A systematic approach to markets; exposures guided by risk management. Subscription info @ exposurerisk.com/. 🐯
Florida
- Tweets 14,574
- Following 164
- Followers 14,329
- Likes 2,573
Sleep well equity long exposures. Keep buying stocks, the deal of the century, ATHs soon 🥴. keep playing 🏌️😎! Nothing to see here. 💣
12
28
158
The volatility work I show has taken me years to build. Not one, regardless of the technique used, is showing any type of capitulation.🚩
7
17
150
If you are tired of reading all the nonsense 🧙♂️s write about the SP500, here is a solution. Whenever the spread of price (now @ -5%) to its 90-d and 200-d is < -1.3% you go risk-off (magenta columns ⬇️.) Your P&L since 1928 would be +6 times better than buy&hold. Follow price.
14
19
123
Amazing comparison, hourly visualization of a daily comparison first shown by @MrBlonde_macro.
2
23
96
For the 6th time since 1962 (arrows), the (SP500/Bond) ratio is no longer a tailwind for the SP500. Mind the 36, Ides of March 2022. ⚠️
5
16
86
17,340
1) The latest noise from many market timers, those interested in the end game and not the process, is to call for a new bull using thrusts, etc. The fact is that when looking at hourly data the $SPY hasn't had a single 1-hour return > +2.7% since 11/20. Chart ⬇️. 🧵
6
16
84
Strong evidence from the light blue line underneath the SP500 that it is possible equities will be flushed down the toilet next week on equities. After so long showing my work I feel kind of bad I went private during such a bad storm. Block noise, follow price.
7
4
81
I'm just trying to make your life more fun as you trade the evil $SPY. Is everyone long already? The party is just starting. 🎉🥳
12
5
75
For those of you who are still sad about the death of our old fractal friend, I have good news! 🎉
3
7
66
There is a website now. This website is an organizational summary of the work I post on Twitter. Let me know what you would like to see explained there in more detail, changes, and typos. exposurerisk.com.
8
5
65
1) As always, in this interview @jam_croissant not only does a great job explaining what's going on with the SPX, but also one can see the insistence of @OJRenick asking the "holy grail" question, when up? Everything Jam talks about is quantifiable, my translation:
🗣️ 𝘾𝙧𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚! 🥐🥐
𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘 ➡️ @jam_croissant breaks down the latest trends in volatility and what to expect from the Fed with @OJRenick: nitter.app/i/broadcasts/1mrGmypen…
5
9
65
44,804
A clean way to start the learning process of building a trading model. The objective is to stop the noise and follow price+RM. 1 rule, go flat when all 3 conditions: (60-d ma - SP500) > 1.05%, the spread to the 90 > 1.1%, and the spread to 200 > 1.4%. Long when 1 fails. Stats ⬇️.
2
8
61
Capitulation missing. It doesn't look like it is going to go green (upper clip) anytime soon. Model short. ⚠️
3
7
61
With the $SKEW entering the zone where bad things happen (< 120) ST IV is now free to fly high (shown in red upper clip.) ⚠️
2
12
59
The hourly price action is reminiscent of the 2000 and 2008 declines. The main difference is the refusal of vol spreads to rise as prices come down, making the current market kind of unprecedented. Yes, stock market crashes also have that in common.
1
7
58
Congratulations to the $SPY, it managed to drop almost 40 points from the highs without raising fear. Not easy. Complacency is king and deserves a 🥇.⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
9
8
56
You can do all the analysis you want but in the end, you need to respect the colors of the lower clip. Blue = happy longs, red = happy shorts.
3
6
58
The largest 1-hour negative return today is -1.23%. Sorry bulls you need -2.3% for a sign of capitulation. Please do try again. 🥺
4
7
58
My P&L is at all-time highs. I anticipate the models to gradually go flat and then long as the bottom is made, whenever that happens. I didn't go short so close to the top because of some useless forecast, I did it systematically. Remember to turn off the noise, no one knows.
2
55
This piece of research got to be in the top-5 most bearish sentiments I have for equities. Looking forward to see if it works, I have never seen anyone look at these data this way.
5
7
55
I run a continuous equity exposure that is updated daily at the EOD. And just like in the game of "Life Is Beautiful" the objective is not to forecast what is going to happen but to survive and win the tank. My objective is to follow models and not let $SPY > the avg entry price.
2
2
53
365 @ $SPY by next Monday? 🤔 Very difficult to believe that. FYI, the trading models that make the AA have a different idea, short exposure has come down since the lows (profitable trades have been closed out) from -95% to -42% today.
5
2
52
A reminder to the bulls, you need a 1-hour return of at least +2.7% to get some respect. You haven't had one of those since 11/2020! 🐂⚠️
4
6
46
As the short end of I/V drops < VIX, and the $SPY continues to suffer from persistent weakness, the odds of a waterfall decline have increased dramatically! ⚠️
1
4
50
6,161
Or do this, every time the SP500 is below both the 90-d and the 200-d by more than 1.3% you go flat. Go back in when the SP500 gets closer to either one of those averages by less than 1.3%. You can test any of this in excel, no need for anything complicated.
5
8
52
Simplify your life, and stop listening to all those 🧙♂️s infected by the market timing disease, no one knows. No reason to believe the protracted bear will not continue as the VIX is telling you to look at the 00/02 bear as a guide. VIX in the 80s soon? Maybe in Antarctica.
3
1
51
6,199
1) There is still a lot of research to be done regarding the idea that extremes in sentiment are not what is important, it is the extremes in sentiment relative to the market's action. A low P/C @ X when the SPY is > an avg is not the same as the same X when < the avg. 🧵
4
7
50
Don't despair, keep buying! Inflation is dead 🥴, rates will be at zero soon, and the SP500 @ ATHs by year-end! 🎉
5
6
47
1) The amount of charts and markets to analyze is just too large to be of any use to anyone. I would like to send out a daily spreadsheet that would show a general overview of multiple markets without having to spend hours. 🧵
11
3
50
The question is not whether INSAX is dead, the question remains whether the SP500 will follow.💣
4
10
46
1) This is as good as it gets with the comparison so be careful, this relationship will eventually end, they all do. You don't need them to trade properly, I don't use them and I'm still short -80%. What I did, after wasting many years looking for some sort of an understanding🧵
8
6
47
