I popularised prediction market data cofounder @ paymentscan.xyz dashboarding @ dune.com/datadashboards prev @ billion dollar protocols you used
- Tweets 2,570
- Following 799
- Followers 4,136
- Likes 3,427
i feel for him rn. vapourized $950k on the nyc election market
> Show up to @Polymarket 4 months ago
> Fresh wallet, maybe a first time user
> Go hard on Mamdani losing the 2025 NYC mayoral election - become the biggest holder of NO shares
> Hedges a little along the way
> Down 800K in 4 months
That has gotta sting. Would be poetic if it swings the other way to net him $2M in profits
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Two fresh wallets started aggresively buying YES on @Polymarket's "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?" 5 days ago.
Both only hold that singular position. Do they know something we don't?
0x46596a2fc634a734edc058b4def0b359d5b5959d
0x923fd5d5ec31899239e91e30fd11626634e8bde7
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Prediction markets just closed the first TWO BILLION DOLLAR WEEK EVER.
That's a new notional volume all-time high!
Uptober.
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Regular $5,000,000 days on @trylimitless now. Really strong growth last month, let's see how uptober fairs for them.
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Prediction Markets are lying to you about their statistics.
You may think this thread will be about wash trading, airdrop farming or sybil attacking but you'd be dead wrong.
Drop me a follow because I will cover that in the future but for now, let's talk about notional volume.
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Wow @Polymarket just hit a new all-time high.
74,390 daily active users yesterday - the most ever.
12,506 were new, the rest were returning users.
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> Show up to @Polymarket 4 months ago
> Fresh wallet, maybe a first time user
> Go hard on Mamdani losing the 2025 NYC mayoral election - become the biggest holder of NO shares
> Hedges a little along the way
> Down 800K in 4 months
That has gotta sting. Would be poetic if it swings the other way to net him $2M in profits
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Insane - @Kalshi saw over 500k transactions yesterday! They were just 12k shy of their all-time daily record, set during the 2024 US election.
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This morning I noticed @mert, @toly, and @lmrankhan had shared @theprivacycash on my timeline, so I decided to put together a quick dashboard.
It’s already surpassed 6,000 SOL in volume 👀
Check out the dashboard below ⬇️
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There is 193M USDC in @Polymarket trader's wallets (largely Polymarket Proxy wallets) just waiting for the new opportunities on the platform.
That’s dry powder ready to make various markets deeper, tighter, and more accurate.
Liquidity keeps growing. Spreads keep tightening. Being able to put on size without moving a market should just get easier.
Polymarket accuracy should only get better.
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Number 3 creator on Dune in the last 30 days!
Can't complain about being behind two of the greatest to ever do it.
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My prediction market dashboard got the editors pick tag from @Dune ♥️
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Over 10 million transactions on @Polymarket this month - and there are still 3 days left.
Up 3X from the lows of April 2025!
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You can now view this data on my Polymarket Overview dashboard 🫡
Polymarket officially launched Builder Codes, a week ago and have 10+ apps doing millions in daily volume.
Builder Codes allow third party apps to directly access Polymarket orderbooks, markets, and liquidity.
The power of being on-chain.
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New all-time high for @Kalshi - 886,222 daily transactions yesterday!
Happy ATH to all those who celebrate.
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Prediction markets did not do 180% of Solana memecoin volume!
They did 180% of Solana "Bonding Curve" Volume which is only until marketcaps reach 80k ish.
On dexs, @pumpdotfun memecoins do $6-8 billion daily. So a good week for prediction markets is only 25% of pump daily!!!
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~1% of all of @Polymarket's notional volume is from people betting on @elonmusk tweet markets 😂
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Prediction markets just had one of their biggest quarters ever
33 million trades
Explosive growth across @Kalshi, @MyriadMarkets, and @trylimitless
Some platforms hit all-time highs, others lost their crown
Let’s dive into the numbers👇
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Wow @opinionlabsxyz shooting up to $10M in Open Interest!
First prediction market outside of Polymarket and Kalshi to achieve that.
They've only been live via invite for a few days now.
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Sports volume on @Polymarket is ramping up. Notably a fair amount of Poker volume done in the 2025 National Heads-Up Championship market ($44M in the last 24 hours)
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I have the most popular dashboard on @Dune in the last 30 days!
Thanks for your support - I love you all ♥️
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If you strip out Politics/Trump markets, prediction markets are already trading at fresh highs by volume.
We might not have the election season to boost the numbers but general adoption is growing.
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Awesome to see my data featured in @FT's article:
"How sports gambling took over prediction markets in the US"
Big thanks to the authors and those who shared it with me!
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18 days into the month and @Kalshi has already done $1.3 billion of volume surpassing it's previous record month! 🚀
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This past Sunday was @Kalshi's highest volume day ever, with $319M in notional traded.
That's the second largest single day in prediction market history.
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The first @Polymarket Builder to cross $50M in cumulative volume (via builder codes) is @betmoardotfun 🎉
They’re in first place by a huge margin - about 7x more volume than second place!
This milestone was hit in under 10 days, averaging roughly $5M/day.
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$20M in Open Interest on @opinionlabsxyz now!
Closing in on 5% Prediction Market dominance after just 5 days of being live with invite only 🤯
Currently the top prediction market on @BNBCHAIN and backed by @yzilabs
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Last week, prediction markets reached their second-highest notional volume ever ($1.8B), only $180M short of a weekly all-time high.
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Over 90% of the users on @opinionlabsxyz over the last two days have been recurring ones. That's some pretty impressive user stickiness.
Think I'll have to add some cohort rentention charts to the dashboards soon.
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Should I provide additional context on prediction market data even if it may hurt companies' reputations?
I feel like it’s my duty to give my followers the most honest and accurate picture possible - even when it’s uncomfortable.
My goal isn’t to hurt anyone, only to provide full and fair context.
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Polymarket have given away over $10M in USDC to liquidity providers via their liquidity rewards program thus far!
Thanks to @poopmandefi for the suggestion. You can find the new charts on my @Polymarket Overview dashboard.
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Bloomberg down 😎
My data just got featured on @business.
Big thanks to @PepegaQuant for bringing this to my attention and @emilyjnicolle for featuring the data in her awesome article!
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I heard we dropped the pumpfun of prediction markets so thought I'd check it out. $2,000,000 volume achieved on @pmx_trade already!
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Another weekly ATH for @Kalshi: $854M in volume -more than double @Polymarket’s $405M. Kalshi captured 66.1% of the total market volume last week.
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Open Interest shared between @Polymarket and @Kalshi crosses $400M.
33.5% in Sports, 40.4% in Politics, 11.7% in Crypto, 14.4% in Other Categories.
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New monthly ATH for @Kalshi - $2.88 B in volume and still 9 days left until candle closure!
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Politics just flipped Sports as the top category by Open Interest on @Kalshi.
For the first time in 2 months, their Sports volume has dropped below 69% dominance - now sitting at just 63% of weekly volume.
Traders are branching out, with growing interest in election and politics markets.
A recent push from Kalshi’s growth team around the NYC mayoral race seems to be paying off. Overall volumes are climbing, and reliance on Sports is fading.
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$3.1B in notional volume over the last 30 days for @Kalshi - averaging over $100M/day!
accelerate.
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Yesterday, @Kalshi hit their highest volume day ever: $260M 🤯 - $15M more than last election day. They’ve now crossed $9B in cumulative volume!
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Open Interest on @opinionlabsxyz is back at all-time highs, hovering just above $50M.
That’s already around 20–25% of the way to being on par with Kalshi and Polymarket - quite an achievement in such a short timeframe.
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Cumulative volume on @Kalshi has now reached $8B.
Yesterday was their second best day on record with $215M traded.
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$1,000,000,000 of volume in just one week - a first for @Kalshi!
$13B total volume since inception and accelerating.
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Since it's privacy season I started on a new dashboard focused on Privacy Pools.
Interesting to see @theprivacycash
dominating the category if we focus only on Transactions done.
Data is for both Withdrawals + Deposits. Ragequits included in the case of the protocol "Privacy Pools".
You can check it out with the link below.
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Just got featured on @a16zcrypto's State of Crypto 2025 report!
Big thanks to @ballmatthew for giving me the heads up and of course @a16zcrypto for featuring me ❤️
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40,000,000 cumulative transactions now done on @Kalshi. 10,000,000 in the last 30 days.
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A whopping $789,600,329 of notional volume was done on @Kalshi last week on Sports markets alone.
That's 93% of their volume for that week!
Approximately half of their open interest is sat in Sports markets.
Sports volume on @Polymarket almost comprised 50% of their last week's volume too but those markets do not even make up 10% of their open interest.
Sports szn.
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Another milestone for @Polymarket 👏
221k unique users last week - a new all-time high.
That’s +4% from the previous record,
with 26% brand new users.
Prediction markets aren’t slowing down.
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🚀 @Kalshi just hit $2B in volume this month. If they push another $430M in the next 4 days, they'll DOUBLE their best month ever.
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Last week @trylimitless grew 5x to 28.6K users, reaching 24.3% user market share. @Polymarket continues to lead with 74.1%.
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Three days ago we saw a daily volume ATH of $315k for @MyriadMarkets. Their TVL is also sat just 5% shy of it's peak of $750K.
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Last month was the biggest ever for Prediction Markets. There were plenty of huge parternships and announcements so let's recap some of the key data:
> 524,238 Users of which 40.4% were new users
> 30 million transactions - that's almost triple the election month
> $8.7b in notional volume was achieved
For the most part this last month we saw @Kalshi leading on both Volume and Transactions with a 45-55% dominance (they are excluded from the user numbers). @Polymarket were more or less neck and neck with them but just fell behind slightly. The remaining smaller places made up between 7-10% of the overall marketshare.
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Last week set a new record for prediction market activity, with the highest number of transactions we've ever recorded in a single week. It was both @Kalshi and @trylimitless's best week ever.
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My dune dashboard got cited in NYT! 🥳
Thanks to @richardchen39 for pointing it out to me
Link: nytimes.com/2025/10/10/busin…
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Huge thanks to everyone who helped push my prediction market dashboard to the most popular on @Dune this month!
Next stop: the most popular prediction market dashboard of all time.
Fees for Limitless, Myriad and Kalshi on the way.
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i mean he stands to win $400k if he is right, hard to size into some of these markets much more than that
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30 million cumulative transactions on @Kalshi. Another monthly high only 19 days into the current month.
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With the $POLY airdrop being teased I was quite surprised to see only 17% of this month's users are wallets that have not interacted before.
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Yesterday, @Kalshi hit a new all-time high with 986,472 transactions in a single day.
They were also just $800K shy of breaking their record notional volume at $296.9M.
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A big Sports push on @Polymarket as of recent with over 80% of markets being created on October 5th and 6th being related to Sports.
Not sure yesterday's data is up-to-date based on the table I use so we shall revisit this in a few days. I'm curious if my categorial volume breakdown tweet influenced some decisions👀
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Last week Prediction Markets closed their 3rd best week ever based on notional volume (1.4b). Transactions continue to reach new highs (5m+).
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Right now most of the sports volume on @Polymarket is coming from Baseball, Soccer and American Football. Those three make up around 75% of sports volume for the last 4 weeks.
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Last month saw a record number of new @Polymarket wallets created - 440k!
Most remain unfunded, hinting at a large US user base that’s on the sidelines, ready to trade once they can.
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Record-breaking week for @Kalshi! Over 2M transactions last week, and yesterday hit 588K - 10% higher than their previous daily high.
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Over 3.3M proxy wallets have been created on @Polymarket, but only 1.2M have ever been funded.
The funding ratio keeps dropping - now just ~37%.
What’s the move to get the other 2M+ off the sidelines?
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Around 46% of @Kalshi's Open Interest is in sports markets. Follow me as tomorrow I'll be dropping a full categorical breakdown of Kalshi!
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thBills issued by @Theo_Network are now at an ATH of 88M 👀
With their highest adoption chain HyperEVM by @HyperliquidX being responsible for 50% of issuance.
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A strong start for @opinionlabsxyz - their October 25th notional volume numbers were higher than @Polymarket!
Yesterday's Notional Volume:
Kalshi - $254.9M
Opinion - $169.2M
Polymarket - $163.7M
Limitless - $1.30M
Myriad - $0.47M
Dashboard link below ⬇️
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$15 billion in Notional Volume has now been done on @Kalshi
Notable categories and their cumulative volumes:
$10.69b from Sports
$1.15b from Elections
$0.99b from Politics
$0.74b from Crypto
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Polymarket did what Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash did - subsidize early to build the network, not the P&L.
They likely have spent multiples of their total fees on LP incentives.
$2B raised, $9B valuation. Hard to argue with the results.
Is @Polymarket the first of its kind in this sense or are there other crypto projects who successfully did the same?
$4.2 million made in total from @Polymarket USDC fees. This query excludes ERC1155 fees. Polymarket is 0% fee now so no data since April 2025.
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Wow - user numbers are exploding on @opinionlabsxyz today.
They just crossed 40k cumulative unique users.
So far today has been their best day ever with over 20k users of which 11.5k (56%) were new.
Their user retention is also looking super strong.
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I've tweaked my dashboard as @primo_data kindly pointed out the difference betwen Notional Volume and Regular Volume. You can now track both of those on the dashboard. It's only given a small bump in @Polymarket and @trylimitless CLOB Volume. I believe AMM volume is unaffected.
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$200M in Notional Volume done on @opinionlabsxyz today
Supposedly ~2.5x @Polymarket's $86M today
They mentioned they'd be penalising wash trading so it'll be interesting to see how this develops over time
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My dashboard is now the 3rd most popular of all-time when searching for Polymarket!
Just two legends above me now.
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$500,000,000 notional volume crossed in 7 days on @opinionlabsxyz
Now holding above $30,000,000 in Open Interest too!
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69th on the Info Markets leaderboard on @KaitoAI.
We keep hustling, one day I won't be the person with the lowest amount followers up there.
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> hdtf21 shows up 21 days ago on @Polymarket
> yeets 40k into Xi Jingping out in 2025?
> stands to make a cool 500k if he is right
> 60% drawdown
> refuses to touch the position
> doesn't care about any other markets
> jishu11a shows up 17 days ago on @Polymarket
> yeets 40k into Xi Jingping out in 2025?
> stands to make a cool 500k if he is right
> 60% drawdown
> refuses to touch the position
> doesn't care about any other markets
do we think they are the same person?
0xc507c1e39fd1da8a7fd39ff9cdaa860aeb717484
0x7e27ace4396bd1e0377725f7e8576087fb84b979
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I’m going to add a new @Polymarket open interest query to my dashboards. Open Interest will be the TVL in active markets only. Right now it’s about 90% of @Polymarket’s TVL (roughly 153M of 170M)
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.@phantom crossed $20B in cumulative volume on their perps product yesterday.
This has netted them $10M in fees since they integrated it.
They consistently have around 5k perps traders per day with 90% being recurring traders.
They are the most popular HL builder and also have around 3x the userbase of the next wallet competitor.
Moreover, they have had the most all time users of any builder by a significant margin - 66,772 users compared to 2nd place's 30,383.
They done this all within 152 days whilst many of the other builders have been around for the same amount of time if not double or triple.
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Open Interest on @Polymarket broken down by my custom tags. Politics is where the vast majority of OI sits even after I filter Trump out from it.
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