Tweets are informational only, never investment advice.
- Tweets 8,713
- Following 653
- Followers 34,447
- Likes 73,600
Added a junior analyst to our investment team this weekend. He’s about to add so much alpha it’s scary to even think about.
78
7
1,474
De Beers forced into rare 10-15% price cut as falling Chinese demand and rising supply of lab-made gems sink wholesale diamond prices by 40% in past 2 years
14
103
709
130,008
Call me naive, but I never would have believed this was festering in the US this badly if someone had tried explaining it to me 6 weeks ago.
54
13
456
313,890
Imagine being an LP in BlueCrest, having your money returned in 2016, and then seeing it put up these numbers over the next 6 years.
19
26
454
175,206
$AMZN went from 1.6m employees to 1.5m in a single quarter. Reduction of 99k people in a single quarter.
Impressive pivot on costs...
23
29
372
From 1937 to 1950 the S&P 500 did next to nothing. Then, over the next 20 years, it went up more than 6x.
From 1970 to 1982 the S&P did next to nothing. Then, over the next 18 years it went up 13x.
From 2000 to 2013, the S&P did next to nothing...
15
95
375
Why does $amzn need an $8bn term loan for one year?
sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edg…
55
26
318
180,805
Serious May 2020 vibes right now.
Everyone absolutely convinced this is bear market rally.
73
6
321
210,883
A business that has to reinvest almost all of its FCF to grow 5% is NOT the same as a business that has to reinvest almost none of its FCF to grow 5%.
That is all.
8
41
292
There’s no such thing as a perfect investment. It’s all about deciding which risks you can live with and at what price.
15
28
294
The worst of fintwit are the “I told you so” grave dancers who don’t share their own ideas and find pleasure in other ppl’s pain.
They always seem to multiply when the market is down, and push away those who add the most value here.
Hopefully Elon finds a way to get rid of em.
40
15
278
If you are a fundamental investor, don't buy a stock where you can't form a view on a normal earnings release or 8-k on your own.
If you need to look at the stock price or hear other people's opinions on a bit of news to know if its good or bad, you are the patsy at the table...
15
20
276
Hi Piers, I pray that nobody ever tries to murder you or your loved ones.
But if they do try, then you’ll understand that intent is sufficient to warrant a strong response.
I guarantee you won’t make public statements suggesting that the criminals should be let off the hook.
12
7
257
18,750
Jefferies:
HF long/short spread is -10% over two days. That's the 2nd worst two day move ever. Stating the obvious, but max pain/chase. 3+ standard dev moves all over the place...pain/chase levels are 10 out of 10
6
30
263
115,311
GS on $AMZN: as an interesting framework for its after-hours valuation, its EV (when applied to our 2023 AWS rev and OI forecasts) would be a 13x AWS revenue on 25% ’23 YoY growth and ~43x AWS GAAP OI on 20% ’23 YoY growth – this would value the non-AWS Amazon businesses at zero.
12
20
257
Sure, but banks don’t invest client deposits in ponzi schemes. They issue loans w recourse to real, cash flowing assets that provide society w some form of utility.
68
2
224
SBC is a financing decision and if gaap simply moved the associated add back from CFO to the financing section of the cash flow statement 75% of FCF debates would be squashed.
23
15
254
Right, only “the donors” found her testimony to be deeply disturbing. Nobody else did
11
1
228
13,755
Laughable that those who benefit individually from an asset bubble’s creation want us to believe that, upon its demise, everyone will suffer together.
9
20
237
79,909
Q3'21 letter is up.
1maincapital.com/s/Q321-lett…
19
14
245
As promised, here is my $KKR model. It is one of my fav positions over the next 3-5 years. Open to questions or feedback on any assumptions.
Disclosure: I am long and often wrong, do your own due diligence.
drive.google.com/file/d/1KA7…
Maybe I’ll post my detailed model and valuation framework tomorrow so people can throw some shade my way. Been a while.
13
12
240
$KKR -40% in 1H’22 was not on my bingo card. Absolute bargain here imo.
28
6
237
Almost all of the excess job openings are in businesses with 250 employees or less.
16
40
229
79,551
$QQQ lost 1/3 of its value in just 14 trading days in 2000. From there, it proceeded to lose 75% more over the next ~2 yrs.
In a 6-wk period, Druck, one of the best HF managers of all time lost $3bn.
If you think you'll know when to get out of bubble names, just remember this:
13
28
229
“Our slowing revenue growth means we are also having to slow our cost growth as a company,” Netflix said in an emailed statement. “So sadly, we are letting around 150 employees go today, mostly US-based.”
$NFLX
10
32
223
“We calculate about 40% of the US equity market can only survive with new buyers entering the market bc they’re not cash flow generating…near a historic high and right in line with 1999/2000.”
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
8
20
213
If I told you in Feb 2020 that over the next 3 years, $ZM revenues would increase 8-fold and net income would grow from $0 to >$1bn, with the starting valuation of $20bn...
...what portion of your net worth would you have bet that the stock would be up?
43
3
205
It’s easy to sometimes forget that supply vs demand is the only thing that matters for price of a given asset. Fundamentals only matter to a co’s stock price to the extent they’re the main driver of supply v demand for shares. Important to recognize when other factors take over.
9
11
199
10% EPS growth in a country where inflation is 6% is not the same as 10% EPS growth in a country where inflation is 2%.
That is all.
4
14
199
Investors would be better off if they ignored pretty much every single addback except maybe amortization of acquired intangibles.
Adjusted EPS is basically a scam. So is adjusted FCF.
19
8
196
Charlie munger tells us we should constantly be adding new mental models to our toolbox. One of my fav sleeper models is looking for companies that can grow revs rapidly without a corresponding increase in share count. Revenue per share, if you will.
What are some of yours?
23
10
195
RIP to the person(s) who thought it was a good idea to pay 140 for a 100 year sovereign bond with a 0.85% coupon in late 2020.
19
11
190
Transcript: Joel Greenblatt in conversation with Barry Ritholtz (October 11, 2020) ritholtz.com/2020/10/transcr…
5
17
191
Liberation day - where anyone w just a little bit of fortitude can turn $2k into $1.5m in a couple of hours
7
6
189
46,338
This is what anyone calling for a ceasefire is advocating for:
Hamas Official Ghazi Hamad: We Will Repeat the October 7 Attack Time and Again Until Israel Is Annihilated; We Are Victims - Everything We Do Is Justified #Hamas #Gaza #Palestinians
10
53
180
41,379
"With apologies to Mr. Buffett, $HHH would become a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway that would acquire controlling interests in operating companies*"
*apologies to Mr. Buffett bc he never had the wits (or audacity) to charge investors a 1.5% mgmt fee on $BRK mkt cap
@thepupil11
8
13
184
38,450
Call me a permabull, but I think there are a lot of things out there priced to deliver v solid 3-5 year base case IRRs...
12
2
179
Just because someone loud or smart-sounding is pounding the table on a stock, it doesn’t mean they know what they are talking about or that they are right. Trust but verify. Do your own work.
11
12
165
Just finished Ted Lasso. Epic show. Anyone who hasn’t watched, stop everything and get to it. You won’t regret it.
11
8
157
Q4'21 letter is up.
1maincapital.com/s/Q421-lett…
16
8
164
Its sad that so many ppl find it so hard to condemn the recent barbaric actions of a designated terrorist org that chants death to America.
Ofc there is nuance to Israel/Palestinian conflict, but there is zero nuance re hamas.
Hamas doesn’t care about civilians, incl it’s own.
8
11
158
27,535
When I was a young analyst, I used to love catching up w someone who just got out of a 1x1 w mgmt or just spoke w a very knowledgeable industry expert.
Then I realized two people can be in the same exact meeting and walk away with wildly varying views on what mgmt said.
DYODD.
5
4
161
A huge part of investing is just deciding which risks you are willing to live with and at what price.
8
14
160
If you ever think to yourself “I’d buy this name down 50% from here” - stop yourself right there.
You won’t.
23
3
157
Many companies have pushed pricing way too far too fast. Margins may have expanded in the short term, but demand destruction and/or margin normalization is coming - especially in higher ticket discretionary areas of spend.
Caveat emptor.
11
11
159
44,671
“In order to fund our purchase of Netflix, beginning on Friday and over the last few days, we unwound the substantial majority of our interest rate hedge generating proceeds of $1.25 billion.”
🐐
We recently purchased more than 3.1m shares of @Netflix which makes us a top-20 holder. I have long admired Reed Hastings and the remarkable company he and his team have built. We are delighted that the market has presented us with this opportunity. assets.pershingsquareholding…
9
1
157
Moving averages be damned, stocks still just represent an ownership interest in a business and are worth the present value of future cash flows
20
5
149
If the Ackman NFLX bump isn't proof that all stocks (even megacaps) really are just trading sardines, then I don't know what is...
12
3
149
If you need 10 pages to explain an investment, you should assume it will stay mispriced until it can be explained in 1-2 pages.
Doesn't mean it cant go up as intrinsic value compounds, but multiple expansion will be harder to come by.
16
11
154
40,208
Cheers to all the single manager analysts who are going to get asked by their PM if they know why a particular stock is down 4% today
5
5
148
46,588
$KKR out with a new deck today, showing they think the current earnings power of the biz = $6 per share. Should grow a lot over time...
6
17
154
68,815
Maturing as an investor is ignoring the urge to average down and dispassionately evaluating the new setup at current prices regardless of what your cost basis is
11
11
145
27,976
I've been a long-time reader of Graham and Doddsville. Really enjoyed the opportunity to have the convo with them and be profiled.
Read the latest issue of Graham & Doddsville
business.columbia.edu/sites/…
14
7
144
55,770
I've seen some confusion on why higher inventory balances (BS item) would lead to potentially overstated margins for manufacturers (IS item).
Most manufacturers use something called absorption costing, which entails allocating ALL costs associated with mfg a product to COGS.
13
10
144
Roark puts $200m into $CAKE in return for
-1% commitment fee
-9.5% div (cash or pik)
-participation in common dividends on as converted basis
-convertible to common stock at $22.23, 18.75% above last close but 56% below 52 wk high
Not a bad way to put money to work...
6
14
142
Not usually a Cathie basher, but she thinks her holdings are priced to deliver 40% IRRs over the next five years even after taking into account “massive multiple compression”
10
4
137
$GOOG prob doubles again in 3 years (maybe less). I waited until after the call to hit send, @GavinSBaker
3
5
139
$IWG is the most mispriced business I own. If it was listed in the US, I think stock would be 2x current levels.
13x run-rate FCF isn't the lowest valuation by any means - but the cos managed partnership model has found product market fit and is starting to meaningfully inflect.
9
14
142
99,033
Low probability existential threats don’t have to actually materialize for them to impair your capital.
The expected probability just has to rise to a level that makes you uncomfortable enough to a point at which you choose to sell for a loss.
7
9
143
47,862
A crazy thing about markets is that even execs + board members who have near perfect information about their company many times have zero clue what expectations are baked into their share price or how their stock will react to new info being revealed broadly to investors.
7
5
130
Something I struggle with is when a biz that grows its per share value rapidly, and that I want to own for 5+ yrs, appreciates a lot rapidly such that my fwd IRR est comes down and it makes it hard for me to #neversell. How do you all handle this (admittedly high class) problem?
45
4
135
He woke up and chose violence
“Bitcoin itself is a hyped-up fraud,” says @jpmorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. “Crypto is a decentralized Ponzi scheme…It’s a pet rock.”
11
14
126
48,544
Anybody who tells you they know how much lower we are going is full of it.
Just know what you own and make sure you know it well enough to hold thru volatility.
And make sure you own it at a price that’ll be likely to generate respectable IRRs over your investment period.
10
2
132
Time to rehash the $KKR long thesis:
1)Unlike other alt managers, KKR leans into its business by using its balance sheet.
2)Using the BS to seed new strategies has helped KKR grow and diversify its AUM – from $23bn of AUM in 2005 to >$200bn currently.
8
22
131
Index funds cant buy more than the weight.
Most active mngrs who are willing to own them are already max weight.
Other active mngrs are unwilling to own them bc of optics.
Employees are structural sellers, while the cos have been hoarding cash instead of buying out employees.
2
5
132