Emperor of @YetAnotherValue. Part time podcast host / blogger; Full time Cookie Monster.
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- Followers 36,915
- Likes 3,175
$KKR on giving employees of portfolio companies ownership. Some really interesting behavioral psychology here.
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My #1 prediction for 2022: deep value retail & cyclical commodities outperform. Simply too cheap, and most are returning capital aggressively in some forms (generally divs for the commodities; repos for the retailers).
Any favorite names for those themes I should be looking at?
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The $PSTH / $UMG deal is insanely complex. A conspiracy theorist might wonder if the complexity is intentional to hide some value....
I tried my best to break down the deal here; I'd love to hear from you if you notice something I'm missing!
yetanothervalueblog.substack…
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At $90/share, $GME is worth barely more than NBA 2K21 ($70). It's still cheaper than a Nintendo Switch or Xbox.
291% upside to my $350 target price, equivalent to the cost of a PS4.
I know it's conservative to price based on a last gen console, but I am a value investor!
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Just a casual multi-hundred million dollar option package granted to $DISCA's CEO the day before announcing a hundred billion dollar mega merger. Totally chill; nothing to see here. Right @NonGaap ?
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
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Cannot believe one man covering a short can move the treasury market like it's a penny microcap.
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Repurchasing shares in a bear market can create tons of shareholder value. Unfortunately, most companies stop buybacks when markets drop and investors generally don't know until earnings released months later
It's frustrating... but I do know one trick to check intra-q buybacks!
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Legit mind-blowing to me that $CCIV / Lucid (one of the best performing SPACs of all times) appears to have come together because Bloomberg wrongly reported they were in merger talks, but they saw the report and thought "yeah, that makes sense, let's do it!"
(h/t @DJohnson_CPA )
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Every time I open the ESPN website, I'm tempted to short $DIS out of pure spite.
You have to watch a 30 second ad just to watch a 15 second highlight... and because their ad targeting is either non-existent or nonsensical, the ad is always completely irrelevant.
Just awful.
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No position, but been a while since I've seen the type of "bet on yourself and make multi-generational wealth" PSUs $HROW just gave out
Stock closed at ~$30; CEO gets ~890k shares (~3% of company, ~$90m pretax) if stock touches $100... but gets 0 if stock doesn't hit $50
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I get $NFLX valuation is tough from a long standpoint... but continue to have no idea how anyone could short it. They can literally buy rejects from other services and turn them into the #1 show in America. That's an insane moat / value creation opp.
forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2…
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Not every day you see a director buying >$1m of stock on the open market with a stock up ~700% over the past year $SMCI
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Some *minor* personal news....
Yet Another Value Blog announces temporary suspension of trading alongside spin-off
yetanothervalueblog.com/p/ye…
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Excited to announce @ByrneHobart and I are going to trial the nerdiest book club in history next month: fintwit book club
We're each reading More Than a Numbers Game (amzn.to/4gUn65Z) and will record a pod discussing it and addressing listener questions in mid-January.
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Try not to post personal stuff on here but it’s Thursday night and I’ve had a few white claws so why not. Can’t wait to get married in one month!
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A ~decade ago, Munger talked about $WFC being the opportunity cost for Berkshire; every time Buffett looked at a new idea, he compared it to simply buying more Wells.
I've been thinking about the concept of an "opportunity cost" stock recently; what stock serves as yours?
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The new analyst is catching on quickly! The podcast should return this week, and she’s promised to try to keep the crying in the background to a minimum.
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One area I've seen a lot of dislocation? Preferred stocks.
I've looked at quite a few today (may write some up soon); most imply scenarios dramatically worse than currently priced in common.
Any particular preferreds I should look at? Or other areas of dislocation to hunt in?
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Finally read the $RH call everyone's freaking out about
Feels like if you're rolling out custom Gulfstreams & luxury yachts for charter while ranting about the fed and comparing today to the eve of the GFC, you've probably been hitting your own champagne and caviar bars too hard
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Thought bubble for weekend: as athletes get more advanced, training becomes more specialized and diet / sleep becoming increasingly important to maximize performance.
If you're an "advanced" investor, what are some things beyond basics (like reading 10-Ks) you can do to improve?
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Spent a lot of the weekend thinking about (what else?) the @BillAckman $PSTH / UMG deal. Posted some updated thoughts and some additional details on all the moving parts here:
yetanothervalueblog.substack…
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I’ve tried to make this account nearly exclusively finance related, but I’m afraid today that must change.
Penny arrived this afternoon, and my account will likely be 100% puppy focused for the foreseeable future.
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This post (Divorce, Denial, Dissonance Reduction) from @NeckarValue was just unbelievably good. Can't recommend it enough
neckar.substack.com/p/divorc…
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On the heels of the $OAK / $BAM deal, I know what you're all wondering... what are the odds someone was up past midnight last night writing a 20+ page investment thesis on $KKR that now looks a bit outdated?
Probably higher than you would have guessed!
yetanothervalueblog.com/2019…
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Incredible first earnings for $GOEV.
CFO resigned, analyst asks if CEO is still employed, new strategy "contradiction" due to losing key partner they pitched to deSPAC + admitting to bogus projections
Somehow market cap >$2B
Hilariously, CEO thinks this is the future for SPACs
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Today’s post (and this tweet) are my last work things for 2021. A little frustration from some big misses on my end this year, but overall a fun and profitable year.
I’ll be spending the rest of the night with my wife and penny, but I can’t wait for 2022. See y’all then!
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Here's a fun fact:
$AMC has sold ~56m shares of stock this year.
Globally, they've sold 67.1m movie tickets through Q3.
AMC just registered to sell another 200m shares; if they move quickly enough, it's possible they've sold more stock than movie tickets by year end.
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Plenty of buzz on the insane $LCAP deal / structure (I agree w/ most of it), but people are overlooking the craziest thing:
This is a SPAC w/ $230m in trust; >30% ($70m) is eaten by transaction costs.
With no PIPE, this is a deal designed to pay sponsors and bankers. Egregious.
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Rereading the FTC / $AMZN complaint, and I still can't believe an entire section is devoted to explaining how Amazon is a monopoly and must be brought down because they offer a much better experience than brick-and-mortar shopping.
It's basically a 1999 VC investment thesis
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$BAM thinks their shares are ~25% undervalued, will compound at ~24% IRR over next five years (includes discount closing), will generate enough excess cash to buy back entire market cap over next 10 years.
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I'm not the first to point this out, but the $AZO buyback program is absolutely insane
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Not sure I've ever seen anything like what's happening at $PLCE.
Company reports awful Q4 and liquidity issues, stock cracks.... and a new shareholder steps in and buys >50% of the company in three days, creating a Change of Control / default under credit agreements.
Wild
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Brookfield "optimistic" they will collect "the vast majority" of rents not paid in April and May.
Given where retail real estate stocks are trading, statement either implies 1) one of the greatest investing opportunities of all time or 2) $BPY is living in a fantasy world.
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Last week, @BillAckman said he was looking to buy an "iconic" business and they'd been working on a deal since November
Given those criteria, and admitting that the potential company list is huge and calling a deal is a longshot... here are my top 10 most likely $PSTH targets:
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Looks like $NYCB finally got the memo: if you're facing a run, insiders better buy stock.
This was filed at 9:51 AM. So exec chair literally smashed the buy button at the open and then told his legal time to file a form 4 ASAP.
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I get asked all the time how to break into finance. My top advice: get the finance basics down, and then start a @FinTwitSubstack and start consistently writing. Why?
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Beachbody (company behind Insanity / P90X) is going public through $FRX, and they chose a very realistic set of competitors to comp themselves to.
Sure, $DIS has Marvel, but Beachbody has Hip Hop Abs. In what world is that brand not worth 50x EBITDA?
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
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I've been looking at a bunch of value retail / cyclical names. And I guess the #1 question I'm coming at is: what am I missing?
Seems like market is pricing in an imminent deep recession for all of these; w/o that, the math of the valuation + cash flow returns seems overwhelming
My #1 prediction for 2022: deep value retail & cyclical commodities outperform. Simply too cheap, and most are returning capital aggressively in some forms (generally divs for the commodities; repos for the retailers).
Any favorite names for those themes I should be looking at?
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This was incredible. The Fyre Festival Of Capitalism - ValueSeeker64 | Seeking Alpha seekingalpha.com/instablog/5…
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Everyone loves insider buys / purchases.... but is there any study that shows the returns when a company puts out a PR highlighting insider purchases?
Because I feel like it's the biggest 🚩I know of and the stock invariably goes straight down after the PR.
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Recently went on a fraud book reading binge: Billion dollar whale, Smartest Guys in Room, Bad Blood, Wizard of lies. Any recommendations for other fraud books?
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Seriously, I'm not sure if the FTC is suing Amazon as a monopoly, or initiating on them with a buy rating
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Anything Gates has to say on Corona is must listen, but this pod was particularly good. For my money, Gates has the best blend of pragmatism / knowledge / rationality/ guarded optimism of any "expert" (though if you know of a better one I'd love to hear!)
vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/…
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One of my expert calls on UMG / $PSTH is publicly available (thanks @_inpractise!)
This call was really interesting and I learned a ton, but here's the best soundbite: explaining why he'd buy UMG over $SPOT at current prices because of UMG's unbelievable catalog.
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I would like to thank everyone for reaching out on $TWTR, but I am operating under Michael Myers from Halloween rules: I will not assume this is over until I see the body (the cash hits my account).
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Here's a trick if you're following a company that buys back shares and want to see if they're leaning into or slowing down buybacks post-Q: go to 10-Q and compare shares out at filing date to shares at balance sheet date.
For example, you can see $AAPL retired ~26k shares here.
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Markets may be melting down, but an analysts forgetting to mute and getting caught playing with his dogs while "participating" on the $UNIT earnings call still cracks me up.
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Excited to have @BR_Kelleran on the podcast tomorrow.
We'll be talking @PhilMickelson's favorite California offshore oil driller, $SOC.
Any questions on Sable?
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Every now and then when I watch the MCU, I try to imagine what investing would be like in that world.
"In response to half the population disappearing, the Fed announced an emergency 50 bps rate cut today"
"We are pulling Q4 guidance because NYC got evaporated by aliens"
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Doing a space weds night (June 23) to talk $psth $umg. Hoping some music experts like @GWInvestors and @SleepwellCap will join; heck, maybe @BillAckman will make an appearance!
Stop by to breakdown the presentation and answer any lingering questions! nitter.app/i/spaces/1jMKgpXpDRmGL
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Some final pre-deal $PSTH / UMG thoughts
yetanothervalueblog.substack…
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Excited to have my friend @1MainCapital back on the podcast this afternoon.
We'll be doing an update on $IWG as well as talking markets in general.
Any questions for Yaron?
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Happy to announce it's going to be regulatory week on YAVP.
Scheduled to have:
- @BrianCAlbrecht to discuss the $KR / $ACI merger Tuesday
- MDC with a post-trial $JBLU / $SAVE wrap up Weds
- @LionelHutz_Esq with a look at the $LQDA hearing (exact date TBD)
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My god this exchange between @DanielSLoeb1 and @aaronvalue is legendary (and the rest of the article on missing $DIS is well worth reading too!)
mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/…
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I love that Leon Cooperman is 80 and still dialing into conference calls to yell at shorts / congratulate management teams.
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I think post-deSPAC equities / warrants are going to present some of the best opportunities for mispricing going forward.
Any deSPAC companies / warrants that are particularly interesting I should be looking at currently?
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Excited to have @joshyoung on the podcast tmr. We'll be talking about oil in general and thesis on Journey Energy ( $JRNGF) in particular.
Any questions for Josh?
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Yet another guide to media stocks: The Intro and cord cutting
yetanothervalueblog.com/2019…
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Caved and looked at the @Spotify Wrapped for the @YetAnotherValue Podcast.
YAVP was the top podcast for 321 people. Obviously it's not the biggest podcast, but it's still really cool to have so many engaged fans
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New tweet I'm going to try monthly:
What's your favorite special situation right now (and why)?
I'll pick my favorite and either do a quick write up on them later this month (will attribute!) or shamelessly steal the idea for my portfolio (perhaps both!)
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Obviously took a big L here; some thoughts on the loss and the trial
Disappointment, process over outcome, and closing out $SAVE
yetanothervalueblog.com/p/di…
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Had some long train rides this weekend and was rereading Smartest Guys in the Room.
For very obvious / timely reasons, this part on the EES (Enron Energy Services) analyst day jumped out at me.
amzn.to/2GyygPA
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Monthly special situations tweet:
What's your favorite special situation right now (and why)?
I'll pick my favorite and either do a quick write up on them later this month (will attribute!) or shamelessly steal the idea for my portfolio (perhaps both!)
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In 2011, $MSFT was trading like a dying company. It had a ~10x P/E, and "is Windows / Office dying?" was a popular question.
That set the stock up for an absolutely epic run; it's >4x better than the S&P over the past 10 years.
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The most popular investment thesis I have heard over the past week?
"This company will almost certainly get added to a @CathieDWood ETF ( $ARKK or the space one), and if it gets included it'll explode; you get a free option on inclusion."
Heard it for 4 companies. Wild times.
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Fun $GME fact #1: Ryan Cohen owns ~9m shares. Stock only needs to hit ~$15k/share to make him the richest man in the world.
At it's current rate of doubling every day, that'll happen next Thursday.
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Excited to have my friend @evantindell back on the podcast tmr. We'll be talking his investment in $BTI.
Any questions for Evan?
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For $PSTH related reasons, I've been reading lots of expert calls / transcripts on the music industry. Here are my three favorite quotes so far
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Damn, 200 episodes down!
When I started this at the depths of COVID, no idea how much fun I'd have doing this or all the cool people I'd meet through it.
And this episode was one of the most fun of all 200; @DieHardCapital was on fire!
Podcast #200 is up! @DieHardCapital discusses the opportunity in publicly traded real estate
yetanothervalueblog.com/p/bi…
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Podcast #4 with @scuttleblurb is up. We talk about his research process and then dive deep into $CVNA
In your face @BillBrewsterSCG
Spotify: spoti.fi/3inuOaC
iTunes: apple.co/2XPyA4x
Youtube: bit.ly/3adozTM
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I think Ackman had a quote recently along the lines of "we've never lost money investing in restaurants" but I can't find it; any one have the source?
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I’ve been wearing a @WHOOP for health tracking for ~2 years. Have worn it through fitness competitions that lasted >6 hours and all day beer Olympics (which aren’t exactly light on the body!)
Based on my recovery stats, nothing matches the toll on the body of having a newborn!
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Comcast: buy the cable business, get everything else for (almost) free? $CMCSA
yetanothervalueblog.com/2020…
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Have $RICK bulls appropriately adjusted their models for James Harden getting traded to Brooklyn?
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Jefferies takes their price target for $GME from $15/share to... $175/share.
Their new downside target ($50) is >3x their old price target.
Has to be the largest price bump ever, right?
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