Let's break it down.
India won 28 gold medals in Asian Games. Where these medals came from:
11 of them came from sports which were not even in Paris Olympics including:
- 5 from Compound Archery
- 2 from Squash
- 2 from Cricket
- 2 Kabaddi
Among other 17 gold medals:
- 6 came from Athletics: Asia as a whole is poor in Athletics compared to other continents. For context, China won 19 gold medals in Athletics at 2022 Asian Games, but they won just 1 gold at the Paris Olympics.
(Commonwealth Games is a much competitive event and better benchmark for Athletics due to presence of England, Australia, Jamaica, Kenya etc.)
- 7 came from Shooting. Now this is where it gets ironical. Shooting is very strong in Asia, and Indian contingent should win more at the Olympics in shooting. At the same time, 3 of our medals came from shooting, which feels like an achievement. We did decent, but we should be doing even better at the Olympics in shooting at least.
- Rest 4 gold medals came from Badminton, Tennis, Hockey and Equestrian.
Men's Hockey team did well to win Bronze in Paris and only 2 European teams finish above them. We underperformed in Badminton, Satwik-Chirag (gold medal at Asian Games) should have done better. In other two events, it was again a mismatch in Asian Games level and the Olympics level.
Now, let's do analysis on Uzbekistan. This time let's go in reverse, let's see from where did they got their 8 golds at Paris Olympics:
Uzbekistan, formerly a part of USSR, traditionally focuses on 5 sports for the Olympics (Boxing, Wrestling Judo, Taekwondo and Weightlifting). The level of all these 5 sports at the Asian Games is very high (due to presence of China in Weightlifting and Women's Boxing, Japan in Judo, South Korea in Taekwondo, Japan, Iran and Kazakhstan in Wrestling and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in Men's Boxing) and if you win a gold there, then you have a good shot at a medal at the Olympics too.
- 5 came from Men's Boxing.
Uzbekistan won 3 gold medals in men's boxing at Asian Games, and each of those 3 also won gold at the Olympics too. (This is what we expected likes of Sift Kaur and Satwik-Chirag to do, but didn't happen). This is as optimum as it can get. Basically everyone who was best at Asian level, are also best in that sport in the World too.
- 1 came from Wrestling, which is very controversial. Since Russia got banned from the Paris Olympics, most Russian wrestlers switched to ex USSR nations just before the Olympics so that they can participate. The gold medal was actually won by a Russian. (Olympics committee would mostly come with some kind of rule to stop such events in the future)
- 1 came from Taekwondo. Again, Uzbekistan won just 1 gold at the Asian Games in Taekwondo, and the same person won gold at the Olympics too. 100% conversion rate of success.
-1 came from Judo. Uzbekistan won 3 golds in Judo at the Asian games - 1 went on to win gold at the Olympics, 1 won Bronze and 1 other missed a medal.
In conclusion:
- The games we are better in, we are only better at the Asian level, not at the Olympics level. While the games Uzbekistan is better at Asian level, they are also among the best at the Olympics level
- Our Shooting and Badminton contingent could have done better at Paris, while we have talent here, we often falter mentally
- Uzbekistan performed at the most optimum possible level at Paris, that is commendable but mostly not repeatable every single time and was an one-off feat. Kudos to them.