Happy 10th Birthday Bitcoin!

Judge: I will prepare a fairly long judgement I have reached the conclusions the evidence is overwhelming CSW is not the author of the whitepaper CSW is not satsohi CSW is not the creator of Bitcoin CSW did not author the Bitcoin software

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 12 March 2024 All data in. Record day with over $1 billion of net inflow. Blackrock with a record $849 million of inflow

The Ripple story We look over the history of Ripple and examine various disputes between the founders. We then explore the technology behind Ripple & conclude that by default, Ripple.com's server has full control over the ledger blog.bitmex.com/the-ripple-s…

Trump Bitcoin Speech - Summary: * Bitcoin is great * Bitcoin will go to the moon * You are all smart * I am smart and my family is smart * If we don't lead in crypto, China will * You are all great * The Dems are against crypto * @SenWarren is very nasty * I will fire @GaryGensler on day 1🔥🔥 * Vote for me

COPA vs CSW - The trial is now over COPA won and CSW lost. The final words from Judge Mellor below: "Having considered all the evidence and submissions presented to me in this trial, I've reached the conclusion that the evidence is overwhelming. Therefore, for the reasons which will be explained in that written judgment in due course, I will make certain declarations which I am satisfied are useful and are necessary to do justice between the parties. First, that Dr Wright is NOT the author of the Bitcoin White Paper. Second, Dr Wright is NOT the person who adopted or operated under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto in the period 2008 to 2011. Third, Dr Wright is NOT the person who created the Bitcoin System. And, fourth, he is NOT the author of the initial versions of the Bitcoin software. For any further information, you'll to wait for the written judgment."

[1/69] A nostalgic look back at some of the most special, hilarious & fun moments in Bitcoin & cryptocurrency history

Bitcoin is now at block height 840,000 The halving has occurred! The block subsidy is now 3.125 BTC 🌗🌗🌗🌗 Blockhash = 0000000000000000000320283a032748cef8227873ff4872689bf23f1cda83a5

Buying a beer on lightning! BitMEX Research wishes you a happy new year! #LightningNetwork

BitMEX Research has set up a lightning network node: Public Key: 0287416bd553ff2630ff54640e3a7e4230d632387039313bf5a24d7df2006e13c2 1ml.com/node/0287416bd553ff2… Feel free to open a channel to our node Deposits & withdrawals are still a long way off, but at least this is a start

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 15th Feb All data out. Very strong day. +$477m of net ETF flow nitter.app/BitMEXResearch/status/…

BitMEX Research: Cryptocurrency pricing model (Part 2)

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 5 March 2024 All data in. $648m total net inflow for the day. Largest inflows since day 1. Blackrock with a record +$788.3 million day.

According to Forbes, HBO will say that @peterktodd is Satoshi... The Forbes article states that "a 2010 BitcoinTalk post replying to Satoshi Nakamoto that [Cullen] Hoback believes was accidentally posted using Todd's profile" This is clearly ridiculous! It is just an example of @peterktodd replying to Satoshi with a snarky, pedantic and accurate comment. Yes, an output value will need to be reduced to generate a txn fee. This is the kind of comment Peter could make today. There is zero reason to believe this was Satoshi forbes.com/sites/digital-ass…

APRIL FOOLS! It's $303m of outflow

GBTC INFLOW OF US$63m!!!!

Sayonara Mr Fake Nakamoto

Judgement in the case between @PeterMcCormack and Craig Wright is now published judiciary.uk/wp-content/uplo…

0.09765625 Bitcoin in rewards per block when SBF is released

The first debate about arbitrary data in the blockchain happened in December 2010 and Satoshi was involved On 8th December 2010, Satoshi released Bitcoin version 0.3.18, which included a standardness check, to only include known transaction types 🧵

COPA Vs CSW Trial - New evidence published CSW submitted to the court a document called Maths.doc. It is dated December 2008. This was one of Wright's primary reliance documents supporting his claim to be Satosh. An extract of the document is shown below, which contains a reference to Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Bitcoin Cash was not created until 2017

Fidelity inflow of $208m today, more than offsets the GBTC outflow on its own

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 9th Feb All data out. Strong day at $541.5m of net inflow Invesco had an outflow, the first non-GBTC product to have an outflow day

ETF Day 1 Flow - UPDATE Finally the GBTC number is out. GBTC has $95m of outflow Total net flow for the day into the new ETFs was $625.8m Bitwise was the victor for day 1

The plan to sync BSV is now abandoned. We cannot get past the large group of 4GB blocks in October 2022 We will not be able to monitor the BSV network for a split. @AskRobinhood @bitfinex @BittrexExchange @kucoincom You are on your own.... Good luck with this....

Bitcoin ETF Flow - Day 12 All data out. Strong day, with $255m net inflow overall

MicroStrategy’s Premium – We did the Ponzi Maths! $MSTR has a market capitalisation of over $100 billion and trades at a giant premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, around 256% on a fully diluted basis. This premium is insane, perhaps in part driven by some financial regulators banning people from buying Bitcoin ETFs. These people are so desperate for Bitcoin exposure, they buy MSTR instead, despite the premium. There is some "justification" for the premium to NAV however, even if the Bitcoin price remains unchanged. MSTR has this “yield strategy”. Since MSTR trades at a premium, the company can issue new shares and purchase more Bitcoin. This then increases the Bitcoin per share. If the premium persists, the company can keep issuing new shares until the value of the Bitcoin per share equals the current share price of $474. (It is up again 10% pre-market). Based on this, we calculated how many shares and at what price the company would need to issue them, to make the value of Bitcoin per share equal the current value of $474. We used an iterative calculation method. Assumptions · The Bitcoin price remains flat at $97,600 · The fully diluted MSTR premium to NAV remains flat at 256% · MSTR raises all the money from equity offerings, in batches of 1 million shares Results: · MSTR needs to issue 157 million shares · MSTR needs to raise $157 billion · The share price will be $1,685 per share · The market cap will be $674 billion · MSTR will hold 1.9 million Bitcoin Are these numbers reasonable? And remember, at that point, with a $1,685 share price, people may need to think the premium will still remain for another round of this. See our spreadsheet below:

CZ will be allowed to live in the UAE while he awaits sentencing. It was a “very close call” as to whether he would be allowed to go back to the UAE. CZ had to speak himself to convince the court. CZ must return to the USA 14 days prior to his sentencing. The transcript extract is below: CZ: Your Honor, I just wanna say one thing. Um, I want to close the issue. So I want to take responsibility and close this chapter in my life. So, um, it's a very simple, it's a very simple mindset for me. Um, I've not caused problems before. I've never been a criminal. Um, I've not been into a courthouse before, so all this is need to me. Um, to be very frank, before I came I was a little bit scared. In most countries you go to a country, you know, you don't know what's gonna happen. So I was very impressed with, you know, being this court hearing, um, having your honor, explaining the little, every little detail to me, all of that is very reassuring actually. Um, so before I come here, that, that is not meant to. So, um, and also with the issue on UAE, um, I was given, I was offered a citizenship. I took it in with a lot of, um, as an honor, I do not want to leverage that to say, Hey, uh, protect you. Um, I don't want to use that. I don't want to use papers that way. Um, so I want to address issues myself. So I have full intention to come back here and close this issue, otherwise I wouldn't be here today. Um, so I start, uh, the issue was there. THE COURT: Um, the, the main issue here is the one on where you should live. And this is a very close call, but I, I tend to favor your position to the stay in the UAEI think everybody who appears in this court has always presented a risk of flight. There's been no one that I have released that did not present some kind of risk of flight, including people who actually face many, many more years than you who still show up. Um, but I think that your actions maybe speak louder than the worries in the sense that you had no obligation to come to the country, you did. And as you said, your intent is you would like to resolve this case, not run. And, and so I think we'll, we'll, we'll allow you to live at UAE, you'll reside at a residence that you'll maintain and let your lawyers know and don't change until you let your lawyers know. I think it's a practical matter and the pretrial office can correct me.

WELCOME TO LAW

BitMEX Research constructs a new cryptocurrency pricing model. It includes price projections for 2019. Available exclusively on the BitMEX Research desk. piped.video/watch?v=PRIzYWG-…

SBF Trial Day 4 - Gary Wang testimony FTX's published insurance fund number was fake and FTX's published insurance fund balance was produced by a random number generator! Transcript extracts below Q. And the number here, what is the size of the backstop fund listed? A. Five and a half million USD and five million FTT. Q. Now, was this number listed on the tweet accurate? A. No. Q. Why not? A. For one, there is no FTT in the insurance fund. It's just the USD number. And, two, the number listed here does not match what was in the database. Q. What do you mean, it doesn't match? A. The number in the databases was a different number. Q. Where did this number come from? A. This comes from a page on the website that claims to show what was in the insurance fund, but it was actually calculated separately. .. Q. So it's a fake number? A. Yes. ... Q. Was the real number higher or lower than the fake number? A. Lower. A. Yes. First, line 16 is saying what the name of this function is. Line 17, it's getting the daily -- it's getting the total volume of trades from the past 24 hours on FTX. Then in line 19 it's taking that number, multiplying it -- then multiplies that by a random number that's around 7500 and then dividing the result by a billion. That's a number that gets added to the number that shows up on the website.

Bitcoin ETF Flow Update

[1/2] There was a stale Bitcoin block today, at height 666,833. SlushPool has beaten F2Pool in a race. It appears as if a small double spend of around 0.00062063 BTC ($21) was detected forkmonitor.info/stale/btc/6…

Monero Re-org & Qubic It seems like there may have been a delibrate 6 block re-org on Monero $XMR from Qubic mining. The target time is 2 minutes, therefore the re-org length is quite small. However, it is not clear if there was a double spend attack or if this was just selfish mining, i.e. trying to earn more of the block rewards. It seems for now that there is no evidence this was a double spend attack. Qubic did seem to have around 20% of the Monero hashrate for a while and they may have sold some coins for USD, to rent hashrate to temporally push the hashrate up to over 30%. Qubic has significantly less than 51% of the hashrate, but perhaps it has just above the 33% theoretical threshold, where selfish mining is profitable (Assuming the coin price does not crash). It is not clear what the Qubic objective is here, but they do have a token $QUBIC and they may want to try and push up the price of it. Other than that, the endgame is unclear, but the "attack" from Qubic may not be sustainable We have heard no reports of a double spend attack @krakenfx @bitfinex @MEXC_Official Any news on this? As for exchanges who take Monero deposits, it might be a good policy to increase the number of confs required for a deposit.

Tether We do not think Tether is a Ponzi scheme. We identify a possible candidate primary reserve bank for Tether, based on financial data from Puerto Rico. We list other pseudonymous USD based online payment systems that were shut down by regulators blog.bitmex.com/tether/

(1/13) Craig Wright is speaking at @ForumChallenge this week in London, in a session entitled “What was your purpose as Satoshi writing the Whitepaper?” Please see below some of the court rulings and fraud accusations related to Mr Wright Source: cc-forum.com/agenda/

SegWit transaction capacity increase compared to Bitcoin Cash Since the launch of Bitcoin Cash in August 2017, around 6.1 million SegWit transactions have taken place, 20.1% more than the cumulative number of Bitcoin Cash transactions in the period. blog.bitmex.com/the-segwit-t…

2020 Predictions: - $BTC over $2,000, but also under $15,000 - $BTC dominance under 75%, but also over 30% - CSW says: 2021 is year the Chinese shutdown BTC mining & 1m of his coins hit the market (Whatever else) - #MATIC falls in value by over 80% @NemanjaMatic Happy New Year

Bitcoin ETF Flow All data out for 13th Feb. Very strong day, with $631m positive net flow over all providers. Huge day for Blackrock at +$493m

HBO “Satoshi Documentary” - Coverage We are watching live so you do not have to. We are starting 52 minutes into the almost 2h show, to report on any “evidence” Peter Todd is Satoshi as early as possible 🧵

In Novemeber 2023, Craig Wright tried to make a version of the Bitcoin whitepaper in Latex. The below animation shows Craig graudually editing the file, to try to make the formatting match that of the real Bitcoin whitepaper, which was made with Open Office

Conference attendees purchasing BitMEX Research branded coffee at @LNconf in Berlin, using the Lightning Network

For the first time since the ETFs launched on 11th Jan 2024, GBTC is NOT the product with the largest daily outflow Today's ARKB outflow of $88m is larger than GBTC at $82m Congratulations to @BarrySilbert !!

1/ BitMEX Research publishes a new report analysing the Ethereum holdings of the ICO projects. We establish that the ICOs have already sold almost as much US$ worth of Ethereum as they initially raised. Data compiled with help from @thetokenanalyst blog.bitmex.com/ethereum-hol…

Ethereum 2.0 Ethereum 2.0 is set to launch as early as July 2020, assuming no further delays. Given the decision to scale via sharding, we believe there is little choice other than to attempt this incredibly complex multi-year transition to a new network blog.bitmex.com/ethereum-2-0…

A Complete History of Bitcoin’s Consensus Forks We list 19 Bitcoin consensus rule changes, which represents what we believe to be almost every significant such event in Bitcoin’s history. At least three of these incidents resulted in a chain split blog.bitmex.com/bitcoins-con…

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 19 March 2024 All data in. Record net outflow of $326m

[1/3] New Book Published: The Blocksize War We are delighted to announce a new book. The book covers the major twists and turns of Bitcoin’s blocksize war, which raged for over 2 years, from 2015 to 2017 The book is available to purchase on Amazon now: amazon.com/dp/B08YQMC2WM

Bitcoin Blocksize Data Visualization After the upgrade to SegWit in August 2017, although in a much slower fashion than many had hoped, the old 1MB blocksize limit is slowly starting to fade away, as our new chart with data to July 2018 illustrates. blog.bitmex.com/the-segwit-t…

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 24 Feb 2024 All data now in, except perhaps for the Galaxy/Invesco product Friday was a strong day, with +$232.3m of net inflow. Also, the outflow for GBTC was just $44m, lowest level since 11th Jan

[1/5] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 28th Feb 2024 All data in. Today was a record inflow day, with $673.4m of net inflow. This was driven by Blackrock, which also had a record day, with $612.1m of inflow

[1/6] 📚📚NEW BOOK PUBLISHED📚📚 Reckless: The Story Of Cryptocurrency Interest Rates blog.bitmex.com/reckless-the…

COPA Vs CSW Breaking news! The court of appeal has rejected CSWs application to appeal

Call me Ishmael 8 Bitcoin brainwallets were created, using passphrases from popular works of fiction. All the funds were quickly swept away & in one case the funds were taken in 0.67 seconds If you need to use a brainwallet, don’t choose anything poetic blog.bitmex.com/call-me-ishm…

9 years on...

The Bitcoin Cash chain has split into two chains. A hardfork occurred at block 582,679, however since that block, upgraded and non-upgraded nodes have split onto different chains. The Bitcoin Cash network may not currently be safe for payments forkmonitor.info/nodes/bch

Fighting talk from Gregory Maxwell on the Core v Knots spam debate...

* HBO will shortly claim someone as Satoshi * HBO's prediction will be better than just finding someone in the phone book called Satoshi (Leah McGrath Goodman) & it wont be an obvious fraudster (CSW) * HBO will pick someone who said smart stuff about electronic cash years ago, statements when considered without context could support a claim to be Satoshi, but with context, just puts then in a group with many other people * HBO will not have any new compelling evidence * HBO will be wrong

GBTC positive flow: $27m

Does Satoshi have a million bitcoin? Although the evidence is far less robust than many assume, there is reasonable evidence that a single dominant miner in 2009 could have generated around 700,000 bitcoin. 1 million bitcoin may be an overestimate blog.bitmex.com/satoshis-1-m…

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 27 Feb 2024 All data now in. $576.8m net inflow on 27th Feb, very strong day. Blackrock alone had $520m inflow Total net inflow since 11th Jan 2024 now $6,726.1m for the ETFs

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 12th Feb Strong day on 12th Feb, with +$493.3m flow over all products

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow data All data out for day 11. $14.8m net inflow in day 11

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 14 March 2024 GBTC Outflow $257m (Craig is NOT Satoshi)

On the other hand, maybe it's a $2 trillion ecosystem precisely because the protocol rules are so hard to change

Proof-of-Work is NOT needed to validate transactions. When you receive funds, your wallet should validate the incoming transaction Proof-of-Work is system which decides between conflicting VALID transactions produced around the same time

Diagram of a Bitcoin block We present an illustration of a Bitcoin block, including the Merkle trees. We explain why the 2nd Merkle tree in the block is necessary. We then take a closer look at some of the negatives of both overt & covert AsicBoost blog.bitmex.com/graphical-il…

However, according to this fantastic report by the research team at @chainalysis, 10x more Bitcoin Cash coins are held for investment purposes, rather than for transactions. In Bitcoin the equivalent ratio is 1:1. blog.chainalysis.com/money-s…

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 07 March 2024 All data in. Net total inflow of $472.6m. Another strong day, with Fidelity performing well, with +$473.4m of flow Over $10 billion withdrawn from GBTC since 11th Jan 2024

Congratulations to Arthur, Ben, Sam and Greg cnbc.com/2025/03/28/trump-pa…

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 04 March 2024 All data in. Very strong day with +$562m net flow. Fidelity very strong with a record day Not the best day for diversity, with smaller players BTCO, HODL & BTCW all having outflows

The same thing was suggested in 2016 when Bitfinex suffered a hack of 120,000 BTC. Read the comments from back then, which explain some of the potential negative consequences of a re-org like this. teddit.net/r/Bitcoin/comment…

Bitcoin is now at block height 630,000, the 3rd halving has occurred! 🌗🌗🌗 The block r̵e̵w̵a̵r̵d̵ subsidy has now fallen to 6.25 BTC, from 12.5 BTC Blockhash = 000000000000000000024bead8df69990852c202db0e0097c1a12ea637d7e96d forkmonitor.info

The Lightning Network We explain the motivation behind the creation of LN and why its scaling characteristics are superior, potentially resulting in a transformational improvement. We look at LNs limitations, including the downside of inferior security blog.bitmex.com/the-lightnin…

[1/3] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 26th Feb 2024 All data in. Strong day with $520m net inflow Total net inflow since 11th Jan is $6,030m.

SBF Trial – 10th October 2023 – Caroline Ellison Testimony Just like with other witnesses, quick admission of crimes at the start: Q. When you were working at Alameda, did you commit any crimes A. Yes, we did. Q. When you say "we," who do you mean by "we"? A. I mean Sam and I and others. Q. What kinds of crimes did you commit with Sam? A. Fraud, conspiracy to commit fraud, and money laundering. Q. Who did you defraud? A. The customers of FTX, the investors in FTX, and lenders to Alameda. Q. And just to be clear, did you commit these crimes alone? A. No. They were committed with Sam. … Q. What are some of the ways that Alameda was able to steal customer money? A. We had access to an essentially unlimited line of credit on FTX, and we received FTX customer funds directly into our bank accounts as part of the FTX fiat deposit system. Q. And what was the defendant's role in taking that money and spending it on Alameda? A. He was the one who set up the systems that allowed Alameda to take the money, and he was the one who directed us to take customer money to repay our loans. … Q. You said you defrauded Alameda's lenders with the defendant. How did you defraud Alameda's lenders? A. I sent balance sheets to our lenders at the direction of Sam that incorrectly stated the amount of our assets and our liabilities and made Alameda's balance sheet look less risky than it really was.

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 26 March 2024 All data in. Strong day with $418m net inflow.

GBTC Flow - 08 May 2024 Zero

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow - 14th Feb 2024 All data in. Another strong day, with +$340m net flow for all the Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow - Day 13 All data in. Another strong day with +$247m of net flow overall Some uncertainty about the Fidelity flow figure. Will look into later @EricBalchunas

Bitcoin ETF Flow - Day 14 All flow data out. Net +$198m inflow for all providers

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 21 March 2024 GBTC Outflow $359m

[1/3] Bitcoin ETF Flow - Up to 22 Feb 2024 All data in. +$251.4m net flow on 22nd Feb. A strong day.

List of 42 Bitcoin fork tokens Although in 2018 Bitcoin may have somewhat moved on beyond this issue, in this sixth piece on consensus forks and chainsplits, we provide a list of 42 tokens which seem to have forked away from Bitcoin blog.bitmex.com/42-bitcoin-f…

Tracking US$24 billion Of Tokens ICO Teams Gave Themselves In collaboration with @thetokenanalyst, this report focuses on the treasury balances of the ICO tokens. Teams issued themselves US$24.2 billion of their own tokens, now worth around US$5 billion blog.bitmex.com/tracking-us-…

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 18 March 2024 GBTC Outflow $643m

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 06 March 2024 All data in. $332m net inflow on 6th March.

Please see below the exhibit, with the code showing the random number field in the formula to calculate the FTX insurance fund figure to publish

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 10 April 2024 GBTC Outflow $18m

Two men leave Deutsche Bank's offices in London earlier today, following 18,000 job cuts. Interesting design on the bag carrying home their possessions As per the FT ft.com/content/65cfe4ec-a144…

On 18th April 2019, our Bitcoin Cash SV node experienced 2 block re-organisations. First a 3 block re-organisation, followed by a 6 block re-organisation. The below graphic illustrates the events. It includes the block heights, block hashes & block sizes of the relevant blocks.

Bitcoin SV appears to have had a 210MB block. This may have sent our node offline and we are struggling to restart it. Other Bitcoin SV block explorers also appear to be down forkmonitor.info/nodes/bsv bsvexplorer.info/ hugeblock.info/ bchsv.tokenview.com/en/block…

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 11 March 2024 All data in. A strong day with $505.5m net inflow. Blackrock again leading with $562.9m of inflow

$GBTC was just about to lose its crown as the largest Bitcoin ETF to $IBIT and then out of nowhere, it has its first inflow day!!

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 13 March 2024 All data in. Another strong day, with $684m of net inflow

BitMEX Research is now running 3 lightning nodes Node 1: 0287416bd553ff2630ff54640e3a7e4230d632387039313bf5a24d7df2006e13c2 Node 2: 0395033b252c6f40e3756984162d68174e2bd8060a129c0d3462a9370471c6d28f Node 3: 03b38f5fb693ae96fda9533c7ba45840c0afc4390544223a18dd676d858bfd5b15

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 18 March 2024 All data in. $154m net outflow. First outflow day since 1st March. Biggest disappointment was Fidelity inflow appears to be declining, just $5.9m on the day, a record low.

Bitcoin ETF Flow - 09 April 2024 GBTC Outflow $155m

[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 16th Feb 2024 All data in. Another strong day with +$331.7m net flow. For the week its +$2,273.4m net flow Total net flow since 11th Jan is +$4,926.9m nitter.app/BitMEXResearch/status/…