He literally called the bottom.

BREAKING: Apple just proved AI "reasoning" models like Claude, DeepSeek-R1, and o3-mini don't actually reason at all. They just memorize patterns really well. Here's what Apple discovered: (hint: we're not as close to AGI as the hype suggests)

Microsoft +7% after-hours (up $265B) and Meta +10% after-hours (up $175B). Total $440B market cap gains and incredible levels of we are so back-ness.

Each American will pay $3,593 in interest payments this year... on our national debt!

OPENAI IS PREPARING TO LAUNCH A SOCIAL APP FOR AI-GENERATED VIDEOS - Wired

BESSENT: POWELL DOESN'T HAVE TO LEAVE FED, HE CAN STAY ON THE BOARD BUT NOT AS CHAIR

What are the non-obvious second and third order effects of this?

Smart track trams in Zhuzhou. The construction cost is 1/3 of that of a tram. Take 300-500 people. It was first run in Zhuzhou, Hunan Province in 2018. Now it is used by several cities.😊😊😊

Wow. New $OPEN CEO @nejatian is sleeping in the office and going full hardcore mode to turn the company around. Hey @m_franceschetti - let’s get Kaz an Eight Sleep pod so he can be recharged every night?

'Nobody is going to stay and work when it's like this,' said an LG Energy Solutions subcontractor who was among the 300 South Koreans who returned to their country after being detained in a US immigration raid reut.rs/4m9ONtL

SCOOP: A Scale executive Alexandr Wang brought over to help run MSL has departed Meta after just two months. Plus, researchers in TBD Labs have complained that Scale AI's data is low quality, and are using its competitors, Surge and Mercor, to train next gen AI models.

I just want what LKY did but for San Francisco This can be the greatest most prosperous city in the world

Absolutely incredible… The SF Fed just released a study of 150 years of US tariff policies. The conclusion? Tariffs lead to *lower* inflation.

It’s absurd that one man sets interest rates for a “free” country. End the Fed.

One way to correct U.S. trade imbalance with the rest of the world: have a huge recession - @super_macro rb.gy/gwtb7p

Baier: Would a $2,000 dividend check be inflationary? Bessent: Maybe we can persuade Americans to save that.

Roses are red Violets are blue Inflation is on track To settle around 2

Your Automobile Insurance is up 73% — VOTE FOR TRUMP, I’LL CUT THAT NUMBER IN HALF!

At Costco, it feels like we are experiencing the greatest economic boom ever.

This is an incredibly unsophisticated take. You must not have an ISDA or even know what that means.

The world’s largest high-speed train station is in China. Chongqing East Railway Station.

From today’s WSJ. If you don’t understand this chart, don’t have money in stocks. If you do understand this chart, why do you have money in stocks?

Join xAI! We are hiring like crazy!!!

Other than the Mao era CCP, have there been other secular institutions that have made self-criticism such a major aspect of their identity?

84% of women in Gen Z (18-29) voted for Zohran Mamdani… The most lopsided group.

p.s. anything by @KeithBradsher on China's control over rare earths is worth reading closely. China clearly decided to show its full hand yesterday; it thinks it has the high cards nytimes.com/2025/10/09/busin…

Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book “1929” has wild details of Winston Churchill YOLO trading US stocks before The Great Depression: ▫️Traded £400,000 a week on margin at one point. ▫️Was in New York on “Black Monday” in October 28, 1929 (Dow fell 13% and another 12% next day) and portfolio got wiped. ▫️“Took years” to recover from financial losses but eventually clawed it back with publishing deals (his largest financial windfall was a book deal for his WWII memoirs).

A noteworthy moment during Saturday's meeting between Xi and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. China gifts South Korea Chinese Xiaomi flagship phones for Lee and his wife (with a Korean-made display). When Lee Jae-myung jokingly asked, “How’s the telecommunication security?” Xi Jinping replied: “You can check whether or not there’s a backdoor.” So what do we see? ➡️China gifts South Korea, smartphone powerhouse and home of Samsung, a Xiaomi — signalling symbolic confidence of China while also acknowledging interdependence in smartphone technology development 👉 great technological diplomacy and a really "smart" gift! ➡️ Despite this being the first 🇨🇳🇰🇷 meeting in 11 years, the atmosphere was relaxed enough for Lee to playfully address geopolitical sensitivities around Chinese technology. ➡️ Xi replied with quick wit, which showed a good sense of humor. Overall, I'd give this moment a "12 out of 10" 😂

🚨 THIS IS A MASTERCLASS: VP JD Vance just absolutely excoriated the whole premise behind globalism. Future of the Republican Party right here. He says the solution to globalists' hunger for cheap labor in other countries is to bring back American innovation. He is RIGHT. "Because there were two conceits that our leadership class had when it came to globalization. The first is assuming that we can separate the making of things from the design of things. The idea of globalization was that rich countries would move further up the value chain while the poor countries made the simpler things." "It turns out that the geographies that do the manufacturing get awfully good at the designing of things. There are network effects as you all well understand. The firms that design products work with firms that manufacture." "They share intellectual property. They share best practices, and they even sometimes share critical employees. Now we assume that other nations would always trail us in the value chain, but it turns out that as they got better at the low end of the value chain, they also started catching up on the higher end. We were squeezed from both ends. Now that was the first conceit of globalization." "I think the second is that cheap labor is fundamentally a crutch, and it's a crutch that inhibits innovation. I might even say that it's a drug that too many American firms got addicted to. Now if you can make a product more cheaply, it's far too easy to do that rather than to innovate." "And whether we were offshoring factories to cheap labor economies or importing cheap labor through our immigration system - cheap labor became the drug of Western economies." "And I'd say that if you look in nearly every country from Canada to the UK that imported large amounts of cheap labor, you've seen productivity stagnate. And I don't think that that's not a total happenstance. I think that the connection is very direct." "Now one of the debates you hear on the minimum wage, for instance, is that increases in the minimum wage force firms to automate. So a higher wage at McDonald's means more kiosks. And whatever your views on the wisdom of the minimum wage, I'm not gonna comment on that here. Companies innovating in the absence of cheap labor is a good thing." "I think most of you are not worried about getting cheaper and cheaper labor. You're worried about innovating, about building new things, about the old formulation of technology is doing more with less. You guys are all trying to do more with less every single day." "And so I I'd ask my friends, both on the the tech optimist side and on the populist side, not to see the failure of the logic of globalization as a failure of innovation. Indeed, I'd say that globalization's hunger for cheap labor is is a problem precisely because it's been bad for innovation." "Both our working people, our populace, and our innovators gathered here today have the same enemy, and the solution, I believe, is American innovation."

Tim Cook: It is engraved for President Trump. It is a unique unit of one. And the base comes from Utah, and is 24 karat gold.

From the @FT: “US companies’ earnings are growing at the fastest pace in four years… Median earnings growth year-on-year across the Russell 3000 index — a benchmark for the entire US stock market — hit 11 per cent in the third quarter, up from 6 per cent in the previous three months, according to Morgan Stanley. That is the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2021.” #StockMarket #stocks

A day at Xiaomi EV factory. Let the SU7 Ultra park itself while I head to a meeting.

I'm about to turn 45. If you want to look 10 years younger than your age, read this:

This utter bullshit by the CTO of Palantir, Shyam Sankar, needs to be called out. The US never offered China “peaceful coexistence.” The US wanted China subordinated. They wanted China’s cheap labour inserted into their supply chains and its cheap goods to flow into the US market. The US actually got this extremely lucrative deal for decades, draining value from the Chinese economy. Sankar says that “No country did more for Chinese prosperity than America.” In reality, it’s closer to the opposite. The electronics giant Apple is the perfect case in point. Apple has made a fortune in China: $227 billion in operating profit over the past 10 years, which accounts for over a quarter of its total operating profit during this period. US consumers have also benefited hugely from China’s integration into the global economy: the price of manufactured goods imported into the US has declined massively relative to US consumer prices in non-traded sectors between the 1980s and 2010s — in some instances by more than 40%. The only “crime” China has committed is developing its economy, cleverly using international trade and foreign investment to their benefit. And this is exactly what Palantir’s CTO, Shyam Sankar — and so many others in the US ruling class — has an issue with. The US government is now throwing everything but the kitchen sink at China in an attempt to halt China's economic development. Why? Because China is doing exactly the one thing the US has never been willing to accept: sovereign, independent development that isn’t subservient to US interests. In some ways, it’s good that we’re exposed to views like Sankar’s — however much he distorts reality — because the mask is finally off. It’s now clear as day that Sankar and his allies in the US ruling class will only accept a global economic order controlled and dominated by the US.

how tall are you?

Fed economists do better policy relevant research on the economy, better than just about any central bank around the world as good as any top university depts and certainly Wall Street economists, and have the ability and patience to research more in-depth and complex questions.

hot take: asia > usa i kid you not: • everything is 10x more affordable (if you make US salary) • people are so much nicer. • the air quality is great. • food is immaculate. i can really see myself living here for good. the question is, which country tho? 🤔

We gonna find out that DeepSeek/Qwen are trained on degens, while ChatGPT is trained on the academic literature of rational finance and the traditions of value investing.