This election will be decided by women, and it wonโt be anywhere as close as people think.
Kamala Harris is on her way to a decisive victory on November 5, if not an outright landslide.
The writing has been on the wall for the GOP since the corrupt Republican Supreme Court stripped women of their individual freedoms and bodily autonomy with that fateful Dobbs decision.
Democrats have over-performed in every single election since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. The male-dominated punditry continually try to overlook and dismiss this dynamic. Many of us men simply donโt understand or appreciate how critical this issue is for women.
For millions of women across America, particularly those living in Republican-controlled states, itโs literally a matter of life or death for them. This is not something they can simply โget overโ or โmove onโ from.
We are seeing a real shift happening within the electorate. Kamala Harris has a commanding lead with women in every reputable poll out there, and she is benefiting from the largest gender gap we have ever seen in any election.
In the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris enjoys a 14-point advantage with women while Trump only has a 6 point margin with men. This sharp gender gap is reflected in several other polls.
If these polls materialize in the election, it would spell an unmitigated disaster for Donald Trump and provide the groundwork for a stunning blue wave.
We already know that women are registered to vote at a much higher rate than men. According to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP), in recent years, the number of women registered to vote in the U.S. has typically been about 10 million more than the number of men registered to vote. Women have registered and voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, with the turnout gap between women and men growing slightly larger with each successive presidential election.
In this political war of the genders, youโd much rather have women on your side.
More troubling for Donald Trump is Harrisโs inroads with certain demographics where Republicans have historically been competitive:
Among white college-educated women, Harris has a whopping 23-point lead in that same ABC News/Ipsos poll. Interestingly, sheโs also leading with white college-educated men by 4 points in that poll. A total disaster for Trump anyway you cut it.
This over-performance with women has made Harris very competitive in suburban areas all across America and lifted the fortunes of Democrats in some of most competitive races in the country.
Once a reliable demographic for the GOP, the suburbs have steadily shifted to Democrats during the Trump era; that phenomenon is even more pronounced with Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket today.
We see this manifested in a recent CNN poll where suburban voters back Harris over Trump 52% vs 44%, with suburban women backing Harris by an astonishing 55% vs 41%.
There is also an NPR/PBS/Marist poll out there showing Harris with a massive 31-point lead with suburban women โ beating Trump 65% to 34%.
Kamalaโs formidable lead with women is so pronounced that the phenomenon has extended to Republican women who are giving her record crossover support.
We have seen endorsements from prominent Republican women including Liz Cheney and Barbara Bush (George W. Bushโs daughter). To be clear, Trumpโs fascist threat to our Democracy may be the primary reason these prominent GOP women back Harris, but it still underscores the breadth of Kamalaโs appeal in a polarized political environment.
Early voting numbers so far already reflect an electorate dominated by women:
According to statistics provided by
@ThirdWayKessler, almost 12 million people have voted in the 7 swing states so far, with around 1.3 million more women voting than men. The gender gap is roughly 55% to 45% in favor of women.
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