Hunting @Polymarket edges like a maniac Low-liq = my drug AI models are distraction, chips are the war Real PnL drops only

Prediction Markets
This trader never loses on Polymarket? I’ve never seen this much green in my life. And what's crazy is he doesn’t even have a specific niche - he bets on literally everything, from sports to geopolitics. His profile: polymarket.com/@Gambler1968?…
55
83
1,284
138,209
$ES checker Tomorrow ? @EclipseFND
50
5
261
13,573
I’ve been watching him for a week already, and I still can’t bring myself to start copy trading him. While I’m watching, he keeps making profits! I feel like the moment I start copy trading him, his trades will immediately start losing.
31
10
223
69,744
How Wintermute manipulates markets on Polymarket Today I got curious about which traders are active in the “What will happen before GTA VI?” market, so I started digging into each top holder - and the very first one I came across was this profile: polymarket.com/@Huludubu?via… I checked his deposit address and found that it’s linked to several other Polymarket profiles. The most interesting part is that all of these wallets are connected to Wintermute and their market-making operations on Solana. If you look at their transactions on Arkham, you can actually see how they’re doing it. Why would they need multiple wallets and prediction markets? I see two possible reasons: 1. They might be profiting from arbitrage between different prediction markets. 2. They’re masking their trading activity to avoid drawing attention from other traders. I don’t have other explanations for why they’d need so many wallets - and honestly, I think this is just a small fraction of them. Maybe @wintermute_t themselves will respond to this post? Here are their profiles and wallets so you can check everything yourself: polymarket.com/@Huludubu?via… 32ZXRXaZPABPdVsVELu2yE4Bb16qQSYysurjFBzbyht1 2yTJB17EKC72njcQsx847sSkNi8CWk3X4Hh6Jw9Ch2iQ polymarket.com/@HardlandSus?… 94nYTY9mSjHE4j3bXRA4zhCe5k5ZEH4qSZCKULtTEYox 8Y692ZRcbjBM5jJijbQ7HgQGN8uUqQg8yYsJiX78aABN MfDuWeqSHEqTFVYZ7LoexgAK9dxk7cy4DFJWjWMGVWa (Wintermute Wallet) 7ah5cWsq771R8QEe5pxLgdeTBp38LgDK85Ct7KbSAiTh polymarket.com/profile/0x509… 6KxWshJRuHndJtiZNosQFrBn1F7tNdvp88UmGXizfGEp
28
9
190
47,616
If I understand correctly, his strategy is to place limit orders on clear outsiders, and then, after a slight price movement, he locks in a profit of around 50%. If that’s the case, it’s an interesting earning strategy -help me figure this out
23
4
173
14,566
Tools I Use for Research and Betting Analysis on @Polymarket 1.Polymarket Analytics @poly_data -Tracks top traders with detailed P&L by category -Market search with Polymarket and Kalshi comparison -Monitors large positions and whale activity -Builds custom portfolios to track multiple wallets -Data updates every 5 minutes 2.Polysights @Polysights -Insider Finder: detects suspicious activity from new wallets -30+ custom trader analytics metrics -AI summarization and news analysis -Notifications and leaderboards -Integration with Vertex AI, Gemini, and Perplexity 3.Hashdive @hashdive -Analysis of current position entry prices -Supply concentration assessment -Historical trader performance analysis -LLM-based predictions -Tracking top trading markets with AI probability estimates 4.TrendSpider Integration @TrendSpider -Live chart quotes -Tracking whale bets -Comparing odds with price action -Backtesting and alerts 5.Mobyscreener @mobyagent -Real-time tracking of top traders’ buys and sells -Live notifications of successful traders’ deals -Position size and direction insights -Markets targeted by professional bettors This is just a small part of what these tools can do - with deeper exploration, you’ll uncover tons of new data and opportunities. Save this post so you don’t lose it - and make your choices wisely!
24
17
168
11,141
This Polymarket trader knows movies. Looks like this trader has a solid understanding of cinema - all of his film-related trades are in profit. He’s also really good at placing limit orders. I think he’s someone worth keeping an eye on. His profile: polymarket.com/@buoys?via=ma…
17
13
140
10,661
I don’t know who this guy is, but the wallet he used to make a deposit on Polymarket holds $1 million in BTC. And you might say, “Marco, so what? Some random person put in $20k for fun?” But here’s the thing: the wallet is managed with a multisig setup. That means it’s controlled by multiple people, and moving the deposit requires 2 out of 3 signatures. So, this bet wasn’t made by just one person-it was made by several. But who are they? A cartel, the opposition, or other influential players in Venezuela? I don’t know that part, but I do know this wallet is definitely worth paying attention to. By the way, check out the wallet’s name: “bravo pueblo,” which means “glory to the brave people.” I think that might help you decide whether to go “Yes” or “No.”
17
5
136
19,334
This is one of the most undervalued markets on Polymarket. I think Trump is undervalued here, and here’s why: -Trump has 148M monthly searches (August–October 2025). That’s 3–4x higher than Pope Leo XIV in absolute volume -Trump, as a former president, generates news every single day -According to MeetGlimpse, Trump has been leading every month of 2025 -Google’s methodology measures spikes relative to the previous year - Trump could have a much bigger spike (percentage increase vs 2024) than Pope Leo XIV Trump is currently trading like an undervalued asset. Big traders are allocating 9x more capital per probability unit, which usually means: -Arbitrage play: buying Trump cheap at 15% expecting a move to 25–35% -Information advantage: these traders might have Google trend data or know about events coming in November–December -Hedge positioning: if someone has a massive position on Pope Leo XIV at 42%, they hedge by buying Trump Conclusion: Smart money clearly believes Trump’s current 15% pricing is undervalued. I took a position on Trump hoping for a spike, but I don’t recommend blindly copying this - always verify the data yourself. Good luck! This market: polymarket.com/event/1-searc…
45
7
125
25,782
Do you know what else I do in my Polymarket research? I check the top 10 holders for “Yes” and “No” and look for suspicious wallets that might know something. This way, I analyze not only the bet itself but also expand my list of insider and smart wallets. Use this approach!
23
4
119
8,644
Another strategy for making money on Polymarket This trader focuses on markets that are highly likely to happen - usually with a 90-95% probability. It might seem like a small 5-10% gain, but when you’re trading with large amounts, that turns into a solid monthly return. Here’s his profile for analysis: polymarket.com/@Halfapound?v…
28
2
121
14,127
How traders make money on splits on Polymarket On Polymarket, there’s a simple rule: "Yes" + "No" always equals 1 USDC. If "Yes" = 0.60, then "No" must equal 0.40 Why a pure split doesn’t generate profit If you simply perform a split (spend 1 USDC to get 1 “Yes” + 1 “No”) and then sell both tokens separately, you’ll get exactly 1 USDC back - no profit. The real profit comes from other sources So how do they actually make money? -Bid-ask spreads - profiting from the difference between buy and sell prices. If YES bid = 0.59 and ask = 0.61, a trader can capture that spread. -Temporary price imbalances - when prices move fast and short-lived arbitrage windows appear. -Market making - continuously placing orders to capture spreads. -Position management - using split/merge to exit positions with minimal slippage. This isn’t speculation on the outcome of an event. The trader profits from technical inefficiencies in the market - spreads, timing gaps, and execution speed. If I’m wrong somewhere, feel free to correct me in the comments. His profile: polymarket.com/@rockb?via=ma…
21
6
113
18,200
Another high-risk bet on @Polymarket Satoshi’s wallet has been activated after 14 years, which means: -He’s still alive -He still has access to it Why I’m betting “Yes”: -Four traders placed large bets on “Yes” and they have no other active positions besides this one - they might have insider information, or maybe it’s the same person. (Satoshi himself, lol) -Between 2024 and 2025, more than a dozen Satoshi-era activations have occurred. This shows that old addresses are waking up. -Arkham error: they might be misinterpreting “Outflow” or “Swaps” for example, mistakenly classifying an internal transaction as an outgoing transfer. -Also, Satoshi could have passed away, and his heirs might want to move the funds. Overall, the chances that some activity will start on these wallets are quite good. By the way, I don’t always post about all my bets, so I’ll leave my profile here for you to follow me: polymarket.com/@enigmabg
34
3
105
13,789
Why do you need DeFi and hundreds of protocols where you’ll earn 4–8% a year, when you can just place a bet on Xi on @Polymarket and make +17% - without having to wrap your money into the tokens of some shady protocol?
18
1
74
6,020
Are you interested in hearing the story of how one market maker is holding 9% of the shares on Andrew Cuomo to win? And most importantly - why and for what reason they’re doing it?
8
73
12,103
I think this is the most predictable bet, as many factors can be taken into account. Yet, for some reason, Polymarket users are avoiding it, with only 6K in volume. -Analyze how many posts Elon made in the previous month and year -Subtract the time he spends sleeping -Take into account his main activities And based solely on these factors, you can already estimate roughly how many posts he will make during these days.
16
2
68
7,778
You already know you can make money on prediction markets, but what if I told you that soon you'll be able to make money on attention?
T-24H. Attention is about to become the market. Narratives will have a price. Your takes will finally matter. Tomorrow we trade the hype itself, see you on the other side. Trendle beta.
51
65
4,684
What’s the difference between a successful and an unsuccessful trader on Polymarket? An unsuccessful Polymarket trader: -Doesn’t read the market rules -Treats Polymarket like a casino instead of a probability analysis tool -Ignores liquidity and enters markets with wide spreads -Blindly copies trades from large wallets A successful Polymarket trader: -Studies the contract terms, resolution source, and all risks before entering -Analyzes the market price and compares it with their own probability assessment -Allocates capital strategically -Watches the spread - if it’s wide, places limit orders An unsuccessful trader looks for events that are “certain to happen.” A successful trader looks for discrepancies between the market price and real probability. On Polymarket, you’re not competing with fate - you’re competing with collective belief. Here are a few successful Polymarket traders: 1. polymarket.com/profile/0x677… 2. polymarket.com/profile/0xdd2… 3. polymarket.com/profile/0xd5c…
22
7
65
4,577
Oh, this guy either knows something or he’s a madman! What’s strange is that even after “No” dropped by half, he kept buying more. @Polysights also tagged him as an insider. And his profile nickname says a lot - those who watch anime know what I mean.
22
2
65
8,257
I have information that Kupyansk was captured by Russian forces, but the ISW maps don’t want to update until they’re provided with video footage from the scene. On one hand, it’s good that ISW isn’t rushing to conclusions and waits for verified facts before updating the map. On the other hand, this slows down trading on @Polymarket - we earn based on news, but we can’t do that if the maps lag behind the updates by several days
16
65
10,886
A trader who stayed true to his convictions until the very end. This trader placed a bet on the U.S. presidential election a year ago. The day before the election, his position was down $3 million. After the election, he ended up making $16 million in profit. Since then, his Polymarket account has been inactive for over a year. I wonder if he’ll ever make a comeback? His profile: polymarket.com/@Fredi9999?vi…
18
3
65
16,976
This trader made more in a month than 99% of Solana meme degens. He joined Polymarket in October 2025 and already has a PnL of +$3 million - his recent bets are insane. I think it’s worth adding him to the alert list: polymarket.com/@Mayuravarma?…
26
1
65
5,941
I decided to check the holders of this bet, and look what I found: -He bet “No” that Putin and Trump wouldn’t meet in Hungary -He bet “No” that they wouldn’t meet before the end of November And he made money on all of that, and now he’s betting “Yes” that they will meet before the end of the year! I’ll be keeping an eye on him
You already know I love high-risk bets and that I’m a bit of a madman, right? So, I think there might be some profit to be made from the potential Trump–Putin meeting. Currently, there’s a 65% chance that Trump and Putin won’t meet before the end of 2025, and that percentage rose after Trump canceled his meeting with Putin in Budapest. But is everything really that straightforward? Should we take Trump’s words at face value? Okay, we know the White House’s position-Trump declined it-but what about the Kremlin’s position? Here’s what Putin said about the meeting: -Regarding the Budapest summit: it’s more about postponement than cancellation. -It would be a mistake to approach the Budapest summit without proper preparation. -Russia has always supported ongoing dialogue. -Dialogue is always better than confrontation, arguments, or continuing the war. So, Putin isn’t ruling out a meeting with Trump. That means by the end of the year, Trump could change his mind a dozen times about meeting with him. Here’s what we’ve got so far: -Trump has a tendency to change his decisions quickly -The Kremlin didn’t deny the meeting - they just mentioned a postponement and preparation -Kirill Dmitriev met with Steve Witkoff in Miami, which could mean preparations are already underway Based on all this, I’d keep an eye on Trump, Putin, and their media outlets - because the meeting could be announced at any of their upcoming conferences. Always double-check your information and do your own research! Good luck, yo!
11
2
65
8,738
Time to make money on Elon Musk’s tweets First, here’s the tweet stats from last year: April – 321 May – 342 June – 300 July – 338 August – 400 September – 363 October – 1290 November – 1350 December – 1620 For September and October 2025, Musk tweeted: September – 1290 October – 1147 If we overlay the previous data, he’ll most likely post 1300+ tweets in December. I’m betting on: -1280-1319 -1320-1359 -1360-1399 -1400+ I think I’ll adjust my positions as December gets closer. polymarket.com/event/elon-mu…
9
6
64
11,287
I always thought that the Longshot Betting strategy didn’t make much sense, since you usually lose more than you win. But on @Polymarket , this strategy actually makes sense - during any info hype, your bet can skyrocket and give you several Xs in profit, and you can sell it even before the event is resolved. Maybe it’s worth trying this approach - what do you think?
12
2
62
5,029
Probably, sports is the most unprofitable area in prediction markets. You can’t predict a player’s form, their mood, and so on. In the screenshot below is one of the most unprofitable traders in the “Sports” category. It’s better to focus on political markets, where there are fewer external factors than in sports
25
59
5,692
Battle of Traders on Polymarket This is probably the most legendary market currently on Polymarket. Here, traders put their faith in their convictions and arguments. Every dollar in this market is a bet against regulators, time, and the platform’s own destiny. This isn’t just a prediction - it’s a real-time war of beliefs. Who’s right? We’ll find out on December 31st - or maybe even sooner. Here’s the market: polymarket.com/event/will-po…
26
1
61
4,590
I wonder if someone told him that you can place a bet on Polymarket and get a good daily return on your deposit? By the way, this is a perfect example of how you can make a solid profit in less than 24 hours - wait for the OpenAI announcement, place your bet, and earn +10–15%. Profit!
11
1
58
7,768
GM Polyfam! That face you make when you start copy-trading an insider, and he places a bet on the Second Coming of Jesus before the end of 2025
20
1
58
1,876
I see that many traders on @Polymarket are discussing this bet, and everyone has their own vision of the situation - but let’s break it down a little. Here’s what data and news we currently have: -The most amusing one for me - Pavel Durov offered to buy back the stolen historical artifacts from the robbers, lol. How does he even imagine that working? -The robbers dropped the crown during their escape and left plenty of DNA traces, which speeds up the investigation -They were also listed in Interpol’s database - the whole world will be looking for them -Former BRB officer Pascal Schkdlera stated that the criminals will definitely be caught, though he doesn’t guarantee the relics will be recovered -They committed a crime against France’s heritage, something that offends every French citizen - meaning even the smallest mistake and they’ll be caught I’ve seen some traders argue for “No” saying that previous Louvre robberies took a long time to solve - but the last major Louvre robbery happened over 25 years ago. Back then, there were no such advanced forensic technologies, far fewer surveillance cameras, and many other modern tools simply didn’t exist. So I’ll take the risk and bet on “Yes” I believe in the French police, Interpol - and just a little bit in Pavel Durov!
17
55
6,097
My heart beats in percentages My blood trades in real time @Polymarket supercycle
Regeneration in process...99% My blood is blue Polymarket supercycle
16
55
2,125
Don't you trust @EclipseFND ? Today I checked the number of $tUSD holders and was shocked! There are only 5k $tUSD holders in total! Those who trusted Eclipse will be rewarded! #token #holders #asc
12
1
50
1,683
Dead Pixels are truly surprising with such volume and a floor of 0.10E, the project looks like an undervalued gem
22
4
42
2,365
This is probably one of the coolest traders on Polymarket He started his journey in March 2025 with just a couple hundred bucks, and in less than a year, he’s made a $20K PnL I think he’s definitely someone worth watching and analyzing his trades His profile: polymarket.com/profile/0x36f…
25
1
52
4,040
Have you ever thought about the fact that you can actually make money from attention? Today, beta access has opened for @TrendleFi - the first prediction market where you don’t trade stocks or memecoins, but attention. Here’s how it works: -It aggregates data from YouTube, Reddit, and X - tracking which narratives are gaining momentum in the community. -The price rises when a trend starts taking off and going viral. -The price drops when the attention fades. Full transparency - under each attention market, you can see the real posts driving that trend. You see the source of attention in real time. Right now, there aren’t many markets yet, but I think in the future there will be a huge variety of attention markets on different topics. The future belongs to attention - and attention is money!
41
52
2,253
You already know I love high-risk bets and that I’m a bit of a madman, right? So, I think there might be some profit to be made from the potential Trump–Putin meeting. Currently, there’s a 65% chance that Trump and Putin won’t meet before the end of 2025, and that percentage rose after Trump canceled his meeting with Putin in Budapest. But is everything really that straightforward? Should we take Trump’s words at face value? Okay, we know the White House’s position-Trump declined it-but what about the Kremlin’s position? Here’s what Putin said about the meeting: -Regarding the Budapest summit: it’s more about postponement than cancellation. -It would be a mistake to approach the Budapest summit without proper preparation. -Russia has always supported ongoing dialogue. -Dialogue is always better than confrontation, arguments, or continuing the war. So, Putin isn’t ruling out a meeting with Trump. That means by the end of the year, Trump could change his mind a dozen times about meeting with him. Here’s what we’ve got so far: -Trump has a tendency to change his decisions quickly -The Kremlin didn’t deny the meeting - they just mentioned a postponement and preparation -Kirill Dmitriev met with Steve Witkoff in Miami, which could mean preparations are already underway Based on all this, I’d keep an eye on Trump, Putin, and their media outlets - because the meeting could be announced at any of their upcoming conferences. Always double-check your information and do your own research! Good luck, yo!
20
2
50
11,442
A smart wallet or insider just placed a large bet that Gemini 3.0 will be released on November 22. I tried to find any related addresses, but came up empty - the address used to deposit on Polymarket is completely new and only links back to exchange wallets. This trader is either a newcomer or is being intentionally careful and leaving no trace. By the way, this same trader made +1300% on the market “Will the government shutdown end November 12?” Here’s their profile: polymarket.com/@frost18x?via…
23
57
5,345
GM Polymarket brotherhood! Can someone tell me why the Pope is leading in this market? When was the last time any of you even googled him? Maybe it’s time to bet on Trump instead - he’s leading in the metrics anyway, and there’s even a suspicious wallet that placed a bet on him. What do you think?
26
3
47
3,785
How I found a market maker on a prediction market and how they influence the odds and the “truth” Recently, I was hunting for insiders on Polymarket using Arkham Intelligence. I noticed something strange - the account “imabigfan” put $130k on Cuomo a couple days ago. Right now that position is down $47k. The odds dropped from 10% to 6%. I started digging and realized - this is Flowdesk, one of the biggest market makers. How do they influence the odds? Flowdesk isn’t just a trader - they’re a market maker operating on 140+ exchanges at the same time. They have: • Huge capital (they can put $130k into a single market) • Information on the movements of other big players • Tools for arbitrage across platforms When Flowdesk puts in big money, it’s not a signal of truth - it’s odds manipulation. They create the appearance of demand, which pulls other traders in. How does it work? -They bought Cuomo a couple days ago -They add more $$ -Volume grows, people see movement -“Smart money?” - regular traders think -They start buying, price goes up -Flowdesk unloads through spreads and arbitrage, even if the position is in the red Why don’t they care about -$47k? -Because they make money on: -Spread trading -Arbitrage -Volatility -Fees (they can trade on behalf of clients) A $47k loss on one position is just the cost of creating volatility - and that volatility can earn them $100k+ on other instruments. What does this mean for the truth? Prediction markets don’t reflect reality - they reflect the positions of market-makers. Polymarket is showing Cuomo at 10–12%. In reality, his probability is more like 3–5% (based on polls and the actual political landscape). That 5–9% difference is direct odds manipulation. Media says, “Cuomo is rising on Polymarket!” People see it, voters get anxious. The odds start shaping reality through the information environment. Conclusion Prediction markets were designed to be an honest way to forecast the future. But when market-makers like Flowdesk can put hundreds of thousands into a single market, the odds end up reflecting capital - not truth.
12
2
46
17,571
Why is this market on Polymarket gaining popularity and reaching such high volume? There’s a market on Polymarket called “What will happen before GTA VI?” with a total volume of $6.3M - and that’s not by accident Here’s why: -Arbitrage with guaranteed profit -Liquidity rewards -Low risk attracts newcomers The 50/50 rule has turned this market into a playground for arbitrage traders and liquidity providers. However, I wouldn’t recommend getting involved - if you’re inexperienced, you could easily lose money. This market: polymarket.com/event/what-wi…
24
1
45
6,012
Smart wallet or insider on Polymarket? This trader is betting “Yes” on “Will the government shutdown end November 8–11?” I found his deposit address - the amount there is impressive. I also tried to trace any interesting links to his wallet but didn’t find anything. Either he joined this market just for fun, or he actually knows something. His profile: polymarket.com/@xy9?via=mark… His deposit address: 0xf4Fc21ee9a6114D75434BeA8C48c5c89ACC3982D
19
1
41
5,215
That’s me when I’m watching Trump’s live stream and placing bets on @Polymarket I love that feeling
9
2
41
1,941
Take a pause - and follow @Polymarket The prediction market supercycle is already here.
24/7 lock in on Polymarket Prediction market supercycle.
7
42
2,107
Popular Spotify Artists on Polymarket Why is The Weeknd so undervalued on this market? He has: -Dominance in monthly listeners -Consistently in the top 5 artists since 2022 -A new song release, “Cry For Me,” which boosts his chances My opinion might be biased because I like this artist. In any case, always verify all information yourself! This market: polymarket.com/event/3-most-…
24
41
9,302
GM, @Polymarket fam! This morning I woke up wondering - why hasn’t anyone created a Telegram bot that sends alerts about suspicious insider wallets yet? There was already a case when a new wallet made a huge bet that Israel would strike Iran - and just an hour later, Iran was hit by missile attacks. I might actually build such a bot that would: -Notify about suspicious wallets -Show the size of positions traders open -Track position activity - passive buy-and-hold vs. active open/close (an indicator of informativeness) -Display inventory ratio - how quickly a trader rebalances their positions -Measure timing precision - how fast they react to news (speed traders react within minutes) -Analyze market diversity - whether they trade in only one category or spread out Just imagine opening Telegram and seeing all these wallet metrics - you’d instantly gain huge informational advantage. Plus, the bot could notify you about such wallets in real time. I might add more filters later. Also, I’m not claiming this idea as mine - if anyone can build it faster and better, go for it! Feel free to drop a comment on what features you’d like to see in such a bot. Good luck and have an amazing day!
18
1
41
1,355
Got a secret package from @Atlantislq Opened it - and inside was @shampoo_capital No coincidences when you’re in Polymarket
Ordered a huge box of random figurines. Opened it: and somehow the whole Polymarket team was inside. I will distribute them to loyal ambassadors! Who do you wanna pull? Coincidences don’t happen when you’re deep in @Polymarket
9
1
38
1,800
Why are the odds for “Yes” so high? Do you guys have insiders in the cartel who know for sure there will be another narco-tanker? But seriously, the cartel members aren’t idiots - they’re unlikely to send another tanker knowing that the U.S. fleet is stationed off the coast
16
39
2,031
The Venezuela-U.S. conflict is currently the most discussed topic on Polymarket Key factors for “Yes”: -If Trump wants to act, it has to happen immediately. After that, the political window shifts to late November/December. -On October 30, the Wall Street Journal reported that a list of military targets is already prepared and in Trump’s hands. Once targets are identified and approved by the president, this usually means readiness for execution within 48–72 hours -An aircraft carrier arrived in the region at the end of October. Deploying such an asset costs around $5 billion per year. Historically, such deployments aren’t done without reason -The flight ban starting November 1 is preparation for a military operation, not a reaction to one. Such measures are taken before action, not after. -Trump has already shown a willingness to strike sovereign countries without declaring war - the B-2 strike on Iranian nuclear sites happened after the press secretary said a decision would be made “within two weeks,” while the operation was already being prepared -Public denials by Trump and Rubio - it was the same before the strike on Iran -If Maduro announced readiness for mobilization, it means he believes the risk is high now, not in December -The Night Stalkers are already deployed in Puerto Rico. This elite unit is usually deployed 48 hours before an operation Key factors for “No”: -Trump said “NO” twice in response to a direct question in a CBS interview -ABC News cites military sources: “Military sources said they did not expect an imminent attack.” If an order had been given, it would have leaked through military channels -November includes midweek state elections and Thanksgiving -5,000 Igla-S missiles could shoot down expensive U.S. helicopters and aircraft. Trump sees potential losses -Regional leaders have opposed intervention. Trump usually ignores them, but it adds extra risk to his rhetoric -Congress has not been called into emergency sessions. If there were a threat of war within 4 days, Republicans would have demanded meetings to discuss strategy These are all the factors I could find. I’ll place bets for November 7 and November 30 in case nothing happens on November 7 Verify all information yourself and trust no one but yourself! This market: polymarket.com/event/us-x-ve…
19
3
39
3,450
GM Polyfam! Today’s plan: -Find an interesting market -Analyze that market -Figure out how to get a PnL as good as this trader’s: polymarket.com/profile/0x0e9…
24
36
2,080
How a single unexpected team decision can change a Polymarket trader’s life One decision by the Aztec team completely changed this trader’s life for the better. Although this wallet looks a bit suspicious, it’s been consistently buying “No” shares for the past week. Something tells me this wallet might be connected to the @aztecnetwork team - I’ll try to find out more soon. Here’s their profile: polymarket.com/@tradesssss?v…
13
38
4,852
There’s a lot of buzz building around the New York elections. Big wallets are entering this market, and insiders aren’t sitting on the sidelines. I found an interesting wallet that placed $30K on Cuomo winning these elections. You might say, “So what’s interesting about that?” Well, this trader actually activated their wallet two weeks ago, meaning they were preparing to enter this market quietly without raising suspicion... and I found them! In the screenshots below, you can see their activity and that they funded the wallet through Coinbase. By the way, there were no previous transactions on this wallet-it was well-prepared. I think this one’s worth keeping an eye on.
11
34
4,403
A trader who doesn’t read U.S. government news or reports. This guy put down a pretty big bet that the U.S. will make $200–500 billion from tariffs. But the fiscal year has already ended, and according to preliminary estimates, it closed at $195 billion. There’s also the question of how much of that money might be returned through court rulings, which further reduces the chances of hitting the $200–500 billion range. Either I’m an idiot, or this trader knows more than I do. His profile: polymarket.com/@bajea?via=ma…
15
45
5,098
I heard that if you like this post and subscribe to @Polymarket , you can end up in this folder-and maybe even more.
Everyone who likes and replies will be added to this folder and get some good karma! Polymarket Supercycle
12
1
35
1,531
This is probably the fastest bet that delivered a good return. Thanks to ISW for updating the map by the end of the month.
I have information that Kupyansk was captured by Russian forces, but the ISW maps don’t want to update until they’re provided with video footage from the scene. On one hand, it’s good that ISW isn’t rushing to conclusions and waits for verified facts before updating the map. On the other hand, this slows down trading on @Polymarket - we earn based on news, but we can’t do that if the maps lag behind the updates by several days
10
1
33
4,608
Insider or smart wallet knows Aztec will launch this year? Today, I came across a suspicious Polymarket profile that was created about an hour ago. My first thought was: “Maybe this is an insider from the Aztec team who knows something?” But no. It turned out to be @luyaoyuan - a DeFi/Web3 influencer who specializes in deep crypto project analysis. I think he might actually know something, given his high level of expertise in this space. Maybe he’ll explain in the comments why he made that move - would be interesting to hear. Definitely someone worth keeping an eye on. Here’s his profile: polymarket.com/@luyaoyuan?vi…
11
1
34
6,211
Congratulations! If you were following the news or simply placed a bet on each of the treasures, then congratulations on a good profit. As for me, I’m going to continue developing my news parser
In addition to the previous bet: Another market has appeared on @Polymarket related to the Louvre robbery. If you have a fast parser for French news, you can get ahead of others and earn a decent percentage on your deposit. I think I’ll be monitoring the French press over the next week to place my bet faster than everyone else.
4
34
3,687
We are @Gradient_HQ and we are one big family! 💜 Every node is us, together building a decentralized future. 🚀 Join us in our decentralized future! 🔒 #GradientNetwork #Web3 #Family #Crypto
54
4
24
1,113
This wallet was identified as an insider or a smart wallet. But in reality, it’s a degenerate from Solana - looks like he realized that only a few make money on memes, but anyone can earn on Polymarket. Here are his wallets: 6Hu85GZPz74fEqiT5aFVdXR2yAuKFFiVW2Yqkv6Nx3JR polymarket.com/@milady69?via…
10
2
30
3,222
This trader on Polymarket showed impressive results over the week. Just a week ago, he placed a $1,131 bet and made $5,000. Now he’s betting on the market “Will the government shutdown end November 16 or later?” - and he’s on “No.” I got curious about who he is, and I managed to find not only his wallet but also his X account. Maybe he’ll share why he bet on “No” and how he makes his predictions? @JawnzCrypto His Polymarket profile: polymarket.com/@jawnzo?via=m… The market he bet on: polymarket.com/event/when-wi…
9
2
33
2,711
A clear example of how a market maker entered a prediction market and is manipulating the odds. You might say they’re using a small amount and it can’t influence the price. Yes, but that’s only one wallet I managed to find - they’re not dumb enough to try manipulating the market from a single wallet. There are most likely at least 10 of these wallets. Here’s their wallet: polymarket.com/@imabigfan?vi…
How I found a market maker on a prediction market and how they influence the odds and the “truth” Recently, I was hunting for insiders on Polymarket using Arkham Intelligence. I noticed something strange - the account “imabigfan” put $130k on Cuomo a couple days ago. Right now that position is down $47k. The odds dropped from 10% to 6%. I started digging and realized - this is Flowdesk, one of the biggest market makers. How do they influence the odds? Flowdesk isn’t just a trader - they’re a market maker operating on 140+ exchanges at the same time. They have: • Huge capital (they can put $130k into a single market) • Information on the movements of other big players • Tools for arbitrage across platforms When Flowdesk puts in big money, it’s not a signal of truth - it’s odds manipulation. They create the appearance of demand, which pulls other traders in. How does it work? -They bought Cuomo a couple days ago -They add more $$ -Volume grows, people see movement -“Smart money?” - regular traders think -They start buying, price goes up -Flowdesk unloads through spreads and arbitrage, even if the position is in the red Why don’t they care about -$47k? -Because they make money on: -Spread trading -Arbitrage -Volatility -Fees (they can trade on behalf of clients) A $47k loss on one position is just the cost of creating volatility - and that volatility can earn them $100k+ on other instruments. What does this mean for the truth? Prediction markets don’t reflect reality - they reflect the positions of market-makers. Polymarket is showing Cuomo at 10–12%. In reality, his probability is more like 3–5% (based on polls and the actual political landscape). That 5–9% difference is direct odds manipulation. Media says, “Cuomo is rising on Polymarket!” People see it, voters get anxious. The odds start shaping reality through the information environment. Conclusion Prediction markets were designed to be an honest way to forecast the future. But when market-makers like Flowdesk can put hundreds of thousands into a single market, the odds end up reflecting capital - not truth.
9
1
30
14,035
This Polymarket trader was inactive for a year - and now he’s back. A year ago, this trader made $20K, and today he suddenly became active again. He placed a bet on “Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?” - Yes. Does he know something, or is he just trying his luck after a year’s break? His profile: polymarket.com/@Stickyricky?…
18
30
5,514
Why isn’t there the same kind of competition on Polymarket? It would be really interesting to watch different AIs analyze events and place bets on them. That would be an amazing spectacle! By the way, here’s an event where you can see the leading AI trading coins: polymarket.com/event/nof1ai-…
7
30
2,489
This trader recently created their wallet and started building a position on the New York election about 7 hours ago. Another trader began building a position on the same market around 21 hours ago. It looks like something is starting to happen with this market, and insiders are beginning to take their positions. I’m starting to keep an eye on them.
12
1
29
3,382
Today, the elections in Argentina have ended, with LLA claiming victory. Pay attention to the chart and the timing of this market. If you had been following the news in Argentina, you would have had around 15–30 minutes to place a bet on LLA. This time gap shows how people underestimate prediction markets, as reactions to news often come slowly. Those who control information are the ones who profit. Below, you can analyze this market yourself
12
30
2,139
I found an interesting query on @wallchain_xyz Limitless page. You might find it useful if you want to check your ranking compared to others on the @trylimitless leaderboard. Here’s what I discovered: Mindshare Percentage: 0.0032% of the total ecosystem attention - this shows what share of overall “attention” or influence within the Limitless community this user holds. Relative Mindshare: 3.23e-05 - a normalized mindshare value that represents the user’s true share of attention across the ecosystem. Rank: 7th position among all participants X Score: 7 points out of 1000 possible Score Percentile: 44.87% (above 44.87% of other users) I think this might help you better navigate the Wallchain leaderboards.
21
1
27
785
Taylor Swift’s husband is betting on @Polymarket ? Maybe he’s the father of her future child - otherwise, I have no idea why he’s so confident about it. What’s more, he’s already made +60% for his kid’s college fund.
2
1
28
6,652
Looks like Maduro might be leaving soon Judging by the news around Venezuela, Maduro will soon run out of allies -His own people are against him -The cartel is against him -The U.S. is against him He’ll either step down on his own, or he’ll be forced out
10
28
1,818
This trader either knows something or has some extra money to play with. I tried to track his wallets, but all his deposits on Polymarket come from an exchange to a burn wallet, and then from there to Polymarket. He might be concerned about his anonymity. Here’s his profile: polymarket.com/@simon1122?vi…
7
29
4,876
GM @Polymarket Brotherhood! If you use @Polysights to track insider wallets like I do, I recommend doing a deeper analysis of those wallets. Polysights identifies wallets based on certain patterns and doesn’t provide a 100% guarantee that they belong to insiders. In the screenshot below, you can see that this wallet placed a pretty large bet on “No” and lost, even though it was marked as an insider. This is your morning reminder that every event analysis should be thorough. Good luck, yo!
12
2
28
1,536
How I love Brazil - but even more, I love placing bets on Polymarket. Why am I betting against Lula in the 2026 presidential election? -Discrepancy with polls: The average polling number in October is 42.6%, while Polymarket confidence in his victory is 56%. -Possible tie in the second round -Economic issues: Inflation and slowing growth are hitting his core electorate. -Corruption legacy: The worst score in the Corruption Perception Index in history. -Age and health: 80 years old, brain surgery, dizziness issues. -Risk of Bolsonaro’s amnesty: If Congress grants amnesty, the situation could change dramatically. These are the reasons I’d bet against Lula - but we shouldn’t forget that Brazil is a corrupt country, and the elections could be rigged. Other than that, this market seems overvalued. I won’t enter it yet - I’ll wait for key moments. For now, I’ll just keep watching these elections
16
28
2,177
This is probably one of the true legends of Polymarket. He has over 15,000 predictions. He has a +$300K PnL. He created his Polymarket profile at the beginning of 2025. He achieved all of this in less than a year! Man, you’re a living Polymarket legend, @Eltonma . His profile: polymarket.com/@ArmageddonRe…
22
3
55
5,067
Will GTA 6 get delayed again? I think Polymarket traders are overestimating this market. The GTA 6 release could really happen in November, but Rockstar might push it back by a week or even a few days - and in that case, this market would resolve as “Yes” If you like risk and high rewards, you could take a position here, but I personally wouldn’t - it’s pure casino vibes. Here’s the market: polymarket.com/event/gta-6-l…
9
26
1,042
A trader who made money thanks to Trump and lost everything thanks to Musk A sad and funny picture at the same time - a U.S. president made someone rich, and then a billionaire genius made him poor. Here’s his profile: polymarket.com/@DunderMiffin…
11
25
1,487
zerosupercycle brought together the best for Polymarket. We love markets, we love data, we love memes, we love Polymarket!
6
26
1,067
Read the market rules on Polymarket This trader entered a market betting that the Second Coming of Jesus wouldn’t happen before the release of GTA 6, thinking he’d make a 50% profit But it’s not that simple - the rules state that if neither the Second Coming nor the release of GTA 6 happens, the market will be settled at 50/50 As a result, this trader lost a small percentage on this market His profile: polymarket.com/@nauhc?via=ma… A market you probably shouldn’t bet on: polymarket.com/event/what-wi…
6
25
24,797
Gm polyfam! There are so many events and so many insiders on @Polymarket I don’t know how to start my day - hunting for insiders or analyzing the markets?
9
24
1,041
Does this user know something about the White House? Maybe he works in the administration? I’m interested in the event about funding before October 31. I’m thinking of adding this user to my watchlist
4
24
1,162
In addition to the previous bet: Another market has appeared on @Polymarket related to the Louvre robbery. If you have a fast parser for French news, you can get ahead of others and earn a decent percentage on your deposit. I think I’ll be monitoring the French press over the next week to place my bet faster than everyone else.
I see that many traders on @Polymarket are discussing this bet, and everyone has their own vision of the situation - but let’s break it down a little. Here’s what data and news we currently have: -The most amusing one for me - Pavel Durov offered to buy back the stolen historical artifacts from the robbers, lol. How does he even imagine that working? -The robbers dropped the crown during their escape and left plenty of DNA traces, which speeds up the investigation -They were also listed in Interpol’s database - the whole world will be looking for them -Former BRB officer Pascal Schkdlera stated that the criminals will definitely be caught, though he doesn’t guarantee the relics will be recovered -They committed a crime against France’s heritage, something that offends every French citizen - meaning even the smallest mistake and they’ll be caught I’ve seen some traders argue for “No” saying that previous Louvre robberies took a long time to solve - but the last major Louvre robbery happened over 25 years ago. Back then, there were no such advanced forensic technologies, far fewer surveillance cameras, and many other modern tools simply didn’t exist. So I’ll take the risk and bet on “Yes” I believe in the French police, Interpol - and just a little bit in Pavel Durov!
7
25
5,318
We are knights of the same order. Bound not by crowns - but conviction. Our faith is data. Our weapon - prediction. We stand for @Polymarket
The banners are raised. The oath is spoken. To the frontier where truth meets value. @Polymarket - our battlefield of belief.
8
24
1,663
The hottest event - I’m really curious to see what happens next! I can’t wait for it to end; it’s like an exciting series before bed, haha
7
23
477
Do you think that if Trump didn’t win the Nobel Prize in 2025, he will win it in 2026?😀
9
3
23
1,839
Looks like another good opportunity to earn has appeared on @Polymarket I don’t think Russian forces will capture Kupiansk by the end of October, since their main focus right now is the Donetsk front, where heavy fighting continues. There are also only two weeks left until the end of October, and that’s not enough time to take a city. So I’m betting “No.”
4
23
792
How to make money on Trump? On November 7, turn on the live broadcast and listen to what Trump says. If you have fast hands, you can make a pretty good percentage on your deposit. I also think there’s a high chance he’ll say these words: -Putin -Ukraine -War/Wars -NATO Here’s the market: polymarket.com/event/what-wi…
13
22
1,594
Looks like this trader on Polymarket might actually have some insider info. An hour ago, he averaged down his position - either he really knows something, or he’s just a degen. His profile: polymarket.com/@Stickyricky?…
This Polymarket trader was inactive for a year - and now he’s back. A year ago, this trader made $20K, and today he suddenly became active again. He placed a bet on “Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?” - Yes. Does he know something, or is he just trying his luck after a year’s break? His profile: polymarket.com/@Stickyricky?…
4
20
2,122
Based on recent news, the war between Ukraine and Russia may come to an end by late 2026. The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are showing a positive attitude and are ready for dialogue. I recommend waiting for the meeting between Putin and Trump in Budapest before deciding whether to bet on “Yes” or “No.” It would also be beneficial for Trump to bring this conflict to an end, eliminate one of the major problems, and begin addressing issues with China, the Middle East, and Venezuela, as well as the country’s internal challenges.
9
3
22
3,199
I’m looking at my old bets right now and don’t remember why I made them. Guys at @Polymarket , please add notes to bets - otherwise, I can’t remember why I made that choice
5
1
21
430
Looks like I got the profit earlier, thanks to Trump. Today I’ll eat haha +300% on Polymarket, maybe now I’ll get Polymarket Traders?👀
AI @Polysights told me this event is sensitive to news. Will I be able to profit from the info noise by the end of the month?
8
22
818
Mamdani is catching up to Trump in Polymarket markets It feels like there are almost as many markets about Mamdani now as there are about Trump. Let’s just hope Mamdani doesn’t decide to run for President of the United States.
5
21
744
Looks like I’m already in profit. Too bad I couldn’t get in at a lower entry. I think by December the odds for “Yes” and “No” will be 50/50
Why does everyone think Hyperliquid will earn $8M in fees? The reason I believe the odds for “Yes” are too high is because there’s currently a boom among perp DEXs. Most users have moved to other perps to farm points and get airdrops. If you check DeFi Llama, you’ll see that Hyperliquid has dropped in the rankings and is being overtaken by other perps. I’ve put 1% of my deposit on “No,” but I don’t recommend you do the same = I’m a madman, yo.
6
22
784
Here I found my brothers in spirit and mind. Here I found my second family = thank you @Polymarket and @zscdao for bringing us together!
Polymarket changed my reach, not just my feed everyone’s been sharing their stats lately - couldn’t skip this one since I started writing about Polymarket, something shifted the charts went vertical, impressions turned into real eyes, and followers stopped scrolling it’s wild how one niche can flip your presence overnight Polymarket isn’t just a market - it’s an algorithm of attention
11
22
787
How does Trendle measure attention? @TrendleFi tracks attention across three major platforms - YouTube, X, and Reddit (with more platforms to be added in the future). All this attention is combined into what’s called the Attention Index. The Attention Index is a real-time metric (updated every minute!) that shows how much people are actually paying attention to a specific topic or person. How it works: Trendle collects data from three platforms: -X: retweets, replies, likes, quotes, bookmarks, impressions -Reddit: posts, scores, and comments from Hot, Top, and Rising -YouTube: views, likes, comments All this data is processed and analyzed every minute: -Normalizes data (brings everything to a common scale) -Applies exponential decay (the fresher - the more important) -Filters out outliers (so one viral post doesn’t distort the overall picture) -Smooths noise (for a clearer trend signal) DoA (Dollar of Attention) The Engagement Index is multiplied by a coefficient, resulting in the price of attention, which you can trade. Why this matters: -Transparency - no black box, only deterministic math -Speed - updates every minute, catching spikes in popularity -Integrity - fake accounts and bots are filtered out -Comparability - a trend with DoA 100 = another trend with DoA 100 Example: A big news story about Bitcoin breaks - likes and retweets on X start spiking - YouTube clips rack up views - Reddit blows up - within minutes, the Attention Index surges - and your position increases in value. Attention is the new asset. Those who learn how to analyze it will be the ones who control massive capital.
14
22
637
Is this trader mad at @Lighter_xyz ? This trader had a large position in Lighter, but recently he pulled almost all his liquidity out and moved a small portion to Polymarket, betting on >FDV $2B. Now I’m curious - is this his only wallet on Polymarket, or does he have more wallets and plans for them?
6
21
1,148
Kalshi isn’t about prediction markets; it’s about a bookmaker’s office Choose @Polymarket
Polymarket vs Kalshi Top-categories: > Polymarket: Politics, Sports, Crypto, Culture, Trump > Kalshi: Sports, Crypto, Politics (everything else <1%) Fun fact: Sports = 92% of Kalshi volume while Polymarket users love Trump more than Tech or Weather markets.
7
20
813
Easy money on Polymarket or is it not so straightforward with the New York election? I just came across this market on Polymarket and can't figure out why the "Yes" isn't at 100%? Even the built-in Market Context says the difference in votes is 9.8%, am I missing something or are many traders overlooking this market? I can't jump in here because I'm worried I don't fully understand it. Here’s the market: polymarket.com/event/will-zo…
7
20
5,217
P2E games. Past, present, future. Today I would like to talk about p2e games, their development and what awaits us in 2023. What games I'm waiting for and will play.
1
166
Polymarket knows the future. This market showed up even before the results of the New York election - does Polymarket know the future?
BREAKING: Zohran Mamdani will be the next Mayor of NYC, as projected by Polymarket. Polls are dead. Tomorrow’s news, today.
6
1
21
1,205
I wanted to take a risk on this event on @Polymarket , but I couldn’t find a single reason to bet “Yes.” The U.S. won’t provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine for two main reasons: It would immediately worsen relations with Russia, and Trump doesn’t want that - they’ve only just started to improve. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have severely depleted the U.S. missile reserves. Earlier this year, the U.S. government allocated $2.2 billion to replenish those stockpiles. So I’m putting 15% of my deposit on “No.” Good luck
9
1
20
484