The problem with the βjust win your gamesβ argument is that itβs more impressive to be a 2-loss team when your 5 toughest games are #4, 5, 6, 8, and 12 than it is to be a 1-loss team when your 5 toughest games are #15, 22, 38, 58, and 76.
Those are true statements.
Heβll be able to shift the model more to HS as he keeps winning more and more games. Hard to get the HS kids you need to win until youβve built a foundation of consistently winning.
Folks donβt want to compete for spots anymore and then they want to cry and blame the coaching staff. Compete a little harder at practice and maybe youβll get to play a little more.
That would be one insane slate of games with some crazy tight outcomes!
But I think B1G is favored in 3/5 on neutral field.
OSU>Texas
UGA>Oregon
Bama>Penn State
Indiana>Oklahoma
Illinois>Missouri
βIt's our plan to have our athletic program comparable to USC, to Notre Dame, to Alabama, to anybody in time,β
Jerry Falwell said this before kickoff of Liberty's first game in 1973.
Will this vision be achieved?
Let me know what you think Liberty fans.
#Liberty#Flames
To all the Oregon fans that are pissed at ESPN for these percentages, you guys would be mathematical underdogs in all of your 3 games. Blame the stupid format for giving the only team that went undefeated the toughest route. Don't blame the people who are putting out pretty accurate data.
Clay was right though about him absolutely nailing the answer! Freeman is so good with words. I would absolutely run through a brick wall for that guy!
Caiden, donβt stress man. I signed in May of my senior year. There were a lot of times that I questioned whether my career was over because, like you, I watched all of my buddies signing early. Youβre a good player. Your time will come and you will make the most of it.
Thereβs a simple rule that fixes this that coaches can implement. If youβre over a 5-flat to first, you come out of the game. The rule stays in place even on HRβs.
Heβll probably start over JuJu. JuJu will be 17 years old next season, but people should take the DeQuan Finn precedent seriously. Recognize when youβre in a good spot!
Yeah, obviously. I would recommend two rules that have worked well for me. 1. Never discuss playing time with parents. Players need to grow up and have the courage to come to you. 2. When they come to you, they need to be able to tell you why they DESERVE to play.
Yep! Makes sense! πThey wonβt send a π team to the FCS playoffs, because it coincides with finals but they will send βΎοΈ to national tournament despite it coinciding with finals.
2024 Ohio State didn't "get hot". They were the #1 power rated team in most models for most of the season. They are the only elite team in college football this season. They just happened to lay an egg against their biggest rival.
I say this as a fan of an SEC team - how many of those SEC titles are in large part due to the gatekeeping of either no playoffs or a 4 team playoff? Who's to say 2008 TX Tech, 2011 OK State, 2012 Oregon, 2014 TCU, 2017 Wisconsin, or 2018 OSU wouldn't have gotten hot like 24 OSU?
Based on your thread, it seems that you donβt realize that these are voluntary, consensual choices. No one is forced to play college sports. People choose to play because they enjoy it.
You come across as someone in favor of tyrannical communism.
I have seen a lot people using the blowouts in the #NFL playoffs to validate the 12-team format in #CFBPlayoff. If anything, the blowouts show that there are too many teams in the NFL playoffs. If you finish 14th of 32 teams, you have not earned the right to play for a championship.
UNC beat Duke in that crazy 2OT game, but I still think Duke had the better year. Duke's schedule was tougher top to bottom.
One will always have to wonder how good of a season Duke would have had if Leonard didn't get hurt on the last play against ND. Their D was very solid!
Not to mention, Duke is a top 25 school academically. Itβs highly doubtful he has a NFL career. That Duke degree could turn out to be quite lucrative.
Congrats to @d1_kjay on signing with the Nets. The kid is poised for a very successful career. Heβs a very talented player and has some of the strongest leadership skills I have ever seen.
Yes for 2 reasons:
1. Because it appears no one else in your comments appear to be pulling for them and someone has to show them some love.
2. Because I like Chadwell.
SEC vs B1G super league.
4 divisions of 5 teams. Play your division plus 2 games each from the other 3 divisions for 10. +2 OOC.
14 team playoff. 8 division winners plus 6 at-large. Seeded SEC vs B1G such as:
SEC #1 (BYE)
B1G #4 vs SEC #5
SEC #3 vs B1G #6
B1G #2 vs SEC #7
If we moved the transfer portal to end of the spring, fewer players would transfer. A lot of kids transfer because they're bitter they didn't play much and make a hasty decision. Once they have to time for it to sink in that the guy ahead of them is leaving and they're running with 1st team in spring, they would be alot more willing to stay.
You are correct about the benefits of high-level sports. Unfortunately, travel sports (or at least travel baseball) is not βhigh-levelβ anymore. Itβs actually really, really bad baseball and it has a tendency to teach kids to be self-absorbed.
To all the "put all conference champs in the playoffs" crowd, I would like to remind you that the #15 team in the SEC standings beat the MAC champs 41-6 and the 5th place team in the ACC beat the CUSA champ 49-14.
DeQuan Finn transferring is the perfect example of a lose-lose situation. He is a good reminder that the grass is not always greener in the transfer portal.
Thank you for this! Also, this only includes the players that entered the portal and were able to find a new home. A lot of players end up not playing anywhere. No one ever wants to talk about the downsides for the player. Everyone wants to talk about "player freedom".
Thatβs kind cruel counting UGA game against him. Florida was 6-0 in games where he played the majority of the game. Thatβs a more accurate way to look at it.
Florida isn't a stretch in the slightest. They were a top 10 power rated team in games where Lagway took the majority of the snaps and went 7-0 in those games.
I coached a top 10 pick. He had just turned 18 when he signed. One of the purest hitters in the country. LHH that wore out LC gap. Called me after his rookie ball saying βthey want me to exclusively pull the ball in the air.β He has yet to sniff a 40-man and is playing in Mexico.
If you see someone calling for Ryan Day to be fired, that person is not a serious person and doesnβt actually understand football. Nick Saban had a total of TWO undefeated seasons in his career (2009 and 2020). Winning football games is very hard.
The response that really cracks me up is the βWell, Ryan Day doesnβt win the right games!β
To all of the βexpanded playoffs equals more footballβ crowd. It actually doesnβt. The teams that were predictably thumped yesterday and today in what should have been meaningful games would have still played a post-season game. It would have just been in a bowl that more closely aligned with their abilities.
#Stayat4
That's not accurate. MJJ is the first 5-star recruit that UGA has lost to the portal. AD Mitchell was a 5-star as a transfer, but he was a 3-star out of HS. Most teams are losing starters to the portal. UGA has not had a single starter enter and only had 1 last season.
This is the ultimate DII #CBB schedule! @EULionsMBB (Emmanuel University) is playing a game in SD on Nov. 18 and in PR on Nov. 20!
Also, if you want to see one of the most electric CBB players at any level, check out one of their games and watch @d1_kjay !
I was looking at this for DII basketball. 8 of the 10 leading DII scorers from last season transferred to DI schools. @d1_kjay is an anomaly. He led DII in scoring and has stayed at the same DII for 5 years now.
Truth or Myth: More opportunity for smaller brands in CFB increases the probability of one of them having a "Cinderella" season and winning a Natty.
-Yes, you must win a natty for it to be a "Cinderella" season.
-No, winning a single game in the playoffs does not qualify as a "Cinderella" season.
Smaller brands that have made CFP field (2014-2023):
1. 2022 TCU
2. 2021 Cincy
So, let's assume a smaller brand would have made the 4-team playoff once every 5 years.
Let's get into the math:
-We'll compare 2021 Cincy to 2024 Boise State as both were G5 teams at the time of inclusion.
-2021 Cincy was a 13.5 underdog to Bama. A 13.5-point underdog has roughly a 16.5% (A) chance of winning. We know this because they win roughly 16.5% of the time. Cincy would have been a 12-point underdog to UGA had they beat Bama. As a 12-point underdog, they would have had about a 19% (B) chance of beating UGA. The probability of both A and B occuring for 2021 Cincy is 3.3%
-2024 Boise is an 11-point underdog against Penn State. The chance of Boise beating Penn State is 20.1%. Lets stick with Vegas odds for consistency here. UGA is favored over ND. Let's assume both Boise and UGA win. Boise would be a 12.5-point underdog to UGA. This gives Boise a 17.4% chance of beating UGA. Let's assume the current favorites (Ohio State) on the other side of the bracket win out and play Boise in the NC. I can't find Vegas odds for this hypothetical matchup, so we'll revert to my data. Using my data, Ohio State would be a 16.5-point favorite over Boise. Boise would have an 11% chance of winning this game. The probability of Boise winning all 3 games in this scenario is 0.38%
Conclusion: MYTH
So, in a single season where smaller brands are included in a 4-team format, those teams will have between a 3-4% chance of taking home a Natty. In a 12-team format, the smaller brand has less than half of 1% chance of winning a Natty and that's with the smaller brand getting a bye. If the smaller brand has to survive four games, the odds decrease to less than 1/10 of 1%.
Now, have fun poking holes in my argument!
@PDawg206 @cffmwachsman @CFBNerds@JoshPateCFB@Blain_Crain@JakeCrain_@KFordRatings@aaron_westbury
It's always fun watching someone that no one has ever heard of calling someone else an "overrated loser!" I'm going to assume that Aaron achieved WAY more over a 4-year span than you have in your 60+ years on this planet.
Please stop calling quitting βopting outβ. That is a stupid euphemism. If you are healthy and you donβt play, you did not finish something that you started. By definition, you quit.
#BowlSeason
I donβt think Lincoln Riley is a very good HC, but if I was a QB there is no shot I would go anywhere. Outside of Rattler, Iβm trying to remember the last starting QB he had that didnβt go in the 1st round.
I support NIL 100%. This unlimited transfer bullshit is what is ruining college sports. Go back to having to sit out a year for lateral or upward division transfers. Only exception should be one graduate transfer.
As a rule, there are two types of sports fans.
1) Those who played high-level competitive sports, AND
2) Those who did not.
The 2nd group is the majority and the loudest, but they make comments that expose ignorance.
Examples:
1. "If you want to get into the playoffs, don't lose!"
-See note at bottom
2. "Such and such coach can't win big games!"
3. "That player is trash."
4. Constantly second-guessing decisions of proven successful coaches
5. Calling for the ouster of coaches within their first 1 to 2 seasons at a program
6. Complaining about on-field results with freshman starting at key positions. This is a failure to realize that elite coaches are process-driven as opposed to results-driven.
***They say this with no regard to nuance or understanding that not every schedule is built the same. People who did not play or coach at high-levels lack a concept of how hard winning games is.
This has a max of a zero percent chance of ever passing, but hereβs a fun thought game. How would this work for Ivy League and DIII schools where every player is technically a βwalk-onβ?
Just a wee bit late in getting this out...
Spreads for Semis according to Maven Model:
Orange Bowl:
Notre Dame Favored by 3.1 over Penn State
Cotton Bowl:
Ohio State favored by 2.2 over Texas
#CottonBowl#OrangeBowl
The most fun debate I had this season was with a Kennesaw State fan. My model had them as one of the 3 worst teams in the country this season. They were adamant that they were the 5th worst team in the country. lol
Maven Model Final 2024 Power Ratings:
1. Ohio State
2. Notre Dame
3. Ole Miss
4. Texas
5. Penn State
6. Alabama
7. Oregon
8. UGA
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Miami
12. South Carolina
13. BYU
14. SMU
15. Louisville
16. Clemson
17. Arizona State
18. Iowa
19. Colorado
20. Minnesota
If I were a SC fan, Iβd be pissed too, but letβs not pretend the officiating is terrible in an effort to fix games. Itβs terrible for large part because of how the rules are written. UGA got screwed pretty hard too and it easily could have cost them their game.
Can we please come to a consensus that the AP poll is not a serious or reliable method of ranking teams? I love tradition as much as anyone when it comes to college football, but these rankings are nonsense every week and it has material effects on the sport.
@JoshPateCFB
Takes like this are part of what's wrong with the current state of CFB. FBS is not designed to stuff 32 teams into a postseason. It's designed to have the best regular season of ANY sport and for teams to take a ton of pride in winning the "Cheerio Bowl." Dave Portnoy may not have cared about that game, but every player playing in that game most certainly did!
Florida went 5-0 this season in games where Lagway played the majority of the game and they averaged 35 points per game.
My power rating model has them as the 8th best team in the country with him at QB.
FIU at Liberty:
-Current Spread: (-17)
-Most Probable Outcome: Liberty 31 - FIU 24
-Liberty has a 67.7% chance of winning
***My personal take is that this one could get ugly quickly in Liberty's direction. The model has the game close because Liberty has played a bunch of close games against weaker opponents.***
Team pages
πππ
mavenpredictions.com/libertyβ¦mavenpredictions.com/fiu-panβ¦#CFB2024@aaron_westbury @FTFFootballPod @theotherJerryLU@SSN_Flames