MLB/NFL Fantasy & Betting Analyst (Everywhere) | THE BAT X/THE BLITZ Projections @EV_Analytics @RotoGrinders @FanGraphs | Sabermetrics Guy & Scout School Grad |
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THE BAT X for Sports Betting is now for sale at @EV_Analytics!
🏅Most accurate projections for 6 straight years! (and now utilizing Statcast pitcher data)
💰+340.1 units/12.9% ROI on tracked public bets
📚Compare odds from 20+ books
🎯Easily identify value
Easy-to-use tools + Elite projections + Hours saved = MASSIVE VALUE
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This feels sooooo gross to write, but...
RBs with 90%+ Carry Share
1) Leonard Fournette
2) Christian McCaffrey
RBs with 20%+ Target Share
1) Le'Veon Bell
2) Alvin Kamara
3) Leonard Fournette
RBs with 90%+ Carry and 20%+ Target Share
1) Leonard Fournette 👀
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/THREAD The #SFGiants and #BringTheGold play in Mexico City this weekend and holy shit it's going to be Coors Field on steroids
Here's everything you need to know about the park and the HIGHEST RUN TOTAL THE BAT X HAS EVER PROJECTED...
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Derek Jeter is a for-sure HOFer... but he's a mid- (or maybe even bottom) tier HOFer. People upset that *one* person didn't vote for him might want to look at the dozens of more qualified players who weren't unanimous over the years. Sorry not sorry. #HOF2020
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/THREAD 🧠Everything you need to know about the #Orioles changing the fences at Camden Yards🧠
HEADLINE: These are the BIGGEST changes we've seen to a park in years and they will have a BIG impact
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The #Dodgers have 9 SPs that project better than the *best* SP on 9 other teams.
Yes, you read that correctly. LA has enough aces to nearly fill two rotations.
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HARD TRUTH PSA: Derek Jeter was a straight-up BAD defensive SS. Metrics were terrible, fan scouting grades were bad, and IIRC Tango's WOWY found pitchers did way better w/o him. Bad range meant flashy highlights on balls routine for others and many balls he never got to. #HOF2020
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Guys. We've literally seen this exact thing play out in MLB over the past 20 years. 🤦♂️
Spoiler: the anti-analytics guys lose
Why? Because they are fundamentally wrong and most are too stubborn to learn and adapt.
A coach told me earlier today that analytics was just a way for people who never would have gotten jobs in football to get jobs in football. To understand that is to understand why they get so defensive whenever anyone questions analytics.
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Congratulations to everyone who believed in Derrick Henry. I definitely did not project that happening. I'll just be here today if you need me.
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Top 50 Starting Pitchers in MLB, via THE BAT X
Projected 'True Talent' Context-Neutral ERA
Agree? Disagree? Someone Missing?
1) deGrom
2) Ohtani
3) Strider
4) Kershaw
5) Alcantara
6) Burnes
7) Rodon👀
8) Nola
9) Verlander
10) Urias
(...continued)
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So @TheAthleticFS Fantasy Baseball Magazine just dropped and it's 🔥🔥🔥 -- especially the cover. Ohtani is pretty cool and the projections they're using are supposed to be amazing...
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THE BLITZ Optimal Lineups cashed 73% of 2019 slates! (2018: 71%) 🔥🔥🔥
Top 150 lineups were within 3% of top optimal on slates we tested!
Many subs won big GPP 💰
To celebrate, I'm giving away a FREE 2020 SUB today!
✅Like
✅Retweet
✅Follow
to enter!
rotogrinders.com/articles/th…
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I'm never a screenshot guy, but today was a really good day. Cash lineup scored 300+ points, took 20th in the Milly Maker, and won some smaller GPPs. Very happy tonight 😃
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THE BAT X now projects the #Phillies as the # 2⃣ team in MLB!! 👀👀👀
Schwarber and Castellanos have added 5⃣ WINS to their projection!
*(Way behind Dodgers, a fraction of a win ahead of MIL/NYY/ATL)
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Stunned? Humbled? Excited? Yes! Yes! Yes!
THE BAT X was declared the most accurate original projection system for the ‼️5th‼️ straight year by FantasyPros!
And for the first time ever in 2024, it even came out on top of the aggregate projections that blend it up with other systems! Most Accurate Projection System in Fantasy Baseball. Full stop.🥳🥳🥳
2025 is going to be a big year, and there are several ways you can use THE BAT X to win your leagues and make money...
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MLB Home Run Rates by Year*
2018: 4.5%
2019: 5.5%
2020: 5.2%
2021: 5.0%
2022: 4.3% 📉📉📉👀
ANNNNND we're at the point where 2022 data should be pretty stable.
(*Adjusted for weather, park, player quality, and universal DH)
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Top 30 Hitters in MLB, via THE BAT
Projected 'True Talent' Context-Neutral wOBA
Agree? Disagree? Someone Missing?
1) Trout
(BIG GAP)
2) Yelich
3) Bregman
4) Bellinger
5) Soto
6) Freeman
7) JD Martinez
8) Betts
9) Rendon
10) Harper
11) Yordan
12) Acuna
13) Judge
14) Alonso
...
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Believing in math and science doesn't mean you believe you know everything or are always right. It means using the best (often imperfect) data you have to make the best decisions possible, and being willing to constantly change your views/actions with new (also imperfect) data.
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I am humbled and excited that THE BAT X has been crowned by @FantasyPros as the most accurate original projection system in existence for the 4th straight year (every year since it was born). 🍾🥳
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Top 50 Hitters in MLB Right Now, via THE BAT X
Projected 'True Talent' Context-Neutral wOBA
Agree? Disagree? Someone Missing?
1) Trout
[GAP]
2) Soto
[GAP]
3) Betts
4) Freeman
5) Harper
6) Yelich
7) Acuna
8) Yordan
9) Springer
10) Bellinger
...
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/THREAD 🔥🔥🔥 10 tips that will make you a more PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTOR this MLB season
I profited over 💰100 units (24% ROI)💰 last year using THE BAT X, THE BLITZ, the tools at EV Analytics, and principles like the ones I'm about to share...
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Ladies and gentleman, I present to you the most overvalued player in fantasy baseball...
ELLY DE LA CRUZ!
🤯🤯🤯
ADP: 21st
Highest Drafted: 11th
THE BAT X Rank: 79th
You may now fetch your pitchforks and commence telling me how stupid I am.
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⚾️MLB's Most Valuable Position Players⚾️
via THE BAT X's 2022 Projected WAR
You'll NEVER guess who #10 is!!
1) Soto
2) Tatis
3) Trea
4) Jose Ramirez
5) Trout
7) Betts
7) Acuna
8) Harper
9) Vlad
10) ❓❔❓❔❓❔
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Travis Hunter is not the "NFL's Shohei Ohtani"
Hitting and pitching a baseball are very different skills.
Catching a football and preventing someone else from catching it are very related skills.
It's cool he can both. It's also 100000x less impressive than what Ohtani does.
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Soooo, uhhhh, I don't know how to say this, but a few of THE BAT subscribers got James McCann to sit me down and talk to me about lefty mashers. I can't even right now 😐😐🤣
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Yearly PSA: Bryce Harper is an ELITE hitter, one of the 10 best in MLB despite what batting average, RBIs, and Joe Schmo's "eye test" might have you believe.
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Well shit, I just checked and Mike Trout fails 70% of the time too. How do these bums even make the majors?
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THE BAT X projections are now LIVE at @fangraphs!
🥳🍾🍾🍾🥳
Let me know the first thing that jumps out at you and makes you go WHOA
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I'm old enough to remember when Tony LaRussa got a DUI and then got hired by the White Sox anyway because he's a "great clubhouse manager" or whatever and then one player temporarily quit baseball rather than play for him and the team sucked for two years. What a difference-maker
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/THREAD 🔥🔥🔥 10 tips that will make you a more PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTOR the rest of NFL season
I'm 💰+185 units (14% ROI)💰 since I started giving plays two years ago using THE BAT X, THE BLITZ, the tools at EV Analytics, and principles like the ones I'm about to share...
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/THREAD‼️ On 2023 MLB rule changes and the one MASSIVE change THE BAT X is forecasting this season...
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Analytics aren't flawless, but they are better than any alternative. Critics who poke holes in analytics don't realize you can poke holes in any approach. It's not about being perfect, it's about being less wrong than the alternative.
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It's almost everyone's favorite time of year! Grab your pitchforks, because THE BAT X will drop soon and your favorite prospect probably projects below-average in 2022. Can't wait!
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Tony La Russa has no business managing an MLB team in 2021. The *only* reason it was remotely defensible in the first place was for subjective "he can manage a clubhouse" reasons, and it seems clear that's not even a thing for him.
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JOEy GAlLo Is TeRRIble except the best team in the universe wants him. yup makes total sense, yankees fans
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THE BAT and THE BAT X are now live at FanGraphs!
A few notes...
1) This is a preliminary run of the system. There are a few under-the-hood things that will continue updating
2) I haven't made any adjustments yet for the 2023 rule changes
Both should happen within a few weeks.
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Saw "ScamDuel" trending and made the mistake of clicking. Bunch of dudes crying because FanDuel didn't void props for a player that got injured. I still don't get how 'account for the chance of injury when placing your bets' is such hard advice to follow.
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McCullers quantifiably and visibly has the best stuff of any SP in MLB. His change-up was underrated to begin with. If it has improved, this is a potential Kluber-level ace.
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"Boring Is Best" should be your fantasy draft motto.
If you're drafting a bunch of rookies and 'five tool' players and guys who 'broke out' in 2018, YOU'RE DOING IT WRONG!
Boring players have the most value. Boring players win leagues.
I'll pass on Eloy and take McCutchen.
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In other analytics news, THE BAT projections for 2022 will be ready soon. But they'll probably only get the HR, RBI, and batting average exactly right for maybe 1 player, so you can ignore all the rest that are clearly wrong.
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Top 50 Hitters in MLB, via THE BAT X
Projected 'True Talent' Context-Neutral wOBA
Agree? Disagree? Someone Missing?
1) Judge👀
2) Tatis
3) Soto
4) Alvarez
5) Trout
6) Vlad
7) Harper
8) Ohtani
9) Freeman
10) Acuna
(cont...)
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Guys. We're 2 games into the season. I've given out 1 bet recommendation and it lost. Don't be this guy.
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There's really no excuse for not understanding the basics of probability if you seriously follow sports (or worse, do it for a living) in the year 2021.
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A fully healthy #Angels lineup is one of the best in baseball. +14000 to win the WS? Yes please.
Trout
Ohtani
Grichuk
Cron
Renfroe
Drury
Rendon
Escobar
Thaiss
Ward, Moniak, and Moustakas off the bench
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Hitters Projected to Beat Their 2018 HR Totals By 5+ HRs, via THE BAT
Any surprises? Or surprise omissions?
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THE BAT X was the Most Accurate Projection System of 2020 according to @ATCNY's FanGraphs study, ahead of even his always-stellar ATC! Beating an aggregate system is almost impossible, so I'm super stoked the new Statcast upgrades worked out so well🎉🥳🎉
fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-ba…
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It's THE BAT Day! THE BAT Projections are now live at @fangraphs!
Come see who it loves (OAK rookie SPs!), who it's skeptical about (Luis Robert!), and who it's expecting bouncebacks for (Sale! Severino! McCullers!)
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Players THE BAT X projects for 30+ HR and .275+ BA
OBVIOUS GUYS
Trout
Soto
Betts
Tatis
Acuna
Freeman
Yelich
Springer
Bellinger
Seager
Story
Abreu
GIDDY-UP👀
Vlad
Yordan
Eloy
Ozuna
Cron
Castellanos
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FitzMagic in Washington? Terry McLaurin to the fucking moon! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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/THREAD
MUST READ: Everything you need to know about the Chase Field humidor and why Chase will become a pitchers' park in 2018
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You can literally bet on certain players meeting their exact contract incentives. If you think books don't know about these and that there's significant edge using them as an angle to bet the traditional prop lines, I've got news for you...
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Full transparency: I just deleted the original Tatis tweet. I'm too busy to spend anymore time on the dozens-to-hundreds of trolls that don't understand prospect bust rates and invade my timeline every time he hits a home run. All stragglers will be blocked, fair warning.
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Do I really have to do a "This is Why James Paxton is a Good Pitcher" thread like I did with Severino? The amount of #Yankees fans today telling me they don't have an elite pitcher is astounding. Dude has a 2.90 FIP and 3.19 xFIP over the past three seasons. C'mon now.
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It's INSANE but this is *exactly* why so many people oppose analytics. Because analytics don't account for some random thing that's like 1% of the equation and is unknowable regardless, they *must* be inferior to going with your gut (which doesn't actually know the thing either)
Arrogant much? 😂
Until analytics accounts for the emotional state of every single individual on the field, it’s a tool not a creed
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🚨🔥HOT TAKE ALERT🔥🚨
/THREAD Top prospects, on average, do not meet expectations. Shocking, I know 😲
Harsh reality: most elite prospects struggle to hit initially. For every Corbin Carroll, there are 3 Volpe/Torkelson/Walkers types 🪣🌊🥶
(...cont)
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Early run of THE BAT is done and it has Zach Eflin projected as a top 20 true talent SP in baseball.
I'm so here for this.
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There's nothing "real" about Maris's 61 HR record. Over time parks, ball, competition, training methods, even season-length change. PEDs are one small variable among dozens. If we could adjust for it all, maybe the real record is some dude who hit 23 in 1928. Get off my lawn.
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Responses to my Angels tweet solidifies that most people don't understand the value of older boring veterans who can still hit... and that putting even a slightly above average collection of hitters around Trout and Ohtani creates an elite offense.
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Jacob deGrom has had 5 starts with 0 runs allowed in which he didn't get the W. If this season doesn't convince the "Wins are all that matter" crowd that pitcher wins don't matter, literally nothing ever will
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Everyone's going to be excited to get to play Gus Edwards on Thanksgiving, but I'm really just excited not to have to play Duke Johnson and Adrian Peterson.
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2018: Hosmer signs for big $$$ w/ Padres. "Analytics are proven wrong" because he's a great clubhouse guy etc etc etc.
2022: The Padres are literally paying Hosmer *not* to be in the clubhouse anymore.
This will never not be funny.
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This #Mets manager Mickey Callaway quote still blows my mind: "I have a philosophy that the way to beat analytics is to go against analytics.”
The way to beat smart teams is to do not-smart things? Uhhh, uhkay.
Injuries have hurt a ton, but this mindset can't be helping matters.
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PSA: Don't be the guy that tags a player's Twitter account when a fantasy analyst puts out a negative take on him. That just makes you a shitty human being.
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Home Runs are wayyyyyy ⬆️UP⬆️ this season... nearly to 2019 happy-fun-ball levels
Home Run per Contact% (weather-adjusted)
4.4% - 2018
5.4% - 2019
5.2% - 2020
4.9% - 2021
4.2% - 2022
4.7% - 2023 (unadjusted)
5.3% - 2023 (weather-adjusted)
5.0% - 2023 (regressed for sample size)
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THE BAT was 2018's MOST ACCURATE projection system* tested, according to all 3 studies I've seen this winter, the most recent from @FantasyPros! It feels really good (and humbling) to do so well against such smart peers 😃😃😃
*non-aggregate
fantasypros.com/2019/03/most…
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🔥Ketel Marte has 2 HR in 2021 after hitting 2 HR in all of 2020 🔥
It's a good thing I own him EVERYWHERE because THE BAT X was obsessed with him
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Everyone's posting their top 2021 hitters lists and I've yet to see a single one with Mike Trout #1 or even top 3. When will y'all learn to stop overvaluing the most recent season and just take the guy who's always elite?
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1/6 Ooof, @OldTakesExposed just got me on some old "Aaron Rodgers isn't good anymore" stuff that looks really bad now.
The reasoning behind it: 37 y/o QBs coming off multiple below-average seasons don't generally return to MVP form. Good on Rodgers for doing it. Super impressive
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Gore > Paddack says so much about overvaluing prospects. Paddack is an ace NOW. Gore could be a *better* ace, but only if he makes good on his (considerable) stuff/talent. No matter how good Gore could be, taking him NOW over an established great SP is not great, process-wise.
If you could only have one #Padres arm long-term, which would it be?
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/THREAD Why Derrick Henry's recent performance is likely unsustainable... and why he's not a good play at 8.2k
People really want to believe he can keep doing this, because the human brain wants to believe what it most recently sees. But...
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Top SP Bargains in 2019 Drafts, via THE BAT Projections!
Are you targeting any of these guys? Who are your favorite bargains?
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Top Offenses in MLB, Ranked Best to Worst by THE BAT Projections
Agree? Disagree? How does your favorite team look?
1) #Yankees
2) #Astros
3) #RedSox
4) #Angels
5) #Dodgers
6) #Nationals
7) #Cardinals
8) #Phillies
9) #Athletics
10) #Braves
11) #Brewers
(12-30 in next tweet)
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TATIS people: take your premature victory laps, and I'll take my L. But Vlad and Eloy are struggling. Projections are merely averages of possible outcomes; for every Acuna or Tatis, there are 3 elite prospects who struggle or are only okay. Being cautious is the probability play.
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The #Mets were never the best NL East team. The "collapse" was just natural regression after overperforming early. They were always likely to lose to Atlanta and have to perform in WC. But this narrative should mean going all in this winter. Great outcome, Mets fans, honestly.
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Looks like I hit 15k followers today! Thanks to all of you for your support over the years. I really love what I do, and I can't wait to help even more of you in the future!
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It always amazes me that, as big as football is, they're literally 20 years behind baseball in terms of willingness to help their teams perform better. More caveman ego in football, I guess?
Titans GM Jon Robinson on analytics.
"90% of the decisions we make is we put the film on and we watch the guy play football ...... You're hiring the guy to play football, not look at a bunch of numbers and all that"
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THE BAT X projects 6 hitters for a .400+ wOBA over the rest of the season. Vlad Jr. is one of them 🔥🔥
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Manny Machado is great but not truly elite. This is the second time in two years the #Padres have overpaid for a player.
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Oh Wyatt Langford. Following in the great spring training tradition of Jordan Walker and Jarred Kelenic before him.
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Apparently Twitter thinks Cody Bellinger is AWFUL. Because it's totally believable for an NL MVP to suddenly become bad overnight (as opposed to, like, bad variance and playing hurt for a year). Was just told he'll be out of MLB by year's end. Recency bias is a helluva drug.
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My Uncle: "Go Eagles!"
Me: "I need DeVito over 27.5 attempts and Hurts under 31.5 while completing no more than 4 of those to Goedert, so they can win to give us that game script but they can't win by too much because Christmas would be ruined by a Boston Scott garbage time TD."
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Is Chris Carson actually going to be the chalkiest RB this week and 3x as owned as a guy like Fournette on the *hope* that he gets the 90%+ carry share Lenny already gets when Lenny will literally have 2x the targets? Do people value Defense vs. RB *that* much?
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Introducing THE BAT X Projections and THE BATcast Tools!!! THE BAT X is a **majorly upgraded** version of THE BAT using Statcast data!
This /THREAD explains all the cool new features/projections/stats and how to use THE BAT X to better analyze players!
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In 600 PA with #Rockies, THE BAT X would project CJ Cron for .274 BA, 35 HR, 97 RBI, 82 R, and .366 wOBA 👀
Give this man the starting 1B job!
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