I always think about the Djokovic quote about playing tennis at an elite level:
“I just like hitting the ball”
A lot of people don’t really like hitting the ball. They like the endorsements, the clubhouses, the tournaments, the status, and the bright lights
They don’t like sitting in 90 degree weather and hitting tennis ball after tennis ball for hours on end. It’s pretty true everywhere, not just venture
It’s clear why (some) VCs are facing a generational crisis..
I meet a lot of VCs who are jaded today since they spent the last decade following a certain playbook of investing in software that had a certain recipe (execution, distribution, solving a problem, large gross margin) and counting on their taste in finding the best founders.
With the advent of AI and hard tech, they are not updating their priors on how to invest since a decent majority of them are non-technical and are often gambling by investing in companies that have a “similar” playbook or end up chasing only the hot ones. With hard tech, the mental model of what it takes and the margin profiles are so different that it doesn’t neatly fit in their “sweet spot”.
While there’s a lot of lessons to learn from the cloud and mobile era, this one feels truly different since your competition is both startups and large companies and moat can often seem shallower. Also, models are getting faster at a frightening rate where often your application can be toast based on model improvements alone.
The real killer is folks are not even curious to learn about this - even if you are non technical, you can take time to understand and learn what’s happening. There is SO much literature out there that makes this easy to understand. I just literally feed each line to a model to understand core concepts.
I’ll end here by saying that now more than ever - be curious and have a prepared mind. With VC, you have the benefit of long feedback cycles to hide sometimes but it’s going to get come to roost. Eventually.