RacetotheWH predicts elections and tracks the latest polling. In 2022, it led all forecasters in calling the highest # of Senate and Gov. Races correctly.
Washington D.C.
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Rating Shifts in the RacetotheWH Forecast since the Launch on Monday:
Maine: Likely D to Safe D
ME-2: Lean R to Tilt R
NE-2: Tilt D to Lean D
New Mexico: Likely D to Safe D
Texas: Lean R to Likely R
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Yeah, but I bet most of them weren't a Senator. That comes with a certain responsibility. We should expect Senators to set a good example. If everyone acted like Graham did, we'd have more sick Americans
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I'll never get why Michelle Obama is included in every poll, when she has made it clear she won't run for any office.
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This is the real reason - Brooks fell to third place and Trump didn't want to be embarrassed. You'll find few if any more loyal followers than Mo Brooks
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For the first time, RacetotheWH averaged over 10 thousand views a day last week! Thanks for following our work!
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The dividing line in the GOP primary is education. Among voters with a 4-year degree, Donald Trump's support is at 38%. With the rest of the party, he's winning nearly 60% of the vote.
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Track the latest presidential polling for every state at RacetotheWH racetothewh.com/president/po…
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Election Forecast Update from RacetotheWH
House Forecast:
Chance to Win: Democrats 52.2%, GOP 47.8%
Seats: Democrats 218, GOP 217
Senate Forecast:
Chance to Win: Democrats 41.8%, GOP 58.2%
Seats: Democrats 48.1, GOP 51.9
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When the GOP wins Arizona, our Senate forecast has them taking the majority over 95% of the time. However, the race is going to be a harder win than Michigan despite AZ's redder hue, thanks to Dem's edge in candidate recruitment.
If Republicans can flip Arizona, they'll almost certainly win the Senate majority. However, Democrat Ruben Gallego has an early edge in the race over Republican Kari Lake. Here's the new RacetotheWH interactive forecast for Arizona. racetothewh.com/arizona
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Twelve days after the State of the Union, Joe Biden has cut Donald Trump's lead in half, though he still trails in the national polling average.
Before: Biden 43.44% Trump 45.47% (R+2.03%)
Today: Biden 44.65% Trump 45.69% (R+1.04%)
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Oregon and Colorado seem like big misses to me too. If the Republicans get a proper red tidal wave (R+7-8 and & beyond), there's a shot those go into play. Doubtful they could take advantage with the current candidates.
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Shift in the Iowa Polling Average in the Last 150 Days
Gained Support:
+14% Trump
+10% Scott
+5% Vivek
+3% Christie & Haley
Lost Support:
-15% DeSantis
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I'm projecting Terry McAuliffe to pull this out by 2.1% in my Virginia Forecast. It was one of the most accurate forecast in 2020. racetothewh.com/virginia
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Maggie Hassan position is getting stronger in NH. Our newest update shows its a Tilt D race. racetothewh.com/senate/nh
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That's not really how power or politics works. Just because you are one out of 1/100 Senators doesn't mean you write the whole tax code. The only tax bill Biden played a pivotal role in raised taxes for the wealthy and cut them for the middle class - and that was as VP
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Ready for election night? This is what you can expect to see - hour by hour as the polls close. racetothewh.com/blog/electio…
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Here's the full prediction, which now includes the latest polling, broken down by demographic group racetothewh.com/pennsylvania
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Like the charts? They are from our FL Senate Forecast at RacetotheWH. Here's the full prediction racetothewh.com/senate/flori…
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Ohio is shifting towards Biden. Seriously - if it moves even another half percent , he'll have a better shot there then North Carolina. It's becoming a genuine battleground state - and could expand Biden's path to 270 racetothewh.com/president/ba…
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We are tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Presidential Race at RacetotheWH, including an electoral college map showing the leader in each state. racetothewh.com/president/po…
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Polling was showing Gavin Newsom was struggling mightily with Latino voters. Now, after new polling from Survey USA, he appears to be doing much better. It goes to show how much Democrats' success could be dependent on maintaining their Latino coalition.
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Andrew Yang lead in the NYC Mayor's race has only grown in recent weeks. Track the latest polling in our new NYC Interactive Feature at RacetotheWH! racetothewh.com/nycmayor
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Iowa was supposed to be a slam dunk for the GOP - but the Senate Race is now a tossup. How did it happen? Democrats made a big gamble, going all in on a race that most pundits didn’t even think was in play.
racetothewh.com/blog/iowa-se…
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Exciting News! Race to the WH outperformed FivethirtyEight in predicting the final result on average - for both the Presidential & Senate elections, in states that have reported over 95% of the vote.
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Jon Ossoff has just taken the lead against David Perdue. Barring a shocking turn of events, Democrats have secured a majority in the U.S. Senate. Georgia will send two Democrats to the U.S. Senate in a stunning rebuke to the Donald Trump era of American politics
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California Forecast - Newsom Finally Breaks Through, Chance of Winning Surges Above 80% After New Poll racetothewh.com/cagov21
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Next week, we will be launching a new CA Senate Primary Forecast. Yesterday, we launched our first Senate primary forecast for the Texas Senate race, where Colin Allred is breaking away from the field
racetothewh.com/senate/24/te…
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Here's a thread explaining why my forecast still has McAuliffe ever so slightly favored - and some underlying assumptions I made that might not prove true in Virginia.
In my Virginia Forecast, there is a huge clash between the polling and the fundamentals. As a result, even though Youngkin is ahead by almost 1% in the polling, I still have McAuliffe slightly ahead.
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New mini-update: Our polling average now also includes a 90 day trendline for each swing state, so you can focus in on recent changes in the race.
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Iowa is quite close (In polls, Trump up <1%) but because Trump blew most of his cash, he's going dark, right as Biden starts his ads up. Bet this could happen in Ohio (Biden +1.5%) too.
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Exciting new feature. I spent a few dozen hours perfecting this in the past weekend, and I think you'll like it! Updated daily
The Governor Primary Polling Tracker is now live at RacetotheWH🚨🚨🚨
At launch, it includes:
1. Arizona
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. New York
7. Pennsylvania
8. Texas & a few more!
racetothewh.com/governor/pri…
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Following the new poll, Gavin Newsom's chances of winning have surged to 80% in the California Recall Forecast, run using a similar forecast that correctly called Democrats double victory in the Georgia Senate Primary. racetothewh.com/cagov21
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Black Lives Matters has already transformed the way white Americans view systemic racism - reminiscent of the March on Selma 55 years ago. racetothewh.com/blog/blackli…
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Joe Biden has opened up a 9.3% lead against Trump - his largest margin of the year. It also happens to be a larger lead then Hillary Clinton OR Barack Obama ever had in 08 & 12. Check out the latest polls and election projections at RacetotheWH.com/president #Trump #Election #Biden
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"The violence is ratcheting up at the same time the rhetoric is becoming more extreme, and Trump might look more like the arsonist gleefully pouring gasoline on the political pyre then the fireman quenching the flames."
racetothewh.com/blog/rncriot…
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Stacey Abrams has thrown her hat in the ring, and the Georgia Governor Race is now a tossup in the RacetotheWH Forecast, which correctly called Democrats three victories last cycle.
racetothewh.com/georgiagov
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Some of those are being tracked already in our old version, which includes far more candidates. We don't have EVERY poll for those matchups, but we have most of them. racetothewh.com/president/po…
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You guys chose NH. I think that's probably right if Sununu runs. It's a great example of how much the candidates matte. Here is Dem. Senator Hassan's chance of victory against three different opponents:
Gov. Sununu: 48%
Former Sen. Ayotte: 59%
General Don Bolduc: 82%
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For another take, explore the RacetotheWH Polling Average. We called the highest percent of Senate and Gov races right in 2022. racetothewh.com/2024/rep
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Finally, we got a new poll in the New York City Mayor's race. Check out the newest standings racetothewh.com/nycmayor
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Lots of new polling in the Arizona Governor Race today. Explore it all in our AZ Gov. Interactive Election Forecast racetothewh.com/governor/ari…
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In Florida, Val Demings (D) chances of an upset have drifted up to 18% in our Senate Forecast. This is a better poll for her, but she's still down in a race where the fundamentals favor Rubio. We'll see if this is the beginning of a trend or an outlier
We've got some new polling today in Florida showing Demings a stones throw away from Rubio, and DeSantis recovering some ground against Crist. racetothewh.com/senate/22pol…
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Warnock is polling 8% ahead of Collins, & 9% ahead of Loeffler. Plus, Loeffler has a truly incredible -10% approval, and Warnock is quite popular. I just don't get why people think Republicans are favored, let alone dominant favorites.
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There's a plausible scenario where this cycle because a bloodbath for Senate Republicans if Democrats overperform their current projections by just a few points. If that happens, they could easily win 55 or more seats
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We're switching to the Special Election for the Alaska Race. Check out our latest projection racetothewh.com/house/state
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Here's our first edition of the Alaska Senate Forecast. Read the whole thread to learn the challenges we're taking on in projecting the results in Alaska, as state that has just adopted ranked choice voting.
Now that Murkowski is running for re-election, I'm designing an Alaska Forecast for ranked-choice voting. It's based on my NYC Mayor model, my most successful forecast yet.
Chance to Win:
Lisa Murkowski: 80%
Kelly Tshibaka: 16%
Democrat (Gray Jackson): 3%
Joe Miller: 1%
(1/8)
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WOW! Georgia Senate Race now TILTS Democrat! Warnock is the heavy (80%!) favorite if its Warnock v. Loeffler, whose the most unpopular incumbent in the nation. If its Collins, Warnock has an the edge (63%) after today's polling
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RMG Research has conducted polls all across the country that came out today. We're getting our first look at a ton of the most important House Races. Follow the new polling, adjusted for historic partisan bias, right here: racetothewh.com/house/polls
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Could Texas go Blue? Democrats have long dreamed of winning the Lone Star State, and a Fox News Poll showed Biden up 1. In the Race to the White House Presidential Forecast, racetothewh.com/president we still have Trump winning Texas, but Biden has a 1/3 shot at an upset
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That's a trend we have been seeing nationally. Democrats are outperforming Republican's in the national generic ballot by about 2% on average, even as Biden's approval rating is 3% underwater.
McAuliffe's margin in the Fox News poll and in the polling in general in Virginia is about 4-5 points higher than Biden's net approval rating in VA. Give McAuliffe a bit of a cushion.
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I was really curious, so I checked this out for myself too. Last year, I ran extensive test with my Senate forecast on the 06 cycle and others - and this was my map on the earliest date I have, January 1st, 2016.
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Gov. Tim Walz (D) is looking a lot stronger in Minnesota after SurveyUSA showed him up by double digits against every Republican.
Race Rating Change: Tilt D -> Lean D
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We harnesses predictions from the top sports betting sites - and statistics from the NFL and ESPN - to predict the outcome of every game this season. racetothewh.com/nfl?foo=bar
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Big news - the Interactive MLB Forecast is going live on Monday! It simulates the season over 1,000 times every update, and predicts how likely each team is to make the playoffs.
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True! This is a result of limited polling - I'm putting every public Biden approval rating from each state I can find in the weighed average. Some states just don't have very much - including Michigan. He's probably a bit higher then net -4% in Michigan, and lower in Utah
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Thanks.
BTW - I don't choose the ratings manually. It's based on the projection from my forecast, which is driven by data.
Safe D/R = 95%+ chance to win
Likely D/R = 85-95% chance
Lean D/R = 75-85% chance
Tilt D/R = 65-75%+ chance
Tossup = 45-65% chance
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In Wisconsin, Donald Trump now trails Joe Biden by over 9% on average - a bigger advantage then Hillary Clinton ever had in 2016: racetothewh.com/state-polls #Wisconsin #Biden #Trump
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I wrote a story breaking down what Democrats need to do to win the Senate. Here's the gist: First, lock down the states where Dems have a clear advantage. That's Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota.
racetothewh.com/blog/demswin…
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#Trump is down big in #Georgia and slightly behind in the recent #foxpoll - as Biden now become the narrow favorite to win the state for the first time in 2020 See the entire electoral map right here at: racetothewh.com/president
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Oh that's a good take. But she has definitely given Warnock some ammo. The Marjorie Greene endorsement opened up a hell of a vulnerability
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Ironically I just did a graphic on this. In 2016 it was PA 10.3% WI 12.7%, MI 13.4% racetothewh.com/blog/midwest…
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You are right. I was spit balling based on partisan lean, and made a mistake. Wyden won by so much that my model he'd win by 22% in a neutral cycle. Even in a historic victory, GOP likely doesn't have a shot.
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I'm not so sure on Washington. I think it could be a touch closer than that based on the recent polling.
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Joe Biden's net approval rating has fallen, but he still remains about 10% above Donald Trump at this point in his presidency.
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After an enormous amount of work, I've rebuilt the Senate Polling Average - and it should now be far more useful. Enjoy!
The Senate Polling Average includes every poll publicly released for the 2022 election, for every race. Now, it's been redesigned to be as clear and easy to read as possible.
Link -> racetothewh.com/senate/22pol…
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President Trump has suggested today that we delay our election. Let us be crystal clear, he does NOT have that authority, and for 232 years America has held elections without delay. Nothing would be a greater threat to our democracy then this.
racetothewh.com/blog/delayel…
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Raphael Warnock has held the she against Loeffler for most of the past few months. She briefly became the favorite, but now Warnock has pulled ahead again. We have him winning by 0.9 percent
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Trafalgar, a right leaning pollster, shows the Virginia Governor razor tight. McAuliffe up by only two. Dismiss it if you want, but they were closer then many big polling firms last cycle. Republicans chance of a statement upset at 25%. racetothewh.com/virginia
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It makes a ton of sense - Loeffler has a horrible approval rating, and it never fully recovered after the corona briefing. That's why we had Warnock as a 71 percent favorite in a head to head runoff. That's only going up now.
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Its election day in Georgia. For the first time in the runoff, our forecast has Jon Ossoff as the favorite in Georgia, up by 0.1 percent! racetothewh.com/senate/runof…
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What's State in the Presidential and Race in the Senate do you most disagree with the Forecast Average?
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If you gave me the Senate too I might choose North Carolina. If you gave me both Senate races too I might even choose Georgia!
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RacetotheWH has tracked all the polling for the California Recall, and is projecting the final result. One of the most accurate forecasters in 2020.
racetothewh.com/cagov21
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Debate Night! And here's the state of the race today! Joe Biden has got a big lead. Pennsylvania just shifted to Likely Democrat, and Texas moved from Tossup to Tilt Republican
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We're in the final stretch for the NYC Mayor Race - and the forecast and polling will be updated all day as new data comes in. Click the attached link for the latest polls. For the forecast, go to -> racetothewh.com/nycforecast. racetothewh.com/nycmayor
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Second, flip Maine and North Carolina. Democrats have a 70% chance of taking both - not safe, but a clear edge.
Now, when they can win five or all of these six states, Democrats win the Senate 87% of the time. Lose two, and their chance plummets to 31% (2/3)
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Top Five Most Competitive Senate Races in 2022:
1. Nevada
2. Pennsylvania
3. Georgia
4. Arizona
5. New Hampshire
Racetothewh.com/senate
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This one is going to make some folks nervous. Florida is getting more competitive, and we just downgraded it to Tilt Democrat for the first time since mid June. racetothewh.com/president/ba…
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In Arizona, Kelly has taken a clear lead in the Senate Race. A former Astronaut, he never planned on getting into politics, but fate had other plans. racetothewh.com/blog/demlead…
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I'm guessing you think Sununu will run? Otherwise, I think Arizona and Nevada look a bit harder for Dems than N.H.
Wow - it looks like Donald Trump is already started to lose his bounce from the convention. Polls take from August 30th to September 1st aren't as strong from him. Biden's lead has gone up from 7.5% back to 8%.
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The Six Races Need to Win to Take the Senate instagram.com/p/CFC5Bv5DumB/…
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Could Andrew Cuomo actually mount a comeback? racetothewh.com/governor/new…
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Susan Collins is in the middle of the toughest race of her career, and a new poll has Democrat Sarah Gideon back on top. Gideon is once again the favorite in a race that could easily go down to the wire. racetothewh.com/senate/state
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I think you might be underestimating how much the culture wars has hurt the GOP brand in New England, especially (my home state) Connecticut. Unless the GOP shifts it's politics, I don't think voters there are open to them
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