"Derivatives, are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal”-W Buffett; tweets are not fincl advice
NYC Manhattan
- Tweets 30,523
- Following 777
- Followers 62,841
- Likes 5,527
So, if @ZohranKMamdani requests gov't handouts for poor people in NYC, its socialism/communism. Yet, if @OpenAI literally does the SAME THING to fund its massive/reckless investments in AI, which will kill millions of American jobs, it's NOT? #makeitmakesense
BREAKING: OpenAI is requesting US government support to help guarantee financing for the massive investments in AI chips and data centers it needs for expansion, per Bloomberg.
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I used to work at a fast food restaurant in high school (Dad/Mom made me walk two miles to and from work to save up $1.5K to buy my first car). He’s not high. He hasn’t slept. I fell asleep while standing working that drive thru many times. Worst summer of my life. White Castle.
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Hey @neelkashkari… why is the Fed lending money to Blackrock at 0.05% to go out and buy houses (i.e., compete against poor people), vs. poor/middle-class Americans who are forced to take home loans out at 4-5%? Is this not the definition of inequality?
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1/6 What if I told you the CPI surprise yesterday was partially due to a periodic adjustment, that won't be reflected in the Fed-favored "core PCE" that comes out right ahead of the Dec. Fed meeting? Well, that's JUST what happend. That is, the CPI for health insurance (which...
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Rate of job openings collapsing... more than we've seen in any of the past three recessions. WE. ARE. ALREADY. IN. A. RECESSION. AND. STOCKS. ARE. AT. ALL. TIME. HIGHS.
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The 30yr fixed mortgage rate just passed 5% for the 1st time since '11. Thus, w/ the avg. home price at $511K today, vs. $408K last yr, & the 30yr fixed mortage rate at 5.02% today vs. 3.32% a yr ago, the avg. cost of a mortage is $2,138/month now vs. $1,129a yr ago (+101%). WOW!
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Is it odd for an 81yr old woman to be buying 1yr out-of-the-money call strike options, and hitting a HOME RUN within days on policy she likely had MNPI on? No idea. I have NO IDEA.
Pelosi husband gained nearly $5 million on Alphabet stock ahead of vote to advance five antitrust bills targeting major tech giants hill.cm/U4agogG -husband-won-big-on-alphabet-stock
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Is the #AI bubble popping right before our very eyes?
Microsoft Abandons More Data Center Projects, TD Cowen Says - Bloomberg
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Question for the AI bulls. The US currently has ~5,426 data centers, and is investing billions to build more. China has ~449 data centers, AND IS NOT ADDING. If AI is real, why isn't China building 000s of data centers every month (which they could CLEARLY do)? Thoughts? $NVDA
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This, my friends, is a recession level amount of jobs cut. When you get >10K from the big boys, it's time to begin worrying. Think about it... AI CAPEX spending is holding up the US economy. Yet, all the AI hyperscalers employ what... 1.8mn people, vs. the US goods sector, that is collapsing, and employs ~33mn. This is NOT sustainable.
$AMZN - AMAZON TO CUT 30,000 CORPORATE JOBS
Amazon plans to lay off up to 30,000 corporate employees starting Tuesday to reduce costs and address pandemic overhiring, sources say. The cuts affect nearly 10% of its 350,000 corporate staff, marking Amazon’s largest round of layoffs since 2022.
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Weren’t they supposed to travel on skates underground? And, HOW is this better than an electric underground train/monorail?
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It's very simple. @SecYellen recklessly issued a massive amount of short-duration bonds recently, which worked to drain the overnight RRP account (i.e., excess QE $ from 2020-22), driving U.S. liquidity higher and thus pushing risk assets higher (as that liquidity purchased stocks indiscriminately). If incoming Tres. Sec. S. Bessent does what he says he'll do, and issues longer duration debt to satisfy coming maturities, that will work to actually drain liquidity from markets as bank reserves will be used to buy debt vs. buy stocks. This will be (very) bad for risk assets.
Can some explain to me (stupid day trader) why 7 trillion in debt refinancing next year will crash the market but the 7 trillion in debt refinancing in 2024 didn’t crash the market?
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Hey @elonmusk... are you aware that the gov't was NEVER, EVER meant to be run like a Silicon Valley start-up company. Why? In short, its bottom line isn’t profit margins, it’s people. The notion that the gov't should be run like a business is an absurd one, AT BEST.
Musk: If a commercial company operated the way the federal government does, then it would be -- immediately go bankrupt. It would be delisted. The officers would be arrested
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1/4 US Treasury yields are likely headed WAY, WAY higher. Why? Well, three reasons, namely: (1) the two largest historical buyers of US Treasury debt are net sellers currently, and Europe's holdings are also now falling too, (2) Trump's Treasury Secretary...
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MY GOD... the 30yr fixed mortage rage just hit 5.64%, up ~255bps YoY. With the avg. home price at $511K now vs. $408K last year, the avg. cost of a mortgage is now $2.759K vs. $1.759K a yr ago (up 60% YoY). Can you say housing crash in 3... 2... 1... (thank you @federalreserve)!
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AOC... I hear you, but coordinated manipulation of stocks is illegal. We all hate WallStreet, but allowing illegality to hurt them is NOT the answer.
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So the US gov't can spend it wisely? How's that going? $2.2tn on CARES Act + $2.3tn on COVID relief + $1.9tn on "Rescue Act" + $1.2tn on BIF = $7.6tn in 20 months, or $380bn/month. Yet, Oct. productivity was -5% while Labor Costs were +8%, & 3Q GDP was flat w/ SURGING inflation😒
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18/18 Why does nearly everyone at @CNBC (i.e., @JoeSquawk/@andrewrsorkin), @business, and @YahooFinance, to name a few, ignore all this? Seems quite odd.
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1/5 Housing Bubble 2.0 Update. So, today , we learned that real estate investors purchased -48.6% fewer homes in 1Q23 vs. 1Q22, or the largest annual drop on EVER (i.e., the "smart money" is seeing a record collapse in demand). Oh, and the number of units purchased also...
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1/2 The US economy is likely already in, or on the brink of, recession. The U.S. stock market's strength is masking this reality; but, the jobs data shows the reality of it all. This will likely become clear to the masses 3-to-4 months into Trump's term. Trump's...
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BREAKING: IN APRIL, $TSLA'S SALES IN THE NETHERLANDS, U.K., SWITZERLAND, SWEDEN, SPAIN, PORTUGAL, AND DENMARK ARE DOWN -73.7% YOY, -65.1% YOY, -59.5% YOY, -80.6% YOY, -34.7% YOY, -33.0% YOY, AND -67.2% YOY.
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2/18 Musk has hinted $TSLA will have robotaxis, “next year”, every year, for nearly a decade, which $TSLA still hasn’t achieved; yet, $TSLA has used that promise to raise billions in capital from investors, again, for nearly a decade (piped.video/watch?v=zhr6fHmC…).
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1/15 Is the US housing bubble 2.0 about to "pop"? Well, first, we'll note that applications for home purchases are among the best leading indicators for the real estate market - i.e., potential buyers try to get pre-approved for a mortgage, then lock in a rate, and then start...
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3/18 Faking the largest leveraged buyout in the history of the stock market by saying he had “funding secured” to go private (at a much higher stock price than where the stock was trading at) when he didn’t (cnbc.com/2022/04/16/elon-mus…).
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4/18 The doctored “Paint it Black” video from 2016, which claimed the “car is driving itself”, which we now know was not true (businessinsider.com/tesla-fa…).
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Every black child has seen that “finger”. And it has a devastating/debilitating impact on one’s ability to respond. And everyone also knows when the “finger appears”, you SHUT UP.
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While everyone is focused on how great earnings are for the Mag 7, & equating this to a strong US economy, for the 384/1946 companies who make up the Russell 2000 that have reported Q4 earnings, QoQ growth is down a jaw-dropping -53%. Maybe... things are about to get REALLY bad.
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6/18 Filed a 13G instead of a 13D in association w/ his acquisition of twitter, which is credibly alleged to be a violation of securities rules (theguardian.com/technology/2…).
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9/18 Said SpaceX was working on ventilators at the beginning of the COVID scare (NOT ONE VENTILATOR, that was used by a patient, has been produced by $TSLA to this day) - elonmusk.today/#breathing-in….
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1/4 For all of those asking why #Bitcoin and other memes, alt coins, etc. are skyrocketing higher📈, the @federalreserve is currently doing de facto QE by letting the excess 💸 they printed 2020-21 that was sitting dormant in the RRP account to buy @SecYellen's bonds. Yes,...
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7/18 Forcing his CA workers back to work, on cars, at the height of the COVID scare, against gov’t orders - forbes.com/sites/bryanrobins….
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8/18 Said he would have 1mn robotaxis on the road in the year 2020 in 2019, which he used to raise billions of dollars, despite credible allegations this would not happen (i.e., there are still 0 robotaxis on the road, and it’s nearly 2H25) - bloomberg.com/news/articles/….
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5/18 Showing a fake solar panel on the set of Desperate Housewives (i.e., a fake house) to sell the $SCTY acquisition to $TSLA investors (businessinsider.com/solarcit…).
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16/18 Said @DOGE would cut $1.5tn/yr in spending, and then adjusted that figure down to $150bn, or a 10x decrease, but not before cutting the jobs of people at @NHTSAgov investigating $TSLA's full-self-driving claims. msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show…
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10/18 Said all $TSLA supercharger stations in CA, for which he subsequently got BILLIONS in gov’t subsidies, funded by U.S. taxpayers, would have powerpacks “within a few weeks” to help with blackouts (there are currently NO POWER PACKS) - elonmusk.today/#powerpack-ch….
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1/12 U.S. housing collapse 2.0 update. Home sales have collapsed to lows not seen since the last housing bust, & buyers (from both the cash side & investing angle) are simply saying... NO THANKS! That is, when looking at Nov. sales of all types of housing (condos + co-ops +...
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17/18 Claimed @DOGE saved $8bn in one contract, when it was actually $8mn. nytimes.com/2025/02/18/upsho…
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Buying underwater debt (i.e., debt worth less than par) at 100% of par, from banks that took negligent risk, is absolutely a bailout. Who do they think they’re kidding? Really?
SENIOR US TREASURY OFFICIAL: THE FIRMS ARE NOT BEING BAILED OUT, INSTEAD THE DEPOSITORS ARE BEING PROTECTED.
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12/18 Was credibly accused of “horrific” racism against black employees at his car plant(s) - latimes.com/business/story/2….
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11/18 Said the breaks on $TSLA’s cars would “never need to be replaced” (this has proven to be untrue) - nitter.app/elonmusk/status/107801….
This is incorrect. Vast majority of vehicle motion is returned to the battery, as the electric motors act like a generator in reverse. Brake pads on a Tesla literally never need to be replaced for lifetime of the car.
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14/18 Said he would fund fixing the water in any house in Flint that was contaminated (he did NO SUCH THING, and rather purchased a few water purification systems, which does NOT solve the problem) - elonmusk.today/#flint-water-….
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Inflation is 50% above the Fed's target, and rising. Furthermore, core CPI has been above 3% since 2021, yet you are arguing for rate cuts? Are you mad?
Jerome Powell (in June): We're refusing to cut interest rates because "everyone I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation from tariffs."
July CPI: Came in below expectations once again.
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#bitcoin and ALL OF CRYPTO is nothing more than a legalized Ponzi scheme. It’s 🐀 poison with no intrinsic value. It’s a scam.
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1/4 Want to know why the mkt spiked after the initial sell-off TODAY? Well, today, as happens nearly every day, just 2 ODTE ("zero day to expiry") options, given their 0.51/0.62 deltas, are responsible for ~80% of the volume in the SPY today. That is, taking:...
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13/18 Said $TSLA would have a one-hour body shop, which it still doesn’t, in 2018 (elonmusk.today/#one-hour-bod…).
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The entire industry is a massive ponzi scheme. It creates NOTHING, meaning the billions being poured into it destroy capital. It's amazing.
Rarely in American politics has a new industry spent so much money, with such apparent impact, as the cryptocurrency business did in the last election. This Sunday, Margaret Brennan reports on the industry's hopes for the new “pro-crypto” administration. 60Minutes.com
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1/5 So, the @federalreserve has allowed inflation expectations to become COMPLETELY unhinged, yet again, which means, soon, a surge in inflation is coming to a grocery "shelf" near you/me. Yet, instead of the folks who "have a voice" demanding to know why J. Powell...
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So, we, the taxpayers, dealing with BACK BREAKING inflation, homes/rents we can’t afford, and declining job prospects (while companies buy back trillions in their own stock), should be forced to bail out millionaire gamblers… AGAIN?
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15/18 Said $TSLA’s cars can drive themselves with a broken motor, which appears not to be true (elonmusk.today/#broken-motor…).
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1/3 Wow. Global liquidity was SMASHED lower this week. That is, the Fed's bal. sheet fell -$42.6bn week-over-week ("WoW"), while the ECB's bal. sheet fell -$511.3bn WoW, w/ the BoJ's bal. sheet falling -$133.3bn WoW (the bal. sheets for the BoE + PBoC + BoK + BoC + BCB + SNB...
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This presser by Powell was extremely reckless. He is basically saying he is not data dependent, and will cut rates and slow QT, even if infaltion goes higher and jobs are plentiful. At some point, bond investors will disregard the @federalreserve, and demand higher yields to compensate for what is clearly pending higher inflation. This is the danger of Powell being reckless, for the bulls that is (i.e., that the market disregards them), and today, he was EXTREMELY RECKLESS.
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Is everyone aware that the former CFO of $TSLA just sold ~$463mn worth of $TSLA stock? Did everyone see that in the proxy? So... for all the reporters asking me why $TSLA executives are leaving... with $TSLA's op. margins imploding, this COULD be your answer.
Community note
The attached excerpt shows options exercised and stock vested — not sales.
In 2023, Tesla's former CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn, sold a total of 44,111 shares for a combined value of $8,976,515.
According to the most recent SEC Form 4 filing, Mr. Kirkhorn retains 193,790 shares.
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
openinsider.com/screener?s=&o=
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6/6... question you must ask yourself is: "Does the Fed not know all of this already, and fear the coming re-inflation of the energy space given the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ("SPR") drawn-down will likely end soon given the elections are OVER"? Hmmmm...
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1/11 So... is Housing Bubble 2.0 about ready to pop? Well, looking at the data, it sure seems that way. That is, there now seems to be a massive supply of new homes for sale, in all stages of construction, given there's over 9 months' of supply (or the highest since May 2010,...
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Hey @elonmusk is it true that the $TSLA semi has a full load range of *just* 100 miles vs. 700-960 miles for an ICE Truck? And don’t your trucks cost ~$500K vs. ~$100K for an ICE truck? Question? Who in their right mind will buy your truck? reuters.com/business/autos-t…
Community note
The referenced article doesn’t make that claim: “…for heavier loads of sodas, the trucks will initially do shorter trips of around 100 miles…”, but “…will also use the Semis to haul beverages in the ‘400 to 500 mile range…”
reuters.com/business/autos
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1/9 So what's a spiking SOFR rate mean? Well, we saw something similar in 2019, & it was caused by a combination of: (1) qtrly corporate tax payments that were due Sep. 16, which were withdrawn from bank & money market mutual fund ("MMF") accounts that went to the Treasury's...
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1/9 US Housing Bubble 2.0 Update - the bubble IS bursting as supply rises, sales plunge, cash sales implode (i.e., even investors are pulling back), & prices drop the most since 2012. So... despite the fact it's the spring selling season, or the best time of the year to sell a...
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1/2 Why does rising inflation (i.e., CPI) mean little for US stocks? Simple. The Fed is actively allowing QE to happen right now, by allowing the $ they printed into the RRP account 2020-22 to drain, which is being used to buy @SecYellen's bonds.
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Wow... the Reverse Repo ("RRP") account fell another ~$50bn... JUST TODAY. At this rate, it will be gone by the end of Jan. 2024. The RRP is de facto QE-infinity $ printed during 2020-21 that was sitting dormant. It's now being used to buy up @SecYellen's bonds (this is QE).
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1/17 The @federalreserve's ONLY mandate at present, using the evidence, is to print money out of thin air to thwart ANY dysfunction in the US Treasury market (which is VERY inflationary) a 🧵.
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These aren't audits. They aren't going line by line and deciding what's good and what's not. The people he's hired are not forensic accountants, and there's been no ACTUAL fraud unveiled. They are simply criticizing the items they don't like and calling them fraud (they aren't fraud). What's happening is NOT an audit, it's political. Let's audit by all means, but let's do it honestly.
DOGE will begin auditing the Department of Labor, which includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Here we go
#MacroEdge
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Wow… so it’s been confirmed the Optimus “robots” at $TSLA’s event (the ones talking to people) were being controlled by humans, w/ humans even doing the talking for the “robots”. Why isn’t this getting more press attention? How is this diff. than what Trevor Milton did?
For the record I got one of the staff to confirm it was a human behind it after asking it a difficult math question 🤓
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$TSLA... so excl the $936M in Bitcoin sales at $30K/coin (EVERYONE, INCL. US, ASSUMED THEY TOOK A LOSS FROM BITCOIN IN Q2), or the SAME amount it was valued at exiting 1Q22, TSLA's FCF was -$315M and its GAAP-EPS was $1.64/shr - i.e., their core biz is burning cash. Interesting.
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Hey @federalreserve… why are you forcing us depositors to put our money at $JPM at an annual rate of 0.2%, when $JPM gets 4.5%, BY PARKING THAT SAME MONEY WITH YOU (via the IOER)? Why not allow us to park money directly with you? This seems like “out-in-the-open” theft, no?
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1/11 Banks are in a pretty bad spot when considering the unrealized losses on securities at FDIC-insured commercial banks rose +$42.9bn to $558.4bn in 2Q23 (+8% QoQ), following two consecutive months of declines. Stated differently, of the $5.089tn in total securities held by...
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Why does everyone losing money say: “The market is broken”. Yet, when they were making money they were smart and well informed. The market is NEVER broken. It’s simply a weighting mechanism.
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If burning Teslas make you furious, but watching thousands of federal workers get stripped of their jobs, healthcare, and pensions doesn’t move you—YOU are the problem.
If scorched cars spark more outrage than billions being slashed from cancer research, humanitarian aid, education, and support for the most vulnerable—your moral compass is broken.
This ain’t about Teslas. It’s about twisted priorities, cold-hearted politics, and willful ignorance.
Silence in the face of suffering is complicity. Miss us with your fake outrage.
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Well... looks my my $TWTR account is days away from being suspended permanently (for no apparent reason). It's been nice chatting with you all here. GOOD LUCK!
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1/12 Why $TSLA's stock is going up, daily, a thread. So, around the time $TSLA reported deliveries, the ratio of puts vs. call options being purchased increased materially. Don't believe me? Simply go to barcharts.com, load up $TSLA's ticker, and click on put/call...
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Super core PCE inflation EXPLODED higher on a MoM basis to +0.596%, or basically the HIGHEST EVER (showing the @federalreserve is NO WHERE NEAR restrictive, & NO WHERE near its goal of +2%). Yet, the Fed is talking rate cuts, and the market is cheering today's inflation data? 🤔
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US tech is rallying today; but, CDS (the cost to insure against risk) for the "speculative AI plays" is up... and up quite a bit today. Recall that during the GFC, the banks' stock prices would rally, but the CDS continued higher (the CDS proved to be right in the end). $ORCL
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Needs to be said; @Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme (our opinion) & unregulated security that cannot create real $ b/c unlike a stock there is no underlying asset that generates income; for each winner, there are MULTIPLE losers. As smart $ exits, the bubble will collapse spectacularly.
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1/12 Services inflation is the new boogeyman, driving the "runaway inflation train", & it seems thoroughly entrenched. So, what happened today? Well, while energy prices (gasoline in particular) plunged, "core CPI", which excludes food & energy, jumped, & service inflation...
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1/3 While the collective world thinks Evergrande is the only Chinese developer at risk, they are wrong - i.e., Evergrande is not unique nor is it the first. That is, looking at the 10 Chinese developers below, interestingly, combined, the names (each in default or significant...
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I thought QE was over? They (@federalreserve) said it ended 3/11/22; yet, they (the @federalreserve ) brought another $2.018bn in MBS today? WTH? Thoughts @neelkashkari @DiMartinoBooth @TimDuy @LHSummers @elerianm
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Not ego driven at all. And, I wish you the best in your #Bitcoin "investment" - after all, a LOT of people made a LOT of money during 1636-37 Tulip mania. I am, however, a student of economics, and economic history. And, history shows, private currencies, which #Bitcoin would be given it's not issued by the state, have ALWAYS been disasters, due, mainly, to fraud. Furthermore, ANYONE arguing for #Bitcoin , is, de facto, arguing for the US dollar to lose its reserve currency status, which would likely cause the LITERAL collapse of the USA via hyper-inflation. Beyond my views that #Bitcoin , as the late/great Charlie Munger said, is INDEED "RAT POISION", I LOVE THE USA. 🇺🇸 🪖🫡
The fun thing about #bitcoin is that understanding it is NOT about how intelligent you are.
You can be intelligent and still dismiss it because you can not handle the fact that everything you think you know about "money" is WRONG.
Not a nice thing to realize. It is very uncomfortable.
When I see clearly intelligent people like @GordonJohnson19 be so wrong, I can't help but feel sorry for him because he is clearly trapped in ego-driven thinking - conflating #bitcoin with "crypto" when I asked him to prove BITCOIN was a ponzi - but that is all ok.
MY REACTION:
"I said #BITCOIN, not "crypto". It was to check if you did your homework and study, which you did not. Clearly.
Bitcoin is a public, decentralized, a-political, a-religious, permissionless, trustless, digital monetary technology that is ultimately transparent and can be audited 24/7. There is no double spending, there is no fake Bitcoin, there are no perverse incentives. Contrary to the fiat world you apparently love.
It solves the problem of third-party influence over the (fiat) "money) that people use to exchange value. The value of that money is debased on purpose. With Bitcoin and its provable finite supply of 21.000.000 units (divisible by 100.000.000 sub-units), this will not happen. It is actually impossible.
Bitcoin is deemed a commodity in the US.
Bitcoin is a PUBLIC and DECENTRALIZED asset, which can also act as a currency.
The fraud in CRYPTO was perpetrated by CENTRALIZED actors like @SBF_FTX (who donated his fraudulently earned money to the @TheDemocrats) and others. This has NOTHING to do with Bitcoin, as NOBODY central owns or rules over Bitcoin.
You are intelligent enough to understand this and I would advise you to study more. More importantly, you should recognize that your strong opinion on Bitcoin is flawed and ego-driven, and that besides studying Bitcoin, understanding it also involves a personal reflection on what you think/feel is true in the fiat money world.
Happy to talk further and help you out."
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1/2 MY GOODNESS was the 5yr UST-bill auction today an utter DISASTER. What do I mean? Well... MASSIVE tail + huge fall-off in indirect demand = D- grade. And, to think, @SecYellen still has around $2tn left to issue, and China is talking about SELLING UST bonds.
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Maybe she doesn’t believe in your fake internet money that serves no purpose other than to speculate/commit crimes?
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These aren't audits. They aren't going line by line and deciding what's good and what's not. The people he's hired are not forensic accountants, and there's been no ACTUAL fraud unveiled. They are simply criticizing the items they don't like and calling them fraud (they aren't fraud). What's happening is NOT an audit, it's political. Let's audit by all means, but let's do it honestly.
That was one of the most incredible political press conferences I’ve ever seen.
Trump + Elon standing in the Oval Office, telling the American people directly what they are doing… basic financial management of our out of control spending.
“This isn’t optional, it’s essential.”
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So let me get this straight... when ANY stocks falls, its market manipulation by evil short sellers; yet, when the same stock is up, via ODTE calls, 50% in a few days, it's simply a bull market? Do I have this right? Good!
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True story: I have never once been called the “n-word” on Twitter. Since Musk has taken over, it’s happened 3 times, and someone just called me a “f@g”. The SHEER ANGER/RAGE I get when someone uses the “n-word” cannot be overstated.
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1/7 Why have stocks staged a massive rally recently? The explanation is actually quite simple. More specifically, in four words, there has been: massive U.S. monetary stimulus. That is, over the past week as of 1/11/23, when looking at the three key drivers of U.S. stock mkt...
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The stock market is cheering a worsening job market b/c the @federalreserve will come in and "stimulate", giving Wall Street more money, paid for by inflation for the masses. Wall Street is now cheering Main Street job losses, and EVERYONE is acting like this is a good thing. #thiswontendwell
81
62
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He, like you, used "big words"/grift to take billions from unsuspecting normal folks - i.e., he pumped a drug, via editing trail results, & then pumped a stock he sold billions in before it collapsing >90%. If he wins, we are ALL IN BIG TROUBLE. Great nations should not be led by grifters.
54
24
510
34,816