I’ve been asked a few times how I decide to invest in a project (with 7+ years of crypto experience), so here’s my rough framework:
1) IS IT AI-RELATED?
If it's not AI-related, it's not going in my portfolio.
I believe the primary narrative for the 2025 bull market will continue to be AI.
While there will be many winners outside of AI (
$HYPE), I don't want to spread my attention too thin.
Staying on top of everything happening in the AI space alone requires focus, so I'm avoiding other categories (DeFi, NFTs, GameFi, DEXs...).
And honestly, if you're still trading meme coins, you're making your life more stressful than it needs to be.
=====
2) IS IT ON BASE OR SOLANA?
I focus on
@base and
@solana, exclusively, because that's where most AI innovation is happening.
* Base Projects:
Typically, undervalued (
$HEU) and less volatile in price. They're also more likely to get listed on
@Coinbase if they succeed ( $VIRTUAL,
$GAME,
$AIXBT).
* Solana Projects:
Riskier. Even good projects with working products can experience painful drawdowns (
$ALCH,
$GRIFT). Solana is the "jeet chain" of crypto (
$BULLY).
Because of this, I favour Base over Solana.
Bitcoin is how you protect your money, Ethereum (Base) is how you invest it, Solana is how you gamble it.
=====
3) ARE THEY DOING SOMETHING NOVEL?
The competition in AI is intense.
We've seen so many narratives already:
* Alpha AI Agents (
$AIXBT,
$TRISIG,
$NOMAI,
$AGENCY,
$ALPHA).
* Launchpads ( $VIRTUAL,
$VVAIFU,
$HAT).
* Infrastructure ($ai16z, $ZEREBRO,
$ARC,
$GAME,
$REI).
* Investment DAOs ($VADER,
$AIXCB,
$SEKOIA,
$FDREAM).
So, novelty matters to me.
First movers with unique ideas stand out.
But, beware of buzzword-heavy projects claiming to be revolutionary without delivering real value, yet (
$UBC).
Especially if it's on Solana.
However, first-mover leaders tend to stay leaders.
So, while they may have less upside, they're still solid bets which will likely put more money in your pocket ( $VIRTUAL, $ai16z,
$AIXBT).
=====
4) HAVE PEOPLE I TRUST SPOKEN HIGHLY OF IT?
I keep a highly curated list of people I follow to ensure my timeline is only full of alpha.
Most users on X follow too many people.
I'm unhappy that my following count is over 100 right now, I believe that's still too high.
I aim to be as selective as I can with who I follow so that when they talk about a new project, it's worthwhile enough for me to have a closer look at it.
Resources I then use to evaluate projects:
*
@aixbt_agent's terminal (soon to be open to others by
@0rxbt &
@0xWives).
*
@cookiedotfun for insights into which KOLs are discussing the project.
*
@whalewatchalert to check if smart money or whales are buying that project.
However, some of the best alpha can come from smaller accounts with fewer followers.
They're often deep in the trenches and less likely to use you as exit liquidity.
You want to follow people who are surfacing alpha for you on your timeline, not people who got large followings because they know how to build an audience (
@MustStopMurad).
=====
5. IS THE TAM BIG ENOUGH?
Even if the tech is interesting, I skip projects I don't see as potential huge winners ( $H4CK,
$MIZUKI).
I'm glad new projects are being launched, but I'm also in no rush to buy into the flavour of the week at that time (
$REALIS,
$SWARMS).
Usually, I'm happy to be a bit more patient to understand the bigger picture of the long-term goal of the project before buying, in case they do manage to see some adoption (
$FXN).
=====
6) IS THERE A REAL LONG-TERM USE CASE THAT'S VALUABLE?
Most entertainment AI projects fall into this category, which is why I'm not all-in on them (
$LUNA).
While others are cool, but I just don't see the point of them, yet (
$TANK).
I also believe "lore" as a selling point is extremely overrated for anything that isn't Bitcoin (
$GOAT, $FARTCOIN).
=====
7) WOULD USERS / DEVS PAY TO USE THE PRODUCT?
Projects with valuable, sticky products are a big green flag for me.
I can't sell my
$AIXBT because I'd lose access to the alpha terminal—it’s that valuable to me.
Over 51% of
$VADER's supply (including all mine) is locked for 3 months, showing strong belief in the project and access to its investment DAOs.
Premium features for AI dashboards (
$COOKIE) make holding/staking a certain amount of it worthwhile for me.
If I feel compelled to hold the token because it's useful, I believe others will too, and that will likely make the price go up.
=====
SUMMARY
Investing in crypto is a skill I’ve been developing over many years, and it still needs to be honed further.
But, in just two months, my abilities have improved dramatically by spending time in the trenches on X.
The more time I dedicate to X—researching projects and analyzing charts—the sharper my pattern recognition becomes in identifying promising investments.
My timeline is full of alpha because I’ve curated it carefully (it can still be better).
I tweet regularly to journal my trades, justifying my purchases, reflecting on wins and losses to improve.
I still make mistakes.
Missing winners ( $VIRTUAL at $80m mcap), selling too early ( $GRIFFAIN), or top-blasting impatiently (
$ALCH, $PILLZUMI).
But, I know in a forgiving bull market, there are always more opportunities ahead, so I don't get too down on myself.
My goal is to have as few tokens in my portfolio as possible, just high conviction bets.
I like
@terrytjw's quote, "you don't want to over diversify, because that's as good as selling the winners to buy the losers."
=====
THANK YOU
I want to give special thanks to:
1) My old manager, who fired me in September 2024 despite me hitting my numbers (tech sales). It was painful, embarrassing, and unexpected. It shook me for days.
But, ultimately, it was a blessing in disguise because it gave me time to focus on my true passion (crypto) just as the bull market was starting. And, a new category was emerging (AI).
Read the parable of the "Farmer and the Horse"—you never know how things will work out.
2) @00forrest, who first introduced me to
@virtuals_io in the
@sistineresearch private Discord group. I’ve followed him since the 2020 bull market and owe much of my initial success in this cycle to him.
=====
CLOSING THOUGHTS
As X becomes increasingly populated by AI bots, I want to bring a more "human" element to my profile.
So, if you enjoy this kind of content and found it helpful, feel free to follow along.
Let's make 2025 a great year for all of us ♥️