Visited this factory in China. Before they needed 10 people, now only one is in charge🤦‍♂️

This is what China zero Covid policy looks like now 😅👇

He hasn’t tweeted today about tariffs. Strange he comments on every subject and country multiple times a day….

Talked to international friends at C-level (CEO-CFO) in China for multinational companies Not even one, thinks China will negotiate and cave in All agree it’s a economic suicidal for US If you never travel and talk to people you are brainwashed by propaganda machine

This week after the tariffs announcement I sent email inquiries to 7 different manufacturers in a country I won’t name Result? 0 replies When I contact a Chinese factory, I have their WeChat within 20 minutes and samples next day if needed You know what I mean now…

BMW sales in China -30% Porsche -30% Mercedes -13% It's now super cheap to buy electric cars. Fully charging a car is a few dollars vs tens of dollar for gas In the new economy even you don't show up with a BMW or Benz you can save your face with a tech car End of an era

I don’t understand why @elonmusk is burning all the bridges with one political party while working for the government (Spacex) He is still young and will go through several election cycles I remember the Agnelli patriarch (owner of Stellantis/Ferrari): they navigated through fascists, communists, church, left and right Never took a position he notoriously always said: I m pro government whoever is at the government

2022: one of the worst year in my life in China. Two months of lockdown for nothing (got Covid anyway) Before the propaganda will turn it, into a great success story of Chinese government, please don’t forget we witnessed one of the worst pages in modern history - remember 👇

We are entering soon year 4 of Covid. The world is open and living (almost) normal life. Here in China still stubbornly keep on building quarantine camps.

Someone must explain me why China can still ask for negative Covid test to enter the country (after 3 yrs humiliating passengers with prison quarantine) and it is normal. But if a foreign country asks for a test to Chinese passengers then it is: useless, political and racist…

Me, running a retail business in Shanghai with Covid 0 👇👇

Most shipments to US are halted Within a couple of months shelves at big box retailers will be empty, but also many US manufacturers will have to suspend productions due to lack of materials You cannot suddenly replace 500 billions of purchases

you pay $10 for a pair of shoes in China and sell it for 100. Your margin is 90% Now with tariff the cost is $15 So you increase your price by 5 to 105 but now your margin in 85%! You want keep you margin at 90%? Need to increase price to 150 Or you eat your margin

China is running the numbers and know that within 1-3 months US will feel the shortages (both finished products and intermediate) 3-6 months will equal to a recession They want to negotiate from a stronger position with leverage: they wait This is the REAL art of the deal !

Last two weeks of my life in Shanghai: - daughters school closed for 7 days - our building locked today I won’t let some bureaucrat ruin our life. This is too much. I can make money in Europe as well. That’s it

Let me repeat this easy concept: China has no hurry to sign a deal anytime soon With 50% shipments blocked there are 20 bn worth of goods monthly not reaching US Most are intermediate Soon productions have to be stopped and shelves empty Why sign a deal now? Makes no sense

That’s why electric cars are so popular in China Look at the electricity price This also is valid for other industries manufacturing costs

Of all the rogue countries in the work picking a fight with Denmark?? One of the most civilized 🤦‍♂️

China has the upper hand in the negotiations with US US consumers will feel the pain soon and they are not used to tightening the belt (+ high debt) Chinese can take a lot of pain (I saw it first hand). Like a lot, you have no idea in the west….

I want to HUG this Chinese guy! Strongly!

I am a retailer in Shanghai. In the last 3 years: - 2020 lost 6 months - 2021 open all year but with many logistical problems/delays - 2022 on-off lockdowns Tell me how it’s possible to run a business in this country…

A friend is an exec in a automotive global company that everyone's know they have a factory in Mexico now hit with a 25% tax (business is broken now) He told me yesterday that to build a factory in US it takes 2 years, then you have the ramp up for another 2 years, to return on the investment takes 6-8 years What if they build and then tariffs disappears? They would end up with two factories competing with each other!

I have the feeling this time that China wants to completely break up with US Maybe at the end they will make a deal, but this time will be at the Chinese terms (or they walk away) They are done with Trump Maybe will deal in 4 yrs with the next administration

RIP Anfu Road Shanghai Today they killed the most hipster streets of China (like a Carnaby St. in London). It is near the epicenter of protests. We opened our shop 5 yrs ago and contributed to grow it into a modern fashion street. Look what they did…..👇

So my iphone now is stuck in an endless bootloop. Can't turn it on! I want to go to Shanghai Apple store, but my green code is on the phone, and i can't access the code cause phone is stuck.... I can only live on the borders of society. If this is our future...REALLY SCARY!

Only 22000 foreigners still living in Beijing If you consider the number of embassies and diplomats it’s really a low number It’s down 40-50% from a decade ago Shanghai has maybe a bit more but it’s down a lot from peak time In future even less scmp.com/news/china/diplomac…

See the difference in leadership: Trump says to other countries (including 'allies') to 'kiss his ass' Xi moves his ass and travels to South Ease Asia to fortify China influence In times of crises you see the real leaders

Tonight there was a protest in central Shanghai, a vigil turned into chants against the government and Covid 0. Young people now can see the rest of the world can move freely, so they realize there is something wrong in Covid 0. Unfortunately i expect more crackdowns. Sadly

Chinese manufacturer BYD only hit with 17.4% duty in EU. This is a wellcome gift for BYD. Expect BYD to dominate European electric cars market within 10 years.

Many Chinese complain about distorted Western media. What they don't understand is: 1) China closed for 3 years 2) few VISA to press 3) journos living here are harassed 4) most expat have left China for good 5) no open internet Not incentive to tell a good story, right?

Another day another lockdown! Now all schools in Shanghai are closed for another week. This is totally out of control and irresponsible behavior to punish young generations. Totally impossible to live in China

Unlike many “experts” that haven’t even been to China and are blaterating on this disgraced app, I’m here in the tranches Saturday afternoon at our shop in Shanghai where we sell fashion to local consumers (the most competitive market in the world but we are 8 years in)

Anfu road Shanghai, the fashion street of China where we have an Italian fashion shop. We gave our little contribution to raise the quality level and diversity, with hard work and passion in the last 5 years… How it started: How it ended:

3 years wasted on building quarantine camps, testing sites, employing millions of people just to lock down others and the number of ICUs in hospitals in China is less than Mongolia. Reopening will be tough without investing in hospitals infrastructures.

54% from China Many importers have just been wiped out Probably they even voted for Trump Winners are the Chinese factories that are able to sell directly to consumers; even at this level can still sell Expect strong reaction from China; they won’t cave in

I can confirm anecdotally that many Chinese in my children school left Shanghai for US Quite a good number. All wealthy Shanghainese families It’s quite normal every year, almost physiological, but lately there’s been an acceleration asia.nikkei.com/Business/Mar…

Now you know why automotive industry is dead: this is the inside of a electric vehicle Almost no parts….

Simple thought: if US unemployment is only 4.2% why you want to bring back low value manufacturing ??? Just focus on what you are doing already well tech, high value added productions, cut some costs, put the house in order and that’s it

Chinese CDC officially declared that 80% of population has had Omicron. It means 1.1 billions people had Covid in the last month. Mortality rate for lighter Omicron is 0.3% of infected (in all the world). So this means at least 3.3 million deaths in the last 30 days in China.

I am in rural China now Only small hotels Got refused because foreigner!🤦‍♂️ Finally just found one that accepts me This despite new regulations from the central government Obviously implementation is discretionary Still a long way to go…

Navigating "Chinese factory language" isn't easy. Here's a helpful guide I put together: "We will try our best to ship..."= not gonna happen "Let me ask my boss for a discount"=price will not change "Let me check with my team" = Not possible to produce "Sure, no problem we can do"=they buy from another factory "We do good quality product"=expect problems "Give me your target price"=so we can add 30% "We are packaging"=50% still not finished "Please make order before CNY (Chinese new year)"=factory has no business "Some workers still not back from CNY"=factory empty, will have delays "Please pay before CNY"=have no money to pay salaries "We give you cheap price, have no profit"=they make money "Pay before shipment"=don't trust you "My boss invites you for dinner"=must go out and get drunk "Let's have lunch"=interruption in the middle of a meeting at 11:00am "We are shareholders in this factory"=this is just a supplier they buy from

Have you noticed that the most enthusiastic about bringing manufacturing back are people that never spent a day on a factory floor? Good luck 🤦‍♂️

Today they start to install surveillance cameras at the door of every shop in Shanghai. Officially is to check that the green code is scanned, but once you have cameras you can use AI for many purposes. This means Covid 0 is not ending soon and who knows what comes next…

Every factory owner in Vietnam says that the productivity of Chinese workers is 3x of a Viet Viet labour cost is lower but offset by lower productivity Also supply chain depends heavily on China (components, materials) Logistics also a bit more expensive Guys it’s tough…

So now Maersk has given up on Red Sea. If nobody intervenes, we lose Suez Canal and we are back to 100 years ago navigation 🤦‍♂️

Talked to different foreign managers in multinational companies in Shanghai. Same comment: China has destroyed all the goodwill built in 2 decades, in the last 12 months with erratic Covid management, showing the real face. Once you lose trust, it’s really difficult to regain.

The vessel in the picture below is a ro-ro ship: large cargo ships designed to carry wheeled cargo, especially electric vehicles (EV). Typically four to six of these ships used to be built worldwide every year. But for 2023 China has ordered sixty car carriers, and another sixty ROROs are to be added in 2024. These are ships that can transport 4,500 to 8,000 cars. Starting in 2025, when these freighters are all fully operational, we will see a huge expansion of Chinese car exports. At that point the Suez Canal will be fully operational? What will the Chinese government do to safeguard their own companies? Soon they have to take a active role and not just hoping that someone else cover for them.....

I remember a foreigner neighbor praising Covid 0 policy last March before the big lockdown in Shanghai and how great was living in China while rest of the world suffered with cases, etc etc. After lockdown started he and his family left China and I haven’t seen them since…..

As a foreigner in China you know that you can live here only for a limited time. You are never be totally integrated and at one point you must leave. Nobody is dreaming to retire here. Better to start planning exit earlier than later…

Currently at a trade show in Vietnam: Nobody knows how to handle US market now (wait and see) Lots of Chinese factories with shipments on hold (big cash problem soon) if you order from Vietnam now but then China tariffs are cut, you lose money If China tariffs stay higher than 60% may switch some production to Vietnam Everyone across all countries agree that what America is doing is a own goal

Mass exodus from Shanghai. Most are probably people going back to their hometown after 2 months without job and salary. For example there are more than 20.000 restaurants in Shanghai that have been closed for two months. Service economy decimated.

Without smartphones all this mess of pandemic and Covid 0 controls would have never happened. Not later than 10 years ago, we wouldn’t have had all this: green codes, contact tracing and related lockdowns. All been enabled by technology mass diffusion….

Reading comments here that US can replace 500bn of imports frm China moving to other countries So naive Even if you find production capacity, it will mostly be assembling Chinese components, so at the end of the day you pay more for the same products you buy now Genius👏

Imagine you are Walmart Everyday you send 2000-3000 containers from China to US From tomorrow you have to pay 54% tax and have terms with suppliers What you do? Pay tariffs and then renegotiate with your supplier a heavy discount Possible a 50 off Many factories will go down

I feel like China is on another planet. While millions of people are locked due to Covid 0 policy, the rest of the world is living a normal life, even having fun in stadium without masks! See World Cup now 👇

Xi has given up on US at this point Can take whatever hit The next move is on Trump: if he retaliates with more tariffs he destroys lots of companies and crash the market They have to find a way out where both look winners It’s a war of personal egos now (on our skin)

For those who plan to stay In Shanghai for the next 2-3 years here is our future: a) lockdown every month b) tests every 2 days c) visit Covid camp at least once a year for 15 days d) no traveling overseas (or extremely difficult and expensive + risky) Be prepared. I told you…

It's incredible what the Dutch government did to its own semiconductor champion To follow US it basically bankrupted Nexperia And now Trump has made a deal with China changing again the rules Now the Dutch are left holding the bag. Hopefully the new coming gov will fix this

EU 🇪🇺sales to US 🇺🇸 530 bn EU 🇪🇺sales to China 🇨🇳 230 bn So we give up our biggest customer to follow Monsieur Macron?🤌🤌🤌

Chinese government wants to ban Apple to reciprocate Huawei ban in US. What they don’t realize is: 1) Chinese love Apple / Americans don’t care of Huawei 2) Apple employs hundreds of thousands of young Chinese in areas of high unemployment I call it a self boycott 🤦‍♂️

In our shop in Shanghai, only this week, 6 different foreign customers announced they are leaving China between now and next June. On top of the tens of tens that already left….

China export always growing There’s no other place to produce at this scale and price Even tariffs won’t change the trend

A foreign friend is trying to sell his apartment in Shanghai. It’s in a top building, high end neighborhood. Don’t know the price but guess in the millions. He hasn’t received an offer in months even after few reductions. Market is frozen, so he rented out in the meantime.

Traveling to China for business has become really complicated for first timers: download WeChat+Alipay, connect with credit cards, download DiDi for taxis. If you don’t have a credit card don’t even try to enter the country, cash is almost useless. Tourists? Who dares to come..

So sad to see that Chinese government is cracking down on people wearing Halloween costumes and parties🎃 If it’s spontaneous and joyful let the kids have fun Ironically most of Halloween costumes are produced……in China 🤦‍♂️

Most foreigners who moved to China as expat stay 3 to 5 years max. Those that stay longer: 1) have own business; 2) marry with a local; 3) can’t get job elsewhere at same conditions Of those 3 groups above, nobody plans to retire in China.

China is banning all tutoring activities! I have two kids in Shanghai schools and I can see that all their Chinese classmates have multiple extra classes everyday especially during weekends! I personally am against tutoring unless really needed to catch up with a subject. For this reason we seldom use tutors. On the other hand, I am for free choice/free market and if someone wants to do extra class should be free to do it. I am liberal and can’t get how a government can intervene in a private choice. In any case, I can tell you that all the Chinese school system is based on tutoring both for academic and economic reasons. Academic: It starts with the preparation: most students prepare with tutors for the upcoming lessons. Students with tutoring already know what’s coming next in a specific subject and during class at school the teacher proceeds quickly on to the next subject. Students that have not tutoring if are not quick to grab the new concepts are left behind. Some forever and are forgotten, others are forced do tutoring if they want to survive. Economic: teachers are poorly paid and many make extra money with tutoring. That’s why the system is self perpetrated and encouraged. I don’t think it’s possible to enforce the ban, unless they REALLY want to do it and use the local guards to report kids going to teachers homes…..it’s complex but they can do if want. In addition many lessons are online, so it becomes almost impossible to track. For these reasons I think that nothing will change. Plus if the government really want to enforce the ban, there will be a dramatic drop in performance of the students that are NOT used to study by themselves as they do tutoring starting from the age of 3 yrs old. If so we will see the effects of the ban in 2-3 yrs. Maybe (who knows?) the government sees too many graduates unemployed and want to dissuade youngsters to pursue higher studies and encourage to work more in practical jobs less intellectual. We will see what happens…..

Porsche sales in China are collapsing despite growing everywhere else I. The world I don’t buy the narrative that Chinese rich are buying electric cars I think is deeper than this, they are simply not spending (still have cash but not spending now)

So it seems that China will impose tariffs on European dairy, pork and potentially other food products. This is the retaliation for the EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars. Truth is, China has more to lose than EU, since it exports more than it imports.

The perils of living in a communist country: “China to set annual salary cap for those that work in finance” The brightest talents obviously will leave the country or will start their own business to make money. scmp.com/business/china-busi…

Chinese government now looks like one of those Shanghainese landlord that refuses to renegotiate the rent and rather keep the apartment empty for a year losing money Very tough to negotiate with

When I’m in China within the great firewall, I can easily estimate a loss of 40-60 minutes of productivity everyday. Slow uploading of websites, apps, download of emails, files, drawings. And I don’t do heavy files. Great Firewall increases digital divide and reduces GDP

Yesterday, China Q1 growth was reported at a staggering 5.3%! Wow booming times! Today LVMH reports -6% sales in China. What's going on? If you follow me (you should) I said well in advance that Q1 was a bloodbath for Chinese consumers economy. Even GDP numbers are true, it is a growth based on old communist recipes: government spending to build roads and fast trains to nowhere. (most of the biggest infrastructures are done already). They need a shift of mindset that unfortunately cannot happen given the dynamics of power. So we are stuck forever in public works spending. I don't know when we hit the bottom, I don't see any sign yet. When i see any, you will be the first to know. I am on the ground, we sell to Chinese consumers, we speak to them everyday, we talk to other Chinese and international operators, so i can tell you what happens in the real economy (not in the propaganda economy). I don't have any boss to please other than my customers...

If you live in China and have to decide whether to stay or go, ask yourself 2 questions: - can I emotionally live under the stress of lockdown + quarantine? - do I make more money here than in another place? This situation won’t change for next 2-3 yrs….possibly more.

A Chinese classmate of my daughter (14 yrs old) said, in perfect english with American accent: i am a capitalist at heart, but communist in the brain! This dichotomy shows the state of confusion in today's Chinese society. On one hand the lure and flashy symbols of capitalism, with the legitimate desire to create wealth; on the other hand the pressures from the government to follow their ideas unconditionally. The problem is that these two concepts, capitalism and communism, are irreconcilable. Capitalism necessitates rule of law, accountability and separation of powers. In this modern Chinese communism, all the three above are absent. I think most of young Chinese are confused by this society (get rich + nationalistic government). But i am also hopeful that next generation maybe will find a way to correct these contradictions.

During Shanghai lockdown, I wrote on the compound chat that Covid 0 was useless as the virus will come back soon. Some Chinese neighbor told me to leave China and that they were proud to fight a war against the virus. I wonder how they feel now they lost a useless war…

Me, building a business in China as a foreigner....😱

Tesla sales dropping -63% in China Chinese are quietly realizing that it doesn’t make sense to buy essentially a Chinese car (made all in Shanghai) to enrich an owner who supports a hostile US policy Slowly all American brands sales will drop unless a reverse in US policy

90% of Chinese are still wearing a mask, even outdoor. Yet, according to CDC more than 80% of the population has been infected in the last 45 days. We can conclude that masks are useless. Do we all agree on this?

That’s why I don’t travel in China during holidays 🤦‍♂️👇

Interesting list of the American businesses that failed in China. Nevertheless there are notable successes too: Apple, Starbucks, Tesla. Any other I missed?

Been saying for long time that consumers economy in China is in a free fall. Not shocked to see the top jewelry retailers sales -26%. Not even gold is spared The country is in full recession. Only certain sectors still resilient (ex: export)

This guy is about to lose his multi millions package and I feel sorry for him. But, you can’t defend you job playing the freedom of speech card, when TikTok is banned in China. I’d change argument otherwise is he implying that China is illiberal? 🤦‍♂️

I have a shop in one of the most popular street in Shanghai. All the retailers I talk to, have their business down compared to last year. Chinese are not spending. I think 2023 will be even worse.

10 days ago there was a protest near our shop in Shanghai. The most peaceful and cutest protest I’ve seen in my life (flowers and chants). Since then they boarded the road with blue barriers and police (100+). Sale are down 90% Hundreds of people will lose job soon

Finally spotted a new Xiaomi electric car in Shanghai. What do you notice?

Never heard so many ambulances in Shanghai like today….

Signs of the times: a dismantled Renault dealership.👇👇 Middle foreign brands that once pioneered Chinese auto market are leaving. Only foreign luxury cars have a chance, as they give status to the owners. Rest of market will be local brands. China dream is over.

Lots of people on this app (who don't know about anything manufacturing): "India will produce all Chinese goods for US!" Reality: In 2024-25, India imported Chinese merchandise worth $113.45 billion, a 11.5% jump from $101.73 billion imported the previous financial year

Mood of the day…

China must make a choice NOW: 1) let the contagion spread, suffer huge contagion for 6-8 months and then restart growth 2) keep Covid 0 policy, slowly destroy economy and delay big contagion later (after another 2 or 3 years) No other way

Just one day after everyone went euphoric for quarantine reduction from 10 days to 8, this morning we got a surprise visit at our shop. They come to install camera at the door of all the shops including mine. For those who think China is reopening soon…..👇👇

If you buy from Chinese factories, especially the smaller one, don't be afraid to call everyday to ask about your products. Even 2-3 minutes calls are enough. Use wechat or call directly on their mobile. In critical times call on Sat/Sunday too. No shame, it's normal here

There are 25 mil people living in Shanghai. Every 3 days we must have a Covid test. This means about 7 mil tests/day (estimated). Est. cost is 4 rmb=28 mil rmb day=4 mil USD/day. This more than 1 bn dollars a year cost for Shanghai gov. How long can be sustainable?

The sudden ‘reopening’ in China has created a new category of people: the nostalgic of lockdown. As infections spread, these people are self locking at home, avoid public spaces, only order online. Waiting for government to tell them what do, they feel lost, without guide.

Just back to Italy for a summer break: - internet is fast (easy compared to fire walled China) - no matter what you read of economic crisis, demographic collapse etc, everyone is leaving for the weekend - food quality and related culture is unimaginable in other countries - prices are up - electric cars won’t happen soon (too expensive to buy and operate) - nobody talks about business - everyone complains but nobody gives up on vacations - Milan is packed with Americans

China used to be a great place to start business for foreign entrepreneurs who came from all over the world. After 3 yrs of Covid 0, this is all gone. It’s a big loss for innovation, diversity and more international lifestyle for local consumers. What a pity

EU buys from China 620 bn, growing like crazy, but sells to 🇨🇳 only 240 bn, flat for many years. Who would you think has more leverage? In real world, the seller would travel to the big customers and do whatever to please them. Here 👇 exact opposite 🤦‍♂️

How to make 100.000 usd/year net, in rural China using automation. My friend in Shandong province makes 100k usd in his pocket just with this laser cutting machine. It cuts metal sheets 24/7 run by 2 ladies. Machine costs usd 30k.

The last 30 days of 2022 in China have been crazy. It all started with protests right in front of our Shanghai shop (partly contributed to end Covid 0 policy), followed next day by the closure of the street that almost killed our business. Then reopening and we all got Covid!