Analyzing the Bera Chain Airdrop
I haven't been following
@berachain for a while, but I thought I'd do a quick analysis of the
$BERA airdrop event for depositors.
Berachain is an EVM Identical Layer1 project that has received $142M in funding.
It is characterized by adopting a consensus mechanism called POL (Proof Of Liquidity)
For reference, BTC is a hardware-based mining mechanism called POW (Proof Of Work), and ETH is a POS (Proof of Stake).
ETH is a mechanism (Proof of Stake) that organizes nodes through staking called POS (Proof Of Staking).
POL is a way to qualify as a node by providing liquidity, but I still need to study the exact logic.
Anyway, Bera has received a very large investment, and until now, it was only possible to participate through Discord rolls, NFTs, testnets, etc
This time, along with
@Stake_Stone ,
@Lombard_Finance , and
@ethena , we'll be able to participate in POL by depositing assets
If we look at some of the similar categories of airdrops in 2024, most of the L1 or L2 airdrops were around $1B in size.
The Berachain had a valuation of $42M at the time of the $420M investment,
The valuation of the additional $100M is unknown, but we can assume it is at least $1.4B
In the case of
@Starknet , the actual initial FDV was around $18B due to the sharp drop in price, but it was still high
@movementlabsxyz also had a very high FDV due to its strong listing performance.
@HyperliquidX is a complete outlier, and
@MerlinLayer2 hasn't disclosed its funding, so it's hard to compare.
In terms of funding amount comparison, I'm cautiously predicting that it will be in the $10B range, about half of Starknet, and in the $20B range, about 3x the Movement. (Hopefully)
Let's assume that the airdrop is likely to be around 7%.
That would put us between $700M and $1.4B of airdrop amount (We don't know yet, but let's stick with our estimate)
However, as I already mentioned above, with the community activities, testnet activities, NFTs, etc.
the airdrop for the depositors would be 300M to $600M
What we need to see is,
1. the current TVL is small, around $130M for Lombard / $246M for Stakeston / $6.7M for Ethena = Total $382.7M
2. POL is the core of the Berachain, so its launch is probably not far off.
Therefore, even if the airdrop for deposits is small, it will be quite high when converted to APR.
Roughly speaking, even if it takes 3 months and $1B is deposited, with $300M airdrop, that's 120% APR, and the higher the value of the airdrop or the shorter the term, the higher the APR.
To do this, I'm going to highlight the three deposits, Stakeston, Lombard, and Ethena, in separate posts.