2025 is in the books, and it was both outstanding and unsatisfying. If you had told me at the beginning of the year, the Asymmetric Portfolio would more than double the market's performance, I would have taken it. But after being up 53% early in October, the final results feel unsatisfying. The good news is, this is a long game. I'm happy to buy some of my favorite stocks 30-50% off their highs, and long-term, these compounding businesses will become compounding stocks. Thank you to everyone who subscribes, and if you want to see the portfolio's performance, the linked article is free to view. Bring on 2026! asymmetric-investing.beehiiv…

How the Yen Carry Trade Blows Up In just 90 seconds!

$HIMS Quick reminder, there's a company out there compounding revenue at 77% and trading for just 4x sales.

$NVDA This deserves some scrutiny. Inventory rising as growth slows is normally a 🚩.

$COIN Coinbase's non-trading segments are growing at 28% to 68% CAGRs. Long-term, this isn't a crypto trading company. It's a blockchain infrastructure company.

$HIMS lab testing complete. My experience: ⏰ 15 minutes from appt time to walking out the door 🧪 9 vials of blood 🎙️ Ample notifications about time and location from the Hims app Excited to get results that from what I can tell would cost me 10x+ more at the same facility.

$COIN This is my favorite Coinbase chart. This is the future.

$HIMS vs $PLTR revenue growth.

$COIN Coinbase's non-exchange business is becoming a pretty big business.

$HIMS A reminder that GLP-1s weren't introduced into Hims & Hers until May 20, 2024. The impact on the financials is approximately the highlighted portion below.

$HIMS $AMZN Everyone is freaking out about Amazon getting into telehealth today. I think Amazon will fail, but it's important to explain why. Vertical vs Horizontal Industries often shift between vertical business models winning to horizontal business models winning and back and forth. Why did TSMC beat Intel? TSMC was horizontal and Intel was vertical. Why did Apple beat Microsoft in mobile? Apple is vertical and Microsoft is a horizontal services company. We can even go back to IBM and Microsoft. These shifts are predictable. Amazon's Business Model Amazon's business model today is about vertical integration. It started with an online bookstore then added more products it built out data centers to run the business (which became AWS) then bought trucks then airplanes it got into streaming and advertising and on and on and on The model is, get people to pay for Prime and then offer them a bundle with everything in it. A little same-day shipping with some Thursday night football. Everyone wins. A vertically integrated company doesn't have to be THE BEST at anything because the value is being "good enough" at a lot of things. See Microsoft's entire software suite. It's not amazing, but it's "good enough" and it all works together. How do you compete with vertical integration? You do something they could do, but you do it BETTER THAN THEY CAN. The Hims & Hers Business Model Hims & Hers, like a lot of other companies formed in the past decade, knew it had to build a more specialized, horizontal business. Hims & Hers can't be a telehealth/pharmacy company and then get into streaming. It has to do one thing and do it better than anyone else. But it gets to build that specialization on top of the infrastructure Amazon didn't have in the 1990s. Cloud, shipping, AI, etc. The strategy is to establish a business in some accessible/overlooked niches (ED, hair loss, weight loss) and then expand the platform horizontally to more treatment and vertically integrate in the supply chain where that vertical integration augments the horizontal service in healthcare (think compounding and personalization). This is why half of Hims & Hers prescriptions are now personalized. It's how Hims & Hers can offer pills, creams, and (soon) gummies for the same treatment. That's a level of service Amazon will never have. This model requires a platform that's specialized (horizontal). Hims & Hers isn't going to get into owning data centers or trucks or airplanes. It's going to leave that to companies who specialize in that business. Where we stand today Vertical integration often works early in an industry's cycle because "good enough" is great. Need an obscure item for a home improvement project? How about diapers? And batteries? And groceries while you're here? Amazon could expand into tons of other products because it was vertically integrated and adding non-differentiated products was an easy win. This was seen as "crushing the competition" but do we really need a site just for diapers? Where Amazon struggles is with differentiated products. This will be the same in telehealth because it's not FOCUSED only on healthcare. Healthcare is a business stuck onto the rest of the vertically integrated business. Maybe some customers will choose Amazon because it's "good enough", but I think the long-term growth will be with Hims & Hers because the company is focused on healthcare and that's it. This focus should lead to a better platform, more personalized care, more products, personalizations, etc. There's precedent here. Netflix wasn't crushed by Amazon/Apple getting into video Spotify wasn't crushed by Amazon/Apple/YouTube getting into music Facebook wasn't crushed by Google's Circle (remember that one?) AppLovin, Trade Desk, PayPal, Airbnb, and on and on... In fact, all of these companies won BECAUSE of their focus and horizontal business models. The next decade won't be defined by the vertical integration that won from 2000 to 2023 and led to the big tech companies we know today. It will be defined by specialized companies building horizontal business models that leverage the infrastructure that's in place today (cloud, shipping, advertising, etc). Hims & Hers will win because it's focused. Amazon will lose because it has bigger fish to fry than telehealth. My opinion. Long $HIMS. PS. Not a Prime subscriber.

Without search (Apple/AI threat) and the network business (antitrust) $GOOG is left with this terrible business.

Oil wealth and indentured servitude will do that.

$SOFI The financial services growth is insane!

Given how many views the sphere has gotten, this seems like a pretty good deal.

I honestly think $COIN could be the best investment available over the next 20 years. Coinbase is playing chess while everyone else plays flip-cup.

After 18 months on the waitlist for a @Rivian, I’m excited to get my $1,000 back. Today, my delivery went from first half of 2023 to 🤷 “sometime in 2024”.

I got my Labs done with $HIMS. Here's what I learned. asymmetric-investing.beehiiv…

$HIMS Big Pharma and Big Pharmacy tried to get Hims & Hers' Super Bowl ad blocked. They even got senators involved. They're TERRIFIED of disruption from Hims & Hers making them irrelevant and I LOVE IT!

$COIN This is Coinbase's quarterly non-trading revenue before the blockchain goes mainstream. What's the upside in 10 years? 10x? 100x?

$SOFI Rapidly transitioning from bank -> banking technology company.

What did Buffett say? You can destroy a reputation in a day that was built over decades.

Why does Novo Nordisk want to work with Hims & Hers $HIMS again? They aren't growing anymore and Hims & Hers has growth. DEMAND IS WHAT MATTERS!!

$CELH A 109% CAGR is almost unheard of.

A) Yes. Saylor is doing arbitrage on the way up, buying bitcoin with overvalued stock. And that’s a reinforcing loop because he’s the biggest buyer, which drives up Bitcoin, which drives up his stock. The problem arises when NAV<market cap. He doesn’t have a “sell” side of the arbitrage because that is also a reinforcing loop downward. This is a unique problem now, IMO, because Saylor is such a big Bitcoin buyer and owner. If the fund flows go from into Bitcoin to out of Bitcoin what does the stock do? It’s like a Ponzi scheme. Easy to keep up when money is flowing in. But when money starts flowing out everyone finds out you’re swimming naked. Not that $MSTR is a Ponzi scheme. But it’s definitely a Ponzi scheme. B) YOLO x FOMO

Results are in, and I think this product could be huge for $HIMS. 5 Takeaways 1. Faster than going to a doctor. 2. More transparent data (democratizing access to data). 3. Lower cost. 4. Opens new verticals for $HIMS. 5. Deepens relationship and adds value beyond subscriptions. Ex. I may start using $HIMS recipes to improve nutrition. I didn't know they had that until yesterday. Exercise next? It's all about aggregating demand. And aggregating demand comes from adding value to users. $HIMS does this in spades with labs. Excited to see what's next. asymmetric-investing.beehiiv…

$COIN Based on trends so far in Q4, Coinbase will report the best trading quarter since December 2021.

$HIMS Hims & Hers reports earnings next week. What are you expecting?

$GOOG Don't underestimate the long-term potential for Google Cloud.

$ABNB I can't get over this chart. $777 million in income before operating the business.

$HIMS This was an incredible answer and shows that @AndrewDudum is ALL-IN on disrupting the status quo in healthcare. Think deeply about the WHY behind this answer to understand why I'm so bullish on Hims & Hers.

90% of beating the market is really just: Buy great companies Doing nothing for YEARS Profit It's harder than it looks, but the formula is simple.

$HIMS thesis in one sentence: Competitors are armed with fax machines.

The underrated outcome of labs is $HIMS having perfect patient data to inform their next verticals. Imagine knowing exactly what patients need before you even offer it and launching by marketing to a cohort of users with perfect overlap.

$COIN 4 Reasons to Love Coinbase in 4 Charts 1. Stablecoins now 120 million in monthly transactions. $USDC 2. Over $1.4 trillion in stablecoins tx in the last 30 days. $USDC 3. Coinbase growing in stables, blockchain, custodial fees, and trading. 4. $2.7 billion in net cash.

$ABNB Airbnb makes more interest income than most banks.

$HIMS GLP-1s get a lot of attention, but Hims & Hers is building a healthcare platform. And platforms win by having the most customers, which attracts the most suppliers. This is the chart to watch. The day-to-day news is noise.

I really try to take the $ASTS bulls seriously but when you use “imagine” as your bull case it’s a story stock, not fundamentally driven. Just take some of these examples: - No chance autonomous vehicles will want a satellite connection when 5G is available. And they’re nowhere near going outside 5G service areas. - Connected agriculture…I live in the Midwest. We have great service on farms. - Humanoid robots? Are the wandering around the desert? The problem is, these satellites aren’t long lived assets. They’ll be in service for ~5 years. We need real use cases and paying customers (most are a revenue share model) now, not dreams. Still watching, but this is why I don’t get the thesis until they prove it to me with real $$$.

Democratizing the supply of advanced medical technology is a game-changer. $HIMS is breaking down the walls doctors, pharmacies, hospitals, and insurers have spent decades building. That's what makes the company disruptive!

$CROX It's hard not to like a company with debt trending down and FCF trending up. Still only trading at price/FCF of 8.7x.

$SOFI Why own a bank with real estate, capital constraints, and lots of employees when you can own a bank/technology company that could scale almost infinitely?

$HIMS Over the past three years, Hims & Hers has a 75.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

I will translate this forecast into Minnesotan. You will need to zip up your winter jacket tonight and tomorrow and probably wear a hat and gloves. By mid-day Saturday it's back to the Patagonia. Watch out for rain on Monday.

$TSLA Auto gross margin ex reg credits down to 18.5% from 28.8% a year ago. Margin per vehicle has fallen from $15,675 to $8,719. Price cuts are directly hitting margins, as predicted.

They deserve it. Went to look at an F-Pace in 2017. Pulled up in an old Civic and probably didn’t “look the part”. Staff couldn’t have cared less we were there. So we left. Bought a BMW a few hours later. Still have it and loved the experience.

It's 4:17 ET. No way @fiscal_ai has KPIs for $GOOG done. WRONG. They're all updated minutes after results are out. Amazing work.

Buying this basket on December 27, 2022 when the data is from would have generated phenomenal returns.

It was a sarcastic post. I love Alphabet's non-search businesses and the chart above shows that combined they're growing at a 20%+ CAGR.

🚀Asymmetric Investing leans into the advantages we have over the market: 1️⃣Unlimited upside for stock investors 📈 2️⃣Thinking about next decade 📅 while Wall Street thinks about next quarter📊 3️⃣Embracing uncertainty and optionality in business💡 asymmetric-investing.beehiiv…

Not at all how cars are priced these days. Save maybe 15-20% for a 2 year old car. But you don’t get the full warranty.

Here's a write-up for those interested. Feel free to pass along and (of course) sign up for Asymmetric Investing! asymmetric-investing.beehiiv…

$GOOG Search is doing OK with 10% revenue growth. But that's not the story for Alphabet. YouTube continues to be the biggest streaming service (bigger than $NFLX) with 10% growth in ads. Netflix is worth $470 billion, so is YouTube worth over $500 billion? Subscriptions and services are the under-discussed segment. Revenue was up 19% and this is driven by Android and subscriptions that include Gemini! Finally, Google Cloud did $12.3 billion in revenue with an 18% operating margin. At that runrate, this may be a $1 trillion business. As a business, Alphabet is doing great. Don't underestimate the company's lead in AI and how it will extend that with leading infrastructure.

What about Cruise? GM is worth 1/15 of Tesla and has a viable path to scaling a vehicle at lower costs than Waymo.

$COIN Massive quarter. 📈Transaction revenue nearly tripled sequentially. 💸Stablecoins fell a bit because of lower rates and Binance entering the pool. 💰Coinbase now has $9.3 billion in cash assets. More thoughts after the call.

$HIMS Holy revenue growth!

Not believing in the future of solar energy today is like not believing in computers in 1980 or the internet in 1995.

$GOOG If Google Cloud can only grow at 30% per year, it will only be a $600 billion business with maybe $120 billion in operating income a decade from now. Just a garbage business. Please sell this stock...so I can buy more.

$JOBY Let me be clear. This offering is GOOD NEWS! It de-risks the balance sheet and gives a longer runway to scale along with allowing the flexibility to take the higher margin, more capital intensive, business model.

$HIMS May 8, 2025: We're raising ~$1 billion to expand internationally. June 3, 2025: We're acquiring ZAVA to expand into Europe. Look at what management says and then what the do. If the two line up, you have something.

Being an investor isn't a part-time hobby. It permeates every part of your life. You think about investing when watching a movie. You think about investing when you're shopping. You think about investing when you're sleeping. Just ask my wife, this is a blessing and a curse.

The year is 2050. $PLUG is generating $500 billion/year in revenue and free cash flow is a negative $1.2 trillion per year. There are now 900 trillion shares outstanding. Andy Marsh says adjusted EBITDA breakeven is less than a year away.

He has the money. He no longer has the reputation. I hope it was a good trade.

The negotiation transcript is crazy. “Hi, this is Tim Cook.” “Shit, how much do you want?” “Let’s start with 9-figures and go from there.”

These stats are so insanely skewed because Tesla only provides the data it wants to provide. If Tesla was truly safer, insurance cost would be lower than a BMW. But it’s not.

The most powerful words any investor can say: "I don't know." Once you embrace the unknowns in life and investing, you're free to embrace the inherent uncertainty of the market.

$HOOD In 2021, the average Robinhood user had $4,789 in assets. Today, the average user has $9,460 in assets. Moving up the market is a really good sign for the business.

Incredible.

CEOs teaching the 77-year-old President of the United States Econ 101. Incredible to see.

It's exactly like the internet in the 1990s. There's something "there". But what we have now isn't it.

A little midnight project went viral. 🤷 Welcome to over 1,000 new followers! I’m Travis and I tweet about stocks and investing. I write a newsletter (link in bio) and have a YouTube channel if you want more. Let me know what you like/want more of.

The asymmetric investment opportunities of the next decade are trading for under 15x earnings today, not over 40x earnings. Prices matter.

$GOOG If Google Cloud grows at a 25% CAGR thru 2030 and gets to a 25% operating margin it would generate $33 billion in operating profit!

$ASTS AST SpaceMobile's stock is up 581% in 2024! I know there's a lot of hype but this chart says a lot!

Incredible work here.

You probably don't follow me for crypto takes and I don't post about crypto often anymore, so I'll keep this short. This is the one asymmetric opportunity I'm in. 1. The team has been building the game for years through the bear. 2. Economics and gameplay are innovative and only possible on the blockchain. 3. Multi-chain and crypto isn't required to play, opening up the market. 4. The assets seem extremely undervalued with $YAKU at a ~$4 million market cap. Enough said.

$SOFI Results look great. The reaction may be negative because it wasn’t a blowout. But long-term a 24% revenue growth rate is phenomenal and more people are CHOOSING to use the product than ever before. Don’t loose sleep over minute details of a single quarter.

Why do investors cite analyst expectations? When have the analysts ever been right?

If people knew what the product was it wouldn’t be worth $340 billion.

4 factors drive stocks higher: 1. Revenue Growth 2. Margin Expansion 3. Multiple Expansion 4. Buybacks Getting ahead of the market on any of these factors increases your chance of beating the market.

Made this late so I’ll update any minor errors in the morning.

This is exactly what our neighborhood looked like last night.

$HIMS Bold prediction @AndrewDudum should actually do. Become Hims & Hers & Kids. Parents buy a preventative medicine kit with a smartphone connected otoscope, thermometer, and strep test. 24/7 diagnostics for basic illness with 12-hour delivery promise. Priceless!!

My latest piece for @RiivProject is up. I broke down @AnybodiesNFT. Hype aside, I think this is a unique and sustainable business model that could capture a lot of eyes in retail and fashion. riiv.io/p/anybodies-business…

Writing ~3,000 words supporting (and trying to break) the investment thesis for every stock I own has been the most important change I made in 2023.

Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price. If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad.

$MELI A compounding machine.

It’s a Chinese company and you don’t actually own any of the company. Not to mention, China can shut the company down, take it over, “disappear” the founder, etc at their whim.

Step 1: Elon fires everyone Step 2: Zuck hires them to build a copy cat app Step 3: Copycat destroys Twitter Step 4: “Hey, that’s not fair”

It's still wild to me that Amazon has convinced people to pay an annual fee for the right to pay higher prices than either $TGT or $COST.

$AXON Axon has quietly become a subscription company and it's signing 10-year contracts! Amazing business model.

$SOFI SoFi reports earnings on Tuesday morning. Here's what Wall Street is expecting: Revenue: $564.6 million EPS: $0.00 I want to see platform service revenue and profit increase.💰 Tip: CEO Anthony Noto is one of the best conference calls each quarter. Straight talk. No BS.

$AXON A 27.2% CAGR over 10 years is...impressive.

$LYFT Lyft is now profitable and generating free cash flow. With the stock trading for under 1x sales, this is one of my favorite stocks for the next decade.

This is the point of insurance. Risks go up. Rates go up. There is no “plan to fix this” unless you’re asking for the rest of the country to subsidize insuring your home. Is that what you’re asking for?

1. $TDOC was never profitable. $HIMS is. 2. $AMZN is a marketplace working within the existing system. $HIMS is primarily working outside of the system (no insurance). I also wonder what the limit of "Why wouldn't $AMZN squash XXX" is? The won't squash everyone.

If there’s ever going to be a blockchain metaverse it probably looks a lot like @YakuCorp. I chatted with @PapiChuloGrim about the project’s long-term vision. riiv.io/p/yaku-building-sola…

Psychedelics Anonymous could be a breakout NFT in 2022 as it reveals utility and benefits to holders. There are a lot of unknowns, but it's a project worth watching. nftproject.beehiiv.com/p/psy…

$COIN Coinbase is the definition of operating leverage.

The Asymmetric Portfolio is my way of showing how you can build wealth of time following some simple rules. 1. Invest regularly 2. Buy 10x stocks 3. Don't sell Started in May 2023, I've invested $500 every month in Asymmetric stocks. The result is a portfolio that's up 68% and turned $11,000 into $17,000 AND GROWING! Follow all of my work, including the Asymmetric Portfolio (premium) here👇

The less you check your portfolio the better you'll do as an investor.

$SOFI Each of SoFi's main business segments are profitable.