Louisiana, USA
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Time for some College Baseball charts!
Starting with LSU’s run to the national championship.
They had a solid regular season, slightly led by their pitching.
Struggled early in the tourney, but their hitting put them back on track until a slip up in game 1 vs CCU.
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Defensive Yards Per Play ELO Power Ranking
Alabama
Iowa State
Iowa
Georgia
Illinois
#CollegeFootball
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87,027
CFB25 is unrealistic because there’s a 0% chance I would have made that FG in the game.
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3,180
Home Field Advantage: Who overachieves at home and underachieves on the road?
Virginia wins 33.7% more than expected at home than on the road.
Arizona State 32.6%
Wyoming 30.7%
Liberty 29.1%
…
Boston College -3.4%
Rutgers -9%
Bowling Green -11.7%
#CollegeFootball
@CFB_Data
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Performance Top 50 #NCAABaseball Team:
We can use this to answer question:
Why Wake Forest #1?
Why have some mid-majors dropped out of the Top 25?
We can also see 9 teams have separated themselves from the pack. And a second group of 10 teams are starting to move away.
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Regional Simulations
#NCAABaseball
11 Regionals have a projected winner > 50%
2 of those projected winners are not the #1 seed
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42,033
Who will be headed to Omaha?
Results of 10,000 Regional and Super Regional Simulations
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20,343
The solution lies in the ratio of single to double team occurance.
Ex. Player 1: PRWR Single 25%; Double 15%
Player 2: PRWR Single 27%; Double 17%
P1 is single covered 70% of plays. While P2 is single covered 40% of plays.
P1: 22% win rate
P2: 21% win rate
(I made up numbers)
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Last season, Michael Pratt led Tulane to new heights, and he returns for a fourth season for the Green Wave with high expectations. collegefootballnetwork.com/m…
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A G5 conference champion has beaten a P5 team that would have made the expanded playoff 3 of the last 4 regular seasons.
Tulane > KSU
Cincinnati > ND
Louisiana > Iowa St
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3,897
We can breakdown the Top 25 Hitting Teams into:
Hitting Efficiency - OBP & Baserunning
Hitting Explosiveness - Extra-base hits
1) Campbell
2) Maryland
3) LSU
4) South Carolina
5) FGCU
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8,625
It’s the year of the 2 seed.
Miss St, LSU, Duke, Wake Forest, South Carolina.
And what someone’s going to get a 3 seed Florida?
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That’s what she’s saying…
Upsets happen every week, it’s very difficult to go 11-0. So difficult that an average Top 25 team would have a 4% of doing it.
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This is a very bad take.
No one is ignoring strength of schedule. TCU had a better Strength of Record by most calculations.
The decision has to be based on actual results, not “what if” scenarios.
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Hot take. This FSU team without Travis went undefeated and won a P5 conference championship.
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How much will the SEC’s fixed opponents matter?
Given this list of fixed opponents, we can simulate the average FEI of a school’s SEC schedule each season.
Data: @bcfremeau | Opponents’ 5-year average FEI
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78,672
I’ve lost games because I try throwing a Hail Mary as the clock expired instead of letting it go to OT.
I’m fully prepared to throw away the whole season because I leave my QB in to beat a rival by 31 instead of 28 and he gets hurt
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OUs opponents have won 35% of their games.
Cincinnati’s opponents have won 37% of their games.
Will it matter?
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Team Performance Breakdown:
-Opponent Adjusted Net Expected Margin
-Strength of Record
A big shift from last week.
Wake Forest looks strong in Record and Margin, then the next 8 teams have started to jumble up.
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#Tulane had a stellar defensive performance against Kansas State.
The defense only allowed 3 drives to cross their 40 yard line and after a Pratt INT, held Kansas State to a FG on a drive that started in the red zone.
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This doesn’t make any sense.
If you lose a game, you want to counter it with a Quality Win or Top 25 win
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Why isn’t there a College Baseball Recap show on ESPN or even ESPN+?
Saturday or Sunday morning, 30 minutes, 1 minute recap of 20 games
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I don’t think changing the outcome is the point. It’s not the point of most investigations or lawsuits.
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End of Regular Season #NCAABaseball Top 25
1) Wake Forest
2) LSU
3) Florida
4) Virginia
5) Clemson
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5,572
Daniels was left off of 80-something ballots. Penix was left off of like 110. I can’t find the tweet where I saw the exact numbers
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Time to rant.
Many people on Twitter/X do not understand or believe in probability. And that’s one thing.
It’s another thing to blatantly ignore probability.
The website clearly lists win probabilities and clearly states it projects Colorado to win 5.94 games.
Massey Ratings projects Colorado to struggle in its final eight games, finishing the season with a record of 3-9
on3.com/news/colorado-footba…
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When you accidentally hit “create recruit” on NCAA Football but back out without making any changes.
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Boise State has placed themselves (record wise) among the tier 2 or tier 3 Power 5 teams over the last 8 years.
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We’re not even talking about football anymore. This is all fan fiction.
Next week, we’ll ask if Sanders will have more Super Bowl wins than Brady.
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Texas State is the SBC version of Oklahoma State.
All over the place.
Unpredictable.
Really bad and really good.
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Through last Sunday, my numbers say the team that has played the best baseball on average is LSU.
But Kentucky is the best performing team so far.
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#Tulane’s @stephonhuderson takes the Top Back in #Louisiana for back-to-back weeks. But #LSU steals 2 of the Top 3 spots.
1) Stephon Huderson #RollWave
2) Tyrion Davis-Price #LSU
3) John Emery Jr. #GeauxTigers
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I think preseason polls are fine.
1) They’re more of a expected power rating than a ranking
2) We all have expectations for teams before the season, these are just on paper.
BUT I agree here, I think “wins over ranked team” is a bad stat at any point during the year.
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This is a bad argument.
1) Opponent Record is a bad metric for SOR.
2) SEC teams end up with the same number of P5 wins as other P5 conferences even though they play 8 conference games and some play less P5 games.
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You’re doubling down on saying that people should leave their school and families who have had their lives destroyed to play a football game?
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You really shouldn’t be a fan unless you currently play on the team. That’s where the hard work is done.
It’s easier to be a Husky grad than a Husky player.
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Every #CollegeFootball Teams’ Most Competitive Opponent of the Playoff Era (min 3 games, based on win parity and margin of victory)
Texas is 5 schools’ most competitive rival.
Tulsa & Arizona State: 4
Army, Hawaii, Miami(OH), Neb, ODU, South Car, Texas State, WF: 3
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I am VERY Pro-“Hang the Banner”.
More schools should celebrate winning their division, conference, making tournaments/playoffs, bowls, etc.
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What does this even mean? If you’re trying to say Alabama is a good team just say Alabama is a good team.
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My poll got recognition from @GoCamelsBSB’s baseball coach!
Full rankings and details can be found at: bootanalytics.github.io
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If a team switched QBs, do the losses under the old QB not count? Are they now undefeated?
A team is a team regardless of their coach or who can play.
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I don’t understand what the issue is.
A sports bar promoting the NCAA baseball national championship game that’s on the same night as student discount night.
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Saban and Joe Burrow were awesome in 2019, and Saban's defense last season was great when they won the NC.
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Can we take two minutes to realize the slate is FAR from “awful”:
Defending Big 12 champions head to Missouri
LSU and Miss St meet in a wide open SEC West
Alabama & Oklahoma & Wake Forest on the road at G5 schools
UW in a likely must win @ MSU if they want to make the playoff
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What “SEC bias”?
A Top 5 (Elite) team would be expected to have 1.9 losses vs LSUs schedule, 1.68 v Bama’s schedule.
But 0.7 vs Ohio State’s schedule and Michigan’s schedule.
bcftoys.com/2022-fei/
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End of the Regular Season #NCAABaseball Top 25
Wake Forest is #1, led by their #1 Pitching and Strength of Record
LSU holds at #2
Clemson continues their run, up to #8 now.
Texas is back?
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So your argument is FSU played bad on one side of the ball, so they’re not good?
FSU net YPP vs Louisville: +0.7 result W
UT net YPP vs Bama: +0.3 W
vs Houston: -0.8 W
vs TCU: 0.4 W
vs Iowa St: -0.3 W
vs OU: 0.8 L
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They beat 3 teams in the Top 17…”that’s not a compelling argument, they should have to beat 4 or 5”
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Ohio State would have the best odds because they would have made a 12-team playoff every year.
Ohio State would have gotten in all 8 years.
OU makes it 6 instead of 4
UGA makes it 5 instead of 2
ND 4 instead of 2
collegefootballplayoff.com/n…
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I understand why people love “binary” metrics, but they are so flawed because nothing beyond a win/loss is binary in football.
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New #NCAABaseball Performance Top 25!!
@GamecockBasebll takes the #1 spot!
@DukeBASE & @AlabamaBSB climb into the Top 10
6 schools enter this week's Top 25, including @ClemsonBaseball climbing 17 spots.
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I didn’t say you lied or your AD lied…
I said it was a bad take to say that a team whose city is underwater had an opportunity to play.
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I didn’t know they ranked teams based on schedule.
I’m glad the games themselves don’t matter
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If QB is the most important position, just run 11 QBs out there and win the Super Bowl. Coaching is easy
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Alabama’s most competitive rivalries:
Clemson vs Alabama is Alabama’s only rivalry in the top 50% most competitive in the country.
This just further shows how Alabama has dominated their recurring opponents in the @CFBPlayoff era.
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I’m just getting around to catching up on @LateKickJosh and my question got brought up!!!
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Temple v Memphis is currently one of the most competitive rivalries of the playoff era, split series averaging 1-score margin of victory.
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