1/n. I read ~3 years of @carolinecapital blog posts. This is a general review... mostly bc her beliefs, interests, and thoughts change drastically over time. Ex: her poly post was taken out of context, since it was written in 2020, before Bahamas. TLDR: Caroline is very based.
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This is my model for understanding the ecosystem rn.
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coinbase has some of the most insane dark patterns I've ever seen. like this "instant withdraw" thing that eats 1.75% (and is turned on by default). holy shit man - the PMs are total maniacs. using the app is literally like trying to dodge bombs.
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If it drops to 17 ppl are gonna go to jail.
Buying HYPE at 22 is like dating a 22 year old supermodel. Hyperliquid.
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"I can't say anything because I'm under nda...... it was solana"
FTX Estate are currently in the process of liquidating something that most of CT thought wouldn't be liquidatable anytime foreseeable. Can't say more due to NDA but should add $2.5B cash to balance sheet. Expecting creditors to get full repay much earlier than I anticipated.
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Replying to @sama
a big booba waifu office worker is walking down the streets of kyoto in the spring. sakura blossoms are falling. her skirt is about 3 inches too short (dare I say, immodest). a student of the nearby magic academy appears out of nowhere. his eyes are glowing with blue streaks. suddenly, all her clothing falls off and she becomes wet with pleasure.
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OK - this is my current assessment of the world
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jeffy yu has one of the most insane CT arcs. goes to sf state (summer session at stanford once). does a < 1 year stint at scale. creates zerebro. max extracts during AI spring. fakes his own death. comes back she/her. now leading the fight against CEX and other crypto orgs using evidence on google sheets. one of the best to ever do it.
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So if you’re a quant fund, you basically pick a random math term + capital / research? But if you’re a macro fund you pick a philosopher / history term + capital? And if you’re on chain you pick a blockchain / evm related term + capital / labs?
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pasternak spends half a year vacationing across asia and buying bags + phones for his gf and her sisters while larping like he’s working hard. then he comes back and launches a new token and does the math wrong. never seen anything like it.
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when you don't think he's really working 80+ weeks while on vacation across Asia, but you can't prove it.
Replying to @Icebergy @icebergy
I work 80+ hours per week but can’t spend an hour or two with my girlfriend according to CT
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wait, is he implying that he's only gonna live 2 more weeks?
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forget this cycle's eth or sol. what is this cycle's luna?
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They’re the same person
buying some SOL here
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gcr went into tg and told everyone to buy eth and sol. not even joking.
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8/n. The selection of books is eclectic… from anthropology to PUA. At one point, she even picks up a book from a used book store because she thought it looked interesting. I rate her blog 5/5.
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I don’t believe in ai crypto at all, but I do believe that other people who also don’t believe will believe that other people who don’t believe will believe.
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We go down until iron dome intercepts all the missiles. Then we go up bc ppl want to buy the geopol pump + short liqs like last time. Then we crash again after ppl realize gox, sr, and negative tradfi flows are still on-going. But then we rally cuz saylor actually finishes the atm and starts yeeting 2 billion, but then we sell off again cuz he’s out of cash and the premium shrunk, but then we rally cuz tradfi starts pitching btc etfs to clients. But then we sell off cuz Kamala becomes potus.
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3/n. Caroline’s blog shows infinitely more introspection and dedication towards self-improvement (albeit, towards becoming an EA bot). Based on the blog alone, I assess that if she really tried, she could crush SBF’s League of Legends rank in far fewer games.
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Replying to @tolstoybb
Not first black
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Wait did china literally go from zero-covid to fuck it we ball herd immunity in 3 weeks?
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ppl think that once a token has pumped, it is too late or too risky.... but think abt it another way. the primary purpose of a token is to pump. therefore, once a token has pumped, it has shown itself capable of pumping. therefore it is less risky.
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These are the levels + expected CT reactions.
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This cycle was a mistake everyone. It was all a grift - turbocharged by VC $. BTC shoulda topped at 10K and ETH at 800 and stayed relatively decoupled. Everything shoulda stayed under the reg radar until we build something actually truly useful beyond some monkey jpgs.
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Adam Cochran is a medical doctor, lawyer, economist, protocol designer, software developer, ux designer, product manager, trader, investor, VC, political pundit, military strategist, geopolitical analyst, philosopher, professor, thought leader. He’s also an award winning playwright (according to IMDb) and an ftx leaderboard trader (self-documented). Don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t do something. Anything is possible.
Oh boy so: 1. Dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson’s disease dementia, and Alzheimer’s are three distinct differential diagnosis and no “respected” doctor in a field capable of diagnosing those is going to lump them together especially for a patient they’ve never seen. 2. BLD doesn’t have short-term memory loss and severe memory loss isn’t common until stage 4-5. Especially with BLD usually mood, visual hallucinations, and severe motor function issues are first. (Example: Robin Williams had early stages of it, and likely aggravated his depression). By stage 4, tremors and drooling are common. In stage 5 they can’t even feed themselves. 3. BLD develops in people in their 50s-70s, with an average prognosis of only 4 years. It progresses fast. If Biden had BLD then statistically he’d be dead. 4. PDD does have memory issues right from its start but while 70% of late stage Parkinson’s patients have PDD, they have Parkinson’s motor issues first, including a noticeable tremor in both motor function and constantly in speech. Example, Michael J Fox’s movements and speech even on the strongest Parkinson treatment meds. No magical pill combo is going to hide that. You can literally read for yourself the details of this disease, look at examples of known people who have comparables, and realize this statement is a load of crap. The diagnosis is: -He’s really fucking old.
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if ethena is the next luna, then you should buy. if it isn’t then there’s nothing to worry about. it’s just that simple. retardio
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What a fantastic show of poverty.
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2/n. First, I want to say that Caroline’s blog is fantastic. It would be a tragedy if it got pulled from the web. In contrast, SBF’s blog is hella mid – basically a post or two about utilitarianism / sabermetrics.
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Replying to @layofftheweed
Dude should take a job then dca slowly into good coinsz
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there’s like an eth faction and a sol faction. they won’t shill each other cuz of ego and generational animosity, so they end up both shilling cosmos periodically. fascinating behavior.
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Tier list of hyperliquid risks: S: loracle, sisyphus A: autistic whiteboi with a math degree and a lot of free time B: lazarus C: feds
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sophisticated L1s and protocols are just memecoins for people who fancy themselves intelligent. never forget that.
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4/n. Second, reading the blog in actual chronological order (from oldest to more recent) is super insightful. You end up watching Caroline’s journey from an entry-level trader at Jane Street (with the accompanying imposter syndrome) to managing a large team of traders.
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on one hand, the latest ev instagram is bearish. on the other hand, you notice here that he's flying commercial. that means he's running low on funds and will need to tweet soon to pump the price. skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been
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The tax selling might be done but I forgot to account for the additional 1-2 billion of selling at token 2049 to pay for escorts.
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Degenspartan came back to tell us it’s so over and don’t kill yourselves.
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7/n. In contrast to SBF (who claims books are sus), Caroline is an avid reader. Her book reviews are decent summaries (especially the more recent ones). She systematically distills the books into a few central lessons / ethical takeaways.
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6/n. You see her articulate her thoughts / decision making processes, etc. Though a lot of the content is similar to what you’d find reading from other places in the rationality community. Overall, I would characterize Caroline as someone who’s broken the NPC loop.
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wait, so the jup team has 5 tokens? jup, meteora, mer, mock, and wen? king shit -- sisyphus must be so hard.
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My biggest regret was not fshing when this came out. Check the date picotop
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ngl there’s something aesthetic about gainzy holding a cigarette and philosophizing
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What if CZ is actually simply too poor / illiquid to buy FTX... and binance isn't safu either anons.
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The NDB pattern I've noticed over the years. There's probably value in following the sis momentum.
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5/n. Interspersed between posts on productivity, work, and management are random bouts of “girliness” which makes her incredibly endearing (dating, her reflections on taytay, gossip girls, etc).
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You know, I'm something of a "work 80+ hours/week guy" myself
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The ppl making fun of the way caroline looks are pretty gross. Yea we get it, u lost money.
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eth tech has improved greatly in the last 30 minutes. the merge, surge, verge, purge, and splurge roadmap will enable eth to be truly ultrasound and censorship resistant (without the negative externalities of bitcoin mining). in addition, the implementation of verkel trees will allow validators and nodes to become truly stateless. bitcoin was just a bootloader for eth (the superior SOV).
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I will confess, I trust wif more than I trust most alt l1s
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edge is a bear market concept. balls are what you need for a bull market.
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tru story. I dmed thiccy about a coin, and the mf had every possible flow mapped. unlocks here, airdrop dumpers there. someone buying spot (you see on velo)… but neg onchain etc. I say: bro, that’s too much edge. Meanwhile I’m thinking if ansem doesn’t tweet about it in 24 hours im out.
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Whether or not jup is the next Coinbase or an illegal scam offering is solely dependent on if the price goes up or down.
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adam is in so deep that if binance doesn’t implode within 6 months he might have to come back as a 0x anime girl.
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yes, sbf farmed and dumped your defi protocols. that was the point of the defi protocols.
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The saudis know they will run out of oil and/or get outcompeted by US shale. Their only out is bidding solana so that they can live off the staking rewards in perpetuity. Princes know the value of passive income. Everyone will be using saga phones in Neom.
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everyone is saying you need to work hard, be in every tg, give up on weekends, etc. but do you really? isn't the better to simply have a 3-4 uncorrelated moonbags and wagie your paychecks into them + hodl instead of trading your way to mental illness?
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I hate to say it but crypto ppl hating on the ai bubble has the same cope energy as ppl hating on crypto in early 2021.
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the truth is that someone needs to be exit liquidity. ideally it’s some chinese whale we don’t have to interact with. most likely it’s some fang engineer or a dentist.
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Replying to @adamscochran
sifu is a totally gambler. my best guess is that he read your tweets and turned bearish. but then you used his position changes to assume he knows something. the cycle of bearishness continues.
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Replying to @Noahpinion
Junji ito. Demon slayer style also works
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Replying to @fuckyourputs
don't store your money on exchanges run by people named sam
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this is one of the most cringe things I’ve ever read. worse than vitalik being a commie.
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I can't believe coinbase refers to withdrawing money to a bank account as "cash out"
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thiccy is like that dude who shows up to college campuses to debate students.
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zerobro the charts. I’m talking about financial popcat. Let him buy back in and then jellyjelly it. Call his quant and run the rune playbook. I need everyone on wallstreet ai16zed by lunch
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Let this be a lesson. Never write your own code. Always fork uni’s
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Instead of studying trading, the alpha was studying buddhism
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Did ppl basically forget about the ftx hacker / exploiter already?
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Being a criminal enterprise that facilitates money laundering makes it less likely they are insolvent.
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the AOC regime will absolutely rain hell on everyone who's ever touched crypto. the IRS will deep audit anyone who's ever touched the chain. the CIA is going to abduct jeff yan and put him in a black site.
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man, eth is gonna be the ada of next cycle.
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meme tier list: S: study, retardio, gm A: choose rich B: wice city, hfsp, wagmi
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choose rich
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Replying to @adamscochran
This is cope. Kamala def cracking down. That’s fine tho, I enjoy reading dockets
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everyone I thought was fully in now saying they are happy to buy at lower prices.
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I will pass down generational tax losses
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My portfolio is at an ath against ETH. Study denominating against the slowest horse so you always win.
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The manlets have won. The markets have decided.
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no matter what happens, this is extremely high quality drama. I thought only crypto could produce a storyline like this, but ai has shown itself to be superior to crypto yet again.
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Just checking up on a prediction.
The NDB pattern I've noticed over the years. There's probably value in following the sis momentum.
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I plan to make an intricate sequence of rotations that will probably underperform an unlevered spot long.
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Re: crypto culture, I think CZ has outperformed SBF. Yea... "I'll buy as much SOL as you have, right now at $3. Sell me all you want. Then go fuck off." is a cool quote, but "Some things are better left unsaid. Recommend no more news like these..." is an order of magnitude better
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every time ppl post "$140 next" sol hits resistance and drops. you need to post "$1000 next".
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I mean, vitalik triple-wielding moderna is pretty on-brand. eth has always been blue-coded (dei meetups, soy, etc). btc has always been red-coded (anti-vax, anti-government, etc). solana is purple.
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I don't really like the boundaries they placed on the chatbot.
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Why does everyone assume degenspartan left cuz of the wallet thing? Perhaps he just left because it’s finally over.
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I will confess, I don’t know the difference between sei and sui except one is a dbz coin and the other hsaka posts a pokemon.
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How does it keep getting more toxic here. What happened to gm and wagmi.
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So Binance US stores all their fiat at silvergate huh?
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first thing I did when trying to do DD on jto was to go to the investor page to make sure kanav wasn't in there.
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HL eco coins have the SRM problem - which is that everything is USDC denominated. Really ruined solana 1.0. need to move the eco to symmetric xyk pools hype denom. that's how hype becomes money. maybe they should have some mechanism that's like "pool-2-farming-to-get-listed"
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There's 1 law that you don't ever, ever break -- and that's disrespecting Taylor Swift.
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When you suspect that a person who he has known for more than ten years, and who he considers trustworthy was Matt Huang all along, but you can’t prove it.
This looks like it's going to be a big deal.
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still remember argentina? I don't. at most 50bps of mindshare. we've moved on. enjoy your 9 figures hayden, best to ever do it.
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