This is Josh, and I can tell you from a DC perspective it’s not the goal, it’s the how. Here’s the takeaway from people i talk to (who, GOP or DEM, universally think this is a total tire fire).
He’s very much going with “shut things down first, figure it out later.” The resignation letter they sent was lightly adapted from an identical letter sent to Twitter when he took over. It might have worked in private industry (though many disagree on that), but the government isn’t industry. There are heavy congressional laws over all this stuff, which the executive lacks the authority to just ignore. A handful of issues:
- Outright shuttering a statutory agency is very likely unconstitutional in view of current case law.
- There has been zero attempt to evaluate what positions were or were not necessary. The threatened cuts are being done wholesale and randomly.
- The resignation offer was facially illegal as first offered (you can’t promise longterm pay to federal workers, OPM lacks authority to offer it, taking another job while employed by the fed is often illegal, other reasons). And the sample contracts out now don’t match the initial offers. It’s a total mess.
- Many workers I know were hired pre-covid for hybrid telework positions. Undoing all telework wholesale in a city with hour commutes is brutal.
- The telework change is also wildly impractical. I work mostly with the USPTO. Most of its judges and something like 90% of the examiners telework. They’re self funded and work on a strict quota system. And they just gave up half their office space to save money. This is causing chaos and will almost certainly exacerbate huge hiring shortages.
- Every single person I know who took the resignation offer was changing jobs or retiring before September. Meaning it’s only guaranteed pay to those who would have already left (costing MORE money).
- IF the federal workforce shrinks voluntarily, it’ll be the workers who have better options who leave, and they probably do 80% of the work. Given how understaffed the VA and other agencies are with these offers it could create huge delays in processing for everyone.
- It’s more likely the current offer fails to reduce like they want and they begin haphazard cuts. They’ve already asked for a list of all new hires from all agencies. Some are needed, some aren’t, but there’s zero indication they’re sorting that out (especially as some departments don’t have a single political appointee yet to do the sorting).
Basically we were expecting a 2-year analysis of waste and then a systematic cutting of programs. Instead we’ve gotten an insanely impatient chainsaw. In small part, Musk has a documented hatred of lawyers, and they clearly did not employ even basic legal counsel in any of their decisions so far, so most of them will likely get unwound due to illegalities. This is reflected in trying the same letter as with Twitter rather than heavily reworking for government purposes. It’s clear he thinks he can do this in 6 months and just move on, but while that works in ultra high pay engineering positions this isn’t those positions.
Just my two cents as a DC-based lawyer in private practice.