Prediction market for startup IPOs.
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Who's gonna IPO first?
A. @OpenAI
B. @NotionHQ
C. @stripe
Guess where you can put some skin in the game for tech startup IPOs soon?
@offmarketfun
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✨Prediction market for AI startups:
⬇️ Daily OpenAI news ⬇️
nitter.app/i/communities/18362043…
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crazy times.. now, ready to bet on whether OpenAI will IPO at $150B or not?
coming soon to @offmarketfun
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Will @OpenAI IPO at $150B, or more?
Reply with Yes or No, and why.
🔵 1 of you wins $6.9 USDC on @base
Sam Altman once made a bet at startup valuations. Soon, you can too.
this is great... back in 2015 - Sam Altman made a massive 'valuation bet'.
the media was saying tech is overhyped, overvalued, and so he outlined a bet on his blog:
It had 3 parts, he had to be right on all 3 to win:
1. LATE STAGE:
Uber / Palantir / AirBnB / Dropbox / Pinterest / SpaceX would 2X in value ($200B)
---> this barely missed, off by one year. Currently these are currently worth ~$520B+
2. MID STAGE:
Companies like stripe, coinbase, instacart etc. would be worth 3X in value ($27B)
---> this hit (and stripe alone is currently worth $90B)
3. EARLY STAGE:
The YC batch, worth $0 at the time, would be worth $3B.
--> This hit also. (and currently one company Gitlab itself ended up beign worth $8B)
Less vague opinions, more bets
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$1B revenue is a huge milestone!
we may have to create @AnthropicAI IPO prediction market in addition to the @OpenAI IPO prediction on @offmarketfun soon ✨
.@dee_bosa reports that genAI darling @anthropic is telling investors it's expecting $1B in revenue this year, an increase of more than 1000% yoy, with 60-75% of sales from third-party API and just 15% from chatbot subscriptions
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OpenAI IPO at $150B or higher - the bull case keeps getting beefier.
If you could bet USDC @base on bull/bear cases, what is your choice?
👍 Yes
👎 No
Jony Ive finally confirms the OpenAI AI device.
Sam is insane. He managed to seal a chatgpt distribution deal with Apple while collaborating on an iPhone killer with Apple’s top designers.
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Competition from @AnthropicAI is heating up.
Will OpenAI IPO at $150B or higher?
👍 Yes | 👎 No
Coming soon on @offmarketfun
⬇️ Join the pre-launch community ⬇️
Scoop: OpenAI rival Anthropic has started talking to investors about raising capital in a deal that could value the startup at $30 billion to $40 billion, roughly doubling its valuation from a funding that closed early this year. w/ @anissagardizy8 theinformation.com/articles/…
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if Mira were to join Anthropic..
Bull/Bear on OpenAI may switch @offmarketfun real fast
More thoughts on OpenAI: it is a *statement* for Mira and the head of research to resign during a fundraise.
They are likely prohibited from saying anything negative if they want to keep their equity, so the timing of their departure is the most powerful statement they can make.
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local alternative to ChatGPT where you can pick models like llama.
likely how Apple thinks of it.
bullish on OpenAI still?
⬇️ it’s free ⬇️
today @mainframe is open-sourcing and releasing a testflight beta of fullmoon
an experimental app to chat with private and local large language models like llama
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why you gotta seek that invite code for @offmarketfun beta:
1. OpenAI is white hot with intense bulls/bears
2. @base is roaring
3. @offmarketfun launching with USDC on @base
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👀 OpenAI saga gets spicier each day.
Bull/Bear debates getting more and more intense on @offmarketfun 🟢
JUST IN: Apple $AAPL is now reportedly no longer involved in discussions to invest in OpenAI or board discussions per WSJ
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SearchGPT seems 🔥
seems like SEO < GEO very soon enough.. OpenAI doing something right.
BREAKING NEWS 🔥 OpenAI wins big as SearchGPT gives brands 4x more referrals vs. Perplexity, Claude
Even though SearchGPT is still in limited beta, its growth rate is 150% as per latest data from BrightEdge. Remember, SearchGPT’s search market share is still just a blip compared to Google. I have earlier shared insights from Google’s head of search Liz about utilizing AI to improve ads significantly and meet the users with commercial intent.
Artificial Intelligence is giving rise to generative engine optimization (GEO) and revolutionizing digital marketing and key strategies to optimize for AI-driven search
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🟢-’ @offmarketfun is an mfer.
Market for Events & Results
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with all these spicy OpenAI details, there’s gotta be a prediction market for it.
recent bull:
o1 + not $100B, but $150B record breaking oversubscribed round with Apple, NVIDIA in it
recent bear:
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Prediction market on @offmarketfun :
AI rap battle.
Claude battles ChatGPT and Perplexity judges.
Which side would you bet on?
A. Claude
B. ChatGPT
C. Where's @grok
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OpenAI is nothing without its people.
or.. is it?
follow @offmarketfun to put some skin in the game on whether it’s nothing or still something.
coming soon 🟢
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👀VP of OpenAI also leaving today.
Real time game of thrones happening over there.
Meanwhile, if you wanna bet on OpenAI’s future, follow @offmarketfun
I posted this note to OpenAI.
Hey everybody, I have decided to leave OpenAI.
This was a very difficult decision as I have has such an incredible time at OpenAI. I got to join right before ChatGPT and helped build the post-training team from scratch with John Schulman and others. I feel so grateful to have gotten the opportunity to run the post-training team and help build and scale ChatGPT to where it is today. Right now feels like a natural point for me to explore new opportunities outside of OpenAI. This is a personal decision based on how I want to evolve the next phase of my career.
I am very grateful for all the opportunities OpenAI has given me and all the support I have gotten from OpenAI leadership such as Sam and Greg. I am in particular grateful for everything Bob has done and for being an excellent manager and colleague to me over my career at OpenAI. The post-training team has many many talented leaders and is being left in good hands.
OpenAI is doing and will continue to do incredible work and I am very optimistic about the future trajectory of the company and will be rooting everybody on.
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$6.6B in new funding at a $157B post-money valuation 👀
$7B more than the rumored $150B
bull or bear now?
OpenAI has finally closed its long-awaited $6.6B round at a $157B valuation. Investors include Nvidia, Microsoft, Softbank, Khosla, Tiger Global & others, according to sources familiar.
cnbc.com/2024/10/02/openai-r…
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which do you prefer for building simple apps?
A. Nimble Claude by @AnthropicAI
B. Good old @ChatGPTapp
C. @Replit
D. ?
ever wonder whether you should go to the gym today?
⬇️ i made an AI app for that using Claude @AnthropicAI within 5 seconds ⬇️
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👀 @SoftBank finally sinks their teeth in at the hotly debated big fish.
Will this be their darling like @DoorDash ? or like the epic flop @WeWork ?
Wager on the fate of @OpenAI IPO soon on @offmarketfun 📈
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Anthropic is something with OpenAI people.
Another OpenAI Co Founder joins @AnthropicAI
🔥🟢🔥
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DM @startupoppa for invites!
OpenAI’s second wave of leadership exodus got me sliding into DMs with @offmarketfun invites.
‘Wanna wager bull/bear on OpenAI’s IPO?’
📈 Conversion rate
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As a follow up to Sam Altman’s famous ‘valuation bet’ from 2015 on @Uber @PalantirTech @Airbnb @Dropbox @stripe -
OpenAI’s IPO valuation bet coming soon on @offmarketfun 📈
this is great... back in 2015 - Sam Altman made a massive 'valuation bet'.
the media was saying tech is overhyped, overvalued, and so he outlined a bet on his blog:
It had 3 parts, he had to be right on all 3 to win:
1. LATE STAGE:
Uber / Palantir / AirBnB / Dropbox / Pinterest / SpaceX would 2X in value ($200B)
---> this barely missed, off by one year. Currently these are currently worth ~$520B+
2. MID STAGE:
Companies like stripe, coinbase, instacart etc. would be worth 3X in value ($27B)
---> this hit (and stripe alone is currently worth $90B)
3. EARLY STAGE:
The YC batch, worth $0 at the time, would be worth $3B.
--> This hit also. (and currently one company Gitlab itself ended up beign worth $8B)
Less vague opinions, more bets
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talk is cheap. skin in the game on that topic on @offmarketfun
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Meta is out for blood from not only OpenAI, but also Google.
JUST IN:
Mark Zuckerberg and $META are working on a search engine that uses the web to provide conversational answers about current events to people using its Meta AI chatbot - The Information
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offmarket.fun is the arena
DM @startupoppa for early access code
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Do you agree? disagree?
Talk is cheap - meet other gladiators in the arena
🏟️⚔️🏟️⚔️🏟️
offmarket.fun
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👀 another one after @ssi
OpenAI mafia building OpenAI competitors
BREAKING NEWS 🔥 Mira Murati, former OpenAI CTO to raise $100M for new AI startup
The company will train proprietary models to build AI products. Barret Zoph from OpenAI is expected to join the company too.
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This is in addition to the latest $6.6B in funding, brining their liquidity to $10B+
In addition, OpenAI is now asking investors to refrain from investing in competitors.
- @AnthropicAI
- @xai
- @ssi
- @perplexity_ai
- @glean
Intense!
NEW: OpenAI now has a $4B revolving line of credit, bringing its total liquidity to more than $10B. Based on current rates, OpenAI will be paying roughly 6% on money that it borrows right away.
Participating banks: JPMorgan Chase, Citi, GS, MS & more. cnbc.com/2024/10/03/openai-g…
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welcoming retail to @offmarketfun soon 👀
thnx to @MLeeJr for heads up!
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