East Asia IR, China's rise, grand strategy, apology-ology. @dartmouth @ChathamHouse @HarvardUSJapan Editor of blueblaze.substack.com
New Hampshire, USA
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China is now a top-10 global innovator and spends over $500bn a year on R&D.
So much for “autocracies can’t innovate.”
How did we get this so wrong? Autocracy 2.0.
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Shocked and saddened at the sudden loss of our wonderful friend and colleague, Prof. Toshi Nakayama. A brilliant mind in US-Japan relations. RIP. 🇯🇵🇺🇸
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My @ForeignAffairs essay on profound changes in Japan's security policy. Tokyo breaks the 1 percent ceiling on defense spending, and moves toward a counterstrike capability. This is huge. foreignaffairs.com/japan/jap…
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In a more dangerous Asia, Japan’s new nat’l security strategy outlines stunning changes. The doubling of defense spending breaks a long-standing norm (the 1% of GDP ceiling) that held for decades. Japan will leap from world’s ninth-largest defense spender…to third. 1/x
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Seeing the humanity in a country often spoken of in the abstract or in caricature? Good.
Forgetting that Kim is part of a regime that starves, tortures, and terrifies its people? Not good. cnn.com/2018/02/10/asia/kim-…
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Cue the inevitable clickbait (and Chinese statements) about Japan’s “remilitarization.” Nope. These changes are a surprisingly delayed effort to bolster J’s security in responses to its much more dangerous region. 3/x
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Hey IR twitter: my students are really enjoying zooming into talks all over the country. If your institution/center has an IR-related talk series open to the public, can you send me a link to your schedule so I can pass it on to some VERY eager Dartmouth students?
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Jse leaders have debated the legality of counterstrike (striking enemy territory if J absorbs missive attacks) since the 1950’s. It was considered power projection and therefore against J’s doctrine of “defensive defense.” Over the years the norm held…until now. 2/x
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PSA for #ISA2021:
Attention panelists: remember that no one, in the history of time, has EVER heard a talk and thought: "That was fantastic. I wish it was longer."
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"The balance of power in Asia is shifting toward China. This is not a far-off threat that Japan can avoid. This is Japan’s fight." My oped in today's @nytopinion.
nytimes.com/2023/05/18/opini…
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Played “Clue” with the family tonight, and my kids insisted on referring to me as “Associate Professor Plum.” #toughroom
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Lots of scholars, myself included, refute the common claim that Afghanistan has shattered US credibility in eyes of allies & adversaries. Good reasons for skepticism (see earlier 🧵) 1/n
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“Abe was the rare Japanese leader who not only observed this changing world but also developed a clear vision for his country's role in it and worked alongside Japan's partners to see it through” --my essay in @ForeignAffairs
foreignaffairs.com/articles/…
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Tokyo and Seoul, which in response to shared threats have recently shown the promise of cooperation, manage to avoid even a momentary sense of unity and purpose m.koreaherald.com/amp/view.p… 4/x
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Fall issue is live! In my @IntSecHarvard article I argue that China's rise has shifted the international system back to bipolarity. (ungated article here): direct.mit.edu/isec/article/…
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We overuse the phrases “sea change,” “crossroads,” and “game-changing.” Too bad. As I argue in @ForeignAffairs, Japan’s recent moves are all of the above. foreignaffairs.com/japan/jap…
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Deterrence worked vs Mao, Stalin, Saddam, Kim Il Sung, & Kim Jong Il. Trump admin needs to explain why they think KJU uniquely undeterrable
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one new phenomenon of this new world of online seminars: MY MOM WANTS TO GO TO MY TALKS. When I lamented this to the chair, @AdamPLiff, he replied, "my mom was there too."
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For great context and perspective on these historic changes in Japan’s security #FF @tetsuo_kotani @takakohikotani @observingjapan @ZackCooper @dicksamuelsMIT @alessionaval @kenj0126 @SheilaSmithCFR @motokorich 5/x
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Love seeing the debate between @ElbridgeColby and @observingjapan on changes in Japanese security policy. I will take advantage of having feet in two worlds - 🇯🇵security and IR/security studies – to offer some perspective. 🧵
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The political scientist in me would like the summit to produce meaningful threat reduction, but the writer in me is just happy that it brought us the phrase “goat rodeo” (thanks @ArmsControlWonk)
The cool dictional thing about the Trump administration is that you can use words like ‘shambolic’ and ‘shenanigans.’ So there’s one upside for us all
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Me: I think your book is out.
Him: Mmmwha?
Me: Your book. It’s out. People on Twitter are posting about getting copies.
Him: Mmmm.
Me: Do you have a copy?
Him: Nah. Maybe they got sent to the office.
Me: 🤦♀️
CONGRATS, Daryl and Keir!🍾🥂🎉
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Thinking today a lot about Bob Jervis – and about Keren, Stacie, Jack, Leslie, and all those who loved him so much.
As a field, let’s continue to learn from Bob: not just from his powerful intellectual legacy, but from his unparalleled curiosity, generosity, and civility.
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“For the liberal international order to survive, it should become conservative.” My @ForeignAffairs essay with @dartmouth colleague William C. Wohlforth. na01.safelinks.protection.ou…
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Conferencing in Tokyo. Ladies and gentlemen, I am pleased to say that the US-Japan alliance is....surreptitiously watching the Nats game on their phones.
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Look what arrived! The US grand strategy debate is much elevated by this great contribution. Congrats @MiraRappHooper and @RebeccaLissner !
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What's to blame for the current downturn in Japan-ROK relations? It's not the past; it's the politics of the present.
washingtonpost.com/politics/…
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So saddened by the news about former PM Abe. My heart goes out to our Japanese friends in their grief and shock.
Abe-san was a vital partner and visionary in the US-Japan alliance. It's hard to convey the magnitude of his contribution - of his ideas and leadership. RIP.
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So excited to see this in the @dartmouth government dept display: congrats to my brilliant colleague @ke_powers on her new @PrincetonUPress book! 🙌🏻🎉
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As always, impressed by @jessicacweiss’s smart voice countering the “China wants to take over the world” narrative that has seized much of Washington. nytimes.com/2023/05/04/opini…
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As Japan makes historic changes in security policy, PM Kishida argues "Ukraine today may be Asia tomorrow" washingtonpost.com/opinions/… via @joshrogin
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Great review by @hofrench of an important and impressive book on China's economic rise, by @fwanguci: China's Age of Abundance foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/22…
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"each norm that falls is one fewer safeguard against executive overreach" Interview with @BrendanNyhan theatlantic.com/politics/arc…
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My latest article, "Narratives and International Reconciliation," in @Journal_of_GSS. "Observers have exaggerated the constraining power of narratives and underestimated the potential for cooperation between fmr enemies."
academic.oup.com/jogss/advan…
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congrats to Keir Lieber and @Dartmouth's Daryl Press: today receiving the best article award in int'l security for their @Journal_IS article, "The New Era of Counterforce." Pictured here on hardship duty at PACOM.
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Well, folks, ready all of your tweets and opeds about America’s credibility, because we have got ourselves a redline.
Extremely significant policy shift:
“As the South China Sea is part of the Pacific, any armed attack on Philippine forces, aircraft or public vessels in the South China Sea will trigger mutual defense obligations under Article 4 of our mutual defense treaty.” -Pompeo (in Manila)
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My @dartmouth colleague @WCWohlforth is a great scholar and a great human being—so I’m thrilled he’s being honored at the #ISA2024 meeting. Conference-goers, join this terrific group in celebrating Bill today at 4pm.
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In our @ForeignAffairs article, Daryl Press and I explain why S. Korea is increasingly serious about going nuclear. Drawing on the NATO experience, we describe Seoul's options for bolstering deterrence vis-à-vis North Korea. foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
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Call for applications from @dartmouth's wonderful postdoctoral program in international security/US foreign policy. Join us in Hanover!
dickey.dartmouth.edu/faculty…
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By failing to mobilize, Japan may be committing a historic blunder by choosing to accept living in China's Asia. foreignaffairs.com/articles/…
Colby's view is that for Japan, China's Asia would be a cruel place. He may be proven right.
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This fall in US credibility I’m talking about has nothing to do with recent events in Afghanistan. In fact, a decision to withdraw should *improve* US credibility in Asia and Europe in the future if it frees up US military resources for those theaters.
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News from Pyongyang. Next move: 40' gold statues. washingtonpost.com/news/post…
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What an exciting day! So what time do the US, UK, France, and Netherlands issue their apologies for imperialism in Asia?
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Note: both the causes of credibility & the policy prescriptions for the 2 theories are totally different. The reputation theory says double down in Afghanistan. Everywhere matters. The credibility of power arg says maintain a powerful deterrent in areas of vital natl interest.
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As the US debates its Taiwan policy, it's essential to discuss the dramatic shift in the mil balance. It's not 1990 anymore. We need to ask what CAN the US still do on Taiwan's behalf, and what might it lose/risk if it does. nytimes.com/2021/04/08/us/po…
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If you're wondering, 'is there an online IR/foreign policy seminar I can attend today?'...the answer is almost certainly yes.
Thanks to the many folks who sent me links to their talk series: see the list compiled here, FYI. sites.dartmouth.edu/jlind/on…
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Latest on China’s 17+1 diplomacy. For background see essay by Justyna Szczudlik @Shilinabolan in @NBRnews report, nbr.org/publication/china-le… politico.eu/article/china-xi…
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Learning a ton about technology and supply chains, getting to know the wonderful Brookings crew, and meeting some rather interesting folks around town
Delighted to welcome Director @ryanl_hass back to Taiwan. I’m confident that under the guidance of Director Hass & his delegation – all leading scholars – the @BrookingsInst will further enhance its expertise on Taiwan & help to deepen the #Taiwan-#US friendship.
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It’s a tough issue, to be sure. On the one hand, TikTok shares user data with an AI superpower rival. And on the other hand, it wrecks kids’ brains.
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Debates about the "LIO" don't talk enough abt fact that large swaths of the world resent and mistrust the order. Esp relevant given China's bid for greater leadership. So I'm excited to read this by @AyseZarakol and @GeorgeLawsonIR, via @IAJournal_CH academic.oup.com/ia/article/…
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Terrific @FT article on the changing NK nuclear threat. S.P. Choi: “The US still seems to see the problem as primarily an issue of ally psychology, rather than as a transformed security challenge.”🎯
ft.com/content/3c350cc2-0711…
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#ISA2021 has been good: I'm glad to see colleagues even in their little boxes. But I miss you folks: walking around the city in your nametags; wandering around lost in vast hotels; fuming in the long coffee line; waving to me across the lobby throng. Good times. Next year!
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can confirm that every member of our IR group is raising a glass in Jay's honor, and is SO excited for him to join us! Welcome to you and your family!
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Creating soft power with brass knuckles: CCP kidnaps relatives, issues death threats to silence overseas Chinese journalists and shape coverage
ft.com/content/f5d00a86-3296…
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new issue of @ForeignAffairs is live, with quite the @dartmouth roundup: Lind, Press, Brooks & Wohlforth, and former @DartmouthDickey fellows Sullivan and Shifrinson🌲💚 Check it out!
foreignaffairs.com/issues/20…
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I’m always writing, “we need a debate” and through his arguments about prioritization, Bridge has really generated one. The key Q he’s asking is about the wisdom and feasibility of the US continuing to follow the nat sec policy we pursued under unipolarity in a bipolar era 1/4
I’m glad to hear my comments are breaking through in South Korea.
Our alliance is vital. But it faces grave challenges that make our comfortable old model unworkable.
We need to adapt it based on clear-eyed realism. 1/ washingtontimes.com/news/202…
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Bottom line: it's Japan's choice. And despite recently making what are indeed historic policy changes, Jpn has so far chosen not to mobilize against Chinese power. A state spending <2% is not balancing. It’s Italy.
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now off to a fantastic panel on great power competition, feat. @fravel @kaciemiura @shifrinson @ytalexlin @audryewong @dmedelstein. I'm excited to present my paper "Autocrats at the Cutting Edge: Chinese Innovation and the Future Balance of Power." Join us 9:30am #ISA2021
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BUT: in my writing these days I argue that the US has a *growing credibility problem.* Namely, the credibility of American promises is eroding in E. Asia: China’s buildup is greatly reducing the US ability to flow forces into the region on behalf of allies in the event of war
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it's a big week in the US-Japan alliance, so a welcome time for this smart piece by Jeffrey Hornung foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
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fake dissertations and journals; corrupt peer review process; grants awarded on basis of political loyalty; increasingly silenced academics; growing isolation from global sci & tech community...
= how to stifle innovation
Why China Is Likely to Lose Technology Cold War With U.S. - Bloomberg buff.ly/2Rd5sQj
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Fixed your headline:
"A threatened country continues to devote a stunningly low level of effort to defense"
Japan's government is requesting a fifth military budget increase to expand missile defenses nyti.ms/2c7YgjA
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So excited to be part of a great conversation about US foreign policy encouraged by @ForeignAffairs. See my article with Daryl Press, “Reality Check: American Power in an Age of Constraints” foreignaffairs.com/articles/…
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Me, today: recklessly firing off abstracts for unwritten papers for ISA 2021.
Me, in February 2021:
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"The hype about China’s rise has been based largely on gross indicators that ignore costs." Important @Journal_IS article by M. Beckley has big implications for power transition debate mitpressjournals.org/doi/ful… cc @Max_Fisher @annafifield @JanePerlez
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Rehearsal. Looking forward to tomorrow's conversation with fmr Treasury Sec. Henry Paulson about US relations with a rising China. Join me at this @dartmouthalumni event! next.dartmouth.edu/paulson
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I always enjoy Dreznerian rhetorical hand grenades...
It me, in @reason, lobbing a rhetorical grenade into the hardening consensus about a hawkish approach toward China. reason.com/2020/04/25/there-…
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A new year, a new roster of amazing IR-related lectures to attend online. Check out a list of events here, sites.dartmouth.edu/jlind/on…
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1st Zoom class! I messed up breakout rooms, had to manually assign; then accidentally left not only a room but the whole meeting while somehow making a student the host. Tried to get everyone back but couldn’t bc I was no longer the host. 🤦♀️#zoomer
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Deterrence is risky but alt options are worse. A US strike on NK could lead to war, humanitarian catastrophe, & shattering of US alliances.
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Really looking forward to this discussion of US-Japan relations, in which I’ll be moderating this all-star group. Join us!
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At #ISA, enjoyed a roundtable on @IainDHenry’s fantastic book, with @stephenWalt @PatPorter76 @JiYoung_AUKorea Izumikawa 先生. All marveled at its careful scholarship and contribution to both the alliance literature and to policy debates. Congrats, Iain!
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What’s responsible for the downward spiral in Japan-ROK relations? Look not to the past, but to the politics of the present. My @monkeycageblog article. washingtonpost.com/politics/…
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“As long as both great powers provide security goods without demanding an exclusive arrangement, third countries can reap the benefits.” Great @ForeignAffairs essay by @SheenaGreitens and @IBKardon foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
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This claim relies on the theory (which has lots of empirical support…esp see Daryl Press)…that credibility in eyes of adversaries and allies hinges on a country’s power and interests engaged —not from reputation in distant theaters/issues.
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Smart piece by @EmmaMAshford, “The latest poorly defined buzzword in Washington is leading pundits and policymakers down a dangerous path.” foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/01…
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Great and sobering piece by @KoriSchake on what seems like a gathering storm theatlantic.com/internationa…
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おはようございます and welcome to the Japan-watchers Super Bowl. For topnotch color commentary about today’s summit #FF @SheilaSmithCFR @amycatalinac @observingjapan @solis_msolis @emmachanlettave @DanielPAldrich @ProfVekasi @motokorich @Dimi @SatoshiJournal @jljzen @kenmoriyasu
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Japan and useless jobs, by @Noahpinion bloombergview.com/articles/2… But who will push the elevator button for me??!
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slow to read this piece by @thomaswright08 but, as always, sure glad I did. theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…
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just back from Seoul, where I was struck by how far South Korea's debate about acquiring nuclear weapons has advanced. On this topic don't miss this superb conversation between @dartmouth's Daryl Press and @BrookingsInst Amb. Bob Einhorn, via VOA voakorea.com/a/6888092.html
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my new article, which takes on the common claim that among former enemies, "history stands in the way" of reconciliation. Key implications for relations between Japan, China, ROK.
Next, @profLind looks at narratives and international reconciliation. Is the constraining power of narrative exaggerated? 2). doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogz072
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Apologies are such an unhelpful vehicle for reconciliation. There is no magic phrase or word that Tokyo could use to put this to rest. They have been at this since the 1970s. 1/
On history, they can never agree: South Korea says Japan needs to apologize again to WWII comfort women. Shinzo Abe says that's "unacceptable." nyti.ms/2FwC4yi
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Two key developments in chip wars this week (both bad news for the US effort).
1) SMIC’s successful manufacture of 7nm chip for new Huawei phone shows adaptability of Chinese firms to export controls. on.ft.com/3ExlSwc
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Looking forward to talking with an all-star cast @KoriSchake @londonvinjamuri @rolandparis @dhnexon @CooleyOnEurasia + others on our #ISA2021 roundtable about world order in the 21st century! Tuesday 6:30pm EST. Join us!
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