its not gambling if you know you're gonna win public beta out now

getting started and setting up your own trading workflow on fireplace pro takes only 60s - create an account - create a list of tracked wallets using our prompts - set up your discover feed layout - learn the shortcuts - the entire page is keyboard driven, you can even place trades without touching the mouse - ask the fireplace agent to help you analyze a market and let it place an order for you

king shit 🐐 @TeamMessi

willo2 has just filed a lawsuit against polymarket, and this might be the first time a prediction market resolution ends up in a courtroom in may, polymarket listed a market titled "microstrategy sells bitcoin by may 31?" - this market would resolve yes if MSTR sells any BTC by 11:59pm ET on may 31, resolved on info from MSTR, on-chain data, or credible reporting - late may: strategy moves ~$30m of BTC to coinbase prime, and YES starts pumping - june 1: strategy files an 8-K - it sold 32 BTC, its first sale in over three years. the filing says the sale happened inside the window - the market spikes to ~80c, the top YES holder sizes up to ~$500k, and the average YES trade across the market ends up at 58.6c - meaning most of the volume came in after the 8-K was public - the market is under dispute and heavily debated for days - polymarket clarifies: confirmation achieved outside the market's timeframe doesn't qualify, and the market resolves no - according to the top holder's count, 1,868 YES holders lost ~$6.5m then it escalated: - he spent june posting receipts and organizing affected traders - on july 6 he filed suit against polymarket through burwick law - the same day, polymarket listed a new MSTR-sells market with completely rewritten rules - and today, the markets-team member who issued the original clarification appears to be off the team - his discord role was removed, with no official statement either way

the kelly criterion is one of the best ways to size your trades on polymarket sizing matters much more than people think, and kelly gives you the size that maximizes long-term growth of your account the formula is f* = (p - price) / (1 - price), where: - p = your estimated probability - price = market price example: market is at 50c but you think the true odds are 60% f* = (0.60 - 0.50) / (1 - 0.50) = 0.20 -> put 20% of your balance in we've now built this into the fireplace pro trade panel: type your probability and it shows your edge, your kelly fraction, and 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, full kelly sizes ready to go

polymarket sometimes clears the orderbook when clarifying a market, cancelling all your resting orders we added order replacement to fireplace - so if this happens to you, you can replace all your cancelled orders in one click

A market for if Trump will speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June almost 50xed yesterday, but resolved to no. Trump and al-Sharaa spoke on May 31 at 3pm ET - but that was 10pm in Damascus, so Syrian and Asian outlets all datelined the call "June 1." Two days after June ended, the market ripped 2¢ → 76¢ momentarily after it was proposed and argued by YES holders. YES is back at 2¢ now. Always read the rules.

there's now an AI agent living inside fireplace pro ask it anything - why a market's moving, who's holding what, whether a dispute is about to flip - and it goes and reads the orderbook, the news, the dispute thread, then sets up an order for you research a market, track a wallet, size an entry, place a sticky order that is automatically replaced for you when the book moves

MCPs are actually magic lol i have 0 technical knowledge, but on the weekend i set up an automation that scans world cup markets on @Polymarket and places a small bet daily literally took less than 5 minutes with the @fireplacegg MCP on my early access to the @dexto_ai platform its crazy how easily non-technical folks can now connect tools, ask an agent to figure out the workflow, and automate the whole process of what they want done going to be playing with these a lot more now

Someone named BreakTheBank put $191k on Portugal not to win their match against Uzbekistan, and he stood to win over $1.35M. He lost it all after Portugal's 5-0 win. He's still up $4.1M on the world cup.

Don't Trust The Fake Prophets Of Predition Markets - Exploring @fireplacegg! Read the full article on @publish0x! publish0x.com/mind-puzzle/do…

Someone named LudoBets91 put $15.89k on Cabo Verde to win against Uruguay. If he's right, he'll win $198.29k - that's a 12x win.