im just make sense of the markets rn.
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“If you’re interested in it now, then you’ll be interesting about it later.” - @naval
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"If you don’t lie awake at night thinking about it, you don’t want it badly enough." - @naval
do what you can't stop thinking of.
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people who think well, write well.
writing, forces clarity, exposes gaps, uncovers complexity, translates thoughts, improves precision, sharpens ideas.
writing is not a gift you are born with, its something you learn over the years.
tips to get better at writing:
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"if you want to be great at something you have to be obsessed with it. it has to come from within." - @MagnusCarlsen
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excessive reliance on ai tools weakens critical thinking, analytical reasoning and problem solving abilities, what you don't use, you lose.
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unlike instagram where people strip for views, x is the actual place where people accelerate.
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consume less, contemplate more.
mindless scrolling or consumption can hijack your thoughts, destroy self-image, and distort reality.
you become a reflection of others curated lives, not your own.
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rewatching a video over and over again is not effective learning, many people do it and somehow think they learned it, because it gives them a sense of fluency and understanding (which disappears once things get done)
this is called the illusion of learning and happens because information is stored in the short term memory. effective learning is linking information to the long term memory.
one of the biggest leaning misconceptions.
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> write the way you talk, be natural.
> use short words, short sentences and short paragraph.
> never use fancy words to look smart, they are signs of a pretentious ass.
> use chatgpt to improve, not to write.
> write daily.
> read great writers.
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in short, a new attention mechanism that aims to outperform the traditional transformer mechanism.
🚀 Introducing NSA: A Hardware-Aligned and Natively Trainable Sparse Attention mechanism for ultra-fast long-context training & inference!
Core components of NSA:
• Dynamic hierarchical sparse strategy
• Coarse-grained token compression
• Fine-grained token selection
💡 With optimized design for modern hardware, NSA speeds up inference while reducing pre-training costs—without compromising performance. It matches or outperforms Full Attention models on general benchmarks, long-context tasks, and instruction-based reasoning.
📖 For more details, check out our paper here: arxiv.org/abs/2502.11089
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most people days are full with endless activities, yet their lives are empty and lack meaning.
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digital devices hold your attention through a neurological mechanism:
> new information = dopamine in brain.
> the dopamine rush makes us crave more information.
> brain's reward centers activate when we receive new information, like notis or msgs, as seen in fmri studies.
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trump is a genius. in just 24 hours:
> brought tiktok back.
> effortlessly altered the perception of gen z.
> makes genz tune into his inauguration week through tiktok.
> flexing a $50b valuation on a meme coin, while sitting on 80%.
you can just do things 🤷
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smart and obsessive people are, in fact, widely distributed. artists, writers, architects, quants, hackers, philosophers, engineers, product marketers, designers, entrepreneurs, content creators, medics, founders, sportsmen etc.
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the world is full of information, we have no choice but to filter almost all of it out. but we draw to information that confirms our own existing beliefs, confirmation bias, this mental shortcut feels good and boosts confidence, but it keeps you from seeing the contradictions that can lead to real growth.
why does this happen?
1. our brains are built for efficiency. when faced with a lot of information, we tend to focus on what feels familiar and reassuring.
2. when our beliefs are closely tied to our identity, admitting we might be wrong can feel threatening.
3. social dynamics reinforce biases in like-minded groups.
confirmation bias drives polarization in politics, traditional media and social media, and more.
solution? seek diverse perspectives and engage with those who challenge your views. practice critical thinking by questioning your assumptions and looking for contradicting evidence. use structured decision-making to consider multiple viewpoints before concluding.
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is this chart actually accurate?
> 1924 (c, hard times): accurate. the u.s. was recovering from the 1923-24 recession, agriculture was struggling due to falling prices.
> 1926 (b, good times): mostly accurate. the "roaring twenties" brought economic growth, booming consumer spending, and technological advancements like cars and radios.
> 1927 (a, panic years): partially accurate. there wasn't a major crash, but there were signs of instability, especially in agriculture and global markets.
> 1931 (c, hard times): accurate. this was during the great depression with widespread unemployment and bank failures.
> 1935 (b, good times): partially accurate. the economy was recovering, but unemployment was still high compared to pre-depression levels.
> 1942 (c, hard times): debatable. world war ii caused hardship for civilians, but war production boosted jobs and economic activity.
> 1945 (c and a, hard and panic years): partially accurate. the war ended, leading to a post-war boom, but there was uncertainty as the economy transitioned from wartime to peacetime.
> 1951 (c, hard times): inaccurate. the economy was strong, gdp growth was 8%, fueled by post-war growth and korean war spending.
> 1953 (b, good times): mostly accurate. the economy was strong for most of the year, though a mild recession began in q3, but was limited in 1953
> 1958 (c, hard times): accurate. a major recession hit this year, with unemployment rising sharply and economic growth slowing.
> 1962 (b, good times): mostly accurate. the economy grew steadily, though the cuban missile crisis briefly caused market panic in october.
> 1965 (a, panic years): inaccurate. the economy was thriving, with low unemployment and strong gdp growth.
> 1969 (c, hard times): partially accurate. inflation was rising, and a recession started late in the year, but most of the year was stable.
> 1972 (b, good times): mostly accurate. economic growth continued, though inflation was becoming a concern as prices started to rise, reaching 3.3%.
> 1978 (c, hard times): partially accurate. stagflation—high inflation(7.6%) and slow growth—was a big issue during this period.
> 1980 (b, good times): inaccurate. the u.s. faced a recession with high inflation (peaked at 14.8%) and unemployment reached 7.5%.
> 1981 (a, panic years): partially accurate. another recession hit as as the federal reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation reaching 20%, but it wasn't a major crash.
> 1985 (c, hard times): inaccurate. the economy had recovered from earlier recessions and was growing steadily again.
> 1989 (b, good times): mostly accurate. the economy was generally strong.
> 1996 (c, hard times): inaccurate. the economy was booming during the 1990s tech-driven expansion.
> 1999 (b, good times): partially accurate. the economy was strong, but the dot-com bubble was inflating rapidly, nasdaq peaked in march 2000, signalling the start of the dot-com crash.
> 2005 (c, hard times): inaccurate. the economy was growing, though housing bubble was inflating, housing prices were rising rapidly, setting the stage for the 2008 crisis
> 2007 (b, good times): partially accurate. markets were at their peak and housing market began to show weakness before the financial crisis hit in 2008.
> 2012 (c, hard times): partially accurate. recovery from the 2008 crisis was slow, with lingering high unemployment and weak growth.
> 2016 (b, good times): mostly accurate. the economy grew steadily, with low unemployment and moderate inflation.
> 2019 (a, panic years): inaccurate for most of the year; the economy was strong until late december when covid concerns began emerging globally.
> 2023 (c, hard times): partially accurate. inflation remained high, but job growth. Unemployment remained low and tech sector experienced significant layoffs.
so... the accuracy varies, some align well, while others are less accurate.
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this is the most retarded thing ever.
the company pays you to work, not to post your personal opinions on ranking their unreleased model.
cause no company wants their employees to publicly rank their unreleased product underneath the competitors, especially in its current version (tbd).
valid reason for them asking you to delete it.
I resigned from xAI tonight.
It makes me very sad, but was the right thing to do -- and here's why.
xAI told me I either had to delete the post quoted below, or face being fired.
After reviewing everything and thinking a lot, I've decided that I'm not going to delete the post -- which is very clearly a harmless personal opinion.
Why did they tell me to remove this opinion? Well, according to them, the reason is that I acknowledged that Grok 3... exists.
I wish I was joking. I'm not. That's the reason -- the fact that I wrote "Grok 3 (TBD)" is grounds for being fired.
But wait, hasn't Grok 3 been officially acknowledged by xAI? Yes. Yes it has.
I'll post below the official xAI blog post talking about Grok 3, along with many public Elon posts and video where it is repeatedly acknowledged.
To be clear, the post they wanted me to remove is 100% just my personal opinion. I do not know where Grok 3 will stack up against other SOTA models. Hopefully it does well, I don't know. That's why it says "opinion" and "to be determined."
It will probably be pretty good at some things and imperfect at others. I didn't think this was a particularly wild opinion.
Again, their official demand said that even writing "Grok 3 - TBD" is somehow "confidential information." This is absolutely absurd, since it's repeatedly been acknowledged by the company and its famous CEO.
Are they mad that my clearly-labeled opinion didn't guess that the still-unreleased Grok 3 will be higher? Maybe. Probably. Again, maybe it is at the top, I genuinely don't know. That's why it says "to be determined."
The specific feature of Grok I spent the majority of my time working on with a really hard-working team is very cool and I hope it works extremely well for everyone. I won't say what it is because that would be **actual** confidential information. (Maybe after it comes out.)
I still hope Elon and xAI win. Yet......
It's very disappointing to me that a company and leaders who supposedly champion free speech and openness would try to fire a low-level employee over a clearly-labeled opinion that contains absolutely nothing controversial, but here we are.
The entire situation has been very strange. I thought about just deleting the damn thing.... But you know, once you start caving and giving up holding mild personal opinions, the slope becomes very slippery.
I'll keep my speech and dignity and get another job, or build one. Catch ya on the flip side.
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