Building the Conviction economy @xomarket ❌⭕
- Tweets 1,571
- Following 1,023
- Followers 2,425
- Likes 3,219
Pinned Tweet
Habibis, @xomarket just closed a $6M seed to build permissionless conviction markets anyone can spin up a Yes/No market on any belief in seconds.
Led by @20vcFund and @picuscap , with @cbventures, and others along with 30+ angels including @patcummins30
Prediction markets cracked this open. We're opening the rest.
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The Conviction Market just got funded!
Led by @cyberfund & @Delphi_Ventures with backing from some of the sharpest minds in the space with the highest conviction ;)
Prediction markets were the prototype. Conviction Markets are the evolution.
@xomarket
Here is my story: 🧵
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Prediction markets are still so underrated.
They can evolve into:
+ Options markets (hedging beliefs)
+ Insurance markets (crowdsourced risk)
+ Opinion markets (social conviction)
+ Coordination tools (truth-driven funding)
We’ve barely scratched the surface.
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$1,000,000+ in trading volume on XO in just 30 hours, with an average of $18.15k per market.
User-generated conviction markets are the new meta.
Huge shoutout to @WalidOfNow and our tech team.
Many sleepless nights, and this is only the beginning.
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After a year of grinding, countless sleepless nights from the whole team, setbacks, breakthroughs, and belief…
In under 4 hours from launch, @xomarket crossed $250K volume.
Every dashboard refresh is a new number.
Every trade is trust.
This feels surreal.
It’s truly humbling to see the excitement, belief, and conviction our community is placing in us.
Thank you.
We’re just getting started, and we’re going to work every day to be worthy of this trust.
XO is live.
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Conviction markets aren’t niche anymore.
@xomarket is now #1 on @KaitoAI for Info markets and #7 on @cookiedotfun for overall crypto mindshare.
The shift is happening, conviction is becoming an asset class.
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Officially a sloth
Do...not...stay...lazy...on @AliHabbabeh
Welcome to the sloths family to the co-founder of @xomarket
Prediction markets are coming to Celestia...and a space will be held on Tuesday
Link below 🦥
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Just got my @freedomfactory dGEN1 and it came in a fancy package.
can't wait to place some convictions using this :)
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An amazing welcome from the Sloths fam and great Engagement on XO already on day 1
What a vibe!
🦥
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Prediction markets are exploding.
But as long as platforms gate which markets get listed, they’ll never capture culture.
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X has "For You"
TikTok has its algorithmic feed.
Facebook has .. well it's crap.
@xomarket is next.
Your CrowdFeed will soon be personalized, powered by your interactions, previous trades, interests, and convictions.
Say goodbye to generic trending pages 👋
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Lots of imposters on Discord & X pretending to be @xomarket team. Stay sharp 🚨
We’re fully doxxed, here’s the real squad:
@WalidOfNow Co-founder & CTO
@delzlon Marketing Lead
@sundaymiimii Community Lead
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We launched natural-language market creation yesterday and the response was instant.
In under 1 hour, users created 300 markets.
90% used our AI assistant.
10% went manual to craft their own.
The demand was just waiting to be unlocked. If that’s not PMF, I don’t know what is.
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The kinda partnership I am bullish on
Great community, always arguing, always supporting, always lazy
Thrilled... to... announce...
@xomarket just got LAZY 🦥💤
We’ll be getting comfy with XO Market to support them in reshaping prediction markets with @celestia underneath!
Enter: permissionless conviction markets.
Anyone can create markets based on personal convictions❌⭕️
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Today is different for @xomarket team
XO Market Mainnet Beta has finally arrived.
Step into a new era of user-generated prediction markets - social, open, and powered by conviction.
Your beliefs. Your markets. Your edge.
XO Market Mainnet Beta is live! β
We’re shipping our biggest upgrade yet
- User-generated prediction markets.
- USDC deposits
- Multi-outcome markets
- Refreshed UI/UX
- 2 CP for every 1 USDC traded
- 1 CP for every 1 USDC deposited
- 0% protocol fees
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Every VC convo eventually lands here:
“How do you compete with Polymarket?”
You don’t.
You don’t compete with gravity.
Polymarket is Polymarket.
It’s the Wall Street of prediction markets: deep liquidity, U.S. politics, macro degeneracy.
Respect.
But XO isn’t trying to be Wall Street.
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Not every prediction market has to be about US politics!
There are 6 other continents. 195 countries.
European football, Asian elections, cricket rivalries, Bollywood drama, Love Island Australia…
Convictions are global
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As a project that came out of a @celestia Hackathon, can't recommend this enough 👇
Celestia's new bootcamp is a great chance for you to build your next venture
encodeclub.com/programmes/ca…
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Why we don’t have a roadmap?
Because every week our community tells us where to go next.
Tell us what matters, and we ship it.
70+ features/fixes requested from the community, we shipped ~20 and the rest are our roadmap.
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When one of the biggest volume trader on your leaderboard gives feedback…
It hits different.
Real conviction speaks loud.
.@xomarket got one of the most exotic UIUXs in the space. Absolutely gorgeous. The real competitor to polymarket is not anything else. Its XO fo shoooo.
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Hedge your risks on @xomarket
Think of prediction markets as your personal insurance company.
Here's how it works:
Just took out a loan? Create a market forecasting that interest rates will go up. If rates rise and hurt you financially, your prediction market winnings offset the loss.
Buying property in a specific area?Set up a market on local real estate prices falling. If the market crashes, your hedge pays out.
Booked a non-refundable trip? Create a market on travel disruptions or bad weather. Cancel your plans? At least you profit from the prediction.
Heavily invested in tech stocks? Hedge with a market betting on a tech downturn. Portfolio bleeds? Your prediction gains cushion the blow.
Turn uncertainty into opportunity. You can only do this on a market that allows you to create your OWN prediction markets!
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Under the hood:
- Sovereign rollup with @celestia underneath 🦣 enables us to have a performant chain with no gas wars, no shared bottlenecks, and the freedom to build markets that feel like Apps, not protocols.
- Low-liquidity friendly markets with LS-LMSR
- FUN but not .fun
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HUUUUGE
BNB Chain is now live on @xomarket!
XO allows anyone to launch their own prediction market, powered by an AI oracle that settles results instantly.
Note: This post is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. DYOR.
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LS-LMSR is unintuitive and can confuse traders.
In prediction markets, the cost function determines how prices respond to trades.
Let's talk about Convex cost functions (like standard LMSR) vs Concave cost functions (LS-LMSR) 👇
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80 Million Users of Bitget wallet now see XO market on top!
We've integrated @xomarket! XO Market Beta is open.
You can now:
> Explore XO Market inside Bitget Wallet
> Unlock access with code XO-BITGET (500 invites)
Get in early on the next alpha in prediction markets.
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Why are sports prediction markets gaining momentum?
We asked @AliHabbabeh (XO Market) why sports drive so much prediction market volume:
- People associate with their team more than their country
- Everyone has access to the same data (injuries, weather, lineups)
- Established sports betting industry makes the jump easy
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Most prediction markets today suffer from one big problem: liquidity fragmentation.
Let’s compare how Polymarket (orderbook) vs @xomarket (LS-LMSR) handle it 👇
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Prediction markets are the killer use case for crypto.
They need:
+ Trustless custody
+ Censorship resistance
+ Permissionless liquidity
+ Tokenized truth
Everything crypto was built for, prediction markets actually use.
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Always flattering to see new projects inspired by what we’re building at @xomarket and borrowed our UI, UX, language, technology choices.
The prediction markets' space is getting more interesting.
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Liquidity is the oxygen of prediction markets.
If your #1 obsession isn’t solving liquidity bootstrapping, you’re already dead.
You won’t beat Polymarket at their own game.
You won’t out-regulate Kalshi.
Copycats don’t survive.
Build something else or don’t bother.
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XO market miniapp is still live (until 15th of May)
$1000 is still up for grabs!
xo.market/token2049
a great demo made by @pls_giveup (great username and very slothy)
XO Market is hosting a space with @CelestiaOrg tomorrow at 5 PM UTC — cofounder @AliHabbabeh will be there, repping his newly acquired Sloth 🦥
XO Market = pump fun for prediction markets:
🆓 permissionless market creation
⚖️ fast & fair resolution with AI + community juries
🛠️ sovereign rollup built on @celestia
🏆 won 1st place in their category at mammothon
truly permissionless markets — bet on literally anything
+ recorded a quick demo of their mini app 🎥👇
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Alpha going live SOON (matter of days not weeks)
- Invite-only with test tokens
- Yes you get points and yes they carry over to mainnet
- No they are not some vague "you might get something"
Points = value + power
Read the full announcement about our pre-seed 👇
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Nick knows something ...
XO Market is one of the Celestia ecosystem projects I am most bullish on
They're building a new kind of prediction market called a "conviction market" which has some powerful new features compared to Polymarket and Kalshi, such as:
- Permissionless market creation
- Consistent liqudity even for niche markets
- AI powered market resolution
They have some pretty impressive user growth and retention stats as well as a well thought out go to market plan.
They'll be launching soon with Celestia underneath, so keep an eye out
@xomarket @celestia
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When we started XO last year, prediction markets were niche, and very few "KOLs" were talking about it
Today, they’re everywhere.
Welcome to the Prediction Markets Supercycle.
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With $600 volume only, Sergo made $100 realized PnL.
What a beast!
In just 3 days in the @xomarket beta test, I was able to earn at least $100 💸 And that’s all.
I really enjoy the idea - if you find a product where you can monetize your power transfer .
You simply place a bet on those that you believe in - and as you make money, you take away the profits .
Everything is decentralized, honestly.
Here it’s important not just to bet, but to watch how the collective mind is formed and the market reacts to trends in real time.
Posted to the platform 👉 beta.xo.market/markets
To put it briefly, there are many on-chain forecasts , and I am among the first to test it. 🚀
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Some crypto founders act like they solved world hunger, built SpaceX, and brought peace to the Middle East.
Bro, chill, it's partnership call, not a TED Talk.
gm
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Excited for this one
Prediction markets aren’t just gaining traction, they’re rewriting how we see the future. This Thursday, September 18, at 3 p.m. GST, join us for "Prediction Markets Supercycle" and hear from the builders making speculation smarter, sharper, and unstoppable!
nitter.app/i/spaces/1yNGabyWPOvJj
Speakers:
Andrew Lunardi (@cryptonardez), Head of Growth at @Immutable
Ali (@AliHabbabeh), Co-founder of @xomarket
lili (@lililashka), Co-founder of @predictionindex
Nicki (@Nicki57457), Research at @opinionlabsxyz
Host: Alex Mukhin (@alex__mcl), Co-Founder of Mpost, Founder of @r8rate
The cycle doesn’t end here, it accelerates. And this October, the conversation comes alive in person at Hack Seasons Singapore: lu.ma/hack_sg
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Bullish on @cyberfund isn’t even the word.
These guys are holding ETH since ICO!
The support they give us is unreal.
If Cyber backs you, strap in, it’s a rocket ride. 🚀
1/ We are excited to publish our investment thesis on @xomarket, a permissionless conviction market that is making any belief tradable.
cyber•Fund has co-led their Pre-Seed round and in this thread we unpack our rationale behind our bet.
cyber.fund/content/xo-market…
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Alpha tomorrow
Testnet, but very real!
for builders, reach out for an invite code.. I have 5 more to give away!
It's happening 🚀
The XO Market Alpha (testnet) goes live tomorrow at 3PM UTC!
The Conviction Market is opening its gates.
❌⭕α TLDR:
invite-only
Testnet
Real rewards
Conviction Points
with @celestia underneath 🦣
Here's everything you need to know about the Alpha 🧵👇
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🚨 We're looking for 50 founders & builders to test the alpha (testnet) of @xomarket
Alpha testers = early access + inner circle status + you earn points while testing 🧪
Interested? DM me your GitHub or your project's Twitter 👇
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Every prediction market inevitably carves out its own niche... no matter how you advertise it or how broad your ambitions are.
Polymarket owns U.S. politics.
Kalshi thrives on the NFL.
Your product doesn’t choose the niche, your community does.
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Tired of clickbaity headlines? Sick of fake news?
Get your news from prediction markets.
Efficient markets don't bluff
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I got rugged by a resolution oracle.
4 years of trading on prediction markets, then watched a clear win (the truth) get reversed by a discord chat.. and it was not a one-time thing.. happened over and over.
That's when I realized: prediction markets are kinda broken
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Prediction Markets aren't just another use case for crypto.
Excited for my Keynote at @CosmoverseHQ
Gonna drop some alpha live in Split!
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XO Oracle will be called MODRA
(Market Outcome and Dispute Resolution Agent)
If you’re building a prediction market, don’t waste time reinventing the oracle, or worse, relying on one that can be gamed, tap into MODRA. dms are open
5/ XO Truth Oracle
Instead of relying on external oracles susceptible to manipulation, XO Market is building their own hybrid oracle system.
AI Resolution Agents resolve cases autonomously, enabling fast payouts. There is a decentralized court that acts as a fail-safe.
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First week of @xomarket alpha launch we had ~1000 trades
Second week ~2500 trades
Last 24h alone ~2500 trades
Can we call it exponential?
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The louvre got rugged lol
A highly professional raid took place in Paris... in daylight.. from the most secure museum in the world!
I honestly don't think they'll catch them, so I went ahead and created a prediction market about it 😁
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Join us tonight to talk about sports prediction markets!
TODAY, 10 AM PT: @AliHabbabeh (XO Market) & @philtsa (Azuro) join us to talk sports markets. Tune in.
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The sloths keep moving... Slowly, but moving
What is @xomarket,
❌ XO Market is a Web3-based decentralized platform that offers a next-generation marketplace where users can turn their convictions into tradeable assets. Unlike traditional prediction markets, XO Market allows users to transform their personal beliefs into specific, impactful questions. This offers an opportunity to turn the collective intelligence of communities into financial instruments.
⭕️ One of the platform's standout features is its dynamic liquidity. As user participation increases, the system automatically scales the liquidity, meaning even a small initial pool can evolve into a large, deep market over time. Additionally, the hybrid oracle system known as MODRA determines outcomes quickly and reliably, solving the common issue of slow resolution times in prediction markets….
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Funny thing about ‘competitors’ in prediction markets: 80% of them are just Twitter accounts. Hard to study and learn from competition when there’s no actual product on the table.
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Traditional prediction markets have issues:
• Prone to resolution attacks
• Major events only or US-politics focused
• Can't create your own markets
• and honestly, boring.
So what if prediction markets felt more social, emotional, and .. fair?
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Also, I spent way too long in Polymarket’s Discord suggesting markets that got ignored. Yes they weren't about Trump or Elon...
Why can’t I just create my own market, and earn from its volume?
No one had a good answer.
So I got to work.
Time to move on from prediction markets.
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Totally normal to hit $1B volume with an invite-only prediction app after 10 days. Must be the vibes.
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Claim your X username on @xomarket and get early access to Market creation!
Conviction lands harder when people know it’s you placing it.
Today we’re adding verified usernames to XO Market ✅
Connect your X and claim your handle so your markets and trades get the recognition they deserve.
🧵
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watching that was painful @bullyb170
In the XO Mini-App campaign during @Token2049, we asked:
❓Will Belal Muhammad clinch his way to another decisive win at UFC 315?
With 141 total convictions, 38% said No, 62% said Yes!
❎Market has resolved and the result is No!
Resolution source: @UFC ufc.com/event/ufc-315
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Forget check-ins. It’s time to Peck-in.
Catalyst Badge (soulbound) is live on @xomarket → your gateway to creating conviction markets.
No one builds conviction markets, they’re authored by Catalysts.
Today, we’re rolling out Catalyst, the authorship badge that makes market creation on Alpha real, accountable, and reputation-backed.
🧵
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I've got +15 MEXC agents dming me for listing.
How can they afford to hire that many people but not invest in a CRM tool to help them not to reach out to the same person?
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Dman killed it.
I’m an early user on @xodomarket, had great trades during the Alpha phase, and now that Beta is live with real funds, today’s results were solid too.
Wishing everyone smart decisions and profitable trades!
#XOMarket #Bets @AliHabbabeh
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We are live
🎉 The XO Market Alpha v0.1 is LIVE! 🚀
The Conviction Market is open for business!
✅ Live Conviction Market
✅ Lightning-fast Sign-Up (Google, Email, Wallet)
✅ Test Tokens to Play: Risk-free
✅ Earn Conviction Points
Start here 👉 alpha.xo.market
No code? No worries → grab one from the random drops in our Discord.
❌⭕α
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Say Hello to ❌⭕ market!
a platform that lets you trade any belief that you strongly hold.
⭕ A hot take, a high Conviction.
⭕ A truth no one else sees, but you are willing to put money where your mouth is to prove it.
⭕ Or simply a challenge to your friends and community.
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This was only a couple of weeks ago, and most of what I said is already outdated!
This is how fast XO market is shipping!
I can proudly say, there is now a financial risk when using @xomarket
Thank you @POSTHUMAN_DVS for the great interview!
Interview with @AliHabbabeh from @xomarket on @CosmoverseHQ
Full video overview: piped.video/djRoWQ-PUF0
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Seeing more teams explore 'conviction markets' lately only reinforces that we’re on the right track with what we’re building at @xomarket.
The movement is growing and we’re here to lead it.
I don't see competitors, I see friends who want to grow the pie together
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There’s no better way to engage your community than a prediction market.
Got a challenge? Not sure you’ll deliver on time?
Let them hedge their disappointment...
Launch a Conviction Market on XO.
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lesgooo
Imagine your social feed if it had skin in the game 🎯
That’s CrowdFeed, markets you can scroll, tap, and actually understand.
Live on the @xomarket testnet.
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We have a great office, very Google-ish, work life balance, top notch hardware and tools and no-fart policy
Come build with us
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Prediction markets are gaining momentum and awareness, however, as this happens, people are beginning to spot the flaws in these existing systems.
XO Markets is different.
Hear how and why this is critical for future of conviction markets tomorrow.
what exactly are prediction markets?
tomorrow we will be diving into this concept with some of the most cracked teams building.
⏰ join us tomorrow, 7PM UTC
speakers:
- @AliHabbabeh from @xomarket
- @akshayraj_v0 from @fireplacegg
- @joshvancuyck from @veritas_layer
wanna learn? set a reminder and join us! nitter.app/i/spaces/1lPKqva…
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Cloudflare went down.
@xomarket made it tradable.
When @Cloudflare breaks, we build markets.
Predict how many more days it’ll go down in 2025 and profit from the chaos.
Trade your conviction → beta.xo.market
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$4M+ trading volume and counting in one week. Others grind that for months.
Don't even try to compete with User-generated markets!
BNBCHAIN Ecosystem Recap 🟡
📰 Catch up on the most recent developments, ecosystem growth signals, and builder momentum across @BNBCHAIN over the last 7 days 👇
🟡 BlackRock’s $2.5B+ BUIDL Fund lands on BNB Chain via Wormhole — expanding institutional-grade liquidity access for users and builders.
x.com/wormhole/status/198935…
🟡 $BNB goes live on @moomoosingapore — giving users another regulated gateway to buy and trade BNB.
x.com/moomoosingapore/status…
🟡 @predictdotfun sets to launch on BNB Chain, bringing prediction markets and on-chain gaming closer to the ecosystem.
x.com/predictdotfun/status/1…
🟡 #BNBHack Buenos Aires is officially live — boosting LATAM builder activity with hackathons, collaboration, and real ecosystem support.
x.com/bnbchain/status/198970…
🟡 @xomarket is now live on BNB Chain, expanding the marketplace landscape and onboarding new creator and trading experiences.
x.com/xodotmarket/status/198…
🟡 @myradotfun surpasses $1,000,000+ trading volume, powered by its AI trading terminal built in collaboration with @Aster_DEX on @BNBCHAIN.
x.com/myradotfun/status/1988…
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This space will be fun.. no shilling, pure alpha
Prediction markets are everywhere right now.
Momentary fad, or the start of a new meta?
🎙️ This Friday, we’re going live on X Spaces with @AliHabbabeh to unpack it all.
Here’s a bit about our guests 👇
@lililashka @dejixyz @marvellousdefi @BlondiePredicts
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. @madscientists_x partnership will attract so many Sheldon coopers
We’re partnering with @madscientists_x to launch a series of science-themed conviction markets 🧪
First up:
Will NASA officially verify proof of life on Mars on or before Oct 20, 2025?
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1-click Market creation is live!
You can now create your own Conviction Markets on @xomarket
Predict. Debate. Set the narrative.
The wait is over! 🎉
Open Market Creation is now LIVE
Now, everyone can create their own Conviction Markets on XO Market Alpha
👇
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Conviction markets don't care about the market.
Trying to support your portfolio in this bear market?
Support your own conviction instead at beta.xo.market.
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The XO community is built different 🔥
@Adityaalchemist just dropped a mini-game about XO Market where you find out if you actually know what makes a solid Conviction Market: clarity, resolvability, accuracy!
Think you can spot a well-written market title? 👀
Try this fun little game built by @Adityaalchemist from XO University 🎮
We got all 12 questions correct. How did you do?
🔗 deek-resolve-or-rug.netlify.…
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In light of @coinbase acquiring Echo...
We had a small round on @echodotxyz in our pre-seed that sold out in seconds.
Can’t help but feel like we kinda contributed to Echo’s success.
You’re welcome, @cobie 😏
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Reading the comments from well-known people/users/investors (not fake bots or Yappers) on this thread gives you a great lesson on what NOT to do.
I'm taking notes, but the main thing for me is: don't dismiss criticism when you f**k up as FUD
> raises $17M
> scams $2M
> wait a sec
> math doesn’t quite add up does it
> no it doesn’t
> team is locked for 12 months followed by 24 month linear vest
> rumor team dumped was literally started by a competitor and being circulated by a) evil MMs who dump $50M on retail’s face every CEX launch b) CEX bots c) retarded influencers that don’t know what they’re talking about and didn’t even buy the token
> concentrated liquidity MM strategy buys and sells within price ranges
> insane buy pressure means presently there are more sells than buys
> go ahead and sell and watch what happens
> price is stable
> liquidity is deep
> no CEXs
> everything is transparent & fully onchain
> it’s still day 1
> bookmark this tweet
> a precedent will be set here
> the future is limitless
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