Total National Voter Registration - December 31st, 2025 🔴Republicans: -29,327 🔵Democrats: -81,654 🟡Others: +43,673 Arizona year-end maintenance pushed the nation into the negative column in December, and the total Democratic edge over Republicans dropped by 0.03%.

We're fortunate enough to have wrangled in some hard turnout numbers in Wisconsin over the last 30 minutes, and according to the Suamico (Brown County) clerk's word of the day calendar, today's word of the day is "Gangbusters". So far today, the town has seen just under 1,300 total in-person voters, and with just over 2,100 early and absentee votes cast, it brings the total vote as of 11 am CT to 3,400. In the 2023 WI Supreme Court race, the total turnout from Suamico was 4,304, and it appears that this year's vote is tracking to finish closer to 6,000, an increase of roughly 40%. Two additional clerks in Buffalo and Wood counties were also kind enough to pass along data as of 11 am ET, and we're tracking for similar increases there. Put it all together and what we have is an election day turnout that appears to rival that of 2024. Just under 1.9 million voters showed up to vote on November 5th, 2024, and we appear on the same track for April 1st, 2025. It's a blowout on WI voter turnout; a very imprecise estimate for total votes cast is landing around 2.5 million. This will crush the 1.855 million we saw just two years ago.

I'm out of clever things to say about Nevada. Ten days in, and Republicans will not stop. 🔴Republicans - 279,168 🔵Democrats - 239,070 🟡Others - 179,305 Republicans netted another 7,000 votes from yesterday's SoS report, and their lead is now 40,098. They are just 3,000 votes shy of taking the raw turnout lead in Clark County. Turnout compared to 2020 will struggle without an extreme improvement from the independent vote. We swapped 100,000 partisan registrations for 300,000 independent registrations—a lousy trade. Clark County frequency and another small mail drop will be updated tomorrow morning. Even though you know what it will say, tune in! NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

I have been tracking PA absentee requests and returns since the primary in 2020. Today was the first time in just over four years (10 statewide elections) that Republicans out-requested Democrats in mail absentees for the previous day. 🔴8,299 Republican requests 🔵8,079 Democratic requests

Nevada Early Voting Update - FINAL Nevada just posted its final evening SoS report (there will be one tomorrow with a very small additional amount of mail) and our "go into election day" numbers are: 🔴Republicans - 410,179 🔵Democrats - 367,941 🟡Others - 310,972 Over the last three days, Democratic mail cut into the Republican lead by 7,000 ballots. 🔴42,238 raw vote lead 🔴+3.9% current electorate Republicans are going to outvote Democrats on election day in Nevada. What remains to be known is how many mail ballots in Clark County are dropped off tomorrow and received by the county until Saturday. Frequency scores suggest the trailing mail total will be low. The amount of mail logged by Clark County over the last three days suggests the traling mail total will be low. The margin between Republicans and Democrats in Clark County mail from start to finish suggests the trailing mail total will be low. Expect the final 300,000 votes split between election day and trailing mail to be even between R's and D's. The statewide Republican party turnout advantage will remain 8 points ahead of Democrats and their final raw turnout lead will be +/- 5,000 votes from where we sit today. Harris will need a sizable win with Independents to carry the state. Advantage, Trump. NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

We've now crossed the 3 million mark in North Carolina (3.1 million), and Republicans notched a 10,000 gain vs. Democrats on Monday. 🔴Republicans - 1,059,249 🔵Democrats - 1,024,980 🟡Others - 1,018,454 Democrats finished third place in yesterday's vote count as independents nearly matched Republican turnout. Tomorrow, expect another Republican gain and the "Others" to pull into second place. Five full days of early in-person voting remain in North Carolina, and today is the LAST day to request an absentee ballot (ballots are due back before polls close on Tuesday; best to show up in person). R+1 environment, and we will live in it for a bit longer. NC Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Arizona Early Voting Update - FINAL Going into election day tomorrow, we have our final numbers in Arizona. 🔴Republicans - 954,306 🔵Democrats - 758,342 🟡Others - 625,731 Like Nevada, Arizona has remained consistently Republican from the start. Unlike Nevada, this trend will accelerate further on election day and with late-arriving mail. 🔴195,964 raw vote lead 🔴+8.4% current electorate Republicans will outvote Democrats on election day tomorrow and win late-arriving ballots; their lead will likely grow beyond 300,000 total raw ballots, and the final electorate is likely to finish somewhere between R +8.5 and R +10. It goes without saying that Harris will not win 68% of independents in Arizona. However, the danger to Trump and down-ballot Republicans is more about the R-to-D crossover vote than just how independents will vote. What would a realistic vote share be for Harris for the race to be a statistical tie? Win 9% of Republicans Win 97% of Democrats Win 55% of Independents It's possible, IMHO, but unlikely. Harris will need to expand Biden's margins in Maricopa and Pima to account for the likely gains Trump makes everywhere else. Advantage Trump. AZ Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

North Carolina has completed one week of early in-person voting, and we have a new party leader in overall turnout. 🔴Republicans - 686,624 🔵Democrats - 683,301 🟡Others - 638,268 This marks our third "flip" since Democrats opened early voting with a slight lead; Republicans were able to net nearly 15,000 raw votes yesterday and look primed to build on their lead over the next two days. It's the same story here in NC as in other states (and specifically Georgia). Compared to the last handful of general elections, this early-vote electorate is more Republican and white. Two million votes have been banked, representing just over 35% of the expected vote. Ten days of early voting and same-day registration remain. NC Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Pennsylvania 2024 General Election Turnout Report 🔴Republicans - 3,095,118 🔵Democrats - 3,030,540 🟡Others - 944,046 ⚫TOTAL Turnout - 7,069,704 (77.02% of total voters) 🔴R+0.91% Final Electorate (64,578 raw vote edge over D's) The Keystone State saw an increase in turnout, with 114,254 additional voters showing up to the polls compared to 2020. The increase came exclusively outside SEPA. For the first time in Pennsylvania history, registered Republicans outvoted registered Democrats in an even-year general election. In 2020, registered Democrats had a 262,308 raw vote edge; the four-year cycle saw a 4.7% swing right in the final electorate (D+3.77% in 20). Ironically, the only county where Democrats saw higher party turnout was Philadelphia. The other 66 counties all saw higher Republican turnout. 54 of 67 counties moved toward Donald Trump, the most significant movement coming from Monroe County (7.15%). PA Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Our last Nevada update for October is in. 930,296 votes have been recorded, which represents 68% of the expected electorate. 🔴Republicans - 361,638 🔵Democrats - 314,343 🟡Others - 254,315 Republicans found a way to go 13 for 13 in early voting, netting 2,887 votes today over Democrats. With one final day of early in-person remaining, this is where we stand: 🔴47,295 raw vote lead 🔴+5.1% current electorate Clark + Washoe's morning mail and frequency scores will be updated tomorrow. NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Friday afternoon, the North Carolina Supreme Court struck a blow to Justice Allison Riggs, paving the way for challenger Jefferson Griffin to eventually win November's election (in June). The high state court ruled that the 60,000+ ballots lacking proper registration details would be counted, however, they also ruled that the set of UOCAVA voters who never verified their ID (because the NC system does not allow for it) would be given 30 calendar days to do so or have their ballots thrown out. The court also left in place the appeals court decision to toss 273 UOCAVA ballots because these voters have never lived in North Carolina and were deemed ineligible to vote in non-Federal races. Data provided by @BryanRAnderson shows why, if Riggs is unsuccessful in the Federal Appeals Court, she is likely to lose.

There's no better way to close a Wednesday evening than with an update from Nevada. 🔴Republicans - 335,644 🔵Democrats - 291,236 🟡Others - 229,341 We've crossed 850,000 votes and have ~62% of the expected electorate banked. Republicans won the day for the everyth (industry term) day in a row, but the trend has slowed down considerably, and Democrats have a shot at winning tomorrow's vote. Today's Republican net gain was 1,612 votes. Their raw vote lead is 44,408 votes, and today's electorate is 5.2%. We've flipped the trend on the total margin and will gently coast downward until election day. Nevada still has two days of early in-person voting, and late tomorrow morning, I'll have frequency scores and Clark + Washoe morning mail updated. This continues to track toward an R+2 - R+4 final electorate. NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

The ballot counting problem in Arizona is mainly due to the legislature updating election laws. But it's not all on the legislature. On Tuesday afternoon, @sfalmy noted 2.5 million ballots in the state's hands, the vast majority of which had been pre-processed and ready to be counted on election night. The state had received all of these ballots as of Monday, 11/4. On election day, 490,000 voters voted in person. The total of these two numbers is 2.99 million. Set aside the mail delivered on Tuesday and the ballots dropped off on election day for a moment. As of now, Arizona has counted 2.909 million ballots. Four days after election day, the state still hasn't reached the total 2.99 million votes they recorded by mail thru Monday and on election night Tuesday. That's unacceptable. You can forgive the time it takes to process late-arriving mail, and the ballots dropped off on election day, but at minimum, the early vote and election day vote should not take four days to complete. More machines, staff, and whatever is necessary to promptly process and drop these ballots. Too many elections in a row in AZ where the minimum standard is not being met.

North Carolina Early Voting Final Update - 11.03 The state wrapped up its 17-day early voting period, and the current tally of 4.44 million votes represents roughly 80% of the expected electorate. 🟡Others - 1,524,456 🔴Republicans - 1,478,746 🔵Democrats - 1,437,281 Others won the Saturday vote, Democrats came in second, and Republicans finished third. Absentee votes will roll in over the next three days, tightening the final EV margin a touch. 🔴41,465 raw vote lead (over Democrats) 🔴+0.9% current electorate (over Democrats) The comparison vs. 2020 shows that the total number of early voters in both is pretty close, and the total # of white early voters is nearly identical. The big difference, of course, is that, like GA, there is a couple of points drop in the black share of the vote. The female/male margin vs. 2020 is also identical at 10.5%. What will the final ~1 million voters in NC look like? Well, a lot like this, but like GA, we'll likely see an ever-so-slightly whiter, more Republican, and more male vote than the first 4.44 million voters. The final expected electorate in NC remains R+1 - R+3. NC Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Maricopa does not report over the weekend; Pima does. Monday and Tuesday, we'll see the larger numbers statewide.

Pennsylvania Early Voting Update - 10.28 Absentee voting in Pennsylvania is picking up its pace, and the current turnout is as follows: 🔵Democrats - 819,112 🔴Republicans - 438,017 🟡Others - 145,778 The way this is going to work down the stretch is simple. Tomorrow is the last day to request a ballot (in person or online), so the Wednesday report will be the last to show new requests. When that stops, the GOP return rate goes flying because it is no longer bogged down with a significant addition of new, unreturned requests daily. The last five PA reports (Thursday - Wednesday morning) will show R return rate gains of at least 0.5%. The margin of returned ballots will continue to tighten. We've gone from an expected return rate of D+ high to mid-20s last week to D+ low to mid-20s today. This is an accelerating trend, just like PA voter registrations, and will be capped by total requests on Wednesday. PA Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

North Carolina Early Voting Update - 10.19 Good morning, election followers. We kick off Saturday mornings with the last seven days of net change in NC voter registrations: 🔴Republicans: +8,746 🔵Democrats: +7,126 🟡Others: +18,742 Today, Republicans flipped the numbers, leading the in-person voting period by 691 votes. With two weekend days ahead, Democrats will take the lead and possibly return it next week. We're on a see-saw to start. It goes without saying, but Democrats cannot go into election day with a raw turnout deficit; I do my best to stay measured and grounded with all possibilities ahead, but "Democrats are waiting to outvote Republicans on election day in North Carolina" is not one of them. Early on, NC is starting to shape up like Georgia. White and Republican out of the gate. Let's see what kind of lead Democrats can build over the next two days and whether they begin relinquishing it again on Monday. Complete breakdowns of numbers are updated through today on the NC Sheet, including county breakdowns. docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - October 2024

New York Voter Registration Update - November 2025

Pennsylvania Early Voting Update - 10.15 The net change in voter registration over the last seven days: 🔴Republicans: +22,188 🔵Democrats: +9,428 🟡Others: +8,893 Republicans increased registration margins again this week and are doing a good job of matching Democrats on the ballot requests day over day. We're at the point in the process where, on the returns side, the margin will only get tighter every day until election day. With Allegheny, Philadelphia, and Montgomery reporting returns well over the state average and more than a dozen Republican counties yet to start counting, the trend will only go one way from here on out. What currently represents a return advantage for Democrats of D+42.64% will likely end in the mid-to-high 20s. This is not 2020, and this is certainly not 2020.

Arizona Early Voting Update - 10.23 With 900k votes in, Republicans are beginning to flex their registration advantage. Current turnout through this morning: 🔴Republicans - 376,348 🔵Democrats - 321,495 🟡Others - 199,005 When looking at the frequency of Arizona voters, Democrats are doing best in getting their reliable voters to turn out so far, while Republicans are doing better at getting the new and infrequent voters to cast ballots. Republicans have more voters in every bucket, so their raw margin is expected to be higher than Democrats, but they also enjoy greater rates of return. This trend has not changed from the jump and leaves Republicans with a little more firepower down the line. AZ Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Arizona Early Voting Update - 10.29 Arizona has cast 1.63 million ballots today, representing roughly 50% of the expected vote. 🔴Republicans - 683,281 🔵Democrats - 554,492 🟡Others - 392,617 Arizona is another state where independents are nowhere close to pulling their weight. In 2020, they finished with a 68% turnout rate, and they won't get anywhere near that number this year. Having followed the nationwide voter registration changes closely for the last 2 years and seeing many new independent registrations (across the country), it would appear the vast majority are not interested in 2024 participation. AZ Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

In Clark County, Republican turnout rates are rising faster than Democrats', allowing them to match raw turnout daily. The day #1 report showed Democrats with a 7,000-vote lead. Seven days later, the lead has remained the same. Each day, Republicans draw a higher rate of low and no-frequency voters while both parties begin to exhaust their "for sure" group. As noted, Democrats cannot expand their margin in Clark County until they draw more low-frequency voters in a day's report. The trend here has been remarkably consistent.

We're three hours into election day voting in FL-06, Randy Fine is getting everything he could have dreamed of, and more. Turnout is booming, and Republicans are coming out en masse. Exactly 19,000 ballots were cast today through 10 am ET, and the composite of these ballots is a whopping R+36. This pushes the overall current electorate to R +13.04%, and we are likely going to sail upwards toward R+18% by the end of the day. Massive #'s from Republicans so far today in FL-06.

Georgia has started posting its absentee file, reminding us that comparing this election to 2020 is unwise. ⚫8.31.24 Requested Absentees - 80,240 ⚫8.29.20 Requested Absentees - 806,561 In 2020, Georgia finished with just over 1.6 million requested absentees and more than 1.3 million counted. We'll likely end up with about one-third of those totals this year. Joe Biden won the absentee vote in GA by 30.26% in 2020, and with a much smaller number of absentees requested this year, Harris will undoubtedly do better than that. Still, she cannot match his 399,000 raw vote edge in absentees because we may not even have that many cast. As election night results come in, especially in East Coast states, the significant reduction of absentee votes this year will change the calculus on who's hitting the targets they need.

2022 Arizona Election Turnout Update - 1:00 pm ET. Republicans continue to outvote Democrats 4-1 in Maricopa county ... (the only county w/ data I'm afraid). Here's where we stand at 1pm ET. Polls close in AZ at 11pm ET. (10 hours).

All Party Voter Registration Changes: November 2020 - July 2024. Every state + county can be found in the drive. drive.google.com/drive/u/0/f…

Lucky us, Nevada is in early tonight. Today marks the halfway point of early in-person voting, and we have 543,543 votes cast (cool #). 🔴Republicans - 219,002 🔵Democrats - 188,882 🟡Others - 135,659 I know you're shocked, but Republicans have added to their lead and now have just over a 30,000 raw vote advantage. Democrats' lead in Clark County continues to muddle around 5,000 votes and trail R turnout by 7%. Vote frequency and registration in Clark will be updated tomorrow. NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - May 2025

Total National Voter Registration - August 31st, 2025 (August change by party) 🔴Republicans: +43,783 🔵Democrats: -55,124 🟡Others: +142,459 Apologies for the delay in finishing up August; we were waiting on the California update, and @WinWithJMC was kind enough to get in touch with Alaska so they could correct their registration report. The country removed roughly 120,000 voters last month through a roll cleanup (primarily in Florida & Georgia), and the Democratic edge over Republicans dropped by 0.09%.

With Pennsylvania's weekly registration update today, I'd like to look at the net change (R vs. D) over five distinct periods. 🔴Week: R + 1,926 🔴Month: R + 5,769 🔴Year (January 3rd): R + 82,858 🔴Mid-Term: R + 197,342 🔴Presidential: R + 333,592 The county breakdown for these periods (attached) shows the net difference in R vs. D registrations. For example, in Chester County, Democrats have a: Net gain of 67 voters this past week Net gain of 177 this past month Net loss of 764 voters this past year Net loss of 495 voters since the mid-term Net gain of 5,309 voters since the presidential The overall statewide changes have been relatively uniform; however, within the state, largely SEPA, Democrats have begun to push back a bit as election day '24 approaches. The Democratic lead in registration is currently 352,226.

It's becoming more clear with each passing day that Republicans' greatest strength in turnout resides in the Sun Belt so far. In both Arizona and Nevada, Democrats are pulling more voters from their reliable pool (3/3 general election voters) while Republicans are getting more voters from everywhere else. As time passes and turnout rises, Democrats are left with an increasing share of new and low-frequency available voters, while Republicans still have a sizable portion of their 3/3 waiting in the wings. In Clark County, it's about as drastic as one could draw it; Democrats cannot pull away from Republicans in the early vote because while Democrats have a 75k registration advantage in low and no-frequency voters, the raw turnout in these buckets is nearly the same between the parties. Both are burning through the same rate of the 3/3 voters, but eventually, Democrats will need to find a way to get their new voters to vote. Otherwise, their registration advantage in Clark can never be realized.

Arizona presents a slightly different picture than Nevada in terms of voters remaining. Here, Democrats are burning through their 3/3s faster. This has not stopped Republicans from picking up tens of thousands of net votes with each update simply because Republicans have so many more voters available. Republicans are also hitting more of their low-frequency voters. A considerable registration advantage + more robust turnout offer a much larger window of pro-Republican outcomes in the electorate. Tracking for an R+9 - R+10 environment on this one. AZ Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Another 215,000 votes have come across the wires in Georgia today, and we now have 3.27 million votes cast. ⚪White - 59.34% (+0.01%) ⚫Black - 25.95% (-0.19%) White voters continue to vote at roughly a 2.5:1 pace over black voters, while most counties are turning out at relatively the same rates down the stretch. In May, Brian Kemp signed SB189 into law, requiring all counties to post absentee and early votes within one hour of poll closing. Georgia's " Floridafication " means that before 8 p.m., roughly 80% of all votes cast will be reported. The remaining election day vote will take a few hours (and the Atlanta metro always likes to come in last), but kudos to Georgia for ensuring a repeat of 2020 does not happen. GA Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - April 2025

2022 Florida Election Turnout Update - NOON 1.2MM votes counted in the first five hours, this is where we stand. Republicans - 657,288 (54.02%) Democrats - 294,092 (24.17%) NPA's - 265,356 (21.81%) Current lead for Republicans in the state is 679,000 votes. Next update 3pm.

Florida Voter Registration Update - August 2025

Nevada has graced us with a full update that totals all activity through this evening (mail + EV). Total turnout after the first three days of early voting: 🔴Republicans: 96,858 🔵Democrats: 88,983 🟡Others: 59,515 Nevada is a same-day registration state, and in the first four days of early voting, Republicans have a net gain on Democrats of 1,200 new voters who have registered and voted. This is one of the reasons why they're doing better with new voters on the frequency tab. Eleven days of early voting remain in Nevada. The sheet is updated, and I will update Clark's frequency totals in the morning. docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Miami-Dade County has completed its off-year voter roll maintenance, and this morning, it shed 172,747 voters from its active rolls. The change netted Republicans more than 38,000 voters compared to Democrats, and the county has now flipped to Republican by registration. Today marks Republicans' first-ever lead in voter registration in Miami-Dade. Current active voter registration in Miami-Dade: 🔴Republicans - 464,370 🟡Others - 460,783 🔵Democrats - 440,790

Another day, another 254,401 votes banked in North Carolina. 3.62 million votes have been cast, nearly two-thirds of the expected final total. 🔴Republicans - 1,230,530 🟡Others - 1,208,335 🔵Democrats - 1,183,954 Like yesterday, 'Others' ruled the day, but they did so convincingly this time. Republicans lead this group by just over 22,000 votes, and the trend suggests that by the time we're finished, the Orange team will be at the top. Also like Georgia, a greater share of the vote is shifting away from the white & black demos towards the 'Others.' Three more days of early in-person voting remain. In NC, we're tracking toward an R+1 - R+3 electorate (compared to Democrats). When all the votes have been counted, 'Others' will likely finish in second place. NC Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - September 2024

The 14th and final day of Nevada's early in-person voting has concluded. We've crossed the million voter mark (1,026,112 to be exact), representing roughly 75% of the expected vote cast. 🔴Republicans - 393,811 🔵Democrats - 344,539 🟡Others - 287,762 Republicans close the early voting period in Nevada going a perfect 14/14, winning today's vote by a total of 1,977. 🔴49,272 raw vote lead 🔴+4.8% current electorate Over the next three days, Democrats will cut into the Republican edge as the state will be in "mail-only" mode. Rurals + Washoe will see very little, and Clark County will see only a little more than that, but Democrats will draw nearer before election day. Morning mail + Clark frequency scores will be updated on Saturday afternoon. NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Who doesn't love a little Nevada voter frequency in the afternoon? The new Clark County voter registration file has been posted, and we can match 99.94% of all ballots to the proper voter history. Same-day registrations were added, and Republicans in Clark gained a net of 3,147 new voters. With the update, Republicans now have raw vote leads in both new and low-frequency voters. Both parties are getting low on their 3/3 voters. New independent voters are just happy to be here.

Bad certification @vaELECT While working on my Virginia election turnout report, I encountered an error in Rockingham County. They've double-counted their mail absentees. The state seems to have certified this mistake, and I'm hoping you can take another look and correct the error. Why am I certain the county has double-counted its mailed absentee ballots? 1. Rockingham only had 3,239 mail ballot requests on file. It is not possible to have generated more than 5,500 mail votes. 2. Rockingham County turnout had a higher rate change than any other in VA (very unlikely). 3. Rockingham County moved further left than any other county (very unlikely). 4. In all previous elections post-COVID elections, Rockingham County received no more than 150 post-election mail ballots, including both 2020 and 2022. 5. When you look through all of the smaller races within Rockingham, it's clear the vote is double counted because every race has at least the same number of mailed absentee ballots as it does post-election ballots. Impossible.

Nevada now has 774,026 voters, representing ~56% of the expected electorate. Eleven days of early voting are in the books, and three remain. 🔴Republicans - 306,905 🔵Democrats - 264,109 🟡Others - 203,012 This evening, a modest amount of mail, combined with a slightly less robust total of Republican in-person early votes, adds 2,698 to the Republican advantage, bringing their edge to 42,796. Republicans in Clark County now have an 11% turnout edge over their Democratic rivals. The Democratic raw vote lead in Clark remains at 4,000 votes. Morning mail + frequency scores will be updated late tomorrow morning. NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Low turnout assured Susan Crawford a W; high turnout offers Brad Schimel a chance. It doesn't mean Republicans will win because, ultimately, turnout only offers a small insight into the outcome, but it does present Republicans with a lifeline.

Part of the reason the margin is closing quickly in PA is the return rate in Philadelphia. If you remember, early on, Philadelphia was one of the big three way out in front in returns. Now Philadelphia is well behind in returns and it doesn't appear it has anything to do with a processing delay. Without Philly pulling it's weight, Republicans are likely to finish ahead in overall return rate.

Arizona frequency was updated today courtesy of @jrodplumb. Republicans now have a ~180,000 ballot advantage heading into the weekend and should end up with over 200,000 before election day. Even though they've made an effort to GOTV early, many registered Republicans not on the absentee mail list are still waiting to vote in person on Election Day. They continue to outpace Democrats in daily margins in all four buckets and might catch Democrats in the 3/3 share when all the votes have been counted. 67% of the expected vote is recorded in Arizona. AZ Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

All party voter registration changes - Month of July 2024

California Voter Registration Update - September 2025

Wyoming Voter Registration Update - May 2025

We now have 2.74 million votes cast in North Carolina, which gets us just over the 50% mark in total expected votes. 🔴Republicans - 939,785 🔵Democrats - 909,992 🟡Others - 890,950 Saturday's in-person vote was a virtual three-way tie. Others led Democrats by ~2,000 votes, and Democrats led Republicans by ~2,000. Overall, margins remain roughly the same, and Republicans maintain a 30k-vote edge. Sunday voting will be light today. Thirty of 100 counties are open, and Democrats are expected to reduce the overall deficit by about a third. Seven days of early voting remain. NC Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - September 2025

Florida Election Day Turnout Update (9:30 am ET) Election Day votes through the first 2.5 hours: 🔴Republicans - 74,769 (63.79%) 🔵Democrats - 32,914 (28.08%) 🟡Others - 9,525 (8.13%) The Republicans' margin will continue to grow through roughly 4 p.m. ET; they bank their best votes just before work ends. After 4 p.m. ET, Democrats begin to peel back a couple of points on the margin, and we're probably going to end up somewhere around Republicans +35% in the 2-way vote share. Overall, today's turnout is abysmal. Rurals are doing quite well, but the populated counties (Broward, Duval, Hillsborough, Dade, etc.) are as low as I've seen on election day.

Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds decides against running for a 3rd term in 2026. Democratic state auditor Rob Sand is likely to declare his candidacy for the seat soon, which would immediately make the '26 IA governor's race a coin flip. In 2022, Sand won his state auditor race while Kim Reynolds and Chuck Grassley won their elections by 18 and 12 points, respectively. His family is also quite wealthy, with nearly $8 million in campaign cash currently available, almost entirely derived from donations made by his wife and in-laws. A democratic Iowa governor in 2 years is very much in play.

Polls are open in Florida. 7:05 am ET - Today is the day Democrats surprise and finally exceed turnout expectations, showing the state is in play and Republicans are in trouble. 7:10 am ET (first check of turnout) - Ah! Well, nevertheless. Maybe next election

The New Jersey Early Voting file is in for 11/02. A massive day for Democrats, who more than doubled their raw vote lead. 🔴Republican In Person - 226,189 🔵Democratic In Person - 253,810 🟡All Others In Person - 135,325 🔵DEM Raw Vote Edge: 27,621 (D +4.49%) Absentee mail saw another ~15,000 ballots added, extending the raw vote Democratic edge to 🔵DEM Absentee Raw Vote Edge: 239,245 Today is the last day of early in-person voting, and it is always the most Democratic friendly; expect even wider margins than yesterday when the final EV report hits tomorrow at noon.

The Miami-Dade flip. 2:20 pm ET.

Total National Voter Registration - September 30th, 2025 (September change by party) 🔴Republicans: +29,431 🔵Democrats: -55,420 🟡Others: +102,241 Ohio removed nearly 375,000 voters from its rolls last month, and the total Democratic edge over Republicans dropped by 0.07%.

Biden almost ... ALMOST broke the bank toward the end when he said people stopped workin' cutting lumber because the unemployment was so .... Generous? Oooo, would I have loved for him to finish that sentence succinctly.

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - August 2025

If you can't wait until the morning to see the racial demographic breakdown of the day #1 Georgia vote, here's a sneak peek (it includes absentees through this point). ⚪White - 57.52% (189,015) ⚫Black - 30.01% (98,805) Total ballots cast - 328,611 Whiter than usual for GA on early voting day #1, but there's plenty of time for that to change—seventeen more EV days to go.

In Pennsylvania, Republicans are racing to the finish line in new requests and daily returns, closing the gap on Democratic margins in both categories. There was a time two weeks ago when the Democratic return rate edge ballooned to 9% over Republicans, but it has now been halved. This is much more a product of "just wait" than anything. Allegheny, Montgomery, and Philadelphia Counties had ballots in the hands of voters while most other counties did not, and as returns came in, they raced to the front. Now, these counties have already reported 75% of the total ballots they're expected to, and with eight more reports coming ... there's very little left outstanding, while rurals and suburbs have a much larger share of outstanding ballots. With an expected large # of requests coming from R's Monday, the return edge won't move very much on the next report, but starting Tuesday, it will work quickly toward zero (and may flip when we're all said and done). This is nothing more than a state that typically has a very close return rate gap between parties being wonky. Ballots were sent to voters on a very different schedule to create the appearance of a D enthusiasm gap early and an R enthusiasm gap down the stretch. Neither is true from a return rate point of view. Voters are returning ballots as they receive them.

North Carolina added 266,000 votes in this morning's report, bringing their total vote to 3.37 million. This represents roughly 62% of the expected electorate. 🔴Republicans - 1,148,634 🟡Others - 1,113,426 🔵Democrats - 1,106,358 In the spirit of Halloween, "The Others" led the day in total votes yesterday, followed closely by Republicans. As expected, Democrats are now third in total turnout and will likely stay there for the remainder of the early voting period. Four days remain to vote early in person, and while we will not reach the 4.63 million early votes we saw in 2020, we should be able to break 4.2 million. Chatham County Democrats continue to lead the way in turnout - the only county party over 60%. (63.73%) NC Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

If you've followed me from the start, you know I don't care for polling. "Throw it in the average" is my go-to line, but you also know I will make an exception for Ann Selzer because I consider her the best. Nobody polls their state better. Quite the poll. Do I think Kamala Harris is going to win Iowa ... no I don't. But do I believe Selzer has picked up on a trend in the midwest that shows Trump losing support among WWC voters, specifically women from 2020? Yes, I do. The idea was always that this was a demographic trend-changing election; Trump was doing better (perhaps a lot better) with minority votes while he bled a bit of white support. A strong Republican sun belt and black belt with a strong Democratic rust belt can co-exist. The extent of this possible cohabitation is unknown, but I urge you to consider a broader range of possibilities we might see on Tuesday. Twenty years of news packed into a nine-month news cycle + J6 + Dobbs might have shaken things up more than just a point here and a point there. Now, with all of that said, throw it into the average.

Nevada Early Voting Update - 10.20 The first of fourteen early in-person voting days has concluded in Nevada, and the total turnout (including mail) by party is as follows: 🔵Democrats - 54,495 🔴Republicans - 52,799 🟡Others - 36,394 Stop me if you've heard this one before, but Republicans dominated the first day of early in-person. What was a Dem+7 margin on day #1 in Clark County in 2020 became a Rep+18% margin yesterday. Party turnout, including mail through day number one, is identical for Republicans and Democrats, and sadly, as expected, Independents are nowhere to be found. Historically, the first day of early voting was the most Democratic in Nevada, but I wouldn't count on this being their "best day" this year. Thirteen days to go; the NV Sheet is updated. docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Our Nevada update this evening totals all activity through 10.22.2024 (mail + EV). Total turnout after the first four days of early voting: 🔴Republicans: 127,978 🔵Democrats: 114,571 🟡Others: 78,029 Republicans were able to log another 700 net voter registrations through same-day registration in the state today. Ten more days of early voting remain. Democrats are expected to fall a bit further behind with each EV report. The three reports just before the election (11/03 - 11/05) will be mail only, and Democrats should be able to net solid gains to bring the turnout closer to level. I expect tomorrow's report at the same time. Sleep well. NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

New Jersey Voter Registration Update - February 2025

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - November 2025

Total change in partisan voter registration since election day, 2024: 🔴Republicans: -104,966 🔵Democrats: -1,305,365 🟡Others: -294,104 Odd-year voter maintenance doin' its thing.

Florida Voter Registration Update - February 2025

The first day of Wisconsin, early in-person voting is in the books, and each candidate has something to like. 🔵Susan Crawford - Turnout for day one was a little light. 34,036 voters showed up, more than double the first day in 2023 but short of what Schimel wants to see. A modest turnout ensures Dane County's oversized influence and prevents R's from running up the numbers in the rural. 🔴Brad Schimel - Where the vote came from yesterday was good news for Republicans. Waukesha led all counties in raw vote turnout (a rarity), and Ozaukee + Washington counties led overall turnout rates compared to previous general elections. If you're a Republican, you love to see where the early vote comes from. If you're a Democrat, you love to see that the volume is modest, at best. Susan Crawford remains in pole position, and early voting continues through Sunday, March 30th. WI Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - January 2025

Florida Early Voting Turnout Update - 10.24 Let's take a quick look at Florida's current turnout. 🔴Republicans - 1,226,213 🔵Democrats - 1,023,418 🟡Others - 568,294 With the start of early voting, Republicans have netted about ~100,000 votes a day. Six additional rural counties will open today, likely keeping that trend going. Hillsborough and Miami-Dade County are expected to flip Republican before the end of the day (and likely stay Republican throughout). Tomorrow, we'll see the same map we'll see after the election—sixty red counties by party turnout and seven blue. Today is also the LAST DAY to request a mail ballot in the state; if you want one, you must do it now. FL Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

New Jersey Voter Registration Update - August 2025

North Carolina Voter Registration Update - May 2025

Iowa Voter Registration Update - August 2025

A quick look at the last seven days of Pennsylvania voter registrations. 🔴Republicans +36,507 🔵Democrats +19,774 🟡Others +17,114 Pennsylvania voter registration closed on Monday, October 21st, but a substantial backlog of entered data came in this week, representing almost all outstanding registrations. The state will publish a closing report any day. Democrats have a 281,081 total registration advantage, which will likely drop slightly before election day as counties complete their data entry. The chart shows the weekly change beginning July 1st; Republicans have net 92,500 registrations over the last four months.

Arizona '24 General Election Turnout Estimate As far as swing states go, Arizona is in a league of its own. Estimated final turnout: 🔴Republicans - 1,300,000 🔵Democrats - 1,025,000 🟡Others - 975,000 ⚫TOTAL - 3,300,000 (R+8.33% electorate) Based on the state's results over the last four years, you wouldn't know it, but Arizona is trending hard R regarding voter registration. When the state publishes its book closing report (likely this week), Republicans will have a registration edge of 300,000 active voters. The edge was 130,000 in the 2020 general election. An example of how registration is not a perfect correlation to votes is that Arizona is likely to have the same electorate (in terms of voter registration) as Florida this year. Arizona R's are not Florida R's, however. Further breakdown of how the number is derived in the thread; you can follow along with the day-to-day returns on the Arizona Sheet. docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

We're just a handful of days away from the Arizona Primary. Current turnout is as follows: 🔴Republicans - 406,768 🔵Democrats - 331,197 🟠Independents - 76,903 (R ballot split = 55.62%) It's unusual for Republicans to have this much of a lead in the early mail vote in AZ; post-COVID, they've been a much heavier election day + drop-off electorate, but their larger-than-ever edge in registrations seems to have room for some early mail voting now. (Smaller counties + Mohave don't report regularly but are up to date with processing and counting) The expectation is still that Republicans will dominate election day and late drop-offs, and they're likely to finish with a turnout rate 5-6% higher than that of Democrats in this primary. To those looking at the AZ-08 Republican primary, the projected turnout is about ~115,000 voters.

PA was kind enough to get the last seven days of voter registration changes published. 🔴Republicans: +12,722 🔵Democrats: +7,641 🟡Others: +7,005 Registration closes in three weeks - October 21st.

In the Pennsylvania update today, Democrats were able to edge Republicans out on daily returns by 687 votes. 🔵Democrats - 849,849 🔴Republicans - 468,067 🟡Others - 155,909 We're sitting at a Democratic +26% return margin, trending downward. Today is the last day to request an absentee ballot or attend your county-designated office to vote in person. Pennsylvania mail must be returned before polls close on election day; now is the time to get it in the mail. PA Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

'Morning Nevada People. Clark's early morning mail + last night's EV is in. Current totals are 🔴Republicans - 242,380 🔵Democrats - 211,436 🟡Others - 154,416 The Republican lead is now 30,994, and the book is closed on Saturday. Six days of early in-person voting remain. 44% of the total expected vote has been cast.

RFK has officially pushed the start of voting season back. No NC ballots can be mailed until his appeal is resolved.

North Carolina Early Voting Update - 10.12 Regular voter registration is now closed in North Carolina, and this was the net change over the last seven days: 🔴Republicans: +11,338 🔵Democrats: +5,436 🟡Others: +14,788 Even though Democrats still have a 115,000 voter registration edge over Republicans, today marks the first day in NC history where Republicans have more active voters than Democrats (by 3,371). The lead in active voters is a big reason why Republicans are expected to outvote Democrats this year in North Carolina. When we look at the absentee requests, demographic and party shares have leveled off to the point where we're no longer going to move much in one direction. The independent request share will rise slightly as the Democratic request share drops, and Republicans will likely end up where they are now. On the returns side, we're still on track to finish with about a Democratic +8% return edge on Republicans, but returns have been slow and will pick up the pace when early in-person voting starts and voters can drop off their ballots.

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - February 2025

Sunday voting in North Carolina is now closed, and the state has added 80,000 votes (mail + in-person). Party turnout with six days remaining is a three-way battle. 🔴Republicans - 961,861 🔵Democrats - 938,180 🟡Others - 920,607 Democrats cut into the Republican lead by roughly 8,000 ballots yesterday. In the final week, Republicans will likely add small increases to their raw turnout lead. 2.82 million votes have been banked, and we've got a shot to see four million before election day (NC will have more early ballots than any swing state). For the final six days, all counties are open for voting. NC Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

100% nonsense. The NV Supreme Court ruled that ballots received before polls close on election day without postmarks can be counted up to three days after the election. Drop boxes will remain a thing in NV; story at 11.

North Carolina crossed the 4MM mark yesterday, with more than 310,000 votes recorded. The current vote total of 4.175 million represents ~76% of the expected vote. 🟡Others - 1,420,766 🔴Republicans - 1,403,106 🔵Democrats - 1,351,772 We have a new leader in the early vote ... Others have taken the top spot, with Republicans close behind and Democrats trailing both. Today is the last day to vote early in person in NC. This will be the final order going into election day but Democrats are expected to pick up votes on Republicans today. 🔴51,334 raw vote lead 🔴+1.2% current electorate NC Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Florida Voter Registration Update - June 2025

Nevada morning mail has been entered, and Clark County frequency scores have been updated. We push ahead with two in-person voting days and three additional mail reporting days before election day. (Sunday morning will have light mail reporting from Clark and Washoe.) The rate at which Republicans turn out voters is still growing day over day compared to Democrats; however, Democrats now have a raw vote lead in the One/Two bucket. In tomorrow's number, they should have a raw vote lead in all three buckets compared to Republicans. Democrats need a more significant velocity increase to cut into the Republican lead; Republicans still have a sizable amount of rural turnout to run through, and at this rate, Clark County Democrats will not be able to keep up. NV Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

A look at AZ voter frequency scores shows that Democrats are trailing Republicans by a couple of points in the zero, one, and two buckets, turning out more of their 3/3 voters. It's not an excellent combination for available votes down the stretch, so Republicans are likely to outvote Democrats by 300,000+. Like Nevada, new independents just aren't tuned in.

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - March 2025

In this morning's Pennsylvania update, the state added 77,000 absentee ballots. 1.55 million votes have been cast, roughly 23% of the expected electorate. 🔵Democrats - 881,779 🔴Republicans - 501,736 🟡Others - 166,613 Republicans won the day in votes added by 1,739. This marks the first day of the EV process (in any year post-COVID) that Republicans outvoted Democrats in a day. Yesterday was the last day to vote in person or request an absentee ballot; we're going back to just mail returns which should be more favorable to the Democratic raw total down the stretch while the overall margin continues to tighten. We will receive four more morning absentee reports from the state, along with one additional report in the afternoon on election day. PA Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

Our final early voting update from Georgia yields just over 300,000 votes tonight. As the trickle of absentee votes continues through election day, Georgia will likely cross 4 million voters and then some. ⚪White - 58.17% (-0.53%) ⚫Black - 26.40% (+0.23%) It was an excellent day for the black vote share; the volume was substantial, and the net margin change was the largest of any day in the early voting cycle. With four million votes, we're rolling into election day with ~80% of the expected vote. If all goes well on election night, Georgia will show us these four million votes within the first hour, and then we're off to the races. I expect the election day vote to be more male than the early vote and a little whiter. Nothing crazy, but both are likely to increase their current shares. I'll have a wrap-up post on Sunday about Georgia EV and why it's THE state to watch. GA Sheet - docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

New Jersey Voter Registration Update - October 2025

North Carolina Voter Registration Update - August 2025

Jon, please have another look; the mail drop cut the Republican's lead by 1,502 ballots. Democrat + 4,743 Republican + 3,241 Independent + 3,057

Pennsylvania Voter Registration Update - October 2025

Florida Voter Registration Update - October 2025