FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year '19, Podcast of the Yr '24, 11x Nom. 2x Tout Wars Champion. ATC Projections. FanGraphs, CBS, Rotoballer. Host @Beat_Shift_Pod.
New York
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I am incredibly honored to be nominated by the @FSWA for Best Baseball podcast in 2024! @Beat_Shift_Pod
Couldn't have done it without my podcast mate, @mlbinjuryguru !!!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Finalists, Best Baseball Podcast
Beat the Shift
FantasyPros Fantasy Baseball
Pitcher List Fantasy Baseball
RotoWire Prospect Podcast
SportsEthos Fantasy MLB Today
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MLB intended to congradulate Angel Hernandez on a fantastic career via telephone.
But he missed the call.
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NL Batting Average Leaders since All-Star Break
1) JD Davis .371
2) Amed Rosario .366
3) Anthony Rendon .361
#LGM
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According to @fangraphs, as of the morning of 8/8, the #Mets have a 100.0% chance of making the playoffs. No simulation produced a result where the #Mets didn't play in the postseason.
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Hearing rumors that the Blue Jays are now in talks with Alonso. The #Mets appear to be preparred to live without him.
Nothing definite or far along at the moment, but the focus has now shifted away from the Mets for Pete.
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Vinnie Pasquantino (@VPasquantino) is a star in the making.
This season, .292/.380/.549 with 6 HR good for a 152 wRC+.
His 152 wRC+ is better than Goldschmidt's 147, Freeman's 139 and Alonso's 138 - and Vinnie has a better K% rate than each of the aforementioned trio (12.3%).
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Steven Kwan is not peak Michael Brantley. It was a great week.
He's Luis Arraez but batting 2nd not 9th.
Half a dozen steals, maybe 8 homers and a ~.295 BA. A decent number of runs for batting in the 2 hole.
Temper expectations.
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I am very honored to win the 2020 @FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award !!!
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I'm really saddened to hear that the @ESPN Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast with hosts @karabelleric & @SultanofStat is coming to an end. You guys did an amazing job for so many years. Thank you as well @KyleSoppeESPN.
I started listening back when @MatthewBerryTMR &
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ATC 2025 Projected Batting Average leaders:
Who are the missing players (#2, #6, #11) ?
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Tanner Scott is the closer.
He's getting paid $72m. I know its the Dodgers, but no one is going to pay a reliever that much money to not have him save the lions share of games.
He's a solid #1 closer, that you can draft at a low-end #1 price.
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The time now is 12:01 AM in New York on March 30th, 2023.
Today is now Opening Day for Major League baseball 2023.
We are but hours away from games that count.
Let that sink in.
Enjoy the day, and enjoy the season.
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For a 5th time in a row, the @ATCProjections are ranked as the most accurate baseball projections by @FantasyProsMLB @FantasyPros !!!
#ATC #ATCProjections
🚨2023 Fantasy Baseball Projection Accuracy Leaders 🚨
🥇 @ATCNY
🥈 @DraftBuddy
🥉 @DerekCarty
FULL BREAKDOWN:
buff.ly/47QsqT6
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Some 2018 Cy Young thoughts ....
Jacob deGrom had 10 wins in 2018 with an ERA of 1.70
Lucas Giolito had 10 wins in 2018 with an ERA of 6.13
Mets went 14-18 in deGrom's starts
White Sox went 14-18 in Giolito's starts
Do wins matter?
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Opening day!
Heres's my pitching line:
8 IP, 0 ER (1 R), 3 H, 1 IBB, 0 K, W
I went 2 for 4 with a walk and 2 Rs scored.
Great way to start!!
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Finished 2nd place in a local Chess tournament yesterday!!!
About 30 players participated. Won all my games other than the one against the eventual 1st place winner who went undefeated.
What a great Sunday!
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Sometimes the best decisions you make in life are also the easiest.
Married 18 years today, to my beautiful wife Robin.
I'd take here at pick 1.1 every time.
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Can we all make "Gombered" an official fantasy baseball term?
Its where you pick up a pitcher who has been good as of late (despite a few warts), has an upcoming 2-start week with seemingly good matchups ...
... and then he gets shelled for 7+ runs.
Please retweet this!
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Thank you so much @FSWA for honoring me with this award!
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Thank you @StevenACohen2 for making a beautiful sensory nook at #CitiField.
My son greatly enjoys this at the @mets games!!!
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Public service announcement:
@DerekCarty's THE BAT / THE BAT X 2023 Projections are now on @fangraphs !
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Last weekend before ATC comes out. I spend the long weekend (off tomorrow for MLK Jr. Day) cleaning everything up and making sure we are ready for production!
I am so excited to have the honor of having ATC published once again!
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Both @karabelleric & @SultanofStat have carried the torch, and I'm so sad to hear that the show will be no more. Thank you again for many years of fantastic listening and advice.
And the best theme music ever.
@KyleSoppeESPN @MatthewBerryTMR @NateRavitz
#Hasbrowns #06010
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If the Dodgers win this year, everyone will say ... "Well, guess the Dodgers bought the ring"
If the Dodgers lose this year, everyone will say ... "Look at that - $1b, and that still doesn't buy a championship"
Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on an 12-year, $325 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
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For the 3rd straight year, the @ATCProjections have been dubbed as the most accurate baseball projections by @FantasyPros.
fantasypros.com/2022/03/most…
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Folks, I've been getting a number of comments about my 2nd round Salvador Perez selection in #RazzSlam, that it is way too early for a catcher.
It is not.
This is a best ball league, not a roto league. The ADP of Perez in this format is 17.
Always understand the league rules !
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We are so incredibly humbled by this award for Best Baseball Podcast.
Thank you so much to the @FSWA.
And especially to my podcast co-host - Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru) who I share this hour with every week.
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ATC Regressions are now complete!
Formulas are all updated to take into account the 2023 season!
Now onto the fun stuff ...
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Nice haning out with @IanKahn4 in person at First Pitch Arizona!
@BaseballHQ #FPAZ #FPAZ2022 #FPAZ22
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Eno was instrumental in getting the @ATCProjections up on @fangraphs and he essentially launched my endeavor into the fantasy baseball industry.
Plain and simple, I would not be here today without him.
Congrats, @enosarris on this well-deserved @fswa Hall of Fame honor!
Definitely an old now. An honor, though. An FSWA award (for an article about Kevin Maas, age at level, and boob flashing) gave me my first big break in the business. Pretty cool.
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First game of the softball season today!!!
Here's my pitching line:
5 IP, 4 H, BB, 0 ER (2 R), K, W
I also went 3 for 5 as well batting leadoff.
What a great way to start the season !!!
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#MLB has announced that Games 2 & 3 of the ALCS will start at 8:40 PM ET.
Children on the East Coast will NOT be able to watch these game. It is too late.
Shame on MLB for being short-sided and money hungry, instead of thinking long-term to let children view the playoff games.
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Below are the top projected HR hitters according to ATC 2023.
Can you fill in the blanks??
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& @NateRavitz hosted the show. It was my go-to podcast for so many years, and really was one of the reasons why I somehow got into the industry.
From combo meals to the Wandy line to the closer carousel to hashbrowns, and even back to MatthewBerry's love advice.
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Happy ATC Day!!!
The first cut of the 2020 ATC projections are now up on @fangraphs !
fangraphs.com/projections.as…
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I can't think of a better way to have spent Father's day than to have played softball with one of my sons, and then to go to Carvel for the end of the season with the team ... followed by a BBQ.
Happy Father's Day all!
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So you drafted Mondesi ...
You likely didn't pay that much attention to SB in the rest of your draft. And you couldn't ... because you needed the BA and Power.
This is why players with a high IntraSD (category/profile risk) need to be bought at a discount, NOT at a premium.
The Royals announced Adalberto Mondesi has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right oblique strain. Nicky Lopez has been recalled.
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Just annonuced ...
I am once again a finalist for the @FSWA Baseball Writer of the year !!!
Baseball Writer of the Year finalists
Blake Meyer
Ariel Cohen
Nick Pollack
Corbin Young
Carlos Marcano
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The ATC Projections are now LIVE on @fangraphs!!!
New for this year ... ATC now projects ....
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WAR
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Here is a grid of NFBC ADP from the 3rd week of March, with each player's final 2021 roto value.
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With the super bowl over, it is now time for baseball draft season!
ATC Projections will be updated tomorrow!
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If I were MLB, I would move the first 2 weeks of the season to the end of the season immediately. Give the chance to play all 162 games now, with a 2-week delay.
Then reassess about canceling some of the season in a week or two from now.
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The first cut of the ATC Projections have been completed!
They should be up on @fangraphs in the next day or two.
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🎉ANNOUNCEMENT🥳
I am proud to announce that I will be doing some writing for @RotoBallerMLB in 2020!
Check out the @RotoBaller site in the meantime for fantastic MLB work, which will include me this year! Subscribe today!
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A few thoughts on closers in 2022 drafts.
A) You do NOT want to play the waiver wire during the season for multiple closers. Playing the wire for one is okay, but it gets incresingly tougher to mine for 2 or more mid-season.
Its the same deal with catchers too.
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4 years in a row !!!
🚨 MOST ACCURATE MLB PROJECTIONS IN 2022 🚨
🏆 @ATCNY
2. @DerekCarty
T-3. @MikePodhorzer
T-3. @FantasyPros
5. Clay Davenport
FULL RANKINGS: fntsy.pro/gM4U5Nfntsy.pro/mb…
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We are about 6 weeks away from the 2025 ATC Projections !
Target date of release: January 23, 2025
Might be a day or two earlier if possible.
@ATCProjections
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According to Baseball-Ref, the following are career WARs:
Larry Walker 72.7
Derek Jeter 72.4
Larry Walker had a career .400 OBP with 383 HRs and 230 SB.
He drove in 1311 RBI - which is the same total as Jeter, yet had 4288 AB less than Derek.
Walker is a Hall of Famer.
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Thank you to everyone for a fantastic fantasy baseball season in 2024. Thank you for supporting me and my work - reading me, listening to the podcast and for using the ATC projections.
Hope you were able to take down some hardware in your leagues too !
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I am proud to announce that the @ATCProjections are now also up on @RotoWire !!!
You can find them on the individual player pages at the moment, and there will be more to come soon!
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Here at AL #LABR in West Palm Beach Florida.
At First Pitch Florida presented by @BaseballHQ.
#FPFLA
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I am very honored to finish #1 for the second straight season in the @FantasyPros projections accuracy competitions!
MOST ACCURATE FANTASY BASEBALL PROJECTIONS OF 2020
🏆 1. @ATCNY
2. @FantasyPros
3. @DerekCarty
4. @fangraphs
5. @steamerpro
Check out the full list of 2020's most accurate #FantasyBaseball projection sites – along with category breakdowns – here:
fntsy.pro/3cAKq9B
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Folks, I am proud to announce that -
The Beat the Shift Podcast is now a part of @fangraphs!
Please subscribe to @Beat_Shift_Pod for more info!
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Here are all the 2021 projected 2021 batters that are:
- Below median InterSD
- Below median InterSK
- Below median IntraSD
- Above $10 Value in NFBC format
These hitters present the least measured ATC parameter risk & categorical risk, & have more projections above the ATC avg
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ATC Projections for 2021 are now live on @fangraphs !!!
fangraphs.com/projections.as…
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Asking for crowdsource help here:
Who are the players that will certainly GAIN multi-position eligibility with a new position at the start of the 2025 season?
For example - Alex Bregman will go from 3B eligibile to 2B/3B in the first week of the season, etc.
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ATC was the
#1 hitter
#1 pitcher
Projection system in 2019 according to @FantasyPros !
TOP 5 MOST ACCURATE FANTASY BASEBALL PROJECTIONS (2019)
🥇 1. @fangraphs (ATC)
🥈 2. @FantasyPros (Zeile)
🥉 3. @MikePodhorzer (Projecting X)
4. @Razzball (Site Projections)
5. @steamerpro
MORE HERE ➡️ fantasypros.com/2020/03/most…
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