it read it here. brookings.edu/essay/the-long…

Why is ⁦@YouTube⁩ censoring terms critical of the CCP — “共匪” and “五毛” — on its platform here in the United States and worldwide? theverge.com/2020/5/26/21270…

This viral post gets a lot wrong. 1) This post is false — MFA DG Yang Tao saw Blinken off. 2) The treatment was reciprocal — when FM Wang Yi visited in October 2023, DAS Mark Lambert saw him off. 3) The debate is silly — Blinken had a bilateral meeting with President Xi.

🚨 The Supreme Court is out with a unanimous decision upholding the TikTok legislation. They correctly realized this law was content agnostic and that national security concerns were justified. The Biden Administration should enforce and not leave this to Trump, who won’t.

Candidly, I've enjoyed seeing the interaction. It reminds me of an earlier more hopeful era of US-China people-to-people interaction on the internet (now almost 20 years ago). And that's precisely why I'd be nervous if I were a Xiaohongshu executive right now.

Concern about PRC excess capacity isn’t only a Western phenomenon. The Global South is worried too. “Indonesia will impose safeguard duties of 100% to 200% on [PRC] imports ranging from footwear to ceramics to protect domestic industries.” asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trad…

If true, seems we are effectively going to dismantle the export control regime on AI chips just as Beijing builds out its regime on rare earth minerals and magnets.

They’re saying it out loud.

China’s Embassy in Sri Lanka demands that “freedom of speech must be honored” after its Twitter account is briefly suspended. All without any apparent sense of irony.

Thank you for your comment. I often recommend your writing to others but disagree with you here. I’ve spoken with senior Indian officials who welcome PRC involvement. They say before Apple announced plans to move to India, the interest from some companies was real as you suggest (e.g., Xiaomi). Some PRC companies have done well there, as you know. But after Apple announced its move to India, a more nervous PRC government told companies to pull back. There are reported examples of what I’m suggesting I have had confirmed to me by Indian officials and foreign businesses: In fact, some existing firms are facing pressure from the PRC state not to invest or export to India, engineers in China are given visas to India by the embassy but told not to travel by the PRC, contract manufacturers are told not to invest in training, certain production equipment is withheld from export, etc. The fact this is an active subject of negotiation between China and India today suggests my account is right — the PRC government has decided to push companies not to support India’s industrial ambitions.

Important story from @kenmoriyasu that explains, in part, why Tokyo skipped NATO, pulled down the 2+2, and is silent on Iran. There is no path to allied scale without Japan. But the relationship is at a low-point due to Trump policy. Sharp reversal from the last four years.

Is DOGE undermining the defense industrial base?

Huge thanks to Hu Xijin for the reminder that ethnic Indians (like me) have a "fragile and capricious mentality." Sadly, I will be late in performing my self-criticism since I must first score 50 points in the Study Xi Strong Country app today (and everyday). Please forgive me.

Pretty remarkable outreach effort, if true: “The Indian government reached out to more than 1,000 companies in the U.S. and through overseas missions to offer incentives for manufacturers seeking to move out of China, according to Indian officials.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Trump's top defense official for Southeast Asia on unilateral aid cuts to the Philippines: "The US might begin a cooperation spiral with China by proposing to remove US military forces or weapons systems from the Philippines in exchange for the CCG executing fewer patrols..."

Lot of PRC bots in the replies. Here’s the reality: - No US export control action threatened China’s entire economy. - China’s export control action threatens the entire US manufacturing ecosystem. There is no equivalence. I’m not making a moral point but an empirical one.

Two charts seem relevant, right now.

Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates on Xinjiang: “The unspeakable oppression that Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities have suffered at the hands of China’s authoritarian government is genocide and Joe Biden stands against it in the strongest terms.” politico.com/amp/news/2020/0…

Industrial policy is a large part of why they got good at doing this.

Audacious for a company that censors PRC citizens and whose CEO was afraid to criticize Xi publicly to lecture a democratically-elected member on free speech.

A few months ago, when India was a “tech swing state,” the US encouraged it to ban Huawei. Now, Indian MP’s like tech entrepreneur @rajeev_mp are urging the US to ban TikTok to ensure democracies shape the internet. Remarkable to see India lead the conversation on PRC tech.

Several former Trump officials, current Trump allies, and Republican experts come out against the administration’s decision to provide China Nvidia’s H20: Steve Bannon Oren Cass Matt Pottinger Kyle Bass David Feith Liza Tobin Michael Sobolik Craig Singleton Peter Mattis

Excited to share that I've been named a joint Fellow between Brookings - where I'll direct our new China Strategy Initiative - and Yale's Paul Tsai China Center. Grateful to have the opportunity to keep working with & learning from incredible colleagues at both institutions!

Extraordinarily grateful to have had the opportunity to testify on the China challenge before the @SenateCommerce Subcommittee on Security this morning. My written submission was on "The US, China, & the Fourth Industrial Revolution" - bit.ly/339LRIX A few points: 1/

“China is complex” is not a good response to the fact that millions of Uyghurs are in detention camps right now.

We cannot outscale China without allies. Pursuing rebalancing in ways that push allies into neutrality or even resigned bandwagoning with China means we lose. If that’s “tearing down the system” then the PRC will celebrate it. Again, it’s about *how* you do things.

Yes, Italy will pay China for these supplies, but the fact China can uniquely provide them and is willing to do so during a time of scarcity has political implications as well.