Meteorology + Climate 🇺🇸 | Look Up 🚀 | Florida State PhD | Go Blue Michigan | Cat 6 🐈 | 🌎 A.I. + Weather Maps @weathertrader
Atlanta, GA
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Private jets in Munich on the way to Dubai global warming conference are literally frozen on the runway, which has turned into a glacier.
Community note
This plane was not frozen to the runway, nor was it on the way to Dubai.
Aircraft "OE-HUB" was parked, with no scheduled flight activity for the past 14 days as of December 3, 2023.
flightaware.com/live/flight/OE…
An unfueled parked aircraft, with heavy snow on its tail section may tip rearward.
aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=m…
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The Atlantic tropics are completely broken, unable to produce tropical storms even w/off the charts "climate fueled" oceans.
Our models no longer work, forecasters can't figure it out. This is not normal.
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This story is wild
Colorado ranchers tampered with NOAA weather instruments to reduce reported rainfall in order to collect more federal drought relief money.
But, then their co-conspirator escaped from prison ...
cbsnews.com/colorado/news/co…
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Chicago is about to be hit by the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane or a landphoon.
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It's obvious that NYC's sewer system needs to be upgraded significantly to handle heavy rain as seen in 1882, 1903, 2007, 2011, 2021, and now September 29, 2023.
However, according to the NYC Chief Climate Officer, that is too expensive.
"We can't rebuild every sewer. It would cost $100 billion. We'd have to tear up every street in the New York," Aggarwala said.
Instead, the goal is to dedicate 100% on decarbonizing NYC to get "global warming under control" to prevent the flooding/rain from even happening. That's probably not going to work.
cbsnews.com/newyork/news/new…
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A massive "bomb cyclone" is set to explode off the U.S. West Coast with hurricane force winds, flooding rains, and enormous mountain snow from Category 5 atmospheric river.
Central pressure will fall almost 70 mb / 24 hours reaching 942 mb -- similar to Category 4 hurricane.
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8-10 feet of snow falling in the Sierra along with 100 mph wind gusts. Massive hurricane-force blizzard conditions at higher elevations❄️
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Helene will be so large that Hurricane Force wind gusts 75-100 mph+ will extend well inland before landfall around 11 PM - 1 AM
This is beyond what we've seen here in modern times.
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From 2-3 PM ET, the eastern U.S. cooled considerably because of the total solar eclipse by 5° to 7°F.
Excellent observational evidence that indeed the sun heats the Earth very effectively.
Guess what happened between 3-4 PM ET? Warmed right back up.
HRRR model
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Hell on Earth | Updated 48-hour "smoke" forecast through Thursday evening. No improvement.
Until these 🇨🇦🔥fires are put out, clouds of smoke will billow southward and then counterclockwise around a low-pressure system over the Northeast.
NYC could be blanketed in even thicker smoke Wednesday evening.
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Grotesque misinformation.
NWS in Texas had extra staff on duty and did their jobs admirably, as always.
George Stephanopoulos on @ThisWeekABC: “We’re also learning there were significant staffing shortfalls to the National Weather Services offices in the region.”
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Satellite photo this morning:
Bright sunshine showing the frozen tundra of the Deep South from Houston, Texas to New Orleans, and South Georgia.
So much snow covering the ground -- historic!
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Starting to wonder what's going on.
During next 2-weeks, extreme cold over Northern Hemisphere continents may be enough to return global temperatures to the 1991-2020 climatological mean temporarily erasing the last 5-years of global warming.
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Total rainfall east of the Mississippi for the past 5-days including an upper-level low and Hurricane Helene: over 40 Trillion gallons
20 Trillion gallons fell across Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, North and South Carolina especially over mountainous terrain.
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The atmospheric rarity of this cold anomaly is off the scale to be practically impossible from Nov 9-11th.
Middle atmosphere temperatures of < -40°C extending from Great Lakes into Kentucky may be the most extreme weather event we've seen in 100s of years.
No doubt about cause.
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$1 Billion nuclear reactor to produce 300 MW?
US nameplate capacity is 1,200+ GW
So $3.6T to nuclearize the entire US electricity system as it exists today with these new AP300's.
Could invest $3T over 30 years and skip all of this other green crap
reuters.com/world/us/westing…
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Greenpeace hit with $667 million judgement.
"...massive financial blow to the group that environmentalists say could chill future climate advocacy"
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Unfortunately, a powerful hurricane could form in the Gulf of Mexico and slam into Florida by Wednesday.
The next name is Milton.
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Dallas-Fort Worth right on edge of heavy snowfall. We're talking upwards of 15" possible by Friday morning from ECMWF HRES 06z.
Median outcome is 5"❄️from ensembles.
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Updated info on the impending climate emergency due to the Arctic blast across the Pacific Northwest & then into the Central and Midwest USA in the coming 5-10 days.
"Gobsmackingly bananas" temperatures 76°F below climate normal for mid-January are off-the-charts cold
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A "mega heat dome" is forecast to develop over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast into next week.
The ridge will be at near historical intensity centered upon Pennsylvania w/500 mb heights > 6000 m
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Without climate change, July's summer heat in the U.S. Southwest would have been "virtually impossible."
I guess that's true if you memory hole 1925, 1930s, 1950s, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2012, 2020, etc. and the rest of the almanac.
washingtonpost.com/climate-e…
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AP: Weather service had extra staffers on duty during Texas flooding emergency.
apnews.com/article/texas-flo…
In statements to NY Times, the former head of National Weather Service Louis Uccellini blamed climate change and staffing shortages for the Texas flooding.
Holy moly 😳 we're down bad.
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Winds will not die down much until noon on Wednesday around Los Angeles ... the worst is yet to come in next few hours with 80-105 mph gusts. This is a hurricane of fire.
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Back of envelope calculation suggests the Earth could reduce global land temperatures immediately by at least 0.5°C by moving thermometers away from airports and rapidly growing urban areas like Phoenix, Arizona.
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Amazing! The Pacific jet stream will be screaming at maximum intensity over 200 mph for the next 2-weeks almost completely zonally elongated from Japan to California!
That's a pattern ripe for the West Coast of the U.S. to be bombarded with atmospheric rivers & keep North America very, very warm as the Polar Vortex is bottled up above the Arctic circle.
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All of a sudden, the Sahara desert is a very wet place with heavy rain and storms over the next 2-weeks.
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Nearly 80 million Americans will be below 0°F by next Tuesday when extremely cold Canadian / Siberian Arctic air descends on the Lower 48.
The nationwide average low temperature will be only 6°F
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Exciting to report than Florida 🍊 will be the worst state impacted by the upcoming historic Arctic blast early next week.
Miami into the 40s and Orlando/Tampa upper-30s = 25°F below normal for Nov 11th
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Coldest wind chill vs. warmest heat index across Lower 48:
Montana near -70°F
Florida near 90°F
160°F difference at 1 PM
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I don't get how clear cutting 1,000 acres of forest, grading flat, killing all vegetation, and installing solar panels helps the environment or the climate.
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Breaking ... not Arctic sea ice
"Dramatic slowdown in melting of Arctic sea ice surprises scientists"
"No statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005."
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Hurricane Hilary a few minutes ago is still intensifying. I'm expecting it to reach close to Category 5 assuming another 6-12 hours of eye clearing and warming.
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Historic climate-induced "heat dome" will absolutely demolish records next week, peaking Thursday when 67 million Americans are forecast to see at least 100°F 📈🌡
Heat domes don't get names or categories yet. But, this one would be Category 5.
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Extreme heat warnings stretch from California to Miami with temperatures nearing 130°F in the hottest spots. 🌡
In terms of historical context, this might be the hottest day across the U.S. since last year.
Unvelievably hot 89.1°F national average high temperature. 157 Million or almost half of U.S. population to see 90°F level heat.
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The climate Malthusians are going ballistic after Mr. Beast showed how easy and cheap it was to improve the lives of so many people by providing access to drinking water through local wells.
Just imagine how fast the human condition would improve with unfettered access to domestic energy supplies like gas.
Alas, European elites, and their comrades in North America are keen to allocate carbon budgets and limit growth in Africa to only expensive and unreliable renewable energy.
Maybe put Mr. Beast in charge of climate policy.
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The climate-fueled "heat dome" over the central US will act like a gigantic, impenetrable lid with broiling, sinking air suppressing all rain and even clouds 🌡
Trillions of gallons of rainfall must go around ⛈️
Hurricane Hilary 🌀 and a Gulf of Mexico tropical system.
USA to see 22 Trillion gallons of rain over next 7-days. 16T from Hilary b/c effects extend into Idaho and Montana.
Heat dome strength 602 dm 📈
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Once the "polar vortex" onslaught starts January 3 ... keeps reloading for multiple Arctic blasts.
I'm watching the weather model cycles and thinking "yikes"
Waiting on the last frames from GFS 18z to see how much wreckage this "polar vortex" anomaly can do ... positioned to cripple.
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The switch is about to be flipped in the Atlantic tropics with multiple areas of interest w/potential to develop further.
Texas may get a tropical storm next week.
Caribbean system is a big concern. Ensemble solutions (model multiple simulations) highlight areas of interest that NHC watches continuously.
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Hurricane Milton has potential to become a Category 5 in the next 48-hours by Tuesday.
Wind shear and dry air will hopefully knock Milton down considerably before reaching Florida coastline, but that's somewhat wishful thinking.
Must prepare for a Category 4.
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Amazingly, the eye of Hurricane Helene remains clear and in tact. The rapid movement, saturated ground, and being embedded within a larger trough seem to be keeping Helene unfazed by land. Wild.
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Watch a major hurricane develop this week!
Hurricane Lee will be a monstrous storm perhaps Category 4 or 5 in the next 7-days as it [likely] travels safely north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Lee will have a friend --> Margot over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
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I'm confused.
Television stations show the GRAF model making landfall almost 100 miles SE of the official NHC forecast outside the cone.
Is this what we're doing?
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This is shaping up to be worse than many expected earlier in the day.
The heavy rain is causing catastrophic flooding.
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This is an Epic Level
Climate fueled
Supercharged/Turbocharged
Atmospheric River
Bomb cyclone
of nearly unprecedented ferocity made worse by El Niño and climate change smashing into California with hurricane force winds & trillions of gallons of precipitation.
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Strong words from an expert knowledgeable in how people spread propaganda and dangerous misinformation.
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Great start for the newly discovered Gulf of America.
Explorers note the climate is polar with heavy snow and ice observed along the coastlines.
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Over the next 7-days, Major Hurricane Lee is going to massively expand in size +
intensity maybe to Category 5+📈
Lee will be one of the most powerful storms we've seen in recent years and thankfully only mixing fish 🐟🌀
Still uncertainty about where Lee goes in 10-days.
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Canadian wildfire smoke will plunge southward during the next 2-days, and could be very thick. 🔥🇨🇦
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Well, the ECMWF HRES 12z model update puts an end to the Northwest U.S. with the most brutal Arctic blast possible. Nice knowing y'all.
77.7°F below normal temperatures. 📉
Actual temperatures in the minus 50s °F and wind chills
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National Weather Service forecast grids for Montana have just updated for minimum actual temperature of -58°F tomorrow morning (Saturday)
That's excessive cold.
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Rainfall forecast estimates from Hilary have increased significantly with inland areas of Southern California potentially seeing 6-12" of rainfall. 📈🌧️
Hilary will not rapidly spin down over cooler water much at all. Instead, it will look/act like a fully tropical system on approach to Southern California.
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Proximal Origin volcano edition:
The eruption of 40 Trillon gallons of water into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga 🌋 is the most important natural climate disruption event in 30 years.
Weirdly, an organized effort climate academics and activists has ramped up recently to suppress discussion and downplay any volcano related climate warming effects this summer. The tactics are eerily similar to those employed by lab leak deniers during early 2020.
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ECMWF 12z model develops an extreme "heat dome" over U.S. Northwest with obscene temperatures in excess of 120°F in California, Oregon and Washington early next week 🌡️.
🚨 Probably need to keep a close eye on this 🔥
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California's climate has changed again!
From worst megadrought in 1200 years -- to nearly unprecedented atmospheric rivers and excessive rainfall warnings! ⚠️
Climate scientists might warn that this wet period is a new normal.
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An activist climate scientist admits to regular meetings with Twitter's head of sustainability to ensure "trusted (climate) information was pushed to the top" of the platform while problematic folks like @jordanbpeterson were suppressed.
Since @elonmusk fired the sustainability minders, the climate activists are no longer in control.
Some climate scientists continue to complain about being "targeted" for "vicious abuse" on Twitter. Even the lightest criticism of their policy agenda is seen as hate speech.
Several censorship groups are keen on returning the platform to pre-Musk days when climate topics were heavily censored, but also narratives were artificially amplified.
These Guradian struggle sessions are part of that astroturf campaign.
ALT https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/14/climate-crisis-deniers-target-scientists-abuse-musk-twitter
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The moisture transport into the North Carolina mountains was equivalent to most extreme atmospheric river you'd see on the West Coast times 3.
The convective core of Helene went right through w/IVT > 3,000
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Satellite intensity algorithm estimates Hurricane Hilary is approaching Category 5. 📈🌀
1015 PM PT Thursday
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Get your snowblower ready in Dallas!
Weather model output trending upward again to 13"-15" of snow ❄️ by Friday.
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Sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Tropical Pacific have abruptly cooled by up to 10°C in the past 2 weeks.
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The hottest day will be Saturday by population when over 230 million Americans experience at least 90°F and 20 million at/above 100°F
However, relief is on the way with cooler Canadian air next week
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Frost advisories across central Lower Michigan away from the lakeshore.
Temperatures also dipping to near freezing or mid-30s across northern Wisconsin counties into the UP of Michigan.
Frost on June 11th!
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Still watching historic climate emergency risk from Arctic blast 📉❄️🌡️
Overnight weather model [ECMWF HRES 00Z] still shows historic Arctic blast into the Pacific Northwest and Western U.S. in 6-7 days.
Extremely cold w/potential for snowfall along California coast including Bay Area w/sub-freezing temperatures.
Seattle and Portland in single-digits & heavy snowfall.
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Another "bomb cyclone" will come uncomfortably close to the Washington coast on Friday.
Then, the first one will come back around for another pass.
These storms will pirouette for the next 4-5 days.
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The remnants of powerful Hurricane Hilary will inundate the U.S. Southwest with boatloads of rainfall.
Look at the geographic coverage!
Los Angeles, San Diego, Death Valley, Las Vegas, maybe Phoenix will see at least 2-inches of rainfall -- up to 6-8" maximum.
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This new Hunga Tonga 🌋 research study (in peer review) is revelatory. Seriously, we need to consider the volcano as an unexpected, decade-long, natural warming spike.
The greenhouse warming effect of 40 trillion gallons of water vapor in the stratosphere may have just kicked in recent months and will persist and peak for 3-7 years 📈🌡 Wow!
Large areas of additional 1.5°C regional warming on top of El Niño and whatever else is going on.
🚨New pre-print argues HTHH eruption has profound effects on global climate, including temps & precip & will continue to have effects for the rest of decade
Long-term surface impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai-like stratospheric water vapor injection
essopenarchive.org/users/304…
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Bay Area now experiencing worst of the massive bomb cyclone. Treacherous conditions!
SFO gusting to 62 mph out of the south
Hurricane force wind gusts just off the Pacific coast now.
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This is the lowest and cheapest shot on Florida from NY Times. They had it coming from Hurricane Ian b/c their elected politicians opposed the Green New Deal & climate legislation.
The authors believe climate change caused Hurricane Ian disaster.
nytimes.com/2022/10/04/clima…
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Awesome that after pushing 130°F weeks ago, Death Valley is forecast to get 4-8" rainfall from a hurricane.
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There are some winters in December or January when we don't see snowfall weather maps like this.
Next 2-weeks snowfall totals across Lower 48 and Canada. This is October, of course. Winter is coming.
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With the implosion of SVB, the planet could literally be at stake. 1,500 companies in climate tech were venture backed at the bank.
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Except for South Florida and California/Arizona, everywhere else in the Lower 48 has at least a non-zero chance of snowfall by January 11, 2025.
25% chance of measurable snow in Florida panhandle sounds fun!
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The election wasn't rigged or stolen. It was "fortified" with Zuck Bucks.
February 2021: Time Magazine:
time.com/5936036/secret-2020…
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Unprecedented climate-fueled Hurricane Hilary to wallop Los Angeles on Sunday as conditions quickly go downhill with heavy rain, flooding and gusty winds.
The tropical storm will move over Death Valley dumping 12 Trillion gallons of rainfall over CA/NV/AZ
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This is not normal. Something has changed ...
How much snow do we need to set the record for the 21st Century, 20th Century, and 19th Century along the Gulf Coast?
Asking b/c by early next week, there's potential for crippling winter storm from Houston to Jax, Florida including New Orleans.
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Thru this morning, last 7-days of precipitation equivalent to 7.7 Trillion gallons.
Another 3-Trillion expected today and next few days should top out at 11 Trillion from this 10-day stormy period for California.
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Watching track of developing truly massive "bomb cyclone" for Ireland and Britain on Wednesday.
Central pressure in the 940s and hurricane force winds possible.
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Jamaica has never seen hurricanes like Beryl before according to CNN's climate expert.
How can you be this dumb?
CNN’s @BillWeirCNN on a hurricane forming during hurricane season: “This is just the result of an overheating planet”
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A climate-fueled "bomb cyclone" will dump more than 8 trillion gallons of precipitation will fall on California in the next few days. Almost enough to entirely fill Lake Mead. 🌧📈
California's climate has changed again!
From worst megadrought in 1200 years -- to nearly unprecedented atmospheric rivers and excessive rainfall warnings! ⚠️
Climate scientists might warn that this wet period is a new normal.
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NY Times cancels the climate catastrophe. It's over.
Finally, after several years of denial, climate science has embraced a more hopeful narrative and abandoned the apocalyptic worst-case outcomes based upon implausible model scenarios (RCP 8.5)
nytimes.com/interactive/2022…
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Total rainfall modeled for next 10-days is astounding for Southern California. 🍍📈🌧️
Instead of talking about snowfall at 6 to 12-inches, we'll be talking about rainfall accumulations for Los Angeles.
Coastal higher elevations will be upwards of 15-inches of rain.
📈11-Trillion gallons for California as a whole.
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Should be crystal clear by now that we will see multiple Category 5s in 2024 and highest probably of the first "Category 6 hurricane" ⚠️
Beryl is just the harbinger or foretaste of what's to come with this "new normal" of climate fueled, unprecedented Superstorms.
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Most extreme submarine volcanic eruption in recorded history spewed insane amount of water into the stratosphere -- and it is ALL still up there (H2O potent greenhouse gas) -- and no one can connect the dots.
Most important climatic events since Tambora and Krakatoa. 🌋
Scientists are still perplexed about unprecedented weather phenomena, and are now downgrading the promised 2024 epic hurricane season. They are still afraid to mention the unprecedented and epic Tonga volcano. foxweather.com/weather-news/…
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Huh? Sea ice is about 2 weeks behind schedule due to extreme wind and waves breaking up the margin. It's -100°F in Antarctica right now, definitely not a radiator.
Scientists have warned that Antarctica is now losing ice so fast that it could flip from being the Earth's refrigerator to its radiator.
@SkyNewsThomas analyses the rate of ice loss, and the factors contributing to it.
Latest: trib.al/A53IGhH
📺 Sky 501 and Virgin 602
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A highly publicized Atlantic hurricane season forecast will need 28 storms, mostly in September and October, to verify.
Could this be the worst climate science prediction ever made?
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⚠️48-hour animation of wind chill from HRRR model.
Pink is -30°F or colder. That's a large chunk of real estate with dangerous, deadly cold. 📉
Arctic blasts or #PolarVortex + #BombCyclone = extreme start to Winter 2022-2023.
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Some fact checks here:
1. This is not a map of the jet stream.
2. The jet stream is not "broken"
3. Rolling Rossby Waves are not causing the Polar Vortex to wobble all over the place.
4. This map is at 10 hPa pressure level or 16-20 miles above the Earth's surface.
5. The U.K. is not next in line for a cold snap.
6. This animation has nothing to do with the stability of a climate epoch.
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Blizzard warning for Marquette, Michigan with 31"-41" of snowfall expected from powerful storm over next 2-days.
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Roger Hallam, Founder of far-left climate groups Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion sentenced to 5 years in prison for blocking M25 roadway in November 2022. Along with 4 others, he was found guilty of conspiracy to create a public nuisance.
Judge called them "fanatics"
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A hurricane hitting Los Angeles is exactly what every news outlet and social media platform needs right now. ✅️
Except, Hilary will be post-tropical, so technically, NOT a hurricane, and won't be Category 3. Don't panic but certainly prepare for tropical storm conditions.
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Weather is not climate, when it's cold, of course.
Just 2 years ago, Antarctica suffered its coldest 6-month period ever recorded.
CNN: "It is important to understand weather is different from climate. Weather is what happens over shorter periods of time (days to months), such as the seven-day forecast. Climate is what happens over much longer periods of time, such as several years, or even entire generations."
Of course, CNN is right, but the outlet seems to have lost sight of that fact in their reporting recently.
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We definitely do not want to go back to the fires during the pre-industrial climate of 150-years ago. America burned 🔥 continuously, set by settlers, farmers, and indigenous population.
Excellent essay on history of fires:
nationalhumanitiescenter.org…
1880 Census of Fire 🔥
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Vast majority of tracks for eventual Major Hurricane Lee are clustered into a "recurve" scenario well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, there are indeed some outliers that have a mind of their own. Until the rest join the outliers or the whole envelope of solutions drifts westward, we will look for a decisive northward turn by next Tuesday.
Florida and Carolinas are right now in the clear (7-10 days from now) and very small chance for New England impact in 10-12 days.
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Summer June 1 - July 19, 2023 so far across the Lower 48 states has seen near normal temperatures: +0.07°C
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