Today was a great day

Is Satoshi alive 👀

I’m fading them. If I’m really betting against Satoshi, he can take this $30k donation for his great work on Bitcoin 😅

If you’re just joining Polymarket, I recommend staying out of every views market that isn’t MrBeast. Here’s why: Recently, almost every daily/weekly market has seen weird activity; higher brackets spiking from <1c to 100c near the end. Take the latest @Sidemen video, for example:

*TRUMP MEDIA TO ENTER PREDICTION MARKETS BUSINESS - BBG Prediction Markets Supercycle 🔥

You should know better as a Polymarket researcher 😅 Cigarettes is just a bot, he only does arb/negrisk. He is not really betting on anything, you cant copytrade him

The US confirming aliens exist is now more likely than Bitcoin hitting 200k this year. Its truly over 👽📉

Another day, another 100x on Polymarket 🚀 ($193 -> $17,000 in one day 🔥) MrBeast dropped a new video and it looked like it was cruising to 40M+ in 24 hours. After some time pace fell off a cliff and the video finished with 34.7M views☑️

Two fresh wallets have been loading up shares below 10c for the past 12 hours. They have already spent $41k and now hold 350k shares combined (12c average). 1)polymarket.com/@1897sadhjns4… 2)polymarket.com/@arfdgsdfq

Polymarket did it again: breaking news before the news 🔥 If you’ve been paying attention to Polymarket, you knew an OpenAI browser launch was imminent. If you rely on mainstream media, the latest info you had was from 3 months ago, when Reuters reported on it back in July.

Today’s episode of “insider or degen” features the Nobel Peace Prize. A fresh account just aped into Maria shares, pushing the price from 2c to 50c and stacking ~100k shares in just a few minutes. We will find out tomorrow if he is a member of the committee or just a random degen betting on his beliefs.

If Xi goes down, we are going down with him 🫡

05/10 – 12/10 WEEKLY RECAP 🔥 Great week on Polymarket with plenty of action. It started with my biggest loss ever in the ceasefire markets, but I managed to grind it back and closed the week +12k 🏆 Biggest Wins 1) Monad Airdrop – When Monad tweeted the “Claim” date I set up some walls and picked up ~45k NO at 30c. I've already sold everything on the way up and the market is now at 85c. Pretty clear some insiders have been trading it. 2) Nobel Prize – Held ~70k NO on Trump. Hard to believe he was even in contention given Greenland, drug boat strikes, trade war, etc. Price pumped to 5c after the Gaza ceasefire, but it was already too late. Maybe next year! 🎯I also tailed the "insider" on María but wasn't confident enough to size up. 3) Israel Ceasefire Announcement – Saw Bibi’s post and recognized it could qualify as an “announcement” (same precedent from earlier this year). Scooped up some shares and Polymarket later clarified his post was indeed sufficient. 💀 Biggest Losses 1) Ceasefire by Oct 31 - Honestly shouldn’t have sized up that much. Thought media optimism was exaggerated and both sides would hold firm after failed talks earlier this year. Didn’t factor in how far Trump’s and Qatar’s pressure would push things this round, and it ended up being my second-biggest single hit 📉 2) Ceasefire by Oct 10 – Was trading in and out but got too locked into my NO thesis. When news broke I overexposed myself and wasn’t quick enough to unload everything. ⭐ Honorable Mention 1) 8M+ Hyperliquid Fees – This market isn’t finished yet and I currently hold 10k YES. It’s pretty clear HL made well over 8M in fees during the flash crash, but DefiLlama’s code seems to be bugged and is showing wrong data. Their team is aware and should fix it tomorrow.

I'm sorry, but you are just wrong Easy. The market is trading at 99c for a reason, this is an announcement market. The rules are ambiguous at best, saying that "between the dates" exclusively refers to the purchase is just completely wrong. UMA has nothing to do with this, btw. Poly will just decide the outcome themselves. You joined Poly a week ago, you shouldn’t be spreading disinformation about a market that has been resolving based on announcements since January.

I suspect a bad actor found a reliable way to buy hundreds of thousands of views and is manipulating these small markets. This video was averaging 5–10k views/hour, then suddenly spiked to 300–800k for a few hours before going back to normal.

Exactly. If you are an insider you can make a lot more money just shorting BTC

Surely this is the best market to fade them

@coffeebreak_YT Do it

Once again, @Polymarket called it first!

You can check the market and my wallet yourself. That’s the beauty of Polymarket, everything is verifiable on-chain

Tomorrow at 7 PM ET marks the end of Miles’ 40-day fast. I’m completely out of the market, but I’m still curious to see how these last few days unfold. NO at 73c looks undervalued, but after everything that’s happened I’m not touching it. Feels like we’re due for one last pump. Hope to see you again tomorrow, @lordmiles

Liked how the intern took the time to list traders from best to worst 😅

Something finally happened… at least it was a good thing for the world. Hopefully this ceasefire holds and Trump actually puts an end to the war. Had a lot of fun trading this market on @Polymarket, will try to be on the right side next time😂

There wasn’t much liquidity when I posted, but the book is pretty thick now. 230k shares sitting below 12c

Trader xPlayer aped in at 0.7c (27k shares / $193). Cashed out at ~63c. $17,000 profit in 24h. Absolute insanity 🤯💸

Name another place where you can bet $900k on an election in under an hour

Insider 👀

A fresh wallet bought thousands of shares below 1c yesterday and has already cashed most of them out, making around $3k in profit on this market. polymarket.com/@0xB737a3d6F8…

Kalshi should be lower

They kept filling at 93c after the launch was pretty much confirmed lol. You traded it really well btw, great job

You need more shares here. Trump is about to announce world peace and you only bought 500k shares? Rookie numbers

Nothing Ever Happens

when badge

Shoutout to @betmoardotfun for their amazing PNL card🐒

There are too many larpers out there

are you telling me we are still early 👀

I’m sorry, man. They really robbed you on that one. I spent some time this morning going through the Finance Minister’s speech to make sure they actually bought BTC and it wasn’t just a plan. I didnt even think being a spot ETF would be a problem (neither did the market... it was trading at 90c+ for quite some time) It’s even worse than the other disputes you mentioned because we had the exact same problem months ago (when Abu Dhabi bought a spot BTC ETF), and Poly came up with another reason not to count it, completely ignoring the spot ETF vs spot dispute. I hate how they always wait until the shit hits the fan to act. It feels like they don’t care at all about their core users.

The Lord Miles saga is finally over. Can't wait for his next 40 day fast 😂

@grok who is the current pope?

Please tell me you lost your private keys 🤣

HUGE

Hope this helps!

Yeah the rules are terrible. Someone suggested new rules on discord a few monhts ago and they changed them to: This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between XXX, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and XXX, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. I have no idea why they switched back to the old, ambiguous rules

You are too good at this Easy. Great bets, Im on both too

Lol, it shot up because there was a bug on lmarena that mistakenly hid Gemini for a couple of hours, and Alibaba took the #1 spot (archive.is/AAyme/image). I think it’s already been confirmed it was just a bug and odds should drop back to 10% soon.

Sorry @verrissimus I had to do it

Yeah botting MrBeast is much harder, the brackets are too wide (usually 5 or 10M views apart).

👀

I was ready to full port @shayne_coplan where is him???

Great job, you are killing it

I also have a 1.2m loss and several 60k losses in the same market. None of it is real though, it’s a bug related to splitting/converting shares

It’s already at $1M. The top 3 holders now have 750k shares and are buying up to 8–9c You can check here: polymarket.com/event/will-sa…

They are everywhere

Huge!

$130k????

rare Thonker W

I appreciate your donation sir

Car is the goat, great interview!

RIP Lord Miles I’ll admit, I had never even heard his name before @Polymarket made a market on his fast. At first, I wasn’t a fan of his character, but after watching him for hundreds of hours, he kind of grew on me. For the past month, my mornings were basically: wake up, brush my teeth, check on Lord Miles. His streams somehow became part of my daily routine. These last 36 hours have been brutal; glued to my screen, still half-expecting him to tweet or fire up another stream. Sad to see him go, but I'm sure he is a better place now. Forever missed @lordmiles

Now thats a stacked list. Glad to be part of it 🫡

Euan is washed

infinity polymarket money glitch 🔥

Bruh, aliens dont exist

Polymarket account: polymarket.com/@6741

Goated intern fr

Thats how we will make it all back

I have trackers for some markets but in this case a friend DMed me about it

GOAT

Please don’t tell anyone he was selling his YES at a profit while I was merging my NOs at a loss 😅

Domer has to be cheating wtf

👀

Thanks! The Middle East is really a crazy place

Thats a great one 🤣

They arent bots, they are just tracking your wallet. You just pushed the order book on an already terrible bet, so everyone rushed to bet against you

I mean I tweeted 15 minutes after they posted, I’m obviously talking about last week's video. As for the timestamps, sure, I should’ve plotted in UTC 😅

1M next 🚀

Octover

Yep, gotta be careful out there

"Truth will trade like oil" is such a banger line 🤣

That crash was insane, never seen anything like it

LFG WAGMI