Not actually an HVAC professional. Heritage American with a touch of Campania. Longing for Constantinople since age 8.
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"I know it don't look like much, pardner, but it gits me where I need to go, and without doing much harm to this here climate of ours."
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Wait, the final US birth data for 2020 was released just a week ago? Why didn't anyone tell me? Looking through it, major point is that the TFR declined to 1.64, the lowest level ever recorded. Birth rates for all races and age groups declined.
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This is a fascinating insight for fertility in pre-modern times, and casts ancient/Biblical debates over sexuality in a somewhat different light. A libertine society would have been a less fertile one, and patriarchy was a reproductive technology.
Better map of the African sterility belt. In the 19th and 20th centuries, much of central Africa had incredibly high sterility rates because of STDs. The low birth rate this caused (net of mortality) motivated (successful) pronatal programs in French and Belgian colonies.
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Changes in total number of US births, by race of mother, since 1990:
White: -43%
Black: -25%
Native Am: -47%
Asian: +35%
Hispanic: +31%
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TIL that the Dominican Republic pulled out of the human rights court, amended its constitution in 2010 to limit birthright citizenship, then had a newly-created constitutional court retroactively strip citizenship from many people whose ancestors arrived in the country since 1929
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Sure, but after 400 years of continuous family residence, I'm calling myself indigenous now.
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Those who would give up essential liberty for a little guacamole, deserve neither liberty nor guacamole
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"Here in Romania, we speak a Romance language called Romanian. And our last president was named Trajan. Any questions?"
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The Indian tribes didn't believe in western ideas like land ownership, or so we're told. But they were savvy enough to sell what they didn't own to the Europeans rather than just quitclaiming it away.
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New study: "The Effects of the Dobbs Decision
on Fertility." Across the board, the (estimated!) increase in births was a fraction of the decrease in abortions in states with bans, indicating less unintended pregnancy. docs.iza.org/dp16608.pdf
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This became a whole journalistic genre in recent years. I'm glad to see they're finally getting the rest they need and deserve.
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It's the vanity of believing that one's lifespan happens to coincide with the pivotal moment in the history of mankind or even the planet. Near-future apocalyptic movements are historically common since they appeal to our self-importance and need for meaning.
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For USA births by ethnicity, here are the totals by month in percentage terms since the beginning of the year (via CDC Wonder)
April USA Births 2025 and Change from April 2024
All Births: 286,039 (-1.15%)
NH White: 144,735(-1.19%)
All Hispanic: 75,030 (-0.90%)
NH Black: 35,382 (-3.21%)
NH Asian: 17,760 (-0.95%)
YTD Births 1,160,599(-0.58%)
@BirthGauge
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The preliminary results for The Gambia's 2024 Census have been out since last year, but the population pyramid is particularly interesting, as it suggests an overall stabilization in births since around 2010, with a slight decline since 2015.
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Using the most recent data available, here's an attempt at a world map based on population size showing those countries above 2.1 TFR (in green) and below (in red). There are a few ambiguous cases, but this should give a general picture.
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In the first full year after the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, black fertility not only dropped, but dropped the fastest of the four major ethnic groups.
The US registered 3,591,328 births in 2023, 2.1% fewer than in 2022. The TFR declined to 1.62 kids per woman from 1.66 in 2022. By race (2022 in brackets):
Non hisp. White 1.53 (1.57)
Non hisp. Black 1.57 (1.64)
Hispanic 1.95 (1.97)
Asian 1.31 (1.35)
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I might go further than this (see below) and argue that democracy reinforces low fertility, since it's a system in which children have no political representation and is one in which wealth, disproportionately held by the elderly, heavily influences policy.
As far as I can tell, the most notable political science results of the 21st century is democracy cannot work well with low fertility rates.
All converge on prioritizing retirees over workers and immigrants over citizens escalating social transfers beyond sustainability.
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Latin America (both South and Central) has been crashing across the board. The last time Ecuador had births at this level was probably in the early 1960s. In 2000, hardly ancient history, births were 356,000.
Ecuador registered 215,714 births in 2024, 9.7% fewer than in 2023. The TFR was around 1.60 kids per woman.
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Little-known fact: postwar families built homes with large grass lawns out in suburbia with the specific purpose of allowing their Boomer spawn to earn money to pay for education by endlessly pushing a lawnmower around. It was a make-work program.
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Japan's Immigration Services Agency today released its count of foreign residents for year end 2024. Net immigration was 357,985, up from 335,779 in 2023, while natural decrease was -927,480, for a total population decline of -569,495.
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Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) has just released birth data for 2023. Mexico recorded 1,820,88 birth registrations in 2023, down from 1,891,388 in 2022 and 2,478,889 ten years earlier.
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The Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies has just issued its annual Amish population update. According to the Center, the estimated Amish population of North America as of June 2024 is 400,910, an increase of 4.3% (16,620) since June 2023. groups.etown.edu/amishstudie…
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Beitar Illit, West Bank. endless rows of tower blocks in real life shook me. was told they’re part of the reason young people don’t get married and have children.
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Thailand, which reports vital stats more quickly than almost any other country, is already off to a birth decline of over 10% in the first two months of 2025. It fell below 500,000 births for the first time in a century in 2024, but this trend would have it barely clearing 400k.
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Three rings for the Elven-kangs under the sky,
Seven for the Dwarf-lords in their cribs of stone,
Nine for mortal men finna die
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Sri Lanka reports 228,091 births for 2024, down from 247,900 in 2023 and 349,715 ten years ago. Total fertility may be as low as 1.37, and the country is not far off from natural population decline. asianews.it/news-en/Births-p…
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Looking at his post history, he's applied the term "godless ideology" to only two things: white identity and anti-Semitism.
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Found photos of my grandpa and grandma on the Coney Island Beach in the late 40s. He's jacked and grandma is a pinup. Asked, "where did you lift, pop?" *Laughs* "The only thing I had was an old punching bag at the local Y."
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If humans originated in Africa, it's the one continent to which all humans are indigenous, right?
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Not too many surprises in the state data, but worth noting that California now has a lower TFR than the rust belt and lower even than New York, which is probably related in part to California's semi-intentional housing shortage.
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Interesting thread about the element of fertility in the rise of Christianity in the Roman Empire. With a 70%+ TFR advantage over pagans, the early Christians would have rapidly gained population share over the decades and centuries even in the absence of conversions.
here's the result.
greek-speaking epigraphs in rome point to low fertility in the pagan population, lower than either jews or christians.
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It's true. Go to China, and all the pilots are white. Same thing in India and Nigeria and Bolivia. All white guys named Norman and Ted.
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I've been having some sexual thoughts about your wife that I'd like to share over text if you'd enjoy that
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Birthrates of the Caribbean update: Jamaican births plunge almost 12% in 2024, falling from 29,439 in 2023 to 25,942, which is the lowest annual total for Jamaica since the 19th century. Births peaked in 1966 at 71,364, and have fallen 50% since 2001.
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It was done a few months ago, but some hero has updated Japan's vital statistics almost back to the Meiji Restoration, giving us a look all the way back to 1873, when the country was still mostly pre-industrial.
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The authors note that "the results do not show evidence of an increase in births to teenagers aged 15-19," but only to women 20 and older. A feared boom in teen births did not materialize at all.
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Remus did nothing wrong. The Aventine's a perfect spot overlooking the Tiber, broader and flatter than the Palatine, and Romulus simply couldn't bear to admit his mistake.
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Sri Lanka's Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) reports 247,900 births for 2023, down 10% from 275,321 in 2022. Deaths rose slightly. Total fertility may be as low as 1.5, after being above 2.0 as recently as 2015. Births have declined by over 100,000 in a decade.
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It was a brutally pragmatic means of managing population in the face of extreme scarcity, justified by appeals to the supernatural. The "Abrahamic" innovation was consciously repudiating this practice and embracing a population explosion, which periodically led to major wars.
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Suriname had been one of the last remaining countries in the Western Hemisphere to maintain above-replacement fertility, but this seems to have come to an end. The nation's 2023 statistical yearbook shows TFR estimated as 2.18 for 2021:
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Also, all of the recent decline in Hispanic births has been due to a collapse in Mexican immigration and TFR. In 2007, there were 722k births to women of Mexican background, 68% of all Hispanic births in the US. In 2020, there were only 480k, good for 55% of Hispanic births.
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I didn't think "onpersoonlijke" could possibly be a real word, but you learn something new every day!
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"911 what's the nature of your emergency?"
"There's a crazy person attacking people with a knife!"
"Are they all teenagers?"
"Uh, yeah, I think so?"
"Sorry ma'am, that's Lindy, can't interfere. Good luck to y'all."
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Again, someone on Wikipedia is putting in work in the birth data pages, and my hat is off to that person.
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Total fertility rate and birth rate broken down by race, ethnicity and age for the USA in 2020. A few observations...
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July update from CDC Wonder. Births to white mothers fell below 50% for the first time since March, but compared to July 2024, white births are +0.7%, Hispanic -1.8%, Black -4.3%, Asian -1.1%, and "other" +5.8%.
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This photo of the Capitol dome, from the morning after, is just heartbreaking. How could we let this happen?
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"And how would you like your 1 million immigrants per annum served, sir, legally or illegally?"
"I didn't ask for any immigrants!"
"Not my question. Legal or illegal?"
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The Romans built their republic on bowls of gruel (bread then being a Greek delicacy), and watched their empire fall while eating flamingo tongues. Obsession with food is a symptom of decadence and decline.
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Checking in again on Lancaster County births for May 2023: Amish/Mennonite families have nearly achieved an absolute majority, reaching 49.5% of all births. American whites/blacks were 39.6%, Hispanics were 7.4% and Asians/Africans were 3.4%. Home births were 34.1% of the total.
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Don't look now, but after a slight rebound in 2023 Thailand is on track for less than 500k births this year. While precise data aren't available, this would likely be the fewest births in the country since it was known as Siam in the late 1920s.
Thailand's demographics 1-11.2024
births - 425,792 (down 51,169 from 1-11.2023)
deaths - 525,152 (up 6,160 from 1-11.2023 )
natural increase - minus 99,360 , in 1-11.2023 was minus 42,031 !!!!!!!)
#demographics #demographic #population
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Bolivia reports 183,876 births for 2024, down from 199,263 in 2023. The data appears to be only through 12/26/24, however, so the actual number may be 2-3,000 higher. Either way, this would put Bolivia at or just below replacement TFR for the first time in recorded history.
#Sociedad | 🇧🇴 En 2024 registran 183.876 nacimientos, 58.588 defunciones y 101 uniones libres entre personas del mismo sexo
#NoticiasBolivia
#NoticiasABI
.
.
⬇️ acortar.link/kEIoi1
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Tunisia has just released a "Demographic Overview" for its 2024 Census. A comparison of the 2014 and 2024 population pyramids shows the sharp contraction in births over the last five years as the small cohorts born in the late 90s and early 00s reach adulthood.
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My grandpa is in his 90s and has more hair than me, which is particularly perplexing. It's the same DNA, what gives??
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Other startling 2024 declines alluded to by @BirthGauge include Chile (-22.5%), Colombia (-15.2%), Costa Rica (-9.8%) and Brazil (-7.0%). It's a reasonable assumption that similar declines are occurring in other LatAm nations that have not reported 2024 data.
Guatemala joins the other Latin American countries with an especially sharp decline in births in 2024. In Q1, there were 14.4% fewer births than in 2023, meaning that the TFR could decline from around 2.2 to below 1.9 kids per woman this year.
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There's the key paragraph. It's not that it's segregated, which is the norm for S.A., but that the town refuses to allow use of non-Afrikaner labor. It's helping the poor, not just the wealthy, rather than relying on a racial caste system that's bad for all concerned.
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Recent article tries to get to the common origins of ultra-low fertility, looking at social attitudes toward family size in the USA, Europe and East Asia. One key finding: for a family, having more than one child does not greatly increase social status, and may even diminish it.
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The Biblical stories use "closed wombs" and "barrenness" as recurring motifs, and virginity is prized. Adultery is singled out for inclusion in the ten commandments. Is this just extreme possessiveness and concern over paternity, or is there something more at work here?
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Year of the Dragon birth boost theory vindicated? Taiwan's births crash by 24% from December '24 to January '25, even with the New Year not occurring until January 28.
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In spite of 30 years of sustained heavy immigration, births to non-white mothers increased only from 1.4 million to 1.6 million, with all of that increase occurring by the late 2000s. Since then, births for all major demographic groups have been in absolute decline.
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Birth data for the USA for August 2025 has just been released through CDC Wonder. The white percentage continues its fall since April, but compared to August 2024, births to white mothers are -3%, Hispanic, -5%, black, -7%, Asian, -7%, while "other" is unchanged.
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Births to non-Hispanic white mothers were already down to 64% in 1990, at which time the Asian and Hispanic immigration spigots were turned open. It declined to just over 50% by 2007, and has not fallen much further now that births to all groups are in absolute decline.
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So I went and actually did the math (with an assist from Facebook), and my guesses were off. For a sample of over 100 American NH white women from my HS class, all at least age 40, only 25% are childless. The TFR is 1.62, and TFR for women with children is 2.15.
My high school class is just now reaching the end of the female reproductive years, and so far as I can tell for women it's about 1/3 childless, 3/6 one or two children and 1/6 three or more, which comes out to roughly 1.4-1.6.
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Was just sent this aerial photo of Manhattan taken today. Nature is healing. We are the virus.
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I don't want an ethnostate, I just want "good schools" and "rural character" in a "low-crime community"
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Interesting thread on East Germany's fertility rebound in the 70s-80s. Non-democratic countries seem to have had more success in raising or sustaining TFR. How much of this I wonder is due to the neutralization of the senior voting bloc that's so influential in democracies?
At it's core was the belief that children should be burden-free and the state should expend capital to make sure it's burden-free. The DDR created a massive spiderweb of childcare and kindergarten, generous maternity time, and State guaranteed job security.
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And another one: although not an independent nation, Aruba joins various other nations and territories in the Caribbean in natural population decline, reporting 820 births and 840 deaths for 2024.
Birthrates of the Caribbean: another (small) nation tips into natural decline. St. Kitts and Nevis reports 481 live births for 2023 and 482 deaths. Births have been in rapid decline since COVID, falling from 632 in 2020.
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In 2007, there were 2,656,000 births to Mexicans in Mexico and 722,000 to Mexicans in the US, for a total of 3,378,000. In 2020, there were 1,629,000 in Mexico and 480,000 in the US, for a total of 2,109,000. That's a 38% decline in 13 years.
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Oman reports 69,561 births for 2024, down from 71,107 in 2023. The CBR for Omani citizens (57% of all residents, 89% of all births) is 20.7, down from 21.9 in 2023, while for noncitizens it is only 3.3, due in part to only around 20% of noncitizens ("expatriates") being female.
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