This cycle isn't anything new... Bonds roll over... then stocks... and then commodities... and hey look... Bonds have now found a bottom... stocks will soon be next then commodities... and the cycle goes on... this is 101 intermarket analysis... $AGG $SPY $DBC

When we see 3 consecutive 1% gains on the S&P 500 $SPX $SPY this has been a great time to be a buyer over the last decade and since 1950 #stocks have been higher 86% of the time with a median 1y return of over 20%

For the first time since January 2022, our Risk On / Risk Off Indicator has turned green. $SPY $SPX #stocks

The S&P 500 is up 72.6% over 678 trading days since the 2022 low, below the average bull market gain of 153.7% over 1,145 days. We’re now in year 3, a phase that’s historically flat and choppy. That’s typical mid-cycle digestion... not a red flag. This bull isn’t young, but it’s not stretched either. History still favors more upside… just not in a straight line.

When these trends change, they tend to last a while... $SPY #stocks $BCOM #Commodities

It's still the best election year so far going back to the 1950s

Do you really want to see a 0.50% rate cut to start with?

Year 3 of a bull market tends to be messy, and the current bull market is behaving as expected.

Only 22% S&P500 stocks are outperforming the S&P500 index this year

The Zweig Breadth Thrust setup has begun! We surely couldn't get three thrusts in just over a year... This signal is meant to be super rare! 🤯

This is the worst start to the year for S&P 500 since 1950 $SPY $SPX #stocks Chart data 1990 to Current

Trigger Warning! Breadth thrust regime has been triggered... The first time since June 2020... This regime is now good for 1-year... $SPY $SPX #stocks

Is it really this simple?

Normally, after we see big stock market crash events and we get back to 80% or more S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day, this trend tends to continue for some time... Strength begets strength... Guess what... we just crossed 80%... Is this time going to be different?

The bear market isn't coming... its already here! 50% of #NYSE stocks are down 20% or more while nearly 50% of #NASDAQ stocks are down 50% or more

Whaley Breadth Thrust has been triggered. The Whaley Breadth Thrust indicator is triggered when the number of five-day advancing stocks in the market exceeds the number of five-day declining stocks by about 3-to-1.

Only 11% of S&P 500 stocks are in an uptrend🟢, while 46% are in downtrends🔴.

Breadth is building... not breaking. 53.8% of S&P 500 stocks are in confirmed uptrends... The highest since December. Just 14.1% are in downtrends... The lowest since October. The weakest names are disappearing.... Participation is expanding....

It is mathematically impossible to have a bear market if there are no new lows

During the election year, the averages tell us that it's going to be sideways to lower for the next 2 months... $SPY $SPX #stocks

For eight consecutive days, the S&P 500 has had more Decliners than Advancers, which has only happened three other times over the past two decades. But... This time is different!

Seasonality to be a headwind for the next few months...

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” - John Templeton Where are we at in this cycle?

Many areas of the stock market peaked a few months ago... things that make you go, hmm...

Small caps... Third longest consecutive day count without a new all-time high... during its fourth biggest drawdown dating back to 2000. $IWM #stocks

The Average Bull-Bear spread of II & AAII is matching the same levels we saw at the covid lows

Nearly 40% of #NASDAQ stocks are 50% or more below their 52-wk highs... while only 12% are 50% or more above their 52-wk lows

Zweig Breadth Thrust has crossed... the 10-day count begins... Will Santa bring a breadth thrust with him?

So are we now at stage 6 or stage 1?

Breadth has five days to prove it. Zweig Breadth Thrust window closes Friday... needs 0.615 to trigger. If it fires, history says +20.3% on average twelve months later. Will it? 👉stockmarketmedia.com/2025-10…

Hey... Guess what... We had a thrust trigger... The Triple 70 Thrust indicator is triggered when the percentage of rising stocks in the market exceeds 70% for three consecutive days. 95% of the time, the index is positive with an average gain of 21.7% (19.4% median)

Bull Market Behavior Checklist... 9 out of 9!

It's fascinating to note that despite the seasonally weak period, the stock market has managed to push higher, disregarding any hindrances. Given this scenario, I'm curious to know what the future holds for stocks when seasonality becomes a tailwind.

The stock market can only decline with an expansion in the new lows list, it's simple math… and you know what… The number of stocks making weekly 52-week new lows expanded to its fourth-highest level over the past 17 years. Read More👉stockmarkettv.com/daily-numb…

And the cycle begins again... The bulls have confirmed with multiple thrusts... ps. I understand the chart is a little full on... but it's worth trying to understand it! if you have got a question... ask away! $SPY $SPX $NYA #NYSE #stocks

Let's dumb things down to the basic level of TA... Has the trend changed? Yes... Is it a new bull market? I don't know... It's okay not to know... and it's ok to wait for more data... But have a process and follow it... $SPY #Stocks $SPX

Just a reminder, on average, during an election year, the first three months are sideways... $SPX $SPY #stocks

Zweig Breadth Thrust is in play... We have seen a move from below 0.40, now it needs to reach above 0.615 within the next 10 trading days or less

2024 has been the best first-half start out of all election years going back to 1952

We also got another thrust... the Triple 70! The Triple 70 Thrust indicator is triggered when the percentage of rising stocks in the market exceeds 70% for three consecutive days.

S&P 500 20-Day Breadth Thrust Update: The 20-Day Breadth Thrust signal triggered on May 12, 2025, when more than 55% of S&P 500 components hit 20-day highs on the same day. That surge in participation marked a clear shift in behavior and has historically signaled the start of powerful bull market phases. We are now 101 trading days into the current breadth thrust regime, which runs for a full 252 trading days or roughly one year. That means the signal is still active and only about 40% complete. Since the May 12 trigger: S&P 500: +15.3% Average post-thrust gain at day 100: +6.4% This cycle has already outpaced most historical thrusts in both strength and trajectory. Participation remains broad, and leadership is rotating within strength rather than away from it. That’s exactly the kind of internal health that sustains a bull market. Across 37 historical thrusts since 2003, the S&P 500 has been higher 100% of the time one year later, with an average 12-month gain of +16.5%. When more than half the S&P 500 is making new short-term highs together, it reflects synchronized buying across sectors. That alignment has always been the foundation of strong bull markets. We are 101 days into a 252-day breadth thrust regime, and the signal remains firmly in play. Participation is broad, returns are above average, and trend structure is holding strong. If history is a guide, this is not the end of the run. It is the middle of a larger expansion phase with plenty of road ahead. This is not a late-stage rally. It is a healthy, high-energy advance that continues to define the bull market of 2025.

Rotation back into risk-on

And Bryson won't make the US Olympic golf team... things that make you go hmmmm

We are entering the back end of September... on average, this period isn't great for stocks... so do stocks follow past trends? or not?

The bull market marches on! There is still room to move as the current bull market is below average on return and time

The stock market isn't following its average election-year cycle as it should have entered a 3-month weak spot starting in 2024. However, the market has just ripped higher. Information is always relevant, regardless of whether or not it fits the expected patterns.

It seems like the market is not following the expected pattern. While everyone is waiting for a pullback, there is a possibility that we may only be experiencing rotation under the surface and continue to move higher on an index level.

My Risk-on / Risk-off ratio is breaking out to fresh all-time highs... Which is led by the risk-off index breaking down to its lowest level in 16 years #stocks $SPX $SPY

switch to risk-off

Bearish spikes of this size typically occur around market lows, especially during drawdowns exceeding 20%. However, this particular spike in bears has occurred while the S&P 500 is only 1.5% away from its all-time highs. stockmarkettv.com/daily-numb…

My sentiment composite is telling me there are a lot of bulls in this market right now!..

I'll say it again for the people down the back... It's mathematically impossible to enter a bear market if we don't have new lows expanding—and right now, there are none!

Risk-on keeps moving higher

44% of S&P 500 stocks are in overbought readings! This is bullish, not a bearish sign! This is the highest level EVER of all my data! $SPY $SPX #stocks

Two key thrusts... both above their averages. Zweig Breadth Thrust (Apr 24) & 20-Day Highs Thrust (May 12). Each thrust is running hotter than history. The tape isn’t just confirming — it’s over-delivering.

Thrust! same levels we saw in 2020.. and we all know what happened after that... $SPY $SPX $NYA $COMPX #stocks #NASDAQ $NYSE

10-day MA Put/Call ratio pushing those upper ranges #sentiemnt $SPY $SPX

5 months in... and 2024 has been the best election cycle going back to 1952... (thick red line)

We have rolled back into risk-on mode

2024 has been the best election year so far

69% of S&P 500 stocks are down 10% or more from their 52-week high... 30% of S&P 500 stocks are down 20% or more from their 52-week high... It's probably nothing, right?

Hindenburg Omen has triggered... What are your thoughts?

One-third of the S&P 500 has achieved a 52-week high in the past 2 weeks! This impressive breadth demonstrates the strength of the current bull market. So, I will say it again... breadth is NOT narrow or weak!

When traditional chart patterns don’t do what they are supposed to do... This is the best type of information... $SPY #stocks

Original Dow Theory vs Modern Dow Theory Which one do you trust more?

Six consecutive down weeks for the S&P 500 since 1950. $SPY $SPX #stocks 2000 and 2008 are in there, but there are also some excellent longer-term returns. So what’s it going to be?

This current move has been a pullback within a larger uptrend... There has been no structural bull market damage done yet... If I am wrong... Let me know! Let's discuss this! $SPX $SPY #stocks

Things you don't say during bear markets... All-time highs...

Normally, after we see big stock market crash events and we get back to 80% or more S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day, this trend tends to continue for some time... Strength begets strength... We are currently at 79.48%... Is this time going to be different?

New highs are expanding. New lows are disappearing. Price is breaking out. That’s not exhaustion — that’s confirmation. When more stocks are leading and fewer are lagging, the trend isn’t ending. It’s just getting stronger.

On average, Q1 of a post-election year is sideways...

Breadth isn’t breaking — it’s expanding. Net New Highs for NYSE + NASDAQ just hit 7% — the strongest reading since Nov ’24. More stocks are hitting 52-week highs than lows. That’s fuel, not friction. 👉stockmarkettv.com/daily-numb…

So the bull market now enters its 3rd year... Over the past two years, There have been 502 trading days with a return of 62.6%... When looking back at other bull markets, this bull market is below average in terms of returns and time.

heyo... we had a thrust trigger... Triple 70 Thrust The Triple 70 Thrust indicator is triggered when the percentage of rising stocks in the market exceeds 70% for three consecutive days.

It's been a good year so far... The only downtrend I like... Down 70lbs

My Bull Market Checklist just hit 100%... All 8 signals are now fully bullish... for the first time since October 2024. Price, trend, momentum, risk appetite, breadth, and global participation are all aligned. Want the full breakdown? 📩Get the latest full report + my daily notes here: stockmarkettv.com/grants-bul…

New all-time highs at an index level, with breadth in the red, don't occur frequently. However, the last two occurrences accurately marked key market pullbacks. Is it time to start taking capital off the table?

The crowd’s late. The rally’s not. Bullish sentiment just hit its highest level of 2025. The crowd is finally buying in — but history says that’s not bearish. This isn’t euphoria. It’s confirmation. 👉stockmarkettv.com/daily-numb…

It is mathematically impossible for stock markets to go down if there are no new lows. Currently, we do not have any new lows even on the shortest timeframes. Things you see in bull markets!

A breadth thrust is required to begin a new cycle

Trend Just Flipped. History Says Don’t Fade It.🔁 A Golden Cross just triggered in the S&P 500 — the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day. It’s the 38th signal since 1950. 👉stockmarkettv.com/daily-numb…

My canaries in a coal mine... These charts act as an early warning system for any potential problems in the market. When all the stocks are showing smiley face bases and moving up and to the right on the charts, it suggests that everything is going well.

Green has begun to replace yellow... this is a positive for the markets

When the Federal Reserve starts to decrease interest rates, we would prefer a gradual reduction in rates rather than a rapid cycle.

The biggest drawdown we have seen on the NYSE FANG+ Index $FB $AAPL $AMZN $NFLX $GOOGL $MSFT $BABA $NVDA $BIDU $TSLA

My canary in a coal mine group are all below their 40-week average...

Two thrusts are good... but I would rather see three

Stocks are playing a different game in 2024

Is this divergence going to mean something?

The way I measure the risk-on or risk-off environment still has a risk-off tilt... but it is improving

When the Federal Reserve starts to decrease interest rates, we would prefer a gradual reduction in rates rather than a rapid cycle.

More sideways action to come?

A high reading means that market internals are inconsistent, with many stocks making new highs at the same time that many stocks are making new lows. This is normally considered bearish for stocks... Do we need to worry about this current spike? Lots of the new lows are coming from the NASDAQ

This bull market has been ongoing for 535 trading days to date. But, this current bull market falls below average in both return and duration. stockmarkettv.com/daily-numb…

NO S&P 500 sector is above its 50-day average...

Here are the bull markets in line chart format...

The January Trifecta... If all are positive... 90% of the time it's a positive year with a median return of 17.2%... #stocks $SPY $SPX

This is how I identify the type of market environment we are in... By using a breadth thrust indicator. I am looking for a thrust over 55% of S&P 500 stocks at 20-Day Highs. Once this breadth thrust has been achieved, we enter a 12-month breadth thrust regime... and we still have ~9 months left in this current regime... Go have a look at the stats page! Probabilities > Stories

At the start of August, I said it looked like bonds bottom (normally first to bottom in the cycle) Bonds rolled over... Now, if bonds break below those June lows the data has changed... I must change... so we might see another leg lower across the board and we must be ready...

Everyone’s short. Everyone’s out. Small caps just posted 83 straight days of outflows. But price? Quietly pushing 3-month highs. 👉stockmarkettv.com/daily-numb…