Long Thread Warning (
@vinz0r and I have been cooking):
Has Evo sold up to 60m shares instead of the 30m we know about or 49m we speculate? Could Metaplanet
$MTPLF already be 10% of the way through the 555M share plan? Might Metaplanet be around 15,000 BTC with less debt before July 1? Will they reach 25,000 to 30,000 BTC in July for possibly their fastest double yet?
During the 210M plan (Feb 17 - May 19), Evo Fund (Metaplanet's moving strike warrant partner) had the ability to borrow shares from MMXX Ventures to short on the market, but perhaps they never did. Perhaps they held 19-20M shares and routinely sold those to the market, then exercised the warrants to replenish their position.
1. Why would they hold 19 million shares? Around the start of the 210M plan, there were just under 400M shares outstanding. Japan requires disclosure of >5% holdings of any publicly traded company. Holding 4.xx% may not be a coincidence. They may have held as much as they could without having to disclose either for smarter, covert execution or simply ease of less reporting hassle.
2. Why would they not borrow from MMXX and what evidence is there that they did not? Reporting requirements of short positions are 0.5% of shares outstanding (around 3 million shares now, 2 million before the 210M share plan) which are also a hassle, especially when they sell shares to the market quite frequently. When
@vinz0r and I explored the historical daily short data, we saw nothing from Evo in February, March, April or May. This puzzled us at the time: why didn't they appear on the short position report? Did they short and close intraday? Unlikely, due to warrant mechanics. Did they short and keep the size small? Unlikely too, because we know they sold 110M shares in 10 trading days in May. They should've showed up on the report. Only June 9,10,11 and after have they shown a short on Metaplanet. This strongly implies they've been selling their own shares to the market and replacing those shares with the exercised warrants. No one is worse off here; it's simply cleaner execution.
So, the thought is that Evo prefers to sell their own shares to the market than borrowing from MMXX Ventures and having to report their daily short position. If they did this for the whole 210M plan, it stands to reason that, assuming they hold between 19 and 30M shares now (they haven't had to update in a while as it's <5% now), they likely would have sold those shares recently. Then, borrowing the 30M shares from MMXX and shorting them (this part we know has occurred as it's in the daily short reports).
The thing is, that's 50m or more shares that they likely sold around $11.50-$12.00 and get to buy back (exercising warrants) June 24th for close to $10. If they were able to capture 20% profit there (much higher than typical as they have a set price June 9-24 and the market went way above it), they may have profited as much as 10M shares. If they're able to, why not short those as well? So, let's speculate that ~60M shares of the 555M plan could have already been absorbed by the market. That's >5000 bitcoin potential addition for Metaplanet day 1. Of course, they may also repay the 210M debt or even all their debt and end up around 13k BTC essentially day 1 (or 2ish as it may take them a day or so to get the money, and a day or more to buy the bitcoin).
How might the market respond to this? A 30% increase in BTC holdings may be around 25% BTC yield (some friction due to share dilution). That rescales mNAV by 25% meaning the stock would have to climb 25% to keep at the same mNAV. Then they still have about a week before July 1. 15k in June is not something I'd rule out. No guarantees. Pure speculation with some logic to support. Prediction: the market would go nuts.