Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. The equal-weighted S&P500 continues to make new highs. 2. The cap-weighted S&P500 remains stuck (thanks to “lag-7”). 3. The S&P500 Value index also chalked up new highs last week. 4. Micro caps and financials are putting in promising price action. 5. The USA, Korea, and China have one bubbly thing in common. Overall, the bull-market-broadening and bullish rotation theme continues to play through, with the old leaders lagging, and everything else starting pick up. This is a constructive development, but there are a few things to keep an eye on… $SPY $VOO $IVV $XLK $XLF $RSP $IWC (click through to charts 👇)

"buy bonds, they're low-risk" 🤕

This has to be one of the Most iconic Stockmarket Charts of this Decade: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a… (the rise of retail)

🤣

6. It's the old textbook market cycle in progress: first bonds peak, then stocks peak, then commodities peak... At it's simplest, price just reflects the progression of the business cycle (and inflation/monetary policy) h/t @granthawkridge $AGG $SPY $DBC

Global investors dumping US equities

can I say something without everyone getting mad

1. The bear truth... From a long term trend perspective, a prospective crossing over of these longer term moving averages would demarcate this from a shakeout/correction to a proper shift in trend -- a concept which would be outright alien to many. h/t @howardlindzon $SPX $SPY

Surely it's not going to be that simple...

Technicals vs Macro/Fundamentals at the moment...

5. This is either a broken correlation or a correlation that will break a lot of things... h/t @WillieDelwiche $SPX $SPY

Fund Manager cash allocations at a 15-year low! 👀

$VIX 🚀🚀🚀

7. Good news bargain hunters, the S&P500 price/sales ratio is now *only* 20% above dot com bubble levels! h/t @OJRenick $SPX $SPY

Something big is coming.

UST 10yr yields... ...could it be?

3. Just a friendly reminder that bear markets happen across space and time... h/t @MacroAlf $SPX $SPY

"Cash is trash" Fund Manager cash allocations at a record low... (albeit to be fair, bonds and commodities are cheap, so if not stocks then those and not cash)

5. The problem with lower P/E ratios is that while the P has moved, the E is on thin ice -- and the cracks are starting to show... h/t @MikaelSarwe $MACRO $SPX $SPY

7. Good news everyone! After a big reset, the S&P 500 price to sales ratio is now only as expensive as during the peak of the dot com bubble! (albeit, margins are also higher, rates lower, etc) h/t @TaviCosta $SPX $SPY

6. Margin Debt expansion also at a warning level... h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer $SPX $SPY

10. "If 2008 hit again" h/t @FusionptCapital $SPX $SPY

hmmmm 🤔

Still seeing: -no deleveraging -no rotation out of equities -no capitulation in equity flows But sentiment is about as bad as it gets

10yr could easily go to 4%

9. Holding period continues to drop

"what's the worst that could happen?" From: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a…

FYI: the Fed is not going to cut interest rates unless there is a recession and/or crisis

Long-term hodlers of $TLT have been sent back to 2014

10. Cumulative fund flows vs S&P500 -- incredible. Something tells me this is going to be even more interesting in hindsight... @topdowncharts $SPX $SPY

Everyone already knows REITs are f.....

9. Older folk dominating the market... Those aged 55+ owned 75% of US equities in 2020 That figure was 52% in 1990 Meanwhile the under-40's held just 4% h/t @GunjanJS $SPX $SPY

2. Morgan Stanley market timing indicator... times up? h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer $SPX $SPY

1. April begins this week... you know what that means (historically the best month in terms of average return and percentage of instances positive m/m) $SPX $SPY

Friendly Reminder: non-recession corrections tend to be short, sharp, and usually shallow. Recessionary corrections (probably better described as bear markets) tend to be deeper and more drawn-out... From the ChartStorm: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a…

8. Inflation is an equity killer. Peaks in the S&P500 vs Commodities index ratio have served well in flagging major market tops for stocks. (inflation places pressure on margins, consumers, and drives central bankers to tighten policy) h/t @exposurerisk $SPX $SPY $MACRO

When you are so contrarian...

oh, about 50% expect recession...

9. Stocks vs Bonds ratio... Wild. h/t @AtlasPulse $SPX $SPY $BONDS

3. Tech-heavy insider buying fund, INSAX, continuing its plunge (crash?). Not a good omen for the rest of the market... h/t @exposurerisk $INSAX $SPX $SPY

8. Let there be no ambiguity. This is a bear market. Under the surface the picture is clear. We are only now starting to see the index roll over. h/t @jasongoepfert $NDX $QQQ

2. Could it really be that simple? (narrator: *clears throat*... ) @topdowncharts $SPX $SPY

9. Asset Deflation. This kind of wealth destruction is rare and likely ripples long beyond the horizon that most are focused on. h/t @PhilipJagd

4. Bruh. 1600. S&P500 is down -7.6% YTD, correction has been some -12% from the high to the low... ...but elsewhere a raging bear market is well underway: over 1600 stocks in the Nasdaq have *halved* ! h/t @sentimentrader $NDX $QQQ

When you win so hard no one wants to own your stocks anymore

7. File under: "things that look exactly like 00/01 & 08/09" @topdowncharts $SPX $SPY

5. Will history repeat?

8. Record QE to Record QT. You didn't think you could escape unscathed from this monetary maelstrom did you? h/t @ayeshatariq $MACRO

6. Despite all the bearishness, still not seeing flows reverse all that much. No Capitulation. h/t @ISABELNET_SA

10. Both stocks and bonds have been punished this year, which is highly unusual. It's extremely unlikely that this repeats in 2023, so the question is: which one will bounce back (and which one will bounce back the most)... h/t @stephanemonier $BONDS $SPX $SPY

6. *** We interrupt your bearish programming to bring you a (potentially) major bullish chart *** "If June 2022 was a cyclical bottom... it’s not out of character with secular trend since March 2009." h/t @mark_ungewitter $SPX $SPY

(baby no. 3 born today, happy healthy little girl 😍)

"hOw CaN tHis COntiNue??"

Sign of things to come...

2. S&P500 Seasonality Update 🎅 is coming... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ $SPX $SPY

this is not a memestock, a crypto, or a european power price, this is the united states dollar.

You really think it's different this time? Bubbles/History repeats: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a…

Fund Managers heavily underweight Energy Stocks 😬

US 30-year mortgage at a new 10yr high of 7.38% Based on median house prices, and adjusting for CPI, the effective cost of servicing a new mortgage is now back to 1984 levels (and up more than 3x off the 2020 low)

1. These are the lines that matter. h/t @CarterBWorth $SPX $SPY

10. Global stocks vs bonds indicator saying 2 things: -long way to go in the equity bear market -odds are massively in favor of bonds beating stocks in the coming months/years h/t @IanRHarnett

Chart Of The Day - Japan vs USA Taking a long-term perspective on cycles of relative country performance... Today’s chart shows the wild history of relative performance for Japan vs US stocks. It’s interesting for sure because of the obvious “wow factor” …but hidden in the chart is a couple of important points for reflection. First a quick technical note, the chart tracks Japanese equities (the Nikkei 225 — which I converted to US dollar terms, so as to be a like-for-like comparison) vs USA (Dow Jones Industrial Average — notably both of these indexes are price-weighted). Also, for clarity, if the line goes up it means Japanese stocks are outperforming, and if it goes down it means US stocks are outperforming. The first point of reflection is just how stark the numbers are: Japan outperformed the US by over 90x during the period from 1950 to the peak in 1988 (and since the 1988 peak the US has outperformed Japan 15x). One takeaway from that is how country-selection can make a big difference. But what I thought was particularly informative is how that relative performance line looked stretched in the 70’s vs the previous couple decades… and then it looked even more stretched in the 80s, and even much more stretched in the late-80s. Which is a lesson in terms of how far things can go when they get going. But also, all of a sudden the 90s saw just about all of that outperformance reversed. Which is equally a lesson in terms of how fast things can go when the mean reversion kicks in. Particularly relevant when you see all those charts showing how stretched US equities look vs the rest of the world (on both counts!).

6. "what's the worst that can happen?" the worst: h/t @chartrdaily @ritholtz $NDX $QQQ

My business = chart-driven macro insights for investors: topdowncharts.com -global asset allocation and economics research service -aimed at multi-asset investors, PMs, asset allocators -my business on twitter @topdowncharts -my story so far: linkedin.com/pulse/out-blue-…

Chart Of The Day - VIX Seasonality A seasonal up-shift in volatility is underway... Seasonal patterns are well documented in the physical world, with reliable seasonal swings seen in economic data and socio-behavioral trends. So it only makes sense that we also see seasonality in the markets, and around this time of the year volatility has a seasonal tendency to push higher …and as if right on que, here comes the VIX. The tendency for higher volatility mirrors the trend for weaker stock prices around this time of the year (sometimes referred to as the Halloween effect). As a technical note, seasonality is simply an average of what happened in the past, and it is important to note that there are exceptions to the seasonal rule (i.e. seasonality doesn’t always work!). In terms of the current context, as noted last week, the market has kicked into correction mode from overbought, overvalued, and overly-optimistic conditions. We went from everyone being bearish in October 2022, to everyone being bullish in July 2023… but meanwhile monetary & credit conditions are tighter than ever, inflation risks resurging, and multiple leading indicators point to recession. So it’s probably a good idea to pay attention to this seasonal signal... $VIX $SPX $SPY $ES_F $STUDY

Recession canceled?

1. The market was up 6% last week. Here's what it do when it goes like that... (mostly awesome, unless it's 2008/1974) h/t @RyanDetrick $SPX $SPY

3. BULL Markets 🐂 vs BEAR Markets 🐻 One of these things is not like the other... h/t @Mayhem4Markets $SPX $SPY

3. Everyone's (current) favorite economic data report was out this week and it showed annual CPI inflation running at an 8.6% clip. On this chart that would imply a P/E ~11x Current P/E is ~20x 😅😓🥵 h/t @JulianKlymochko $SPX $SPY

Guess we're doing this... Real yields broken the lows. Next stop? $MACRO $BONDS

Rental income growth 🚀🚀🚀

4. Investor Confidence vs Consumer Confidence h/t @takis2910 $SPX $SPY

🚨⚠️📉📉📉⚠️🚨 The S&P500 priced in Cocoa has CRASHED -75% #MarketsInTurmoil

I mean, what are the odds? 🧐 #VIX #volatility $VIX $SPX

haters will say its fake #inflation

Credit Card usage has surged... Bulls: this is good, people are spending Bears: this is bad people need to use credit cards to survive the inflation

Bulls come out to play at night. Weekly ChartStorm: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a…

9. Emerging Markets vs S&P500 -- turning point time? h/t @TihoBrkan $VWO $SPY

5. Short Selling is Dead. (long live short selling) h/t @zerohedge $SPX $SPY

Keeps going higher week after week...

I have almost 2 dozen charts that are pointing to high probability of recession. Tempted to do a webinar to go through them if there is any interest...

5. Rate Hikes vs Stockmarket Speed matters. This cycle is likely to be fast as the Fed is behind the curve, and easing was in response to a shock vs garden variety recession. h/t @MrBlonde_macro $SPX $SPY $FED

3. Bonds are getting murdered. This is not good for stocks... h/t @murphycharts $SPX $SPY $TLT $TNX

3. "Not there yet..." As I've highlighted before (and check the next chart), we are far from bearish capitulation. There is still a lot of denial, and why not -- we've been taught for years that the Fed has our back (but not now, not anymore). h/t @saxena_puru $SPX $SPY

8. #Perspective h/t @joefrancis505 $SPX $SPY

2. Put. Call. Ratio. h/t @ThinkTankCharts $SPX $SPY

Bonds bottomed

Cool chart

6. Relative bear market in energy stocks appears to be ending. Would it be too simple to expect them to rebound all the way back? h/t @ISABELNET_SA $SPX $SPY $XLE

Ignore margin debt charts! (except this one) Ignore the ones that just show you a useless unprocessed picture of total nominal margin debt ...usually with some dumb ill-informed and mis-informing hyperbolic blabber about new all-time highs. Pay attention instead to ones that transform it into something tactically useful and relevant like this one: chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a…

6. Do the futures tell the future? Asset manager equity futures positioning at a new record low (again, at least consistent with local minima...) h/t @MacroCharts $SPX $SPY

3. Insider selling climax h/t @BrightramLLC $SPX $SPY

9. Perspective: who owns the market... (something to keep in mind when people talk about the importance of ETFs, hedge funds, or robin hood traders...) h/t @PriapusIQ

even BOJ... BOJ ruins Christmas by widening the JGB 10yr yield band by +25bps (on a week where most have either physically or mentally checked out for the year!) Message is loud and clear from central banks -- the tightening will continue until something breaks

obligatory...

6. Speaking of Cycles... The stylized textbook market cycle says bonds rally first, then stocks, then commodities (and so-on) So far markets have been following that script near perfectly -- so you know what that means right? h/t @WillieDelwiche

2. Market Breadth -- basically 50/50: this is not a "sell everything" market, this is a violent rotation. $SPX $SPY

1. Over half the market still below their 50dma $SPX $SPY

8. "Buffett Indicator" also now all the way down to dot-com bubble levels. h/t @KailashConcepts $SPX $SPY

7. Profit margin squeeze incoming... (recession will hit demand, inflation input costs) h/t @TaviCosta $SPX $SPY $MACRO