Public opinion researcher, gathering data on perceptions of my state, my country, and my planet.
Des Moines, IA
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- Followers 65,080
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Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how desmoinesregister.com/story/… via @DMRegister
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Here it is.
Elizabeth Warren leads Register’s Iowa Poll for the first time, besting Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders
desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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A few years ago, I made a pilgrimage to Dixville Notch. A spiritual experience.
The only fitting result from Dixville Notch's midnight votes: A tie. Harris 3, Trump 3. cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/…
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Yesterday brought some good news.
VICTORY! Federal district court dismisses class-action suit against pollster J. Ann Selzer
A federal district court today dismissed with prejudice a lawsuit against renowned Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, holding that the First Amendment bars the claims against her related to her October 2024 general election poll. As the court explained, “there is no free pass around the First Amendment.”
The lawsuit, brought by a subscriber to The Des Moines Register and styled as a class action, stemmed from a poll Selzer published before the 2024 presidential election that predicted Vice President Kamala Harris leading by three points in Iowa. The suit asserted claims, including under Iowa’s Consumer Fraud Act, alleging that Selzer’s poll, which missed the final result by a wide margin, constituted “fake news” and “fraud.”
Selzer, represented pro bono by FIRE, pushed back. FIRE explained that commentary about a political election is core protected speech. “Fake news” is a political buzzword, not a legal cause of action. And “fraud” is a defined legal concept: intentionally lying to convince someone to part with something of value.
The court explained, “polls are a mere snapshot of a dynamic and changing electorate” and “the results of an opinion poll are not an actionable false representation merely because the anticipated results differ from what eventually occurred.” As the Supreme Court has said, a party cannot evade First Amendment scrutiny “simply labeling an action one for fraud.”
The court held the plaintiff had “no factual allegations” to support his fraud claim, instead “invok[ing] mere buzzwords and speculation” to support his claims. And not only did the court find the First Amendment barred the claims, it similarly held each claim defective under Iowa law even without the First Amendment’s protection.
Selzer is pleased with the result:
“I am pleased to see this lawsuit has been dismissed. The First Amendment’s protection for free speech and a free press held strong. I know that I did nothing wrong and I am glad the court also concluded that there was never a valid legal claim.”
FIRE’s Chief Counsel Bob Corn-Revere, who led Selzer’s defense, responded to the ruling:
“This decision shows where petty politics ends and the rule of law begins. The court’s strongly worded opinion confirms that a legal claim cannot be concocted with political slogans and partisan hyperbole, and that there is no hiding from the First Amendment. This is a good day for freedom of speech.”
This lawsuit was a copycat of a still-pending suit filed by President Donald Trump against Selzer in December 2024 in which FIRE also represents her. FIRE Supervising Senior Attorney Conor Fitzpatrick remarked, "President Trump's suit makes the same frivolous arguments against the same defendants. We are confident it will meet the same fate."
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Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts desmoinesregister.com/story/… via @DMRegister
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I'm attaching documents The Des Moines Register has made public. Oh, and mentions of "retirement" are inaccurate. It's been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues.
My analysis document. documentcloud.org/documents/…
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I'm booked for tomorrow morning on CNN's Reliable Sources, unless something more important needs discussion.
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New Iowa Poll coming soon!
desmoinesregister-ia.newsmem…
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Forgive me, but after a morning of calls, this seems warranted. To those tempted to try to persuade anyone connected to the Iowa Poll to release another poll, please know: 1) The first rule of the Iowa Poll schedule is we do not talk about the Iowa Poll schedule, and
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One of the most thorough interviews I've done this cycle. With a few laughs thown in.
One of the most accurate and widely respected pollsters, Ann Selzer (@jaselzer), joins me to break down her methodology and latest Iowa results: applepodcasts.com/preet
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Oh, the internal conversations!
I know everyone knows this but @jaselzer & @Selzer_Co_MY are the best. Pollsters, yes, but good people also. I can only imagine their internal conversations when their last poll results were so divergent from all other polling. They were right, of course, and not just in IA...
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In case you were wondering, in the June Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll, we had exactly one respondent for whom Hickenlooper was the first choice. For that one person, Pete Buttigieg was the second choice.
Fun fact of the day.
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Crosstabs from final 2024 pre-election Iowa Poll.
documentcloud.org/documents/…
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I'm honored.
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Comparison of weighted v. unweighted data in final 2024 pre-election poll.
documentcloud.org/documents/…
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Here it is!
NEW @DMRegister Iowa Poll results
Theresa Greenfield: 46%
Sen. Joni Ernst: 43%
#IASen desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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I can now answer your question. Saturday night.
@jaselzer when can we expect the next @DMRegister poll of the Caucus?
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Topline from final 2024 pre-election Iowa Poll.
documentcloud.org/documents/…
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Been there
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Someone I likely do not know in my feed posted a picture of the completed Mini puzzle today. I tried not to look at it, as I am on a team that competes on the puzzle daily. I had to report it and will get 25% added to my time. People! Think before you post.😀
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From Grinnell College National Poll:
As you think about the next 12 months, do you expect the overall strength of the U.S. economy to be better or worse as compared to the way you see it now?
# GrinnellPoll grinnell.edu/poll
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New polls(not mine) play out what I saw in the tea leaves of the June Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll: Joe Biden is vincible.
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I wish there were a rule that when a news outlet announces a vote has been taken, they would report the numbers. "House votes to repeal 2002 Iraq war powers." Not that hard to add the numbers. Right there between "votes" and "to."
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Today, I hit the 14K mark for followers on this site. I note @SteveRattner hit the 100,000 mark today. Maybe I need more charts.
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A very thorough, fun interview.
. @JoeBiden's win was much closer than polls predicted, but not every pollster emerged from Election Day with a black eye. Iowa's @jaselzer was right on the money. @WSJ talks with Iowa's queen of polling outliers about how she got it right. wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal
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New Iowa Poll to reveal likely Republican caucusgoers' picks among 14 presidential hopefuls desmoinesregister.com/story/… via @DMRegister
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Elizabeth Warren surges and Joe Biden fades in close Iowa race, new poll shows cnn.com/2019/09/21/politics/…
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Recalling the 1984 fire that destroyed something like half the existing medieval glass known in the world. York Minster has been rebuilt, never the same.
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From years of viewing experience, I have to say @SHO_TheCircus is never better than when it’s snowing. In Iowa, or elsewhere.
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Earlier this week, I gave an hour-long interview to Preet Bharara. He asks unusual questions, and so it was a pleasure to spend the time. The podcast launched this morning. It's long, just fair warning. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Let's look at the historical data. In our polling ahead of the 2016 caucuses, 19% in August of 2015 and 25% in October of 2015 said it would be their first caucus. As campaigns do their work, with time, they recruit more and more first-time caucusgoers.
Only expecting 19% of caucus attendees to be first timers? CNN entrance polls showed 44% were first timers in '16 and youth vote turnout was up in '18.
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Here's the main story. More on the Register's site. desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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Get ready!
🚨New Iowa Poll alert! We’ve got news on the Iowa Senate race, the presidential race, and Iowans’ feelings about the coronavirus and racial unrest desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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Ha!
As we wait for the #DemDebate to begin, I spoke with @jaselzer, the polling queen of Iowa (“I prefer goddess,” she joked.)
She warned about the unpredictability of caucuses. “I would not jump to declare we know how this is going to turn out”
More in Wake Up To Politics tomorrow
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Highlights from Grinnell College National Poll:
Confidence 2022 general election votes will be counted as voters intended: 53% very/somewhat confident, 44% not too/not at all confident
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Dear Twitter. You've created technology to link several tweets together. Great. Not great is posting the last tweet of the series first. While the tweets may land as an uninterrupted series, better would be to list the tweets so a reader can scroll down and read them in order.
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One of the key findings is the almost universal appeal of term limits for members of Congress.
The latest #GrinnellPoll data: strong bipartisan majorities favor term limits for Congress and the Supreme Court. grinnell.edu/news/grinnell-c…
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Just to put it out there, calling our shop to tell us to "release the polls" is an odd strategy. It presumes a) we forgot we had polls we had on hand and just needed to be reminded to release them, or
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A fun conversation with @DavidYepsen this afternoon to air on PBS Iowa tonight, tomorrow, and the next day on Iowa Press.
Taping @IowaPress now with @jaselzer @DavidYepsen,
Selzer says: “In September, I said if I was Joni Ernst I would attach myself to @ChuckGrassley in this state.”
Selzer openly wonders if Democrats peaked too early in Iowa with absentees and R energy was stronger on home stretch
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By request, here is the link to the freshly squeezed FiveThirtyEight podcast I recorded yesterday with my fellow wonk, Galen Druke. player.fm/series/fivethirtye…
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@jlrye @mmckinnon @jheil @SHO_TheCircus FANTASTIC episode-opens secret door to the heart of 2016 campaign in all its glory.
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Final Poll coming Saturday evening. Stay tuned. tinyurl.com/ze69wqc
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Let the speculation begin!
The Iowa Poll is back with its first 2024 question.
The Iowa Poll, the 'gold standard' of political surveys, is back with new tracking on Gov. Kim Reynolds, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and the economy.
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Always fun working with the political teams at The Register and CNN!
I know what you are doing Saturday night.
NEW IOWA POLL TO BE RELEASED ⏰
desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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Just started watching the new Ken Burns-produced documentary, College behind Bars. I’m only 14 minutes in, and I already highly recommend this. If you decide to watch it, and you get to the 14 minute mark, you’ll know why I decided to tweet this.
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This version gives more details.
desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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New poll shows Trump's tough path to reelection | TheHill thehill.com/homenews/campaig…
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The time might finally have come for me to watch Fight Club.
For the people calling/email the @DMRegister about polls:
The first rule of planning the Iowa Poll is we don't talk about the Iowa Poll.
The second rule is: Read the first rule.
Guess what the third rule is?
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Queen of diamonds!
And snaps to @RachelSB who made this face more times than I can count in the last week as we planned a poll release and coverage of yet another super chaotic week in Iowa politics. She’s a queen.
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If you've never listened to the Christmas Carol read by the very best, tune in to Iowa Public Radio.
Read by Doug Brown, from 9 a.m. to noon on IPR's AM News and FM News/Studio One stations and again from 9 p.m. to midnight on IPR News stations. Iowapublicradio.org
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Sad news. I was fortunate he succumbed to my campaign to meet him many years ago. I had worked on a research project to test if the little local NY talk show had legs for syndication. Yes. We spent 45 minutes in his office chatting happily away. I'm an unabashed fan.
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Apparently, DirecTV and Disney are at odds, which means subscribers will not be able to watch next week's debate on ABC. Hulu, appears to be an option. Any other ideas?
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It would be perfectly okay to fast forward past my bit to listen to ISU economist Dave Swenson and Mayor Quentin Hart of Waterloo for fresh insight into the Iowa economy, and into the feel of politics in the not-so-white parts of Iowa.
The view from Iowa: @jaselzer, whose poll is considered the “gold standard,” walks us through her latest data set and what to make of this incredibly close race.
Listen to the latest Politics with Amy Walter:
wnyc.news/xp4cq
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We do not discuss our polling schedule. Imagine my kindest, most gracious voice as I say that.
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Something of an explainer for the new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll. desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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Highlights from Grinnell College National Poll:
President Joe Biden Favorable/Unfavorable numbers: 49-43%, improved from August 2020 43-48%.
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We've learned to prepare for such occasions.
Because we ask second choices in our polling (and our pollsters @jaselzer and @Selzer_Co_MY are AMAZING), here's how our poll would look if Booker's supporters were reallocated:
20% Sanders
18% Warren (that's +1)
17% Buttigieg (+1)
15% Biden
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When your go-to opening word is the Wordle of the day, it's going to be a good day!
Wordle 695 1/6
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
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Telling tidbits from Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll: Only 20% have a first choice candidate and say they are unlikely to be persuaded to support someone else.
desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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Lisa Bluder announces retirement as coach of the Iowa Hawkeye women. A lot of people are shedding tears, and not just those who played for her.
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Even more depth.
Want to dig into the Iowa Poll details of all the Democratic candidates polled? We've got a guide for you. desmoinesregister.com/story/… via @robinlopsahl, @katie_akin
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Latest from Iowa Poll, courtesy of Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom: desmoinesregister.com/iowa-c…
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I love debates. I love charts. Ross Perot breathed life into the conversation, making it much more of a spectator-friendly event. RIP.
PS: Anyone who knows me will know I objected to his pie charts not starting at 12.00 and reading in a clockwise direction.
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Iowa Poll: A majority of Iowans want U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley to decide not to run in 2022; 28% hope he will desmoinesregister.com/story/… via @DMRegister
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Sad to learn this. Probably my favorite episode of Laverne and Shirley featured Lenny and the Squiqtones. Performing in a talent show, Squiggy vamped: "This is a little song called Night after Night. It's about two nights, one right after the other. I laughed for days.
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Cokie Roberts's was among the first voices of women journalists to penetrate my world. For so many to gather at one place--NPR--seemed astonishing. Cokie Roberts, Nina Totenberg, Susan Stanberg, Linda Wertheimer. Talk about a dynasty.
The world will be a lesser place without my darling friend, Cokie Roberts, who died early this morning. I said good-bye last night. Told her I'd see her on the other side some day, where I know she will still be a star.
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I'm increasingly hearing the empty phrase "and whatnot" finish people's sentences. Maybe 10 years ago, it was "and such." Not sure where these habits start.
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The new fivethirtyeight.com pollster ratings are out. Happy to be in the company of fine colleagues. projects.fivethirtyeight.com…
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Iowa Poll: 2nd & 3rd congressional districts are tight; likely voters favor Republicans in 1st & 4th desmoinesregister.com/story/… via @DMRegister
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Just curious why many articles with a headline about 23, say, states showing spikes of COVID-19 cases do not list the 23 states. Or show me a map. They'll mention California, maybe, and go in depth with photos of Santa Rosa. I'd like to know the 23 (or whatever) states.
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Kind words. Thank you.
Proud that the @DMRegister continues to work with one of the best to produce the #IowaPoll! @jaselzer is an incredible asset for the state.
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Thanks!
Congrats to @jaselzer on Selzer & Co. receiving an A+ rating from @538politics! #dsmusa #catchdesmoines
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Sad news, yet I am optimistic you have a bright future. You're one of the best editors I've worked with. Politics editors more specifically.
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Here is the attachment, showing questions asked and topline answers reported out so far, including second choice. cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/…
Go to the CNN story and click on the poll for all the numbers released so far, including second choice. Hard for me to get Twitter to pick it up.
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Telling tidbits from Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll: [Corrected from earlier]
Biden’s favorable rating is down 15 points from March 2019 and his unfavorable rating has almost doubled in that time.
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Iowa Poll: Donald Trump and Joe Biden are locked in a dead heat six weeks to Election Day desmoinesregister.com/story/… via @DMRegister
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