BTC jumps up to $94k, the model says MSTR should be at $387. Price is $387 🥳💯✅

MicroStrategy's fair value indicator is down to 7%, a level not seen since Feb 2024, when everyone thought MSTR was dead after the EFTs were announced. What happened next? It ripped from $43 to 200. 🧵

By popular demand, here's an updated power law price projection chart! Now with dates, colors and estimated gains. Please RT and follow for more insights. @Giovann35084111

MSTR’s Mysterious mNAV: Solving the Equation How the hell do you value MicroStrategy? One day, it’s a Bitcoin ETF, like BlackRock’s IBIT. Then they’re a Bitcoin treasury company. Now, they’re claiming to be a Bitcoin Refinery Company (whatever that means). You’ve probably seen plenty of arguments on X over how MSTR should be valued. The reality is that they’re all wrong. And they don’t matter. What matters to an MSTR investor is how the market values MSTR and how that might change. To add some data-driven clarity, this article will examine what our models tell us about MSTR’s mysterious mNAV. 🧵 @JoshMandell6 @adam3us

As BTC dropped to just over $90k, the new Ballistic Acceleration model predicts an $MSTR price of $354. The stock just closed at $353.69 👀 At $100k BTC it predicted a price of $460 per share, pretty close to the recent peak. Something to keep an eye on.

Many people said they’d love to see regular updates on our MSTR Fair Value and Ballistic Acceleration Models. So, until we get these models fully programmed and automated on the MicroStretgic site, here goes! 🧵

🚨 BTC Treasuries: The Global Stacking Race Is On! From Tokyo to Surrey, companies are sprinting to stack sats. Who’s leading? Who’s overextended? And who’s flying under the radar? Let’s dive into this week’s MicroStrategist Weekly 🧵👇

Introducing a brand new valuation model for $MSTR: blog.microstrategist.com/mst… TLDR; If the model is reliable, you are currently not bullish enough 🚀 Price targets: @ $98,000 BTC: $460 per share @ $150,000 BTC: $1,600 per share (~4X) @ $200,000 BTC: $4,300 per share (~10X) @ $350,000 BTC: $40,000 per share (~90X) (notice the acceleration at higher BTC prices..) Check the interactive forecast at microstrategist.com/ballisti… Model developed by @martykendall2 , feedback is welcome! @PunterJeff @werkman @crisreed @BitcoinMagazine @saylor

Here's a rough price estimate of upcoming tops and bottoms based on the bitcoin power law by @Giovann35084111. The current and next bitcoin cycle makes for some interesting opportunities.

Oh no he didn’t

STrategy mNAV is down at the 1st percentile of its trend range. 📉 We've been here before. What happens next? 🚀 It all depends on BTC. 👀

MSTR’s BTC Value Per Share is the only number that matters. It’s simply the BTC per share multiplied by the current BTC price. 💲 I’m sure this is what @saylor and the smart money see – the secret sauce to MSTR's success. 🧵 $MSTR #Bitcoin

MSTR’s mNAV: The Wild Ride – How High (and Low) Can We Go? MSTR’s multiple of net asset value (mNAV) is a rollercoaster—exciting, unpredictable, and sometimes downright terrifying. While MSTR’s mNAV might appear erratic, the data provides clues to its long-term trajectory. · The good news? MSTR’s mNAV is trending exponentially upward and to the right. · The even better news? If history repeats, it could go MUCH higher. · The bad news? There’s no guarantee we’ve hit the floor just yet. As the bulls and bears battle it with massive bets in either direction—particularly in the options market—MSTR’s price and mNAV swing wildly. For long-term holders, this volatility acts like a vortex, sucking more capital into the MSTR ecosystem. However, for short-term traders, mistiming the cycle can lead to financial pain. So, how low can we go? And more importantly, how high can we climb? In this 🧵, we’ll decode MSTR’s mNAV, explore quantile regression models highlighting its historical patterns, and map out where it could be headed next—including price projections through December 2025. Ready? 🚀 Buckle up! 🎢

MetaPlanet is heavily oversold, with an mNAV of 1.18, and has 1.4B locked and loaded, ready to buy more BTC. Do the short sellers know they're playing with fire here? 🍿

Until $MSTR is added to the index in 2025, returns in the SP500 will continue to be both «Standard» and «Poor» 🤫🫣🤔 @tnorth @crisreed @PunterJeff @werkman @TimKotzman

Strategy is looking oversold… but is it a sleeping giant? Let’s break down what the data says... 👇

At $96k BTC (current price-ish) the Ballistic Acceleration $MSTR model predicts a share price around $410.

Happy Halloween 🎃🧌👻

🧵 Is the mNAV worth it? A new metric is changing how we value Bitcoin treasuries… Let’s talk about “Days to Cover”—a powerful way to spot which Bitcoin equities are truly stacking sats... and which are just selling the story. 👇

🧵 What’s MSTR really worth? Strategy holds more BTC than any public company—but is the market undervaluing it? Let’s break down how to calculate fair value and why $MSTR could be one of the most asymmetric bets out there right now. 👇 (1/)

Added a red dot indicating current $BTC and $MSTR price. If the dot is under the line $MSTR is undervalued according to the model. Values update live so keep the tab open :) microstrategist.com/ballisti…

Relentless execution by @gerovich and @dylanleclair

Introducing version 1.0 of MicroStrategist.com 🥳 - Calculate your $MSTR portfolio returns based on the expected Bitcoin future price as calculated from the Bitcoin Power Law model. - Input your own expectations of yearly BTC yield, NAV premium, and yearly share growth in %. - Try the Bearish, Neutral or Bullish models - Also stacking BTC? Add your stack and DCA amounts to see how it will grow, as well as your total MSTR + BTC value over time. - Share your estimates with other analysts simply by sharing a custom link. Retweets are really appreciated :) @ryQuant @PunterJeff @crisreed @Giovann35084111

Gladiator is Not Ballistic Enough (on MicroStrategy)! Gladiator (@cf_trades) gets a ton of flack for continually bull-posting about MSTR on X from his parent's basement. But as you’ll see, his simple model is not too bad. 👊 In fact, Gladiator might not be ballistic enough (about MSTR)! 🚀 🧵

🤔🧐

Now with live updates ⚡️ @ microstrategist.com/ballisti… @PunterJeff @werkman @Sina_21st @dotkrueger @crisreed

What's the Optimal BTC Yield? 🚀 Everyone loves a fast-growing Bitcoin treasury… but how hot is too hot? Start with 1 BTC and grow at 1% a day — in 2 years, you'd have 1,413 BTC. Crank that to 2.34% daily, and you hit the 21 million BTC cap in 2 years. At 10% per day? You reach 21M BTC in just 178 days. 🤯 This is obviously impossible. 📈 That’s exponential growth — and it’s a mathematical illusion. It looks amazing… until it isn’t. Investors pay for BTC Yield. When it slows, mNAV will evaporate, and savvy investors will hit the eject button. MetaPlanet shows us the power of slow, steady, sustainable growth. If your favourite BTC company is “growing” 10% daily with a sky-high mNAV, it’s not a rocket — it’s a shooting star with an expiry date and a long way to fall. ☄️ Bright, fast… and gone. Prepare accordingly.

Wonder what happens next? 🤔🚀🍿

MSTR’s mNAV is bouncing off its exponential range lows—could this be the start of 'big things'? 🚀🔥

🤔🚀

Could we still reach $200K $BTC and $2800 per $MSTR share in 2025? From microstrategist.com/ballisti…

🚨 Bitcoin Treasury stocks are booming... but danger lurks beneath the surface. Before you ape into the next BTC equity, read this 🧵to learn the hidden risks smart investors are watching—and how to stay one step ahead. 👇

🧵 Should MicroStrategy let mNAV fly—or keep hammering the ATM? A thread on BTC Yield, leverage, and how MSTR’s next funding move will define its future 👇

MSTR is still well below its fair value price of $421 (based on the 538,200 BTC they have stacked), with a fair value rank of 32%. mNAV is starting to pick up again, but still has a long way to run if FOMO kicks in if BTC starts to rip again. With some recent ATM, MSTR's debt has dropped to 19%, giving them plenty of room to issue more convertible debt or sell more preferred shares. My calculations suggest they could reach 665k BTC by the end of 2025, with a BTC yield of 0.11% per day or 52% per year without exceeding their 30% debt limit. Things could get fun if BTC starts to behave like digital gold and GME, XXI, and everyone else keep stacking to pump @saylor's bags.

How to either 3X or 20X a bitcoin investment in 5 years. @BTCPowerLaw @Giovann35084111 Alternative A: Buy now and just hold it for 5 years. The price will be MINIMUM $153k in late 2029 (based on the power law) OR...

With BTC ripping to $105k, the ballistic model rank is down to 12%, and the fair value is 18% (oversold). The current fair value (based on MSTR's current Bitcoin stack) is $503, with a 95th %ile at $744. TLDR:🚀📈👆🟩

My Bear/Base/Bull cases for MicroStrategy (NFA) Bear case: $MSTR mNAV is currently 2.4. If we reach $250k BTC (which seems probable) we'll hit $800 MSTR (2X) without increasing the multiple. Read the attached table vertically to see how share price will change based on BTC price, with current and higher mNAV values. The fear of an upcoming bear market could keep expectations lower and dampen the multiple as we get closer to the end of next year, though not everyone believes the cycle continues as before. Jury is still out on that. My gut feeling is that cycles continue but with muted drawdowns. On the other hand, 2025 likely brings a marathon of positive catalysts for MSTR. With much higher BTC prices, FASB, passive flows from index inclusions and so on, it seems unlikely to me that mNAV will not expand to at least 5 to 10. Markets are forward looking and what is obvious to us in our MSTR/Bitcoin maxi X bubble, is not even on the radar of 99.9% of investors. It will soon be increasingly clear that MicroStrategy is winning, then blindingly obvious. Base case: Given a NAV multiple of 10 we could see prices of at least $4000 per share (10X) by this time next year. My bull case is so high I find it almost embarrassing to share here, but I believe there is a non-zero chance we could reach $20,000 to 30,000 per share if @martykendall2's Ballistic Acceleration Model continues to fit the data and BTC tops out at $300k+. Explore this table for yourself and the Ballistic Model at MicroStrategist.com. If you input your # of shares at the top of the page, you can see the value of your portfolio instead of share prices in the table cells - very useful, if I may say so myself. If you add your BTC holdings too you can see the value of your combined "no second best" portfolio as well.

MetaPlanet is deep in value territory... 📉 19th percentile of fair value range ⏳ 100 Days to Cover mNAV 🔥 92 Days to Flippening When sentiment flips, it could move fast.

🚀 It's still early days for MetaPlanet… but the ballistic acceleration model suggests... 📈 120K BTC? → MetaPlanet: 2.0x → Strategy: 1.6x 🏁 $150K BTC? → MetaPlanet: 4.5x → Strategy: 3.0x Asymmetric upside. #Bitcoin #MetaPlanet #MSTR

MetaPlanet shorts right now: 🥶💦 Price is scraping the 7.8th percentile of the fair value range. Last time, in April, after it got down to 5.8% → it exploded upwards. 🚀 And they’re still stacking. In 60 days, BTC per share > share price. Tick-tock, bears. ⏳

No days off

It's crazy how closely MSTR tracks the Ballistic Model as BTC comes off its highs! When the BTC price rises, the ballistic model excels at forecasting Strategy's BTC Yield. But looking deeper, we see that mNAV is finally bouncing off the exponential range lows. With mNAV still down, the ATM is not accretive, so there have been a few weeks without buy announcements lately. But, MSTR's volatility turbine is firing up again, meaning they can issue more accretive debt at better terms to buy more BTC before the end of Q1. Their debt is currently at 20%, so they have plenty of room to increase to their 30% limit. This buffer will only increase once BTC rips again. When we dig a bit deeper and consider the value of their current BTC stack, we see that the fair value and mNAV models are still well in the oversold zone. As always, MSTR's price is tied to BTC. If anything substantive comes out of the Crypto Summit, we could see a sustained trend for BTC that slingshots BTC's price into the upper end of the ranges. But if it's just another sell-the-news pump... we may have to endure the volatility (which leads to vitality) a little longer. These are definitely "interesting times".

🧵 The Half-Life of Bitcoin Treasury Companies Why the fastest stackers fall the hardest — and how to spot the ones built to last. Let’s go 👇

$MSTR Model Update: - Current MSTR = $330 - Ballistic Model = $354 (currently @ 35th %ile) - Fair Value Model = $431 (currently @ 15th %ile) - Fair value lower bound (5th %ile) = $264 - Fair value upper bound (95th %ile) = $630 For better or worse, MSTR is intimately tied to BTC. The next few weeks are hard to predict, but the models suggest we're still undervalued.

I present to you: my diversified portfolio 🤣

Rebranding. Less ATM. More leverage. Higher BTC Yield target. Let's go! 🚀

The race is on! Will anyone catch @Strategy?

🚀 Big news: MicroStrategist is now mNAV.com — the hub for Bitcoin Treasury insights, dashboards & smarter stacking strategies. A new name. A bigger mission. The same commitment to driving BTC treasury adoption.

🚀 The Blockchain Group (ALTBG) has exploded recently… But they still look fairly valued. 👀 And they’ve just raised cash for some aggressive BTC buys in the coming weeks.👇

Current $MSTR thesis: Saylor learned of the high likelihood of upcoming US Strategic Reserve before most, understood its significance and has been stacking hard using the ATM while prices are still low. Blackout period from mid January when they cannot use ATM due to upcoming earnings may led to repricing of stock and higher mNAV baseline. NFA/DYOR

🧵 Why MetaPlanet is STILL undervalued—despite the hype MetaPlanet has outperformed every equity on Earth… But the data shows it’s still trading below fair value. Let’s break down the premium, the stacking, and what the fair value model reveals 👇

Zoom out. 👀 We've seen this movie before. 🚀

📈 What if you could predict the rise—and fall—of Bitcoin treasury companies? It turns out, you can. The key? 🔑 Power law regression (log-log) —applied to: 1. BTC, 2. BTC Yield, and 3. mNAV. Let’s break it down. 👇

💥👀🚀

$MSTR is approaching escape velocity 🚀

What’s Fair for MSTR’s mNAV? A Battle of Perspectives The 1.0 mNAV bear will likely think this is outrageous, while the MSTR bulls, who see MicroStrategy as having a powerful position at the centre of the future of money, might think this is still cheap. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. MSTR releases its Q4 earnings report in February, and then it can count the growth in its bitcoin stack as earnings post-FASB later in the year and show a forward price-to-earnings ratio that might blow TradFI’s minds! In the meantime, the smart money will do the research and likely try to front-run this and get on board before it gets included in more indexes, which will buy MSTR based on its rapidly rising market cap as a % of the whole index, regardless of price. However it plays out, we’ll keep you posted to highlight what the data reveals. Feel free to comment below with your thoughts on how MSTR should be valued, given its unique business model, which looks set to dominate the modern financial market.

Here's the full $MSTR NAV Multiple Explorer table, it's updated live with current NAV multiple and BTC price. Play with the interactive one at MicroStrategist.com 2500+ investors already have. @ryQuant @PunterJeff @crisreed

MSTR is 10.7% undervalued based on our ballistic model and even more based on the fair value model (see 🧵below). microstrategist.com/ballisti…

MSTR is currently at the 30th % percentile below the fair value price of $481. - Lower band (5th percentile) = $302. - Upper (95th percentile) = $763. What if they pulled another convert (once volatility pops), and all the shorts and covered calls had to cover?

MetaPlanet has maintained a BTC Yield of ~0.88% per day for the past 14 months. That’s one of the most consistent, aggressive stacking rates in the Bitcoin treasury space. It's the secret sauce to their incredible growth, but will it continue? 🧵

It’s getting crowded in here. 🚀 As the Bitcoin treasury game matures, it’s no longer just about grabbing the most BTC the fastest. 📈 Now the winners will be the ones who can sustain the pace, manage risk, and prove they’re built to last—not just flash and crash. 💥🧠

🚨 Is the MSTR Ballistic Acceleration Model Broken? Bitcoin just hit new ATHs, but $MSTR didn't follow. What’s going on? Is the model dead? Or has the game just changed? Let’s break it down 🧵👇 [Full article: blog.microstrategist.com/has…]

With BTC pushing above $97k, will we see a jump back up to fair value of $428 per $MSTR share today? Follow along at microstrategist.com/ballisti…

This is getting pretty crazy! Bitcoin is heading up and MetaPlanet is down to mNAV = 1.29, 24 days to cover mNAV and a big bag of fiat ready to buy bitcoin. 🍿

What if I told you you could 100x'd your portfolio in a year without leverage? 🚀 The secret? Days to Cover mNAV. This new metric uncovers the fastest-growing Bitcoin equities—and how to ride the wave—and exit before the crash. 👇 🔗 Full article: blog.microstrategist.com/sta…

UPDATE: The MSTR Fair Value and Ballistic Oscillators are still deep in the oversold zone after Bitcoin's recent sell-off.

Every investor in the world should see this.

Over 25K $MSTR investors have played with the forecasts and tools at MicroStrategist.com so far - are you in this list? 🤩

Be sure to read the article about the model at blog.microstrategist.com and see the interactive forecast at microstrategist.com/ballisti…

It's interesting to see the MSTR price holding up pretty well despite the drop in the BTC price. It seems plenty of people are holding on for the next big move in the BTC price. microstrategist.com/ballisti…

In collaboration with $MSTR creators, we're launching a free directory of useful content, to serve as a starting point for #MSTR investor journeys. Visit: MSTRnetwork.com If you're building/writing/creating something useful, let us know and we'll add it, and feel free to link to the site and say that you are a part of the #MSTRnetwork 🚀 @PunterJeff @ryQuant @coletenold @crisreed @saylor @LizardWizardBTC @tnorth @werkman @werkman @TimKotzman Retweets are appreciated to share this free resource far and wide. WIP, feedback is welcomed :)

$MSTR Black Friday Sale, 8.6% off! microstrategist.com/ballisti…

I wonder if both of them being on the same spot on the earth is affecting gravity, due to the the immense mass of their balls. $MSTR $BTC @nayibbukele @saylor

Congratulations on $100k BTC! Next goal: $1,000 MSTR

The BTC liquidation heat map is inanely tight right now. - People who see what happened with the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve are betting it will go up. - People watching the broader market (e.g. S&P500) seem to be betting it will go down. One thing's for sure: it doesn't usually stay like this for long. The next move might be violent. coinglass.com/pro/futures/Li…

MetaPlanet's BTC Yield continues to defy gravity.

🚀 +12% today! Has MetaPlanet finally found its floor and started to bounce? 👀 #BTC #MetaPlanet $3350.T

What are your wildest predictions for the next 12 months in BTC and Strategy? Here are a few I’ve been contemplating: - $BTC reaches ~$250K, and $MSTR shares $5,700 as per our ballistic model. Tradfi disbelief and bewilderment intensifies. - Fearing disruption, a Mag7 company goes all in on BTC, and the rest have to follow, and fast. - Strategy’s mNAV reaches an all time high. «This should not be possible» commentators react on X. Then, the mNAV doubles. - $MSTR starts aquiring smaller Bitcoin treasury companies to solidify their monopoly and recruit smart operators for their growing team. - The bull market fizzles out in 2026 but price bounces off the fair value power law line and resumes a steady uptrend. See bitcoinpower.law. - A smaller BTC treasury company takes on too much risk to catch up and has to liquidate its stack. - Right after the US announces they’ve started buying more BTC, a Middle Eastern nation state publicly announces a 100K+ bitcoin holding. - Saylor or Satoshi are Time’s Person of the year. - Legislation to redistribute or heavily tax BTC gains are proposed in several countries. - Evidence proving the identity of Satoshi surfaces. It’s @PeterSchiff. What are your wildest predictions? @tnorth @MMMicroStrategy @PunterJeff @werkman @crisreed @stephanlivera @stackhodler @saylor

How much faith/hope do you put in the relationship between BTC and M2 global money supply?

Predicting the future price of BTC-TCs is a 3D vector equation: Price = BTC Price x BTC per Share x mNAV When you understand where all three are heading, the future becomes clear. ⚡ Hint: They're all linear on a log-log chart.

For better or worse, MSTR's fate is tied to BTC. With the recent drop in Bitcoin, our ballistic model shows that the price of MSTR is just about right. 🙁 However, the good news is that the MSTR Fair Value Model still shows MSTR as way under fair value (15th percentile). 😀

🚀 A Big Year Ahead for MetaPlanet? With MetaPlanet's current daily BTC Yield of 0.88% and price momentum climbing along the power law trend, 2025 could be massive for MetaPlanet. 📈 @dylanleclair @ActuallyClimber

Go big or go home.

Added $LQWD.

Over the holidays I met some old friends I only see once a year. Since they know I invest, they asked me what assets they should have in their portfolios and naturally I mentioned Bitcoin (and $MSTR). I explained the power law, how its growth mirrors that of other complex networks like cities or the internet, and the beauty of scale invariance. I showed the log/log chart of BTC/USD which blew my mind when I first saw it. The reply: "Well, Bernie Madoff also showed people charts that only went up and to the right, too". I wonder if this is why the Bitcoin Power Law is not mainstream knowledge yet - does it seem too good to be true? I just buy BTC, wait, and then I'm wealthy forever? We're so used to difficult problems having difficult, complex solutions. We can't see the simple solutions. Simple looks like overpromising, a scam. This is called complexity bias, or solution aversion. It's a blind spot we probably all share in some area of our lives: Weight gain: eating less and moving more vs. complex diets, buying expensive supplements etc. Sleep: going to bed earlier, turning off lights vs. sleep trackers, expensive mattresses++ Home organization: just getting rid of stuff vs. buying storage units, boxes etc. Many people make their living convincing you that you need complexity. Couple that with our consumerist culture where you need to buy stuff to "keep up" with everyone else.. Studying and understanding Bitcoin is a way to help figure out what is truly important in your life. Bitcoin makes you realise what other things in your life are truly scarce. Your family. Your time. Your energy. That's how Bitcoin makes you wealthy in more ways than one. @Giovann35084111 @crisreed @stackhodler @tnorth

🔥 MSTR went full throttle in Oct–Nov: 💸 ATMs + convertibles = BTC buying spree 📈 mNAV peaked at 3.9 after the BTC election pump But then… 🛑 Covered calls + shorts = selling pressure 📉 mNAV sank to < 2.0 — no dry powder some weeks Meanwhile, 🇯🇵 MetaPlanet kept stacking: ✅ Short-dated warrants ✅ Rising BTC share ✅ Immune to shorts & calls = more resilient?

Can Your Favourite BTC Treasury Co. Keep It Up? 🍆📉 Everyone loves a fast BTC stacker. High BTC Yield = high mNAV = 🚀 share price. But here's the catch... 🪤 As their BTC stack grows, it gets way harder to keep adding at the same pace (BTC Yield = new BTC / current BTC). That juicy exponential growth? It always slows eventually. ⏳ And when it does... mNAV compression hits. Hard. ⚠️ Watch for slowing BTC Yield — it’s the first sign of a cooldown. The real winners will be the ones that can defy gravity just a little longer. The ones who keep growing their stack, even when their treasury is already fat. 💪 Keep an eye on the DTC mNAV leaderboard. The race is far from over. 🏁 The real race is just beginning... 🏎️

Here’s the full view of the cycles. We are in the middle of the 12X cycle, with about 3X to go before reaching the top.

Talking to tradfi friends it’s clear no one is aware of what is happening with bitcoin treasury companies. I bet there is maximum 21,000 investors in our «bubble» here on X. Hit like on this post so we can count how many future billionaires are actually here 😃 $mstr $mtplf $altbg $smlr

MSTR BTC mNAV (excluding debt) with quantiles. Where do you think we go next? 🤔 Zoom out! 🧐

News! 227 more BTC locked away forever, now 847 total. 861% BTC yield YTD. $ALTBG

🚨 How much Bitcoin could Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stack by the end of 2025? Depending on how BTC moves, they could end the year with 719k... or 906k BTC. 🤯 Let’s break it down 🧵👇

M2 says ☝️🟩

The Blockchain Group has powered ahead of KULR and Remixpoint and now have CANGO and Semler in their crosshairs! 📈🚀☝️🟩

It’s been a pleasure working with @AlexandreLaizet and his talented team, helping them accelerate their Bitcoin journey! Let’s go! 🥳

It's impossible to know where BTC will go in the short term, but MSTR looks low-risk. The fair value rank and mNAV rank sit at historic lows, in the low end of their normal range. MSTR's BTC value per share is still heading up and to the right. Increasing MSTR volatility will make it more attractive to options traders and their convertible bonds, meaning they might be able to sell for a higher premium to buy more BTC at a lower price. Wen moon? Dunno. But MSTR's fundamentals are intact and primed for another big move.

As people wake up to what MSTR is doing again, MSTR will run up again to the upper end of the fair value range (and the %ile rank will head towards 100%). Here's what 2025 COULD look like (inspired by @Z06Z07's comment in the last MSTR TN).

🧵 Semler (SMLR) might be the most overlooked BTC treasury stock right now… If you believe in Bitcoin, here’s why this healthcare-turned-Bitcoin-play could be seriously undervalued 👇

Updated with a $500K BTC selector: microstrategist.com/ballisti… $444k BTC elegantly gives us an estimated MSTR price of $44,000. That's a market cap of $25T, I think that is unlikely this cycle 😅 Either the model breaks - which is likely at some point regardless.. or we are not bullish enough.

We've updated the $MSTR Ballistic Acceleration Model at microstrategist.com/ballisti… Now you can see how the model has performed vs actual share price. Notice we're below the expected price at the moment, but will likely jump closer at market open. You can use the moving average feature to smooth out some of the daily volatility in the chart.