Subscribe to newsletter: mindsetvalue.substack.com CEO of Mindset Capital. Author of The Hard Break: The Case for a 24/6 Lifestyle.
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Let me tell you of a story about Charlie Munger. I had the opportunity to meet him & spend time with him once in 2007. On a whim, I decided to call him in October of 2008 to ask for advice. I had no idea if he would call me back. Well, he did call me back and I was grateful. /1
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Charlie Munger barely knew me, but spent time with me & calmed me down at a critical time and I will be forever grateful. Warren Buffett and Charlie were working on bailouts and saving companies at the time, but he was so generous with his time. How can you help others today? /4
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This is view is quite common among people who think that cannabis robs you of ambition or will make you go crazy. It is all based on either one anecdote or based on a false narrative that has been perpetuated by our government for 70 years. The data easily disproves this.
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Because I invest in cannabis, Chase Bank is closing all of my personal bank accounts, credit cards and even my children's savings accounts. At the same time the President is posting videos about the positives of the endocannabinoid system and legalization.
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Twitter is a Value Stock. My latest research report on the value investment case for $TWTR: mindsetcapital.com/wp-conten…
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Subscriptions are coming to Twitter. The team working on it is code name Gryphon. Buckle up the stock is about to go on an epic run. Hat tip to alli on VIC for finding this: careers.twitter.com/en/work-…
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Charlie Munger told me that bear markets & drawdowns of 40-50% are the price of admission for being an investor and that everyone goes through it. He related his own experience of down 50%. Then in the middle of the call, he said, “I will call you back, Warren is on the line.” /2
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Teenage use of cannabis continues to fall. Legalization of cannabis leads to LESS young people using cannabis.
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Here is Verano’s store in NJ. People literally lined up into the woods. $VRNOF. Thanks Jeff Hoffman with Marathon Partners for the videos!
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I think Trump just posted one GIANT endorsement for hemp and legalizing medicinal cannabis. Wow! truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT… Please correct me if I have this wrong.
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This exchange is amazing and says everything in how Miyamoto views the world:
Q: What kind of boss do you think you are?
A: You mean, if I were a video-game boss?
The interviewer meant being an actual boss at work... newyorker.com/culture/the-ne…
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My interview who breakout money manger Fred Liu @HaydenCapital is up more than 164% this year (I think it might be 200% by now). I learned so much for my talk with him and am grateful for his time. mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/…
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Tough day in the market and seems like the end of the world, right? I know one father of four who just had a stroke & is in bad shape. I know another guy who is about to be a father who has cancer that has metastasized everywhere. Your health is your wealth. Go hug your kids.
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I looked at my phone & wondered if Charlie would call me back. And 15 minutes later he did & spent another 10 minutes talking to me, calming me down. A few weeks later, he sent me a list of money managers with their performance circled, showing me that everyone was suffering. /3
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In 1999, $MSFT grew revenue by almost 30% and saw operating margins of 50%. In 2000, despite a recession and the dot com collapse, revenue still grew 16% with a 48% operating margin. Didn’t stop the stock price from collapsing by 50%. Repeat after me: Valuation matters.
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The market is really good at humbling investors. Be nice, you never know when it is your turn to be humbled.
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The CIO and founder of a $7 billion fund saying he thinks that US cannabis is a slam dunk thesis and that global cannabis sales will increase 5X seems like an important tweet to me.
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As you watch this line wrap around this NJ $CURLF store on the day that adult use is allowed, think about how absurd it is that cannabis stocks have been sold every day ahead of the entire Northeast about to go fully legal. This will happen in every state coming online…
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“Past-year cannabis use has doubled in the U.S., the rate of schizophrenia has remained absolutely stagnant.” What prohibitionists refuse to acknowledge. marijuanamoment.net/marijuan…
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This is wrong on so many levels. The psychosis rate has not gone up with increased cannabis usage, it’s that mentally ill people treat their mental illness with drugs. Correlation without causation. And youth usage has fallen with legalization. Just flat wrong.
I think marijuana is the most insidious of drugs. It is legal in many states, is socially acceptable to many and is relatively easy for kids to hide, access and consume (vape, gummies etc).
But the science is beginning to tell a very ugly story.
We should have never legalized it. But now that it is, I hope we do something to mandate standard toxicity and concentration labeling at a minimum. This stuff is turning a plurality of our kids into zombies.
scientificamerican.com/artic…
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Today was the deadline to register for the Democratic Primary for the U.S. Senate in New York. Senator Schumer now has no reason to fear a progressive re-election challenge, & I think SAFE banking now has better than even odds to pass in the next 90 days. mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/…
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Republicans take note. Cannabis reform is an almost universally popular issue. Look at all the Democrats that won today, they were all in favor of cannabis legalization, and their opponents were either skeptical or outright prohibitionists.
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Target is now selling THC in Minnesota. This is enormous news. It's a pilot, but still...it's Target.
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Imagine a $1 billion revenue opportunity that suddenly unlocked itself and the beneficiaries were four or maybe five companies. One beneficiary may see its cash flow go up by 50%. Then imagine that these stocks fell instead of rising. My latest post: mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/…
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This is amazing: “Tyler Cowen is donating all earnings from this book to a man he met in Ethiopia earlier this year with aspirations to open his own travel business.”
You can pre-order *Stubborn Attachments*, published by Stripe Press, here: amazon.com/Stubborn-Attachme…
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I highly recommend investors research and read about the history of cannabis prohibition and how cannabis was added to the Control Substances Act. It has nothing to do with cannabis and everything to do with targeting minorities and people opposed to the Nixon administration.
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I have a colonoscopy scheduled next week and frankly I'm grateful at how well prepared I am for the experience by being invested in cannabis during the last 18 months.
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$MSOS has traded almost 700k shares in the after hours. Just in case you didn't know what has started.
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The potential for a mania in cannabis stocks is very high right now. No one is able to invest. The doors may come crashing down and these stocks can be very illiquid. I was buying across the board today. I think we just started and people have not processed what this means.
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These angry old white men makes me appreciate Warren Buffett's optimism so much more. I keep promising myself to stay positive as I age.
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I learned a lot from my interview with @RepNancyMace. Her own internal polling shows that only a single digit % of conservative SC Republicans oppose cannabis. If the Republicans win the House, she is in line for a committee chair, & she has a clear plan: mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/…
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If the Trump administration is really interested in stopping fentanyl, they should legalize medicinal cannabis. When states legalize medicinal cannabis:
1. Overdose deaths drop, 2. Non-medical opioid use falls and 3. Prescription opioid payments drop.
Links in the thread.
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How is it that no one is discussing how $AYRWF somehow got a bank to loan them money at $4.625%?!
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TIL, @rsandler21969 & Eminence Capital launched a new fund to invest in publicly traded US cannabis stocks this month. $60 million target, up to $200 million in capacity. It is a great to see such a successful investor jump into the great American growth story of cannabis.
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I know many, many people who are about as engaged and ambitious as you can possibly imagine who use cannabis.
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OMG, this WSJ article about a pregnant woman with COVID and her doctor fighting to save her and her baby is just gut-wrenching. A must read: wsj.com/articles/young-coron…
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Very excited to share that I interviewed @RepNancyMace today. The recording should drop tomorrow! Let me give you a preview: I was completely blown away by her vision, determination and strategy. I could not have been more impressed by her and what she has planned.
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Morgan Stanley has banned clients from sending money to my cannabis fund. Somehow one investor's capital got through & now MS is now requesting a recall. MS's financial crime division is on the case! This is the state of Federal banking and cannabis.
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Bought more $NTDOY this morning. 24% of its market cap is in cash at these levels and it trades at 11 times trailing earnings, excluding cash. Dividend increasing. The downside appears to be quite low, upside uncertain with lots of optionality. This is just how I like it.
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How crazy is it that Nordstroms can only borrow at 13%, but Argentina can borrow for 100 years at 7.9%? I wonder which market might be wrong
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I believe that low dose hemp beverages are the battering ram for legalization of cannabis. These drinks are destroying old stigmas and opening markets across the country. Target selling THC drinks is simply an amazing step towards full normalization. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The idea that the DEA goes against the HHS after what they just released seems preposterous, especially in an election year.
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Cannabis is really only opposed by the elderly. Look at the Ohio exit poll numbers for who was in favor of legalization. Shocking disparity by age. And this is why cannabis legalization is inevitable. 84% of 18-29 year olds and 69% of 30-44 year olds are in favor of legalization.
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This is the first time the FDA is admitting that cannabis has medicinal value and benefits. Truly a historic moment. Page 99 starts with the FDA analysis. Thx Kyle Mathews for pointing out the FDA angle to me.
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Can someone tell me why a company with 218% year over year growth and 54% sequential growth with 30% EBITDA margins is trading at 7 times next year's cash flow estimate? $AYRWF is crazy cheap in my humble opinion. Cannabis is the new Saas.
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Let me just say, that I have been very wrong on cannabis for the past 10+ months. Take what I'm saying with a grain of salt, but the potential for MEME type returns on these stocks is very high right now. I cannot imagine being short any cannabis stock right now.
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The NRA: "Marijuana use is no longer limited to the domain of indigenous religious customs or youth-oriented counterculture and now includes a wide variety of people who use it for medicinal or recreational reasons. Many of these individuals are otherwise law-abiding and productive members of their communities and want to exercise their right to keep and bear arms." nraila.org/articles/20250113…
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With the latest news that cannabinoids have the potential to treat COVID, this is your friendly reminder that the Federal government classifies cannabis as a Schedule 1 drug with no medicinal value.
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Just in case this got lost in the haze of Friday afternoon news. I believe this is a really big news for cannabis investors and one of the most positive things I have seen in a long time: marijuanamoment.net/lawyer-w…
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There are people in my life who have switched to cannabis, at least partially. These ppl have never been cannabis consumers, and they now consume less alcohol. This is also lining up with data from alcohol companies and hemp beverage companies' survey data. And I do not see them returning to past behavior anytime soon. And they are telling their friends about it as well. If you pay attention to the signs, you soon realize that this is not a cyclical trend or a fad.
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30% of the cannabis greenhouse licenses in California didn't renew their license last month. 👀 Whoa.
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Oh. My. God. Never in my wildest dreams did I think Trump would pick the most pro-cannabis person possible as Attorney General. The only one who could top that would be appointing @grahamfarrar!
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$NTDOY is quickly turning into an augmented reality company trading at 10-11 times earnings, ex-cash and investments. Mario Kart Live is another AR example. And remember they own 20% of Niantic. polygon.com/2021/3/22/223455…
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It's as if Trump asked @todd_harrison to craft his cannabis post tonight, it is so wildly bullish for the cannabis industry. States rights, SAFE banking and schedule 3 support. And yes, I know Todd, you want descheduling just like me. But still, did you write that for him? 😜
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How in the world does $VRNOF trade at single digit cash flow multiples with 54% EBITDA margins? $35 million of free cash flow in one quarter?! What a well run company.
$207M in revenue.
106% growth YoY.
54% adjusted EBITDA margins translating to $111 million.
1M+ sq ft. of active cultivation & 89 dispensaries.
Incredibly proud of this team.
Join us for the full Q3 results today at 7:30 AM CT: bit.ly/3qCNMkL
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"As I said in March, don’t underestimate @RepNancyMace and now I would add: don’t underestimate how her win may embolden other Republicans to come out in favor of cannabis reform." My latest post: mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/…
Republicans Can Win on Cannabis
The Importance of Nancy Mace’s Primary Win
mindsetvalue.substack.com 8
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This morning we get news from the Financial Times that the White House Drug Czar is studying state level cannabis legalization and harm reduction and now we get news of the DOJ will chime in on cannabis. Sounds like the White House is finally starting to move on cannabis.
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I love @GeorgeArchos commenting that with current growth rates, in 5 years $VRNOF could buy tobacco companies instead of the other way around! I love the ambition! cc @todd_harrison
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I had the opportunity to interview star money manager Fred Liu @HaydenCapital and plan to release the interview through my newsletter mindsetvalue.substack.com/ early next week. Fred was up 164% net of fees through September. With $SE soaring today, he is up much more.
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In May of 2020, at $29.88 per share, I called $TWTR a value stock and wrote this report: mindsetcapital.com/wp-conten… I still think it is a value stock (not in the traditional sense) and cannot believe how much progress the company has made in nine months. I remain very bullish.
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This: "Only like 30 voters will care about Schedule III. Thousands upon thousands, mostly in red states, will be pissed about hemp being banned. If the GOP wants both hemp banned and canna reform to translate into votes, it needs to be deschedule or bust."
Some points on hemp:
1. Nobody is bigger than the plant. The average consumer is most likely to support whichever market gives them the easiest access, which in many states (including many limited license med/rec states) is hemp.
2. Only like 30 voters will care about Schedule III. Thousands upon thousands, mostly in red states, will be pissed about hemp being banned. If the GOP wants both hemp banned and canna reform to translate into votes, it needs to be deschedule or bust.
3. Tweeting at Chuck Schumer and losing money on MSOS calls is not “fighting for reform”
4. For much of this year, many in hemp were pushing for descheduling as opposed to SIII, and they were chastised for it. So nah you can’t say they’ve never pushed for comprehensive reform.
5. Calling people whose products are sold in Target+Total Wine “narcoterrorists” etc is hilariously stupid. Just like some of the maniacally pro hemp people, most of the ardently anti-hemp people are a total embarrassment.
With all that being said I highly doubt the ban can be rescinded/heavily dialed back next year, whether hemp-specific change or descheduling. Now, how do we get that done…
I’d like to think the calls for harmonious collaboration between current large canna & hemp lobbying forces are realistic, but I don’t think they are. Will most MSOs support a true free market that’s likely to erode the limited license advantages their whole biz is built on? Not likely. Will large hempcos built on synthetics support banning those? Obviously not. There needs to be a new coalition created, and many of the preexisting disingenuous lobbying interests from both sides need to be excluded.
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Now that I’m launching a new fund to buy cannabis stocks. I have one minor request to the market. Can you please keep selling US cannabis stocks?
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$GTBIF is a machine. Every cannabis insider I connect with talks positively about the company, its positioning, management and upside. Quarter in and quarter out, they execute.
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Exciting news! $VRNOF's @_AaronMiles_ is going to join me on Twitter Spaces tomorrow (Wednesday) at 5pm eastern/2pm pacific to discuss the big merger today with $GDNSF growth. Let me know what questions you want answers to!
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It’s like I’m back on the courthouse steps in Gwinnett County Georgia in 2011. But this time, the generational opportunity is cannabis. I’m partnering with Doug Brien, the former CEO of Starwood Waypoint for a new cannabis dedicated fund. My latest post: mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/…
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I’m an open book and try to share. I make mistakes like everyone. All I ask is that you are respectful. It’s ok to disagree, just be respectful and be constructive. To everyone who can’t handle that, please stop following me or you will be blocked.
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After 25 years of investing, when stocks don't go down on bad news, it means you are at the bottom. IMHO, the action in $VRNOF could not be more bullish. Last night, I thought the stock might close down 10% today.
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Call me crazy, but I love when fundamentals diverge from stock trading. And yes, I’m looking at you cannabis stocks.
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Why does one of the best run US cannabis companies have the lowest valuation and trade at a 50% discount to its peers? My Q2 letter: mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/…
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Thank you @pmarca for highlighting the de-banking problem. My two funds which invest in legal cannabis companies was just de-banked by Chase and I'm on the banned list at Morgan Stanley (no client can send money to my funds). Please help support SAFE Banking so this stops!
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A mom gets passed up for promotion at a govt job, decides to start a moving company. She gets laughed at, then builds it to over $400 million in revenue. This is great: fortune.com/2017/12/16/two-m…
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This week we may get Biden cannabis pardons, Schumer’s long awaited cannabis bill and a new DOJ Garland memo. (Crazy, fun speculation from someone, me, who has been wrong before)
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I’m old enough to remember when you couldn’t value $NTDOY’s cash pile because investors would never see it. The Apple-ization of $NTDOY continues and for some reason most investors and analysts are blind to it
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We have have two Presidential candidates that may start competing over who is more pro-cannabis.
I'm not sure the market or investors have fully processed just how different this time may be after living through all the Charlie Brown moments of the last 3-4 years.
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I will say it until I'm blue in the face, but the current environment is just so incredible for the leading MSOs like $VRNOF. The smaller players are locked out of the capital markets & Big Tobacco, Alcohol, CPG and PE firms can't participate. I've never seen anything like it
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I just hit 2,800 subscribers to my newsletter that I started one year ago with just 40 people. I’m very grateful for all of the follows and subs. I’m also thankful for the feedback and the critiques. I’m absolutely loving writing the newsletter. Thank you to all!
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Appraisal value of one TX mall:
2001: $144 million
2016: $46 million
Feb. 2017: $34.5 million
Sold for: $18.1 million
How is this stat buried in a story about online auctions?!!!
wsj.com/articles/sign-of-the…
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No matter what happens with Gaetz, it is very clear that just by nominating him, Trump is very much NOT against cannabis reform. And one could also infer that he is probably for cannabis reform. Bodes really well for at a minimum rescheduling to Schedule 3.
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Amazed at the valuation difference between US publicly listed companies and the rest of the world. Almost every stock I'm looking at is outside the US at this point. Really, really large gap.
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I admit to the overboard $VRNOF love fest today, but I want to own the stock for a very long time, this was a very important, strategic acquisition. As this is my largest cannabis position, I could not be happier. Also, how is this not everyone's largest cannabis position?
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It was so fun to hang with @grahamfarrar today. Can’t wait to share what we discussed with everyone! $GLASF
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I'm told that the line at the Curaleaf NJ store that I showed this morning is now at least 50% longer than this morning. Sounds really bearish!
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It is strange to me how much focus is on SAFE and not on the rescheduling/descheduling process. Maybe its just that SAFE is a much more public process. My focus is the scheduling review. And I believe there will be a big reveal by year end.
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Last week started with disappointing news that the DEA essentially delayed rescheduling by setting up a Dec 2nd hearing that pushes any rescheduling into 2025. But that was overshadowed by comments made on Saturday by Trump that he was in support of decriminalizing cannabis.
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I posted my Charlie Munger story in the beginning of COVID when it felt like the world was ending. I will never forget his generosity to me. May his memory be a blessing. I hope you enjoy it.
Let me tell you of a story about Charlie Munger. I had the opportunity to meet him & spend time with him once in 2007. On a whim, I decided to call him in October of 2008 to ask for advice. I had no idea if he would call me back. Well, he did call me back and I was grateful. /1
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Remember all that matters is SAFE banking not happening. This is the end, it’s all over for cannabis. Panic selling into tax loss selling helps end the pain. And please understand that there will never be positive cannabis news ever again. 😜
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