Gov't meteorologist part of the weather industrial complex. UNCC & NCSU Alum Opinions are my own & not a reflection of my employer
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In the coming days, you'll see many Velocity Potential & Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) plots on #wxtwitter.
Here, I show what they often entail for Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity.
Notice the Atlantic is most active (š“) when the MJO (š¢) reaches Indonesia (phase 4)
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It cost the average taxpayer about $3 to keep NOAA up & running for an entire year.
Yep a cup of coffee is about all it costs to bring you keep you and your family/loved ones safe from Mother Nature & to keep things like weather satellites, radars, and weather alerts up + running.
Also, whether you realize it or not, if you get any weather information from television, weather apps, etc., they also likely are *very* dependent on NOAA in a major way to give you said information.
NOAA is probably the most bang for your buck that you are going to get out of almost any federal entity.
Cutting their funding is just downright asinine. It absolutely will not make a measurable difference to the federal budget or to your taxes. Cutting their funding will however have outsized, and potentially disastrous consequences for the average American, particularly when Mother Nature decides to come knocking at your doorstep.
Long time followers here know that I donāt do politics, and thereās no political content on this account. I vote; and thatās it. ļæ¼The world does not need another social media nitwit telling people how to think and vote. ļæ¼
This post is not about politics, but about support for my friends that work for the National Weather Service, part of NOAA, a federal agency.
NWS meteorologists work long, hard hoursļæ¼ļæ¼ serving the people of this country, not only during times of severe weather, but on the routine days as well.
Their surface and upper air observation networks along with computer models, radars, and satellites are critical for all meteorologists, including those of us in the private sector. ļæ¼ļæ¼
Most NWS field offices are currently understaffedļæ¼ right now. I can only imagine morale is not especially high. ļæ¼
Many high-level politicians follow this page, both Democrats and Republicans. I would encourage them and all of you to support my colleagues at the National Weather Service during this time. Their service is absolutely invaluable. ļæ¼
If NWS products and services are reduced, we all sufferā¦especially during times of life-threatening weather. ļæ¼
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The funding cuts and mass layoffs at NOAA & NWS going down today WILL 1000% cause irreparable harm to much of the US for decades to come.
Much like with the apparent increase in the number of plane crashes since the massive layoff of Air Traffic controllers, something catastrophic will probably have to happen for positive change to occur in our field š
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The fact that I have to come on here & defend NOAA & NWS certainly tells you a lot about the state of affairs in this country š
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We are quickly going down the road of being sent back to the proverbial stone ages of weather forecasting in the CONUS.
People take for granted how bad forecasts truly used to be & werenāt alive to remember a time in the distant past (19th and early 20th centuries) when it was very commonplace for many hundreds or thousands to die from a āsurpriseā event
š
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First NHC official forecast for #Helene when it was labeled Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (#PTC9) (left) vs observed (via @cyclonicwx) (right).
In general, I'm not sure how you can do much better than that.
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My patience for dealing with idiots on this platform about the major NOAA & NWS lay offs and funding cuts that are ongoing is at an all-time low.
Sorry but not sorry, this is personal for me and so many of my friends and colleagues.
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My overall take on Hurricane #Helene is:
While the forecasts from the NHC, WPC, & local NWS WFOs certainly couldn't have been much better overall, how that forecast was presented, communicated, and then acted upon by both the public & decision-makers was far from sufficient to put it lightly.
This on top of the other socioeconomic issues (w/ the hardest hit areas also being generally isolated & poor) has greatly exacerbated the disaster that's ongoing in/around western NC... (1/n)
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The number of downright nasty & ignorant comments Iāve seen like this on social media the past few days that were directed either at NOAA, NWS, myself, or some of my colleagues is certainly troubling.
Itās hard to believe how far weāre falling as an American society when an agency whose sole purpose is to protect your life and property from Mother Nature gets so much vitriol.
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I found the leading edge of the arctic cold front above central Texas this morning
āļø
#txwx
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Somewhat surprisingly, the initialization of Hurricane #Milton on the latest 12z HAFS-B run was somewhat realistic.
Fwiw, the HAFS-B shows #Milton intensifying even more this afternoon-evening, becoming a sub-900mb monster.
Then, later tonight it explicitly forecasts an eyewall replacement cycle, then even more intensification tomorrow as #Milton passes over the loop current, threatening Hurricane #Wilma's all-time low pressure record in the Atlantic (882mb) in the process.
š³
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The number of conspiracy theories & amount of misinformation Iāve seen on #wxtwitter last few days in the wake of #Helene makes me think social media was a bad idea.
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Yep I definitely donāt like this SW + slowing trend w/ Hurricane #Lee on the GFS ensemble
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The little news I've seen trickle out thus far from western NC after Hurricane #Helene is utterly heartbreaking to say the least, especially after having lived in NC for ~25 years.
Just from what little we know so far, #Helene is probably the closest thing we have seen to Katrina (2005) in terms of devastation & total impacts, just from the NC mountains alone...
I can't even begin to imagine what some folks have been going through the past few days.
š
#ncwx #wncwx
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Lol
Shocking update: National Weather Service is crippled and can't adequately serve the public due to inadequate staffing 24/7.
Severe weather warnings will be missed or screwed up + hurricane advisories delayed according to experts.
This was a slow moving disaster over the past 4-years but accelerated with so many retirements of senior forecasters.
cnn.com/2025/05/02/weather/nā¦
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First time in over 50 years the Atlantic hasnāt produced a new named storm since mid-August (#Ernesto).
Iām not sure some folks realize just how unusually quiet the Atlantic has been lately.
Although some thought I was being a little premature about labeling this season a massive bust on September 1st, this fact is a pretty unambiguous indicator that conditions just arenāt favorable for TCs this season
The Atlantic has had no named storm formations since #Ernesto on August 12. The last time that the Atlantic had no named storm formations between August 13 - September 3 was in 1968. The remarkably quiet period for Atlantic #hurricane activity continues.
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This might be the biggest forecast jinx Iāve ever seen
Gg accuweather
Lmao wtf is this.
Crapuweather only going with a tropical storm next week?!
Well that obviously means Wilma 2.0 is confirmed
#Melissa
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This is truly jaw-dropping. The latest recon pass through Hurricane #Milton's SW quad found FL winds ~155-160 knots, with surface pressures in the mid 920s, a near 10 mb drop from the last pass. š³
This supports Hurricane #Milton being upgraded a 145 knot (165 mph) category 5 hurricane.
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Itās pretty cool to watch in real-time the mesovortex merger process in #Heleneās eyewall as it approaches Florida.
Weāve gone from a hexagonal (n=6) type of eyewall to more of a square/rhombus (n=4).
These successive mesovortex mergers are one of the main processes contributing to #Heleneās rapid intensification prior to landfall in Florida today, via vorticity aggregation into the eye, which gets non-linearly stretched & advected upward in deep convective updrafts/vortical hot towers.
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Most people take for granted the massive modern advancements in weather forecasting over the last several decades & certainly donāt remember a time when deadly surprises from Mother Nature were way more common.
These major funding and staffing cuts at NOAA & NWS are pushing us back in that direction Iām afraid & it will take us a long time to get back on the right track.
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āSurge pricingā
My brother in Christ thatās called price gouging
Walmart is replacing the price stickers with electronic shelf labels across 2,300 stores ā which could be a precursor to surge pricing.
One industry analyst says: āIf itās hot outside, we can raise the price of water and ice cream."
npr.org/2024/06/17/nx-s1-500ā¦
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For the first time in my life, I can say Iām in the eye of a hurricane. Itās pretty awe inspiring and definitely not what I expected.
Eerily still and calm here, encountered some dense fog on the edge of the eye.
#lifegoals #HurricaneIsaias #ISAIAS #ncwx #scwx
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It's never a good sign when your hurricane is trying to strengthen over land.
#Ida
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In my 16+ years of religiously following every Atlantic hurricane out there, I would have to say that #Melissa is the craziest Atlantic hurricane Iāve ever tracked
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The brutally cold arctic air mass that's forecast to be over the Eastern US at the beginning of December largely starts out over Northern Russia yesterday & today at ~ -30F to -40F.
It takes ~10 days for this air mass to be transported across the Arctic & into the CONUS.
Classic Siberian Express pattern šš„¶
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The comment section here sums up a lot of things that are wrong with #wxtwitter.
Every year I stay around, the mean IQ of this place goes lower & the amount of wild alt right conspiracy theories goes higher.
Also no we do not control the weather.
While we have some tech that can slightly impact local weather, hurricanes are on a whole different level. If you think we can control hurricanes, you just donāt understand how massive they are. These storms are far beyond anything we can create, erase, or steer. Stay informed, yāall!
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#Lee is one of those rare hurricanes where you blink and the storm is intensifying so rapidly that it skips multiple categories š³
Given #Lee's exceptional rate of intensification & current satellite trends, I generally agree w/ the overall sentiment on tropical #wxtwitter atm that recon may find a category 5 hurricane #Lee later this evening.
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The thing that really concerns me w/ Hurricane #Milton's unexpected bout of explosive intensification this morning is the fact that this storm will now have **a lot** more time to churn & push water/storm surge onto the west coast of Florida in a few days.
If you want a reasonable worst case scenario for Hurricane #Milton's maximum *potential* storm surge in/around places like Tampa Bay, take the current 8-12 foot storm surge forecast & double it.
#flwx
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Itās amazing how in a few short days, one of the leading paradigms with Hurricane #Lee on weenie #wxtwitter has shifted from āthis is 100% a fish š storm who tf cares?!ā to āomg, itās actually gonna hit Florida!ā
As with most things in life, the truth is likely to be in the middle of these 2 extreme POVs: a generally ānon-fishā storm that could be very impactful for portions Atlantic Canada &/or New England.
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The more time goes on, the more I realize that Twitter/X and social media in general is just a huge waste of time.
I used to enjoy giving thoughtful/provoking analyses on here, but now w/ politics, anti-intellectualism, & misinformation running rampant, itās not worth it anymore
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Now that #Melissa is a category 5 hurricane, I would like to remind everyone that accuweather forecasted a tropical storm several days ago š
Yet another reason why they shouldnāt be taken seriously or issuing āshark finā track cones past day 5
Get your info from the NHC folks
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Super typhoon #KongRey is an absolute unit. One of the biggest eyes I have ever seen for a storm of this intensity.
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The rate of intensification of Hurricane #Milton this morning is nothing short of legendary & borderline unprecedented.
Pressure falling ~8-10mb per recon pass, now down to ~914mb.
Only can think of a few storms like #Patricia & #Wilma that rival this rate of explosive intensification.
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When I first became interested in phenomena like the MJO a decade ago, I found the phase diagrams to be confusing at first & wish someone would have simplified things for me.
Thus I present to you an animation of VPM MJO ASO VP200a composites & their position in MJO phase space:
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I havenāt seen a modeled pattern this favorable for snow over the Carolinas & SE US in a long time.
West-based -NAO, +PNA, & a deep longwave trough centered inland of the East Coast screams Miller A/coastal cyclone potential.
Arguably the best look Iāve seen for a Miller A/coastal cyclone type winter storm in nearly 15 years.
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Hurricane #Milton is undergoing some truly explosive rates of intensification rarely seen or observed in the Atlantic basin this morning.
Pressure is falling ~5+ mb between passes on this recon flight š
#Milton is already knocking on the door of category 4 status & we will likely see a category 5 hurricane later today.
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Idk if Iāve ever truly had a sinking feeling about a tornado/severe season like this year.
Not just because we have a lot of the right ingredients in place for a season with a few really big outbreaks, but the lay offs & funding cuts to NOAA & NWS makes us waaayyyy more vulnerable to the truly ābig oneā than we have been in a long time.
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The latest Hurricane Hunter Vortex data message reports #Milton's eye is 4 nautical miles wide, with minimum central pressure of 899mb, which would make #Milton the 6th strongest hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic (wrt Sea Level Pressure).
A 4 mile wide eye? #Milton is basically just a slightly bigger version of the El Reno (2013) tornado atm š
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If we somehow go another week without a new named storm in the Atlantic, it will be the longest streak without a new named storm formation in the peak of the season since 1929 (when of course some storms likely went undetected!).
Weāve got 4 legitimate, but slight chances to avoid potentially holding this nearly century-long record
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As some of you may be already aware, I've recently moved from North Carolina to New Mexico. I'll soon begin working as a gov't meteorologist in Las Cruces at the end of this month (*not NWS*). Excited to start this new chapter of my life & for the journey that lays ahead š
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Here's my special hand-drawn snow accumulation map for the historic snowstorm that impacted the Gulf Coast earlier this week.
This storm smashed a ton of records on the Gulf Coast & certainly will be remembered for many decades to come.
The heaviest snow in excess of 9-10" fell from near New Orleans through Mobile, AL & the extreme western Florida Panhandle.
āļøāļø
#lawx #mswx #alwx #flwx
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I honestly think it's pretty insane to see a major hurricane superimposed directly underneath a large-scale upper trough. Gotta love tropical transition!
#Epsilon
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Here's a map of all category 4 or 5 landfalling US hurricanes that reached their max intensity within 24 hrs of landfall. #Laura is about to join some very exclusive & infamous company w/ the likes of storms such as: Michael (2018), Harvey (2017), Andrew (1992), & Camille (1969)
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The Tail Doppler Radar aboard this morningās Hurricane Hunter plane picked up 166 kt (190 mph) winds ~0.5 km above the sfc in the eyewall of Hurricane #Ian. š³š¬
Unreal
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I came up w/ list of analogs for this year's tornado season & this is what the 1Ā°x1Ā° tornado track density composite grid looks like over the CONUS using @NWSSPC's database that goes back to 1950.
Note I used a 30-year sliding base period anomaly here to account for long-term non-stationary behavior in tornado data (due to better detection & increased spotting in recent years).
Although tornadoes will still certainly occur over the Great Plains, this analog composite is highlighting an *anomalous* eastward shift in tornado activity this year, with the epicenter of anomalously positive tornado activity closer to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
šŖļø
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Hurricane #Milton's eyewall replacement cycle that began late yesterday is finished this morning & #Milton has weakened slightly to a category 4 hurricane, but w/ a much larger wind field.
#Milton is exhibiting a classic enveloped eyewall lightning (EEL) signature this morning & intense inner core lightning bursts are rotating into the upshear-left (SW) quadrant of the storm.
This is an indication that another period of re-intensification is probably about to commence.
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One thing to keep in the back of your mind w/ potential wobbles in #Milton's track:
NWP models tend to underestimate the amount of downshear center "tugging" in hurricanes w/ asymmetrical convective distributions, as #Milton is forecast to have on Wed as it approaches the west coast of Florida.
Thus, I wouldn't be shocked if we see a last second apparent northward shift here that could put the right front quadrant (& highest storm surge) closer to or in Tampa Bay.
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Todayās 12z HAFS-B forecast for #Milton has been absolutely spot on thus far.
Not only did it absolutely nail #Miltonās peak intensity of 897mb, but also correctly forecast the timing & onset of an eyewall replacement that weāre beginning to see this evening via recon.
This particular HAFS-B run forecasts #Milton to weaken slightly overnight, but remain a category 5 hurricane during this eyewall replacement cycle, with pressures rising to ~915-920mb.
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This dropsonde thru the south and southeast part of #Melissaās eyewall is the most insane dropsonde Iāve ever seen.
*Mean* winds in the lowest 150m of 188 knot/216 mph with gusts upwards of 219 knot/252 mph!!
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane is headed into SW Jamaica
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This is easily the strongest trough I've ever seen on an ensemble mean in the medium-extended range.
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#Dora is undoubtedly one of the prettiest + strongest long-track hurricanes that has churned away in this part of the east-central tropical Pacific.
#Dora seems poised to become one of those legendary hurricanes that crosses through every sub-basin in the Pacific (not totally unheard of in an El NiƱo year (e.g. Ioke (2006)).
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Itās been interesting to watch radar of #Idaliaās eye over the last hour or two. Notice the polygonal shaped eye near the start of this loop, that becomes more circular towards then end.
This is likely due to eyewall mesovortices merging inside #Idaliaās eye. As these mesovortices merge together, they mix + consolidate vorticity rich air from the eyewall to inside the eye. Thus, the minimum central pressure tends to crater during this kind of evolution, often leading to a burst of very rapid intensification.
See Kossin & Schubert (2001):
journals.ametsoc.org/view/joā¦
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Successfully defended my MS thesis today! I am extremely grateful for my advisor @brianmagi, my committee, friends, family, #wxtwitter, & everyone that helped me get to this pt.
Hope to have a publication & preliminary data available on my website soon! webberweather.com
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Hurricane #Lee is intensifying at a truly breakneck pace today.
A warming/clearing eye, cooling cloud tops in the eyewall, increased inner core lightning, & a generally more laminar appearance to its convective pattern suggests #Lee is a strong category 3 (or 4?) hurricane atm.
Just incredible.
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No wonder invest #91L is downtrending.
Crapuweather had this becoming a category 2 hurricane š
Reason #42069 why we donāt issue forecast cones for poorly developed invests
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The 12z HAFS run for #98L produced arguably the smallest modeled hurricane I've ever seen (~15 miles wide).
This is a supercellicane
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The area in red actually had the best viewing conditions for the eclipse.
Bust
One month until the total solar eclipse -- and long-range experts have the scoop on the weather forecast: bit.ly/4c8pNzq
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The intensity of this trough next week over the central US is just comical, especially for a day 9-10 ensemble mean.
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I'm honestly at the point where I think we should just permanently retire the letter "I" altogether from the Atlantic's tropical cyclone naming list.
#Ian
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I normally keep my mouth shut on politics, but whatās happening rn in #Ukraine & seeing how many in this country (mainly in the GOP) are sympathizing w/ Putin, whose ambition is to restore the former glory of the USSR, is extremely alarming to me & simply too big to ignore
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Worth mentioning/stating the obvious here.
Even with the super crazy HAFS runs from the past few days, none of this morning's hurricane models sniffed out this period of very rapid intensification from #Milton, with the storm being nearly 30mb deeper than the 9 hr 6z forecasts. š
This morning's recon missions will certainly help fix that & I'm very curious to see how these short-term forecast changes translate down the road for impacts in Florida
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It's honestly pretty ridiculous how close the current US drought monitor & forecast spring precipitation from the CPC is to 1974.
We all know what happened that spring...
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In terms of prettiest IR satellite loops of recent hurricanes Iāve saved on my computer, this one of Hurricane #Beryl is getting up there for me
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OMFG MY FIRST (fully condensed) PLAINS TORNADO!!! ššŖļø
Thank u Fort Stockton āŗļø
#txwx
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Screw the house, gotta save the Yacht!
#HurricaneIan
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Narrator: no a āMERCā is in fact not a āstrongerā version of an eyewall replacement cycle, thatās nonsense
In fact, MERC is not a real acronym or term thatās broadly accepted in literature
Why do severe weenies have a bad habit of being so confidently wrong on topics like this
Unfortunately, Hurricane Melissa just completed a MERC, which is a stronger version of an eyewall replacement cycle. This means Melissa will become a stronger and more organized hurricane over the next 24 hours.
More rapid intensification is possible overnight. Category 5 intensity is expected by tomorrow morning.
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Sub-900mb extrapolated SLP on this recon pass into Hurricane #Milton. š¤Æ
We might be about to see a dropsonde splash into a top 5 all-time strongest Atlantic hurricane (wrt Sea Level Pressure).
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Really like this mesoscale floater satellite page of Hurricane #Milton from @cyclonicwx.
Notice the eye temp (Max (TC Center)) here is rising ~1-2Ā°C ** per frame ** š
#Milton's eye is very rapidly warming/clearing.
This is an indication that #Milton is going to likely strengthen much further, as the temperature difference across the eyewall increases & intensifies #Milton's secondary (vertical) circulation
cyclonicwx.com/floater/g16meā¦
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Hurricane Hunters confirm that Hurricane #Milton has re-intensified this afternoon, with max winds ~165 mph and minimum central pressure ~905mb, nearly equivalent to Hurricane Katrina (2005)'s peak in a similar part of the Gulf.
#Milton will likely intensify a little further later this evening into the overnight as it moves over the loop current & receives favorable ageostrophic divergence from a jet streak over the SE US.
Take this storm seriously if you're in Florida.
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