In May, China's Tungsten export was minimal. I extrapolated FY2026 & compared it to 2025 to visualize. In ton, WF6 is likely to double YoY, but APT & Tungsten powder export are down 90%+. So decreased outgoing W by tonnage & revenue looks unchanged YoY. Moving up value chain

CGTN showcasing China's 600km/h maglev train. It runs on rubber wheels at lower speed. After reaching 150km/h, wheels are retracted and vehicle is suspended as it moves along.

China has spent 7 yrs making "bad economic choices" to prepare itself for decoupling it has anticipated since 2018. It has diversified trade partners. Deflated stock & real estate bubble Punished big tech & encouraged new startups Drove industrial policy in new emerging sectors.

China will be celebrating if this goes through. Less brain drain, higher quality grad students for research in Chinese universities & staying in domestic firms after graduation. Elite U.S. universities without chinese grads will be interesting to watch.

ByteDance makes 77% of its revenue in China. TikTok US is a tiny % of its revenue & likely not even profitable. Selling off its US asset due to foreign govt pressure would be a national humiliation that would adversely affect Douyin's popularity in China. ByteDance has huge growth potential ahead in China & most of global south mkt. It is a huge & growing player in social media, eCommerce & AI. To all the natsec ppl out there, don't pretend you care about the ByteDance shareholders. I bet you've never even looked through ByteDance's detailed earnings report. India was TikTok's biggest mkt & it got kicked out of there in 2020. Guess what, ByteDance just moved on & now its biggest mkt is Indonesia. Every Chinese tech company understands that mkt access to Western countries could get cut off. In fact, many of them expect it. And guess what, there are other mkts out there that are growing & welcoming. You are not that special. So no, of course ByteDance should not sell its US asset & create a new competitor. Did Google sell its China asset when it left China? Should Chinese govt threaten Apple & force Apple to divest its Chinese assets to a local competitor? Or Nvidia? Be real here. You don't even bother contemplate these points, because you want to put the blame of TikTok getting shutdown to China. That's fine. Don't spend all day pretending that you care about ByteDance or their (mostly Chinese) shareholders.

Back 15 yrs ago, Chinese development faced 2 distinct problems: 1) Energy dependence on Indian Ocean sea lane w/o Navy to defend it 2) Over dependence on Mkt access & Tech from Western countries. Focusing on 1) today, let's discuss what China is doing for energy independence.

If you want to know who Chinese leadership consider to be most important, just see the 6 who spoke to Xi yesterday. HW, BYD, Xiaomi, Omnivision, Unitree & New Hope Group (agriculture). All from manufacturing. Yes, Omnivision is that important in all future robotic & electronics. China still values hard tech more than soft tech. That’s just the reality. There is a reason DeepSeek got pushed out to so many consumer electronics so quickly & will be used globally. China has just so many hard tech champions. GPT-4o has been out for how long & which American hard tech company is using it? Value of SMIC, NAURA, HW, CXMT & YMTC, DJI are so much higher to China than JD, Didi & Baidu

I don't think we have really fully appreciated all the possible humanoid robot applications.

Long thread on what we saw today out of Beijing. We can start off where they showed off the revamped nuclear triad. DF61 & 31BJ from ground + DF-5C new silo ICBM JL-3 from 094 submarines & JL-1 from H-6N i don't care much abt nukes, so this is more for the DC policy makers.

Back in 2000s, India was considered to be well ahead of China in s/w bc it was doing the beneficiary of Western out-sourcing. Fast track to today, China has Bytedance, Tencent, Alibaba, JD, PDD, Shein, Meituan, Didi, Baidu as well as soft/hard giants like HW, Xiaomi, Vivo & Oppo

Robotic hand w/ 15 DOF This is more advanced than anything I have seen up to this point

This is BYD starting phase 5, 6, 7 & 8 out of its expansion in Zhengzhou at the same time. Built next to Zhengzhou land port. Just watch the number of construction & engineering vehicles + the raw size of this area. BYD's scale & ability to build up massive factories is quite mind blowing. The existing real estate is already larger than any Tesla Gigafactory & this expansion makes the existing plant look small. What will BYD be building here? Will it be hiring all the workers that get displaced from Foxconn factory nearby? What a company.

In Air warfare, PLAAF has developed kill chain where aircraft A can guide missile fired off by aircraft B until B gets closer to target & turn on radar for weapon grade tracking. Recent exercise show PAF has also achieved this capability. Thread on PAF learning from PLAAF

HW Mate XT being used to play Black Myth Wukong. It really isn't a phone. It's a foldable flat screen computer. HW needs to improve GPU/AI performance on its SoC really fast, bc ppl are going to be using XT phones to play high-end gaming & other demanding actions.

We are in 2025, China just effortlessly unveil B21 sized unmanned bomber already in Malan testing range + multiple high end UCAVs while US is evaluating Anduril garbage. This is happening bc China’s supply chain is ready & vibrant. When foundation of your aerospace industry is good & funding is there, you won’t have problem delivering on modern cutting edge platforms.

Most Chinese ppl have 0 idea how expensive things are in America. And they think you are pumping them Chinese gov't propaganda when you explain it to them.

Scaled J-20 vs J-36 (src THX 113) J-36 nose looks 2x as wide as J-20 2x width -> 4x volume 4x Radar size & interior space for electronic equipment + cooling. Much wider fuselage & huge space after IWB for power generator, starter motor, batteries & fuel. J-20 already has big nose & spacious interior vs other aircraft, so J-36's power generation, cooling, spacing & antenna size & fuel (for power generation) is just a whole league above 5th gen aircraft.

China has become the leading producer for many foreign delicacies like Caviar, Black truffles, matcha, foie gras, eel & Wagyu beef. Due to its vast geography & varying climates + China's industrial+tech, many products found ideal growing environment in different parts of China.

Above is what China was making when its relationship with America was going well. Below is what China is making now when its relationship with America is going badly. I wonder what changed?

The seismic event I was referring to. Look at this monstrosity of 6th gen aircraft. 3 engines & significantly outsize even J20S It will enter service by 2032 probably. Same time F35 block 4 goes into service. Chinese cadence is too fast. Every 14 yrs, moves to new gen.

China's largest PV project in 沙戈荒 has come online. This 4GW project in SE of Taklamakan Desert required 15.6B RMB investment & cover area of 76 km2. Can generate 6.9 TWh/yr (~20% utilization) Best use of desert is putting PVs over them Solve many problems

Reminder that U.S. think tanks are run by stupids who think you can penetrate Chinese air space with 32 F35s & 32 F15s. The level of blindness in DC blob abt PLA capabilities in counter stealth, EW, ELINT, sensor fusion & C2 is very high. Huge disconnect bw intel agencies & the tankers that get paid boatload of money from defense contractors to advocate policies that promote conflicts.

Another 10k+ students from recent graduating class joined BYD. Of which, 70% are master or PHD level. 80% of them are going into R&D. BYD's human capital advantage is huge.

BYD's Shenzhen Shenshan plant after phase 2 completed. Not as large as Zhengzhou, but it will get a lot larger as next few phases get built over the following yrs. BYD's capex is still climbing

Chancay port is 100% automated. Look at all the AGVs around. This is what allows full 24 hr operation & highest throughput. No delays to any of the truckers or cargo ships.

Chinese social media: Wide adoption of DeepSeek has put the attorney profession in China in existential crisis. DS + different apps can achieve significant productivity gain Chinese ppl has been more willing than Americans to accept change & automation in the past due to 40 yrs of rapid changes.

Introducing 小航: A cute Space robot serving China's space station. Can do cabin inspection, material management, product status inspection, and Q&A -> a smart assistant.

Actually, Chinese industrial advantage is massive bc it uses high level of automation, low energy cost, complete local supply China, world class infrastructure & enormous supply of engineers It’s far easier to demonize China than actually understanding why Chinese industries are successfully so Anglo elites never allow conversation to figure out how to be more successful. Maybe if you want to build your own industry, then copy the Brazilians, Turks & Hungarians and invite Chinese companies to come & build supply chain in your country. Seems like a better idea than waiting for the banking system to suck uk dry of all wealth, right?

Frankly, SCMP should be ashamed of having a white reporter telling the world that China needs west’s report. This kind of blatant racism is beyond disgusting. Any Chinese person who has suffered racism can attest for this.

Jensen is getting desperate. China is shutting off a major src of demand for Nvidia chips, transshipment to Chinese SOE DCs. I have pretty solid src that just 6000 out of 100k racks in Meta's Hyperion DC will be Nvidia cards. Google TPUs are supplying most of its future demand. Same w/ Amazon & Trainium. I've said this many times now. The absolute compute per card should not be overvalued. You can achieve same w/ compute w/ more lower cost cards & get better performance through more memory + faster interconnect. On top of that, US data build out is facing logjam due to energy & supply chain issues. You can check the lead time on diesel generators & gas turbine. I overstated optical transceiver issues since the big time has hit supply chain constraint b4 we even got there. Jensen knows Nvidia is facing an upcoming cliff. Altman sees the same issue. Hence all the begging for govt help. At end of the day, Chinese AI labs have shown you can do leading models w/o having unlimited compute, so why do we need to keep proclaiming build out speed that's not achievable?

From recent PAF briefing of its IAF encounter, it identified 72+ IAF aircraft (India reported 80 in total) w/ 14 Rafales & showcased very competent operational control, situation awareness & battlefield mgmt. I will talk abt why PAF description of event is very troubling for IAF

so basically, housing is finally getting affordable, which is good for regular people.

China's newly developed mosquito drone. Just 0.6cm sized. I can see a lot of intelligence gathering from this. Also a bunch of exoskeleton & humanoid robot stuff going on in this lab.

BYD's new auto Drone from DJI w/ its own hangar Takes off & Follows U8 around Return automatically & land Syncs video to U8 screen Can swap charged battery in Hangar Protects against water & dust How impressive

WuChang & JiangNan are China's 2 diesel sub shipyards & Huludao is the 1 building nuclear subs. Nuclear subs are large & water depth of Yangtze river around Wuhan is only 5m. Type 093 has draught of > 7.5m It's impossible to fully sink @ that section of Yangtze. Even in open sea, a SSN can be captured by satellite flying overhead unless it dips below PD. That's why you don't see nuclear subs go into Yellow Sea.

China's Yunnan Grid has started using humanoid robot to install & repair power grid infrastructure. It was used to install 220kV substation. Since Sep, Yunnan Grid has used humanoid robot & robot dogs in conjunction w/ drones, 3D laser scanning & mechanized construction. Its used mostly in hanging grounding wires & other tasks that are dangerous for humans to do. More labor replacement happening in China by robots.

I keep getting told that China doesn't consume, but the goods consumption in $ term was pretty close in 2024. And if we actually go by # of items bought. Is China not consuming or did it just make everything incredibly cheap for ppl to buy? China is world's biggest consumer mkt for most product.

HW unveils HarmonyOS for PC Integrates AI, communication, security & smoothness 1st product to be launched on 05/19 Supports QQ, WPS, DingTalk, Tencent Video, QQ Music, games & much more Allows seemly integration w/ phone, pad & other Harmony devices

Imagine 1 country dominating the full Semi supply chain including Silicon, wafer, all chemicals, all equipments, fabs, design studio & advanced pkg. China has that in Rare Earth & ppl are finding out now it is used in everything. Thread on just how much China controls RE supply chain.

China has completed final stretches of 3046 km "green belt" perimeter around Talkimakan Deser thru biological, engineering & PV sand control. Outside area can be developed w/o worries of desert expanding into them. More PVs can be built here to further shrink desert & increase power generation to power really energy intensive industries like Aluminum & Titanium

While most Vietnam visitors into China are probably checking out Yunnan via train, this seem to be spreading to Shanghai also. Shanghai has long been China's 1st stop for many foreign visitors. A lot of Japanese, Korean & Russians. I wonder if Shanghai will become for ASEAN countries what Miami is for Latin American countries. Basically, a metropolis that not only shapes nearby areas but the entire region from cultural & social trends & such. If you have ever been to South America, you'd see that a lot of local elites have connections to Miami. They like to compare wealthy & nicer part of their cities to Miami. People w/ money buy homes in Miami. And business open their US branch in Brickell. If there is 1 city in China that could probably have that kind of magnetism for surrounding Asian population, that would be Shanghai. Shenzhen is more technologically advanced, but ppl are workaholics. Beijing is too political & far north. Chongqing is too inland & probably not as fashionable. Shanghai checks all the boxes.

China's 9/3 military parade will showcase PLAGF progressing into information network centric warfare age. All new vehicles displayed show fruits of utilizing its vast EREV supply chain for longer range, better energy efficiency, autonomous tech & network/data-linking. Thread 👇

China now has the problem where it doesn't have enough unrecycled garbage for all the waste-to-energy plant that came up recently. Ppl are digging up old buried trash & buying them. AI finds all the garbage w/ value & separate them. It does this job far more efficiently & better than human workers. Remaining trash is burnt up for power & sent them to flying ash treatment. Over time, waste separating center will be able to find use for greater % of waste -> less left for burning. All the old buried trash will eventually be used up. And then, China's overcapacity in trash treatment can finally result in some plant closures.

China’s moves to block takeover of tech sector by American big tech was the smartest thing any country has done. In past yr, China Inc has invested significant money in Brazil. Looks like it has enabled Brazil to keep sovereignty over these MNC that think they run the world. Social media frankly brings nothing to a society except misery & addicts. These CEOs & their Wall Street backers need to be put in their place.

Andy Xie understands China very well & he proposes certain areas that China can squeeze harder on US Inc in China if this gets uglier. Basically, he thinks China can live w/o America but not vice versa. This is not 2018 when China needed US chips & SMEs. To Chinese elites, chip war was a bigger shock to the system than the current trade war. China was not prepared in 2018 or 2022, but it is extremely prepared this time around. It might lose 0.5-1% in growth, but that's not a big deal in the overall scheme of things. China's tech sector cannot get crippled by further sanctions & that's why China can afford to play tough. If you do not understand this, then you are not fit to evaluate this entire tariff situation. China thinks America has very few card left, but it still has plenty of ways to hit back. These are not my sentiment. This is how China is thinking. If you don't like the message, don't attack me (the messenger).

China not only dominates mfg of final product & basic materials, but also increasingly the equipment. Today, I will focus on machine tools. China is world's biggest machine tool producer ($27B) & exporter (>$7B) in 2024. A thread on how China Inc has grown in machine tools👇

Looking thru China's export controls for Li Ion Battery related machineries, chemicals & parts for cathode, anode & graphite, I think China is telling US that it is ready to move on. You don't bluff w/ this kind of blow w/o willingness to swallow a hard counter punch. The battery guy that I follow on Weibo was shocked to see the thoroughness of the equipment used for producing graphite anode & high density cathode.

MSM continues to be clueless abt what makes China's mfg tick. While industrial robots, precision mfg, 3D printing & AI are important, the supply chain buildup - especially in basic & advanced materials that really solidified its position in mfg. I will 1st talk abt Carbon Fiber & its importance in "new productive forces", electrification & AI application.

While Boston Dynamics is still stuck on doing flips w/ its Quadruped robots, Unitree dogs are hauling around 250 kg payload. It's amazing to see BD give up its 1st mover advantage.

DeepSeek's popularity inside China is almost hard to describe atm. OEMs like Lenovo, Ubtech & Voyah are promoting integration of their PCs, EVs & Robots w/ DeepSeek models. Chip designers/AI Server providers like Loongson, Muxi & FiberHome are promoting hw that can run DS models. It just quickly surpassed ByteDance's Doubao as the most popular domestic AI app. DS imo will have long lasting global impact. Since all the h/w OEMs are in China & they are all integrating w/ DS, AI PCs, phones, EVs & Robots will be using DS models.

Winnie the Pooh in a Miniso store in Shanghai. Didnt all the Chinese experts who has never been to the country say it has been banned?

Huge factor in China's mfg boom is taking over the global CNC mkt. You can go on YouTube & search "China CNC" & find many results of how China has taken over the know how of using CNC machines to make parts needed for pretty much everything. US customers send CAD drawings over to China to get them mfg for low cost & sent back. See below for how big China's CNC mkt is.

China's AI sector is far more than just Deepseek Qwen is 2nd most downloaded LLM on Huggingface Kling is the best video generation model Hunyuan is best open src video model DJI is best @ putting AI in consumer electronics HW is best @ industrial AI iFlyTek has best speech AI Xiaomi, Honor, Oppo & Vivo all ahead of Apple & Samsung in integrating AI into phones Entire auto industry is 5 yrs ahead of Western competition in cockpit AI & ADAS That still ignores the ultimate monster of them all -> Bytedance. No one has invested as much in AI as them in China & has the complete portfolio of models.

China's offer to Vietnam is help it move up value chain. COMAC will set up MRO facility anywhere as long as it gets minimum of 30 orders. MRO language here indicates Vietnam will order that many soon. But long term, Vietnam wants to be part of COMAC's supply chain. China wants to sell more high valued goods to rest of Asia.

China & Mongolia having a joint exercise. China is using modern equipment like drones & robot dogs. Mongolia is still riding on horses. It's like we are still in Genghis Khan time.

Is US's consumer economy really that much larger than China? Out of $19T, $12.7T are for services (bloated due to high service sector salaries + health care cost) & just $6.1T in consumer goods. Even $6.1T is bloated bc products are priced higher to account for high retail/sales cost, transportation, servicing cost & everything else that comes in a high salary society. Think about large box store having to markup 2x to 3x good cost to be profitable.

Tip of the iceberg QCOM/AVGO/QRVO has long dominated 5G modem & RF. Even APPL can't do it internally In M60, HW has fully domestic built-in 5G modem + RF that uploads/downloads as fast a X70 + combined that w/ satcom chipset Chinese OEMs sell 700m phones/yr? $30/phone -> $21B for just 5G RFFE Chinese supply chain had maybe 10% market share in 2021 If this rises to 25% in 2024 40% in 2025 $6B less for foreign RF products QCOM modem comes w/ Soc, but Let's say Xiaomi develops own modemless SoC (because 5G modem is hard!) + use HW 5G modem -> QCOM lose $180/phone None of this happens overnight, but future of QCOM looks bleak Same with AVGO/QRVO/Murata if Chinese OEMs buy domestic RF filters & power amplifier modules. I will do a tweet on RF filter at some pt Beyond that, China can fully sanction Ga export with no feared consequences. But of course, MSM only wants to talk about a 7nm chip.

If you wonder why China can retaliate, you can take a look at this chart. When factoring GDP & trade surplus w/ US for China + Hong Kong, it's just 1.37% of China's current GDP for 2025. Vietnam, Cambodia & Thailand the most exposed After that, it's SK, Japan & TW's auto & semiconductor (expected to be imposed soon) industry Much of Chinese exports to America are producing low value added goods for American companies. Aside from Shein, I can't think of one decently sized Chinese tech company that gets > 15% of its revenue from America. But there are many American tech companies that get > 20% of revenue from China. Now, much of that revenue are not "exports" from US to China, but US companies benefit from higher margins & stock prices. What would replacing 20 million iPhone sale in China w/ HW phone mean for the China's economy? I would say quite a bit, since you go from capturing < 10% of value to > 90% of value.

Reminder that China achieved its current dominance in precious metals thru sustained R&D over 30 yrs. While Rare Earth is not rare, China's ability to mine, recover & process REE is far ahead of every1 else, since it continued R&D here after achieving 90%+ share in RE refining. It has been really successful in ramping up its refining capacity & continue to improve its processing & recovery tech, so it can drive cost down -> enabling supply chain for clean tech & other industries. While it's share of RE mining continues to decline, it has maintained its refining mkt share, bc it can work w/ companies in Brazil & Vietnam to recover RE efficiently & then process them in China. nature.com/articles/s41893-0…

World's only superconducting tokamak large science cluster in Anhui is accelerating development of fusion energy. Use 100% local supply chain. Fusion Reactor Comprehensive Research Facility has basically been completed. Doing integration & debugging Expect to fully complete by end of this yr Will provide foundation for development of China's Future fusion reactors. src ithome.com/0/823/067.htm

After 3 wks in China, I think almost all current economic weakness is due to this controlled de-leveraging of the housing mkt + lower consumer confidence from that. See declining ratio of rental px to income from 2019 to 2024 below. China is de-leveraging mother of all bubbles over the past few yrs. Quite amazing it still grew by 5% a yr (although aided by significant purchase incentive programs).

DeepSeek has commoditized AI outside of very top-end. Lightbulb moment for me in 1st photo. R1 is so much cheaper than US labor cost that many jobs will get automated away over next 5 yrs. See @teortaxesTex post on how cheaply you can automate previously tedious & boring tasks.

I wonder why China would not want US military to have more F35s, Virginia Class subs & Burkes? Or more missiles. Fighting words in comment section by dummies who think RE is just abt digging minerals out of ground. There are big differences bw T300 & T1100 carbon fiber & CFRP types, yet ppl think all RE magnets are the same? Sure, you can use lower end RE alloys & magnets, but your weapon systems just aren’t going to be as good.

BYD is trying to kill all its competitors. Ridiculous pricing on FCB Tai-3 Entry model 139.8k RMB for 501km range Drone version all included just 203.8k & 4WD version just 163.8k RMB Dimension 4605/1900/1720mm wheelbase 2745 Futuristic cockpit, 151L frunk, fridge, DiPilot-100 & DiLink-100, E3.0 Evo platform w/ Disus-C 230kW+ charging 30-80% in 18min Suspension: frontal double-joint type macpherson strut & rear 5-link Can recover from 140km/h tire explosion

BYD making history as YangWang U9 Xtreme set the world record in top speed @ 496.2 km/h for mass produced model & verified by ATP. Record was previously held by Buggati Chiron @ 490 km/h. U9X is the most powerful Supercar ever @ 3000 ps.

We are in 3rd economic period since China opened up. 1st period 1980-2005 Advanced economies invested in China, taught China how to make stuff to lower cost 2nd 2006-2020 China became world's factory, US moved from mfg to design. 3rd 2021- China competes on top end in design. See graph for foreign export vs private/others

probably the most based thing China has ever said in these settings.

China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC) signed LOI w/ Malaysia's Pahang State to develop joint international space port along its East Coast. Would be significantly closer to equator, better for launching. Malaysian side to visit Wenchang Spaceport in May to study. 2 sides will focus on search launch capability Providing additional launch service for China mkt Estimated this plan will take 3 to 5 yrs to complete. Win-win for 2 sides as Malaysia moves up value chain in space industry while China can launch rockets closer to equators. Also China leading ASEAN countries fwd in tech supply chain. malaymail.com/news/malaysia/…

Well this is impressive out of 黄石新兴. World's 1st 3m Ductile Iron pipe. apparently, took 1100 days to develop. China's iron & steel industry are quite impressive.

Sany unmanned construction vehicle group successfully completed world's 1st unmanned paving construction project along 157.79km stretch on Beijing-HK Expressway. Unmanned 20m wide pavers, 13-t double steel roller, 30t rubber wheel rollers formed 1+3+3+3 lineup using smart algo & Beidou cm-level positioning & low latency communication network to ensure optimal path planning & rolling quality. Sany's SAP200C-10 large width unmanned paver achieved 19.25m width paving. Imagine, we no longer need workers to build roads. All they need to do is monitor that nothing bad happens. src mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LeUqHoBOp…

Instead of sending cargo to Manzanillo or Long Beach b4 heading to Asia. Now, large cargo ships go directly to China, shaving 10-12 days off transit time. Chancay is also most convenient hub for Brazilian farmers to transport their produce to China. Port is modern & efficient. This is what BRI is about. Improving infrastructure b4 China & ROW so that goods can get to China & from China to ROW more cheaply & efficiently Also allows Chinese ports & infrastructure to be used in trades bw other countries like Peru to Central Asia or Brazil to Myanmar. Think of China as the Atlanta airport for Delta. Do you really need to transit @ ATL when flying between NYC & Honduras? No, but Delta will make it nice & convenient for you to connect through ATL. In BRI, China is the central global hub of world trade. Everything goes through China & China can benefit from increased trades + collecting transit fees (port, shipping, rail & such) on other commerce. In order to achieve this, it needs to improve transport lanes bw itself & all the global spokes. So that the spokes can reach destination more easily & cheaply thru China vs direct travel. That's how you reduce dependence on others & increase their dependence on you.

After new chip related restrictions on China, China Internet Society, CAAM & CSIA jointly released warning domestic companies to caution usage of American chips due to supply chain risks. Since their members are some of the largest global chip consumers, this is a huge deal.

Li Qiang just met Liang Wenfeng regarding AI policy & now this plan is out. Note China focus not on Gen AI, but rather Robotics, bio, advanced materials & Drones. Key is funding & domestic tech stack, AI infrastructure AI -> promotes industrial growth & innovation I think the Chinese leadership understands that the stand to loose out if they do not put more official policy in place to support AI & semi industry. It would undermine decades of developing biotech, basic science, robotics & other fields whose development will be quickened thru AI. The key is to just build vast amount of public computation data centers & cheap/free power, so that any small startup like DeepSeek can emerge in the future.

you might want to check just how small the Chinese trade surplus vs US is of its actual GDP.

This is going to shock all the economists out there, but mfg employment is dropping even in East Asian countries bc young ppl don't want to work in factories. They want to work in nice white collar office jobs w/ proper AC. Even in Malaysia, factories are automating as much as possible to deal w/ this reality. There are many reasons for wanting to bring back manufacturing in developed countries, but employment should not be one of them. Factory work is not desirable for most ppl. If you did a survey of young ppl on what kind of job they want do growing up. I'd bet a huge % of them would say social media influencer or vlogger.

Gallium used in modern military AESA radars, 5G base stations, chargers & other power modules China produces 95% of world's Gallium Germanium used in fibre-optics, IR optics, solar cells & LEDs China also has world's largest Germanium producers w/ Yunnan Germanium at 25% market share Some obvious GaN users affected are: Cree Qorvo Infineon Macom Nokia TI NXP

this is literally 1.37% of its GDP

China spent 7 yrs planning/war-gaming a decoupling scenario + likely studied all consequences Wall Street Ghoul here thinks China wants to remain the low value assembly plant vs reality of what probably will actually happen Chinese plants move offshore & continue to make profits

You are welcome to try

Time will reveal more of what happened last night, but it appears that J-10C/PL-15 combo shot down multiple IAF fighters. Old assumption in miltech: US > French > Russian > Chinese Despite civilian tech showing this is completely untrue -> J-10C downing Rafale surprised ppl

Tech war will be over in a few yrs. EV/Renewables/drone dominance, HW/M60, HGV+FOB & everything you see this month in Zhuhai like J-35/HQ-19/UCAVs are just appetizers. There will be a major event soon that will surprise many ppl & that will be followed by 3 to 5 similar surprising events over next 10 yrs. It continues to amuse me that a bunch of ppl w/ no engineering background think that you can just choke of China's engineering, science & tech progress. Zhuhai air show will be fun. Follow it to get a sense of where China is at. Don't mistaken what you see as the end pt. There are plenty more under development.

Sitting on train ride in China is a great way to understand its wealth & development gap. You can tell a lot by looking at rail station, nearby infrastructure, people’s clothing & skincare as well as their luggage at each stop. When I was growing up, you can always see huge gap bw big cities, smaller cities, townships & villages. Even last time I was in China, I still noticed huge gaps everywhere. This time I am riding on HSR (so do not stop at villages or small townships), but lower tier cities than Beijing still have nice looking train stations, beautiful buildings. More interestingly, you can see a huge gap in skin care & clothing between older & younger generations. The Gen Z in 3rd to 5th tier cities grew up at a time when QoL saw rapid improvements & have enjoyed abundance all of their lives. 1st generation in China’s history to have experienced this. When you go to public bathroom, you can see younger generation observing different social q than older generation. It’s almost like they are more civilized as @Molson_Hart might say. The biggest accomplishment of Chinese govt in past decade is probably closing the developmental gap bw 1st & 5th tier cities. In some ways, it’s more impressive than the rapid growth period of the 80s to 2000s. Also likely China’s largest source of growth in the next decade.

A Dutch person wants a EV, why is BYD Dolphin cheaper than VW ID4? Huge automated ports+COSCO fleet+FTA-> low cost of acquiring Lithium & iron from AUS/Chile Infrastructure for resource trade w/ BRI countries-> Chinese refiners of resources acquire scale-> push out competition Rail & port infrastructure in China & to Europe -> low cost of transporting EVs to EU Huge investment in power infrastructure + resource access + renewables-> very low energy cost vs EU Investment into education infrastructure -> much larger pool of engineers & talents -> faster product development cycle (critical for this move to EVs) & staff capable of operating large automated plants Investment into automation -> BYD very automated -> low labor cost even as Chinese wages go up All this takes planning & investment. I haven't even gotten to the work that BYD did for itself in becoming EV powerhouse Items I listed are generic & BYD just happens to benefit from domestic infrastructure + BRI investments. Subsidies alone cannot possibly drive this move. There is a reason Tesla is shipping cars from Shanghai to Canada & Honda is shipping cars from Shanghai to EU China's industrial policy + infrastructure investment + huge educated population pool lead to much lower cost for high tech products

This is going to disappoint a lot of people, but Yangtze river is too shallow for a nuclear submarine to sink into

Kirin 9000S teardown so surprising Includes CPU, GPU, 5G modem, ISP, DSP + NPU (w/ Ascend lite/tiny cores + TPU) All this squeezed into 110mm2 die w/o stacking abt same as Kirin 9000 (which had 140m transistors/mm2) A15 SoC had all of this, but it was manufactured on N5P process Oh, 9000S in teardown/testing showed better overall CPU performance & power consumption than 9000 & SD 888 + had better peak CPU performance than SD 8 Gen 1 all this w/o advanced packaging + w/ huge floor space dedicated to NPU/TPU which will come in handy for the new Xiaoyi AI phone assistant Tech Insight report will come out soon & we may find out transistor density on 9000s, but this does not look like early N7 or even N6 process. This looks like at least N7+ & possibly more So if we just forget abt the EUV stuff & look at performance of this SoC, does this seem like something fabbed at a node that's even 3 gen behind?

Nikkei reporting from China Semicon China close to de-americanized 7nm production line Sanction free/domestic 5nm supply chain & not helping American chip industry = PRICELESS China achieved this w/ just $47B over 10 yrs CHIPS Act budgeted $52B & has minimal achievement Yet, these media writers are complaining Chin is being wasteful? What a joke src asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec…

This really surprised me since I always thought of US as a major agricultural exporter. Now, it appears farming is on the same trajectory as many other industries. I can understand the tariffs.

Assuming this is the real EU reasoning, while understandable, this is more alarming for Chinese investment than caving into US pressure. I will explain history of Wingtech investment, current fab situations & why this is so disturbing & must be addressed for future China/EU tech cooperation.

Chinese sports cars @ Nürburgring YangWang U9 Xiaomi Su7 Ultra Prototype Zeekr-001FR U9 seems to be jumping around a little bit Has apparently gone over 415km/h Su7 rumored to have set some records This is the last milestone for China's auto industry.

A sign of times. Xiaomi TV A Pro 43 inch is #1 in Japan mkt. I remember of the time when Sony & Panasonic dominated everywhere. And now, a Chinese TV model is winning their home mkt. How Japanese electronics industry have declined.

How lunar mining could work. Helium 3 is a prized asset for nuclear power generation. China is testing out idea of magnetic levitation rotating ejection system, which can throw the collected He-3 back to the earth in the form of magnetic levitation ejection

China has completed 9 flight experiments in 5 categories & achieved horizontal landing of hypersonic aircraft for 1st time after completing near space launch & flight test. 1st time by MD-19 hypersonic vehicle landed in 2020. Now declassified. Can fly @ Mach 7 for long distance.

BYD's 3rd RoRo ship Changzhou has entered service today. It is now outside of Shenzhen. 7000 CEU & LNG dual fuel

BYD Battery CTO said BYD will be putting Full Solid State Battery on mass produced cars by 2027 & see mass proliferation of SSB by 2030. I hear they are already doing extensive testing of SSB in EV models. I would not be surprised if a full SSB model comes out by late 2026. src ithome.com/0/831/179.htm

China will build a full AI ecosystem. Big part of that will be memory chips. CXMT's recent entry into DDR5 mkt is severely under-covered outside of Korean media TechInsight teardown show CXMT 16Gb DDR5 product using D1z/16nm process achieving bit density similar to Micron's 2021 product Samsung & SK also had critical feature of 15.7 to 15.9nm for D1z process.

This entirely reads like someone who has no idea about semiconductor

15 yrs ago, Obama was concerned abt China growing demand overwhelming supply for food/goods, but 11 yrs later, China's protein intake per capita already surpassed US & most EU countries & kept living cost down for Chinese ppl in the process. So now, they complain of overcapacity.

BYD announcing details of its huge 20B investment for largest global R&D center in Shenzhen. Will have 11 research center & 50 frontier tech labs. Looking to attract 60000 high end researchers globally w/ PHD/Master exceeding 50% of that. Comes in 3 phases, 2.26m sqm in phase 1, 480k in phase 2 & 560k in phase 3. This will be a really large campus

Bookmark this moment! BYD hit #2 among global brands in Aug sales Ahead of VW & only behind Toyota globally. How long b4 it surpasses Toyota in a month? Time will find out.

The extent of DeepSeek hype in China cannot be understated. We are getting to the point where Midea's AC units & DreamMe's S50 robot vacuum are integrating w/ full R1 version. Not sure why AC & vacuum needs reasoning model, but such is the demand in China.

Didn't expect myself to get dragged into a long argument, so I will just talk about it here few yrs back, Chinese companies would fire employees that use domestic product instead of proven foreign ones Companies don't like to work w/ unproven partner HW didn't give SMIC time of the day until they were prevented from working w/ TSMC iFlyTek didn't buy AI chips from HW until they got entity listed SMIC didn't start working on de-Americanized fab until Jingcheng fab (after it got entity listed) Baidu & many others didn't start buying AI chips from HW until this new round of sanctions came about Every Chinese automaker started working w/ Horizon Robotics or Black Sesame as a backup after sanctions started CXMT created a new subsidiary just so that it can continue to buy American SMEs for older nodes If you want to believe that China's 2025 project alone was forcing de-risking, that's fine. But it's certainly not based on facts Chinese companies also want to use proven partners, but when the risks from these partners is so high, it would be irresponsible for them to not de-risk All the recent sanctions did something the Chinese govt could never have done by itself. It forced these companies to use the domestic stuff that they don't value as highly