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Our July/August 2026 issue is now available online. Start reading here:
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Putin’s regime is living on borrowed time—and if the West holds firm, the Russian leader’s hold on power will likely collapse in the near future, write @Kasparov63 and @mbk_center.
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“Allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine would cost the United States about seven times more than preventing a Russian victory,” writes Elaine McCusker. “Aiding Ukraine, then, is clearly the right financial decision.”
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“To be blunt: for much of the world, it appears that Washington doesn’t value the lives of Palestinian children as much as it values the lives of Israelis or Ukrainians.”
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“Whatever the price of helping Ukraine is, it’s cheaper than fixing the world if Ukraine doesn’t win.”
Listen to the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” featuring a conversation with Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs @DmytroKuleba:
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The Ukrainian military will run short on weapons long before its manpower is exhausted or morale breaks, write @AVindman and @DomCruzBus. But the West has the resources to ensure that Ukraine has the supplies it needs to prevail in this fight.
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Kurt Tong, who served as U.S. Consul General in Hong Kong until July 2019, considers what Washington can do to secure Hong Kong’s autonomy—and what policies would only make the situation worse.
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.@BernieSanders calls for an end to a U.S. foreign policy oriented around terrorism and endless wars:
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.@AVindman argues that Washington should help Kyiv bring the war with Russia to a swift and decisive end—and explains how preparing to retake Crimea will create an opening for diplomatic talks with Moscow.
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What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea
A credible military threat might be enough.
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Washington can and should do more to ensure a Ukrainian victory, writes @AVindman. First, it must abandon the hope for a stable relationship with Russia—and discard the desire to see Ukraine compromise for the sake of a negotiated peace.
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“Those who failed to foresee the risks of the United States’ current crisis weren’t paying enough attention to Trump’s actual words.”
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“We need to rethink the militaristic approach that has undermined the United States’ moral authority, caused allies to question our ability to lead, drained our tax coffers, and corroded our own democracy,” writes @BernieSanders.
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It is time for Ukraine’s partners to part with their halfhearted strategy of support—and pivot to an offensive approach that provides Kyiv with the weapons necessary to gain the upper hand on the battlefield, argues @n_roettgen.
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The risk that a Ukrainian victory would lead to dangerous Russian retaliation is overblown, writes @AVindman. The risks of a Russian victory are far greater—and would entail irreversible damage to the liberal order, security norms, and global stability.
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It is not the collapse of Putin’s regime that Washington should fear—but the regime’s continued survival, write @Kasparov63 and @mbk_center.
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“Resistance to Russia—and rejection of the kinds of distasteful compromises that might bring the war to a swift end—should also be understood as evidence of the abiding power of ideals and principles in geopolitics.”
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If Finland and Sweden join NATO, they will bring substantial defense capabilities that will alter the security architecture of northern Europe and help deter further Russian aggression, writes former Swedish Prime Minister @carlbildt. trib.al/448imyH
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A new survey conducted by @ArabBarometer’s @AmaneyJamal and @mdhrobbins shortly before Hamas’s October 7 attack indicated that Gazans desire political change—and that, by and large, Gazans did not share Hamas’s goal of eliminating the state of Israel.
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“Ukraine’s campaign to destroy Russia’s oil refining capacity is putting exactly the kind of pressure on Moscow that the U.S.-led sanctions regime was designed for but has had limited success in delivering.” trib.al/Iq58AOh
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Public support for the EU has increased by double digits in Germany, France, and Belgium following Brexit. ow.ly/WyIr30a3691
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The Biden administration seems to fear the chaos that could accompany a decisive Kremlin defeat—but rather than destabilizing Russia and its neighbors, a Ukrainian victory would boost the cause of democracy worldwide, write @Kasparov63 and @mbk_center.
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As the world’s democracies confront shared global challenges and a brewing fight against authoritarianism, Taiwan seeks to be—and in many ways already is—part of the solution, writes Taiwanese President @iingwen.
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The latest arrests of senior figures in Hong Kong’s democracy movement send a chilling message, writes @jwassers. The agreement stipulating that Hong Kong would enjoy a “high degree of autonomy” from Beijing is in tatters.
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Chinese leaders expect that the Trump administration’s policies will dismantle the foundations of U.S. global hegemony—and create an opportunity for Beijing to expand its influence farther and faster, writes Yun Sun.
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The latest arrests of senior figures in Hong Kong’s democracy movement send a chilling message, @jwassers writes. The agreement stipulating that Hong Kong would enjoy a “high degree of autonomy” from Beijing is in tatters.
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“Taiwan has developed one of the world’s most vibrant political cultures by making technology work to democracy’s advantage rather than detriment. This culture of civic technology has proved to be the its strongest immune response to the new coronavirus.”
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.@McFaul argues that the West must help Kyiv put more pressure on Moscow, including by making it more difficult for Russian companies to engage in financial transactions with the outside world.
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“If Russia wins and Ukraine falls, Central Europe may well be next.”
@P_Fiala, @MorawieckiM, and @eduardheger—prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia, respectively—urge the West to stay the course in Ukraine.
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“Misguided prosecutions of Chinese-born scientists at American universities have sent a chill through the foreign-born scientific community and have driven some of its best and brightest minds to return to China out of fear.”
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“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must resign immediately if Israel is to have any chance of rebounding from the destruction he has wreaked on its security, economy, and society.”
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“Putin evidently still wishes to subjugate all of Ukraine, not occupy a portion of the country’s territory. The idea that Ukraine can trade land for peace and thus remain free on the land it controls is a fantasy.”
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Fiona Hill, who served as a senior foreign policy adviser to President Trump, offers a behind-the-scenes look at the administration’s approach to relations with Moscow.
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“If democracy is allowed to fall in Ukraine, U.S. adversaries will perceive weakness, understanding that aggression pays. The price tag for defending U.S. national security against such threats would be many times higher than the one for supporting Kyiv.”
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If Russia topples Kyiv, the United States will need to “spend $808 billion more on defense over the next five years than it has budgeted,” writes Elaine McCusker.
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“Most Ukrainians see continuing to fight as incomparably better than the terror of Russian occupation.”
@ngumenyuk explains why Ukrainians are likely to stay committed to the war, however high the cost: fam.ag/41aFG4T
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Evidence of mass surveillance, arbitrary arrest, forced labor, detention camps, torture, and murder in Xinjiang has piled up, but China’s economic power has deterred many world leaders from open criticism. Read @excinit on whether this is about to change:
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“The arrest of nonviolent activists in Hong Kong is ominous, but unfortunately not unprecedented.”
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“Most Ukrainians see continuing to fight as incomparably better than the terror of Russian occupation.” @ngumenyuk explains why Ukrainians are likely to stay committed to the war, however high the cost: fam.ag/41aFG4T
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“Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine,” writes @apolyakova. To bring about an end to the conflict, the incoming Trump administration must implement a maximum pressure campaign on Russia. fam.ag/4fA3S4t
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We've dropped our paywall for the next three and a half weeks, so now is the time to read up on the issues shaping today's world. Particularly for those who are new to our website, here is a good place to start:
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“The GOP is no longer a party based on ideas or policies but something more akin to a cult.”
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“The current pandemic has distracted international observers from Hong Kong’s struggle and left many local residents fearful of crowds. Chinese authorities know it.”
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Under Xi, the Chinese political system is becoming ever more closed—making the service provided by the foreign press corps even more valuable. @JEPomfret discusses the implications of China’s expulsion of reporters from three major U.S. newspapers:
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“Pax Americana is gone. Born with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the U.S.-led international rules-based order died with the second inauguration of Donald J. Trump.”
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How Spain's overreaction to the Catalan referendum legitimized the call for independence: ow.ly/gSxF30fFVBK
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Hong Kong’s status as an autonomous region that respected the rule of law and protected human rights helped make the city a capital of international finance, writes Michael C. Davis. This achievement is now at risk.
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During Franco's early years of rule, the Spanish state inflicted what amounted to cultural genocide on Catalonia. ow.ly/YG9B30gaZti
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“The United States and other countries have pressed for a cessation of hostilities and sought to negotiate humanitarian access to Tigray, but they have largely ignored the horrors in the west of the region. They can no longer afford to look away.” trib.al/gFwbG90
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“What has happened in Hong Kong will affect not only its 7.5 million residents but also the entire region—and the rest of the world.”
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One million people could die on the first day of any preventive or preemptive war with North Korea. foreignaffairs.com/articles/…
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“The pandemic appears to have increased Beijing’s sensitivity to questions of sovereignty, from Hong Kong and Taiwan to the East and South China Seas—and to the rugged Himalayan border with India.”
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.@rosenbergerlm traces the progression of China’s coronavirus information campaign, from Beijing’s response to initial reports of an outbreak to its current strategy of sowing doubt, dissension, and disarray:
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“What has been Asia’s financial hub may find itself reduced to a twenty-first-century version of the fishing village that Queen Victoria’s subjects found when they sailed into the harbor in 1841.”
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Despite doubts in Washington that Kyiv can secure a victory, Ukraine is capable of beating Russia in this war, writes @AVindman. The United States must give Ukraine the support it needs to bring the war to a close as soon as possible.
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“When he departs the White House, Trump will have left the United States bereft of friends and admirers beyond its borders, save for a menagerie of unsavory characters who share the U.S. president’s dystopic vision.”
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Nigeria’s international partners, especially the United States, must acknowledge that Nigeria is now a failed state, write @JohnCampbellcfr and Robert I. Rotberg.
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“Attacking the ICC shows that the United States supports global justice only when applied to its adversaries. And in doing so, it suggests that Washington’s commitment to the rule of law extends only so far as its short-term naked self-interest allows.”
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Don’t Go to War With the ICC
America can help Israel without attacking the court.
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In a review of two recent books, @JanePerlez considers what China’s crackdown on Hong Kong will mean for the city’s residents, for the region, and for the world:
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“The fire was already burning; all Putin had to do was pour on some gasoline.” Read Fiona Hill on how President Trump’s approach to politics helped Moscow exploit divisions in the United States.
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In a review of “City on Fire” by Antony Dapiran and “Unfree Speech” by Joshua Wong with Jason Y. Ng, @JanePerlez discusses Beijing’s tightening grip on Hong Kong and the waves of protest the crackdown has inspired:
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Trump’s foreign policy has damaged the United States’ ability to address problems before they reach U.S. territory, compounding the danger emergent threats pose, write former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, @KoriSchake, Jim Ellis, & @JoeFelter.
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“If Xi continues on this trajectory, eroding the foundations of China’s economic and political power and monopolizing responsibility and control, he will expose the CCP to cataclysmic change.”
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In a review of two books on Hong Kong, @JanePerlez details Beijing’s takeover of the city and the protest movement that developed in response:
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When rising powers have suffered economic slowdowns in the past, they became more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad. China seems to be headed down just such a path, argues Michael Beckley.
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For now, China’s economic power allows it to repress Muslim Uighurs at home while building partnerships with Muslim nations abroad. But growing awareness of the atrocities in Xinjiang may have steep consequences for Beijing down the road, writes @excinit.
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“Most Ukrainians see continuing to fight as incomparably better than the terror of Russian occupation.”
@ngumenyuk explains why Ukrainians are likely to stay committed to the war, however high the cost: fam.ag/41aFG4T
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Ukrainians will fight with or without new advanced weapons, with or without harsher sanctions, and with or without money to help them run their country—and the West should help them win as swiftly as possible, writes @McFaul.
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The White House’s indignation over the new national security law in Hong Kong is certainly justified, writes Kurt Tong. But there are better ways to defend Hong Kong than the approach the Trump administration is now pursuing.
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China never fully carried out its commitment to the democratic reform needed to sustain Hong Kong’s wavering autonomy, writes Michael C. Davis. Now, it has brought Hong Kong fully under the national security state governed from Beijing.
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“India is the only big power that can draw on decades of friendship to pressure Moscow. That means New Delhi is uniquely positioned not just to shore up its own geopolitical position but also to prevent a deeply destabilizing and violent conflict.”
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China’s need for democratization is endogenous, argues Jiwei Ci. Reform has created a largely democratic society without a complementary democratic polity, and the mismatch will eventually require that the state democratize to preserve its legitimacy.
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Under Xi, the Chinese political system is becoming ever more closed—making the service provided by the foreign press corps even more valuable. @JEPomfret discusses the implications of China’s decision to expel some American reporters:
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On the eve of Hamas’s October 7 attack, Gazans had very little confidence in their Hamas-led government, according to a newly released survey conducted by @ArabBarometer, @AmaneyJamal, and @mdhrobbins.
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“Putin still believes that time is on his side.”
Russia's president expects that the West will gradually lose interest in helping Ukraine—and the United States and its partners must prove him wrong, writes @McFaul.
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Beijing has long understood that harnessing information can be a means of exercising geopolitical power, @rosenbergerlm writes. And as the novel coronavirus spreads around the globe, China is resorting to extreme measures.
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“The Biden foreign policy agenda will place the United States back at the head of the table, in a position to work with its allies and partners to mobilize collective action on global threats.”
@JoeBiden outlines his foreign policy vision:
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“Most Ukrainians see continuing to fight as incomparably better than the terror of Russian occupation.”
@ngumenyuk explains why Ukrainians are likely to stay committed to the war, however high the cost: fam.ag/41aFG4T
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“In nearly every industry, the United States’ most transformative innovations over the last eight decades depended on government funding, because the government was the most patient and reliable actor willing to take on risks for the public benefit.”
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By helping Ukraine to prepare to retake Crimea, the West can force Putin to the negotiating table and create an opening for diplomatic talks, writes @AVindman.
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What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea
A credible military threat might be enough.
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A new nuclear deal with Iran would contradict President Biden’s forceful condemnation of the regime’s crackdown on protesters—and fund the same authorities who are brutally attacking citizens in the streets, writes @AlinejadMasih.
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To counter Chinese threats to U.S. vital interests, @NikkiHaley writes, it is necessary to think creatively and courageously—and without any illusions about our adversary’s intentions.
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Americans have reached a point where ignorance—at least regarding what is generally considered established knowledge in public policy—is seen as an actual virtue. foreignaffairs.com/articles/…
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Today, China’s economic power allows it to repress Muslim Uighurs at home while building partnerships with Muslim nations abroad. But growing awareness of the atrocities in Xinjiang could have steep consequences for Beijing down the road, writes @excinit.
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“Beijing’s recent actions in Hong Kong—and elsewhere in Asia—raise worrying questions about its evolving objectives and increasing willingness to use coercive tactics to achieve them.”
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Fiona Hill writes on how the convergence of Russian and U.S. politics reached a peak under the Trump administration—and what U.S. policymakers today should be doing to reverse this trend and shore up American defenses against Russian interference.
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.@AVindman argues that Washington should give Ukraine the weapons and assistance it needs to credibly threaten to take Crimea by force—and consequently force Putin to the negotiating table.
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What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea
A credible military threat might be enough.
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With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest power grab, which effectively removed his most formidable challenger from politics, Turkey has become a full, Russian-style autocracy, writes @gonultol.
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In a review of two recent books on Hong Kong, @JanePerlez details Beijing’s takeover of the city and the protest movement that developed in response:
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López Obrador’s nationalistic, enclosed, and less globalized vision of Mexico threatens to derail much of what has been accomplished in the last two decades, and Washington should be paying attention, @DeniseDresserG writes.
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U.S. policymakers failed to contain the rapid rise of China. Now, they confront a competitor that may be even more powerful than the Soviet Union at the peak of the Cold War, argues John J. Mearsheimer.
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In a review of two new books on Hong Kong, @JanePerlez details Beijing’s takeover of the city and the protest movement that developed in response:
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Read Fiona Hill on how the convergence of Russian and U.S. politics reached a peak under the Trump administration—and what U.S. policymakers today should be doing to reverse this trend and shore up American defenses against Russian interference.
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Over 50 years of Zbigniew Brzezinski's writing for Foreign Affairs, gathered into one place: ow.ly/SLXd30c63nB
The Essays of Zbigniew Brzezinski
A Collection of His Writings in Foreign Affairs
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“The United States has begun to move closer to Russia, as populism, cronyism, and corruption have sapped the strength of American democracy,” wrote Fiona Hill in a 2021 essay.
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When reports of the novel coronavirus surfaced in December, Beijing at first focused on suppressing them. Now, as the virus spreads around the globe, China’s information campaign has become more aggressive, @rosenbergerlm writes.
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“Beijing has acted with a sense of impunity in its northwestern province, but its abuses there could bedevil its foreign relations with the Muslim world in the years to come.”
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China’s economy is stalling, writes Michael Beckley, and this makes the country more dangerous than ever. Washington will have to deter China’s aggression, assuage its insecurities, & insulate the U.S. from blowback should deterrence and reassurance fail.
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Putin has no interest in a fight with NATO, but that doesn’t mean that Moscow isn’t willing to play a dangerous game of chicken with the West—and the likelihood that this game will end in tragedy will grow as the war drags on, writes @AVindman.
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What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea
A credible military threat might be enough.
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Today, China’s economic power allows it to repress Muslim Uighurs at home while building partnerships with Muslim nations abroad. But growing awareness of the atrocities in Xinjiang could have steep consequences for Beijing down the road, @excinit writes.
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“Ukraine’s partners should move from a half-hearted to a full-throated offensive strategy that provides the embattled country with all the weapons necessary to gain the upper hand and push back Russian forces,” argues @n_roettgen.
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