Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. cnn.it/3A8VJAn
I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
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Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?
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Trump didn't break Kimmel; he energized him. Viewership of Kimmel's monologue has already broken records.
Already 7 million people have viewed it on YouTube. That's by far the most watched Kimmel video on YouTube in the last 6 months.
The median Kimmel video gets ~240k views.
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JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party's convention. He's the first to have a net negative favorable rating.
Not surprising given how weak he ran in Ohio in 2022. Far worse than the average Ohio Republican.
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Just 6% of Greenlanders want to join the United States. There are more people who think we faked the moon landing (~10%).
85% of Greenlanders are opposed.
Meanwhile, less than 30% of Americans want Greenland to join the U.S.
I've rarely seen anything so unpopular.
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Kamala Harris' popularity (net favorability) has climbed 15 pts to positive territory in 2 months of campaigning... She's more popular than Biden or Trump. Harris is also slightly outperforming Democrats on the generic ballot.
Statistically, she's been a pretty good candidate.
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I've really cut back on tweeting political stuff, but I'll just say this. No incumbent president with an approval rating north of 75% in Gallup polling within his own party has ever come close to losing renomination. Biden is at 82%.
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Kamala Harris seems to be on track to put up the best numbers ever for a Democratic presidential nominee among white voters with a college degree & among all voters with a college degree.
Those with a college degree are likely to make up a record high share of the electorate.
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Biden has been running for president for 501 days by count... He's been ahead of Trump for each of those 501 days. No challenger has ever led for that long.
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My personal thoughts on the Covid-19 vaccines are simple: I got my first shot on the first day I was eligible. I got my booster on the first day I was eligible. I think the vaccines are arguably the greatest scientific achievement of the 21st century.
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Trump has no viable path to victory. Every single other candidate in modern history in his position has long since conceded the race by this point.
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Look is Joe Biden leading? Yes. Is it close at this time? No. Are there any bright spots for Trump in the polling? No.
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Biden won 306 electoral votes. He won by ~7 million votes nationally. The allegations the President makes about irregularities/fraud are unsubstantiated and a lie. It's absolutely nuts that 1 month after the election Trump has still not conceded.
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Honest question... Why does Beto get so much umph when Stacey Abrams got a higher share of the vote and seemed to run a much more unapologetically liberal campaign?
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Trump's mandate? It's very shallow. Trump's now under 50% in the popular vote. His margin ranks 44 of 51 since 1824.
Weak coattails: 4 Dems won for Senate in states Trump won. (It was 0 in 2016 & 2020.)
The GOP is on track for smallest House majority since there were 50 states.
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"Uh oh... Trump's making history": he's the 1st president since the S&P 500 was created in 1957 to inherit a bull market & turn in a loss of at least 5% at this point in his presidency.
This isn't like other early declines. Trump took a bull & is turning it into a bear.
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I'm gonna guess the President will not be tweeting out the latest Rasmussen poll. Just a guess.
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Voter fraud isn't the same thing as election fraud. What seems to have occurred in NC-9 was election fraud. The difference is key. In one, it is voters perpetrating the fraud. In the other, the fraud is being perpetrated upon the voters.
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Kamala Harris is doing SIGNIFICANTLY better than Joe Biden is among Black and Hispanic voters.
Why is that important? It means that while Biden had really one path to win the electoral college, Harris has multiple. Specifically, she can win in the Sun Belt (AZ, GA, NC, & NV).
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"To cross that rubicon [of defying court rulings] is a big 'no, no'" for Americans. This court issue is a big loser for Trump.
The belief that Trump must follow court orders is more popular than Mother Teresa: 84% of all adults, 92% of Dems, 82% of Indies & 79% of the GOP.
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Joe Biden is a lot closer to winning Texas at this point than Donald Trump is to winning Minnesota, if the polls are anywhere close to right.
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More convinced than ever that older Black Democratic primary voters in South Carolina won this presidential race for the Democrats.
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Trump's overall net approval & on the economy are "historically awful... weak, weak, weak" going into a 1st address to Congress.
He has the 2nd worst net approval rating (+1 pts) on record. Beating only himself (2017). His net approval on the economy (-4 pts) is the worst.
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I tend to think the so-called Democratic panic is quite overblown at this point. Harris still has a very clear path to 270 votes... The polls show Harris basically even (if not slightly ahead) in the Great Lake battlegrounds.
She also still has a potential backup Sun Belt path.
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The past 24 hours have featured some of the best polling for Harris of the campaign... Harris has as clear of a path to 270 than she basically ever has...
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Well it's official: the final polls of 2024 project out an electoral map that is the closest since at least 1972 with the leader (Harris) getting 270 electoral votes.
The polls were tight at the end of 2000 too, but final map projected by the final polls was Gore at 281 votes.
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What a big shift toward Ukraine among the GOP from 6 months ago.
% who think we give Ukraine too much support has dropped dramatically from 47% to 30%.
% who say we should give more arms to Ukraine has jumped from 30% to 51%.
Oh & Putin: GOP hates him with 84% unfavorable.
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The shutdown debate shows how the Affordable Care Act has won.
1. The ACA is one of the great comeback stories in modern politics. It has a +30 pt net favorable & gained 40 points in net favorability since 2014.
2. More Republicans than Democrats now use the ACA marketplace!
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A larger percentage of Americans rank Trump's presidency in the lowest category possible (e.g. one of worst ever) than any president tested at the end of his presidency. (We have data since Ford.) This matches historian rankings, which rank Trump last. cnn.com/2020/12/20/politics/…
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A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump's base of non-college White voters.
This is key because they make up a ton of the electorate, especially in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she's holding her own in MI, PA & WI.
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Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936. cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/…
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One reason Harris has a small national lead over Trump? She's doing better than Biden did 4 years ago with voters age 65+ in the average poll...
Harris could be the first Dem to win seniors since Gore in 2000. A huge development because seniors vote in huge numbers.
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Re: Mamdani & Israel, Democrats are longer pro-Israeli when it comes to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.
Dems sympathized more with Israelis by 13 pt in 2017. Now, it's Palestinians by 43 pt.
Among Dems under 50, it was Israelis by 14 pt in 2017. Now, Palestinians by 57 pt.
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If Trump's not careful, inflation will crush his presidency. Inflation will eat his presidency alive just like it ate Biden's.
Inflation is the number 1 thing Americans say Trump should be focused on, but most Americans (66%) say Trump isn't focused enough on inflation.
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To butcher a quote from Newt Gingrich after 1994, if this isn't a wave, I'd like to know what a wave is. This is this biggest net gain in the House for the Dems in the House since Watergate.
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Biden right now is ahead or down by a point in states containing over 400 electoral votes. He's also up 10 pts in national polls. If that was the result (& the piece points out why it may not be), it would be the largest win for a Dem since LBJ in 64. cnn.com/2020/06/19/politics/…
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The fact that there are supposedly serious people who still can't admit that Biden won legitimately and that the election wasn't stolen is sad.
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Folks, Joe Biden has never trailed in this race. Based upon these insta-polls, he will continue to lead this race. Every day Trump doesn't gain is a bad day for him. There is zippo sign he's gaining after this debate.
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CNN's last poll found that among suburban women Joe Biden had 63% to Donald Trump's 34%.
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See to me this is a wave election. In the House, where the entire country got to vote, Dems are winning with ease. Further, there have been some surprises, which is indicative of a wave in my mind.
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Trump is "completely underwater" & has broken his own record with the lowest net approval at this point among independents (-22 pts).
His economic net approval with indies at this pt is so low (-29 pts) it has "no historical analogy".
Most indies (66%) oppose the new tariffs
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If Trump wins, the signs were there all along.
No incumbent party has won another term with so few voters saying the country is on the right track (28%) or when the president's net approval rating is so low (Biden's at -15 pts).
Also, big GOP registration gains in key states.
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There have been at least 4 scientific post-debate polls I have seen. Every single one found that voters (or voters who watched the debate) thought Biden won the debate.
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Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation. He's on track for the best performance among union voters in 40 years. He's up 31 points among trade school grads.
He's doing 17 pts better among nonwhite non-college voters than in 2020.
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Lot of polling out of immunity, but perhaps the most interesting finding... Republicans think Trump should be immune for his official acts.
But with a generic president (i.e. no named attached), Republicans don't think the president should be immune from prosecution.
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I can report (unless my sources have failed me) that tomorrow will showcase the first public poll to show Doug Jones with a lead in the AL-Senate race. This race is very real.
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Part II: If Harris wins, the signs were clear as day.
1. She has a higher net favorable rating than Trump, & the more popular candidate almost always wins.
2/3. Post-Roe: When voters vote, Democrats win. See special elections & 2022 midterms, when Dems did historically well.
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Biden's clearly outpacing Clinton's pace. 4 years ago this week, Clinton & Trump were tied. Clinton was at 39% in polls including Gary Johnson. Today, Biden's up 7. He's at 48%, which Clinton never hit in final 6 months. Much less room for Trump to move up cnn.com/2020/05/24/politics/…
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No group has become more hawkish on immigration & shifted to the GOP than immigrants.
Immigrant voters
-Trust more on immigration in 2020: Dem +32 pt to Now: GOP +8 pt
-Net fav of immigrants here illegally: +23 pt in '20, -6 pt in '24
-Trump's vote: 36% in '16 to 47% in '24!
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Newsom's social media strategy/opposition to Trump is working.
He's gained millions of social media followers. Google searches for him are up like a rocket.
He's now the frontrunner for the 2028 Dem nomination per the prediction markets.
It's cause Democrats want a fighter.
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Trump effect in Canada: They use to love us, but those who want to treat the U.S. as a friend has dropped 50 pts from 2023.
Trudeau's net approval is up 28 pts since the tariff wars began.
Trudeau's party went from DOA in the 2025 elections to having a legit shot of winning.
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Trump moving the national guard into cities is a political loser. ~60% of Americans oppose it.
Why? Voters don't buy Trump's argument over crime.
Instead, they say Trump's taken his eye off the ball with too much focus on putting troops in cities & not enough on lower prices.
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Pretty clear that Harris is ahead nationally right now... and I don't think it matters all that much... Her advantage in the battlegrounds is basically nil.
Average it all, Harris' chance of winning the popular vote is 70%. Her chance of winning the electoral college is 50%.
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3 caution points for Democrats...
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May
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"Ruh roh", to quote Scooby Doo, on how Americans view the economy.
-Just 20% view it as excellent or good. Worse than at any pt during Trump's 1st term.
-"Yikes": 59% say the economy is getting worse... Worse than at any pre-covid pt during Trump's 1st term.
Danger territory.
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A little bit of a reality check for some:
-Trump's net approval on Russia/Ukraine (+2) is far more positive than Biden's was by the end (-22).
-The share (31% to 50%) who want a compromise in the war is way up
-The share who say Russia is an enemy is way down (64% to 34%).
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Don't count on polls underestimating Trump:
1. No party has ever been underestimated 3 pres. cycles in a row.
2. In 2020, right leaning polls correctly said averages were way off. In 2024, averages look a lot more like the right leaning polls.
3. 2022: Dems were underestimated.
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Black women from the south were a MAJOR reason Sanders lost the nomination in 2016. So he decides to give a separate SOTU response, when the Dem response is being given by a black woman from the south.
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The last day has been the worst polling day for Trump during his entire 2nd term.
-4 polls show his net approval rating underwater like The Little Mermaid.
-The 3 polls with a trend line show his ratings going down.
-His one time strength (the economy) is now a weakness.
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It really is noteworthy (I think) that Clinton's edge was collapsing at this point in 2016... There's basically no sign of that for Biden right now. His lead is holding in all the data I'm seeing. cnn.com/2020/10/25/politics/…
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Greenfield 45% to Ernst 42% in the Selzer poll desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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There's a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2016 or 2020.
He'd be the 1st Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years & only 2nd in 36 years.
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Don't be fooled: there's a lot of interest in the Signal scandal. Googling for "The Atlantic" & "Signal" are way up to record highs.
Going in, more were disappointed with Trump's admin picks than any president ever.
Hegseth is the least popular Sec of Defense since Rumsfeld!
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A cab driver today knew who I was from tv. (This doesn't happen usually.) He said something that broke my heart. "I know you're Jewish..." Note: I say shalom on-air. He then said "I'm Muslim. I want you to know I don't hate you. I'm your brother." I told him "you're my brother."
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A $15 minimum wage passed in Florida with 61% of the vote in 2020. Biden got just 48% of the vote in the same Florida election.
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I've rarely seen folks as interested in a story as they are in Mark Robinson's scandal. Google searches for him are through the roof nationally & in North Carolina.
Although Robinson was likely losing anyway, the prez race in NC is tied & NC is basically a must win for Trump.
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GOP voters love for Trump is record breaking. His strong approval (63%) is up like a rocket from term 1 (53%).
It's higher than any GOP prez on record at this pt.
95%+ of those Trump endorses win primaries. When you mess with Trump, you go in the grinder to quote Good Burger.
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And with that HarrisX poll, the last domino has fallen. Every single national poll now has Sanders ahead.
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Reality Check: Trump hates South Park, but Google searches for it are up 670%! It was the most searched topic with Trump this afternoon.
And unlike what Trump said, South Park's still popular. It's a top 20 streaming show!
Also, many GOPers like the show (unlike Colbert).
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Biden's favorable/unfavorable ratings in NYT polls... Michigan: 54/42... Wisconsin: 55/42.... This isn't a lesser of two evils vote. Voters actually like Biden. HUGE difference with 2016. int.nyt.com/data/documenttoo…
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Here's the fact: Trump's re-elect is in tremendous trouble. No serious analyst I know of believes he's anything but an underdog. His chance of winning is something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 based on history... It's quite possible he pulls it off, but it's bad.
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If JD Vance's popularity in his home region (-16 pts) is any sign, it won't get better for Vance nationally (where he's historically unpopular).
Also, Vance's favorable rating is just 5% with undecideds (i.e. not for Harris/Trump) in the prez race. His unfavorable rating is 29%.
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High quality state polling (15k interviews & 20+ polls) since April 1 suggests Biden leads by 7-8 pts nationally, is ahead in states totaling a majority of electoral votes, & said lead is wide enough to withstand a 2016 like error were election held today. cnn.com/2020/05/17/politics/…
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Trump's mandate:
1. More states (49 + DC) swung in his direction vs. last election than anyone since 1992.
2. Best GOP showing w/ age 18-29 in 20 yrs, Black voters in 48 yrs, Hispanics in 52+ yrs.
3. Coattails: best GOP showing in House popular vote in prez year since 1928.
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Joe Biden is the first challenger since at least 1940 to head into the conventions with over 50% support against an incumbent president. That is, Biden heads into the conventions in a historically strong position.
cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/…
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Dems are the precipice of delivering a yuge electoral blow to Trump. They lead in NJ-GOV (only close one), VA-GOV, & NYC Mayor.
Trump's way underwater in all 3 places (like he is nationally) & is drag.
Historically, a sweep of NYC-NJ-VA means Dems win the House the next year.
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Remember when Mike Bloomberg parachuted into the Dem primary? Spent like a billion dollars? Came in fourth? And that he ran cause Biden was weak?... And then Biden won anyway?... and is up like 10 now against a flailing incumbent?
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Time for a reality check... I think some folks thought Trump's approval rating would keep falling, but it's rising.
Ipsos has his net approval going from -8 pts to -1 pt with voters. Aggregate has him up higher than late April too & much higher than at this point in term 1.
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This is the biggest change between Biden & Harris as the Democratic nominee. We've seen a 26 pt jump in enthusiasm among Democrats in voting for the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Trump's once large edge with his base on enthusiasm is gone. Harris now leads on enthusiasm.
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The Trump admin's handling of the Epstein files has been a massive unforced error.
Trump may wish it goes away, but Google searches for Epstein are up 1,200% this week. It's the top topic searched with Trump today.
More have Googled Epstein this week than Grok or tariffs.
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A big reason Harris has surged? She's winning over previously disaffected voters.
We have been talking about double-haters... Those who dislike Biden/Trump. Harris is winning them by over 40 pts now.
Same idea: Harris is taking 39% of RFK Jr.'s previous vote as he plummets...
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Tough for Trump to make deals with G7 countries when 61% to 81% in all have no confidence in Trump.
Median G7 country with no confidence in the U.S. president has jumped 22 pts from Biden to Trump.
A ridiculous 91% of Canadians want less reliance on U.S. as a trade partner.
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A look at the cumulative statewide House vote in states like GA, PA and WI suggests that the prez race in these states could have played out very differently. And are consistent with the idea that Dem primary voters made a VERY wise choice in Biden.
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A new low for Trump, as the USS Donald Trump takes on a lot of water. His net approval has dropped 17 pt since January to -11 pt now.
Underwater on all major issues from immigration (-5 pt) to Epstein (-37 pt).
Only presidency with worse ratings at this point? Trump term 1.
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I mean what's there really more to say about this race at this point? You got a president who has a net approval rating of -15 pts. A president who is down 10 to his opponent. A pandemic that seems to be getting worse. Seems pretty clear what's happening...
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No matter how you splice the data, Trump seems to be the strongest Republican with Black voters since 1960. Young Black men in particular have trended right during Trump's runs (cutting the Dem margin by 40 pts from 2012).
But Trump's doing historically well with Black women too
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Biden +3 in Wisconsin... Trump is in deep trouble if this is right. law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-co…
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Biden is saying that 2020 polls underestimated him, so why believe them now? When it comes to the general election, that's not true. Polls overestimated him.
Biden's in his worst poll position ever against Trump. He's the 1st Democrat to trail in national July polls since 2000.
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A common media crutch is to say Democrats live in a bubble. (Maybe so.) But the last month of many Republicans not acknowledging Biden's win shows many GOPers not only live in a bubble, but prefer it to living in reality. cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/…
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Brat Summer or not, I looked into whether Harris has unique appeal to young voters. She doesn't. She's doing much worse against Trump than Biden did in 2020.
Moreover, young Democrats are NOT disproportionately more motivated to vote than other Democrats because of Biden's exit
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It's clear from the numbers that the attack on Vance/Trump as "weird" has penetrated the zeitgeist. Searches for weird are way up on Google, and the topics that are driving that are all political.
Might be part of why some polls show Vance's bad net favorables falling further.
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Oy vey! Breaking records you don't wanna break: November has the worst ever consumer sentiment of current conditions since 1951.
~80% of pure independents disapprove of Trump on the economy.
This holds & the GOP is likely waving adios to their House & maybe Senate majorities.
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