If you had listened to Jason's advice to pivot from crypto to AI on June 8, 2023, you'd have missed out on a 128% move.
@alongsidefi's
$AMKT Crypto Market Index tracks the top 15 coins by market cap. It’s up 128% since Jason’s tweet.
Alongside’s motto is “Do Nothing” – buy the index and forget about it.
Doing nothing is surprisingly hard, though, and Warren Buffet’s advice, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” is even harder.
When prices are high, people can’t wait for a pullback to buy things at attractive prices. The future bear market they desire is abstract and tame. Things will mostly stay the same, but people will come to their senses and prices will float down. At their lowest point, our Buffet-quoting hero will swoop in and bravely bid where no fearful man would bid.
When the real bear market comes, though, it’s vicious. Rates are going up with no end in sight. Inflation is running hot. A hard landing is inevitable. Sam Bankman-Fried and Do Kwon go to jail. Software multiples plummet, and customers, looking to cut their own costs, pull back on software spend. Your favorite talking head tells you to sell, that things are going to get so much worse. Jason tells you to pivot from crypto to AI.
So you sell and you pivot, and that’s precisely when the market starts coming back to life.
You were fearful when others were fearful. You should have been greedy. At the very least, you should have done nothing. Next cycle, you say, you will be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
But the bull market comes, and prices are going up, and what are you gonna do, not get in on the upside? So you buy a little bit, and prices keep going up, and you’re a genius, so you buy more, and soon you’re dollar-cost-averaging in at all-time-highs, but it’s going to go so much higher. You don’t just want beta, like the schmucks buying Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF, you want alpha. You’re a genius. So you start trading shitcoins. You buy all the memes, anything wif a hat. You ape into all of the AI x crypto stuff because you know that narrative matters, and that AI x crypto is the new meta. You, of course, are smart enough to know that the tech isn’t there yet, but there are so many greater fools than you, and you will sell when those fools get maximally greedy, squirrel your gains away to deploy into the next bear market, when everyone is fearful but not you, no, you won’t be fearful next time.
Be curious and develop conviction, or decide it's not for you. Just don't pivot into whatever's hot because it's hot, and especially not because someone on twitter told you to.