Guys, I want to be completely honest with you.
I no longer hold a position in Coinsilium and will be stepping down from managing the X community.
You may be asking, why?
The truth is, I've become disillusioned with the execution and strategy of the company, and I no longer believe I can justify an allocation to it within my portfolio.
These are the reasons:
I have made it clear from the start, that my primary reason for investing was to support
@btcjvs, who has built up somewhat of a reputation in the industry as a Senior Analyst for CoinDesk.
It appears that for whatever reason, his role in Coinsilium is far less than what I had anticipated. He still works for CoinDesk and it is of my personal opinion, that his involvement has only waned with time, not increased.
For transparency reasons, I spoke with James often at the beginning of Coinsilium's Bitcoin strategy. There was an emphasis on matching or beating Smarter Web's performance in terms of Bitcoin accumulation.
This has of course, failed to come to fruition.
On the 29th of May, Coinsilium had 10 Bitcoin in its treasury, Smarter Web had 83 Bitcoin.
Today, on the 22nd of July, Coinsilium has 112 BTC, whilst SWC has 1600 Bitcoin and £21.5mil in the bank.
This isn't a dig at James, he has no power over how the company is run or when to do equity raises etc, but it seems to me PERSONALLY that his enthusiasm is not what it was. Of course he still works for them and I'm sure he will deny this but it's just what I feel from what I've observed.
I would have never invested or got involved in the company without him being on the team, I'm just being honest.
Moving on to the next reason...
I think Coinsilium have failed to capitalise on its "second mover" advantage in the UK.
As the Bitcoin Treasury scene develops, I have come to the understanding that it's going to be impossible to have many successful "pure" Bitcoin Treasury plays in the UK.
Whilst it is easy to accumulate 100 Bitcoin through retail investment, the next 100-1000 is going to be difficult without institutional investors. To date, Coinsilium has been unable to attract this type of capital.
What that means is that the flywheel is unable to go into effect. There is still no ATM-like feature, and the eventual goal of offering preferred's is impossible without having the 10,000+ BTC collateral to back this up.
Not that they have mentioned anything to do with preferred's, the fixed income market, or seemingly have any understanding of terms such as "BTC yield" or "days to cover mNAV". This is not a dig but they appear to be not as plugged in compared to other executive teams in the space (Eddy and Malcolm, not JVS).
Furthermore, there has been further announcements of other UK-listed Bitcoin Treasury companies which further complicates the path ahead for Coinsilium.
One of them is being seeded with £100mil+, and another appears to have Qatari money involved. With only 112 Bitcoin on the balance sheet, it seems it is only a matter of time before they are pushed out of the top 3 spots in the UK, despite being the second mover.
Unfortunately, this is significant.
The UK is not the US, we are a far smaller market. It is yet to be seen if it's even possible for smaller jurisdictions to support multiple "pure" BTC Treasury plays. How many are realistically going to have the trading volume to run a ATM or stack enough Bitcoin to offer preferred's to eat the fixed income market?
I'm wagering not many.
Smarter Web (SWC) have capitalised on their first mover advantage and it's going to be difficult for anyone to catch them at this stage. This matters.
Finally, I want to move on to the final reason.
Opportunity cost.
I never expected Coinsilium to compete with SWC to be honest, but at a low market cap, I knew there was money to be made. My average buy in price was roughly £0.03. The risk was minimal and at the time with Coinsilium being the second mover, it seemed like a reasonable bet to take.
However, as aforementioned, the landscape has changed. I have been consolidating my portfolio to start moving back into quality.
It is hard to justify allocating to Coinsilium when you have the likes of SWC and Metaplanet out there. This is not financial advice but I think it's prudent to stick to picking 1 horse per jurisdiction, it doesn't make sense otherwise in my opinion.
Given the UK context now, I personally would rather invest in Canada's first mover LQWD for my low market cap "moonshot"
Coinsilium has 112 Bitcoin and is currently at a £37mil market cap. LQWD has 238 Bitcoin and is currently at £61mil market cap.
The difference is, one has a real shot at being the premier Bitcoin Treasury company in their jurisdiction whilst the other has next to no chance of being so.
There are many other things I could say, but this post is getting long now.
Ultimately, my investment thesis for Coinsilium has changed considerably. Will they be able to reach 1000 Bitcoin and 10x in price? I hope so. I still want them to win, but for this epoch I will be placing my bets elsewhere.
I will let @EuropeHODL manage this community now, and if need be I'll still be overseeing and pinning any important information. As the admin I'm not sure if I can transfer this position but if anyone from the community is interested in being a moderator, please do message me.
~Zynx