vibes for today gm

Here’s the view of Mt Fuji from the track

💀 just two dudes practicing judo, don’t see the big deal

The lack of supercars and seeing only luxury SUVs is so in line too Roads (public infrastructure) are probably too shit for sports cars with low clearance heights

Do we need more early-stage capital? What we need is more money for liquid markets to absorb these tokens. The imbalance between primary and secondary market funding is going to continue to expose crypto’s weakness. Simple hypothetical, just looking at Paradigm. >They invest all $850mm in various seed deals over the next year (for reference, $1.54B was invested in early-stage deals in Q1 2024, that’s $6.17B annualised). >Let’s say half of that is in token deals? >An average valuation of 5x (including the homeruns and the duds). >And on average, Paradigm is 20% of each deal. So total FDV is 850 x 0.5 x 5 x 5 = $10.625B This is just the deals Paradigm will be involved in over the next year. Doesn’t include all the other deals and all the other token unlocks that will hit the market. I’m not sure this is something the liquid market can absorb. We need to see some monster liquid fund raises. Otherwise we’re just going to see Celestia-esque price action over and over again.

My completely normie tradfi friend Can’t tell if this is mad bullish or bearish Hyperliquid

Ye last month

Less than a minute between a wellness check and locking in that pub appointment 🐐

when someone one day inevitably does the {tweet overlaid on a chart} thing to show exactly when this was tweeted its going to be legendary

gm thank you to @isaac_mung for intro-ing me to the coolest group of people and a massive thank you to the said "coolest group of people" for a fkn sick time in Lisbon wagmi @SolanaMBS

new chapter:

A lot of people outing themselves today. You can really tell who: - missed out on $hype - feels threatened bc their own exchange is shit - is jealous of the success/attention Stop being cringe and gey. Focus on your own shit instead of kicking down. Hyperliquid.

In the long run, we’re all full-time Bullniskes.

yesterday was the largest long liquidations since FTX implosion day for all perps on Binance $188.29mm liquidated yesterday, $197.45mm on FTX day

In Japan there is an insane respect for the act of crafting and all that comes with it, from the people to the materials. It’s hard to explain how intense and holistic this respect is. It’s why I sharpen my handmade kitchen knife before every use, never put books on the floor, take insanely good care of my tea set and wakasa chopsticks, etc etc. It’s a respect to the items which in turn is a respect to those who created those items. And it’s a disciplined respect that isn’t dependant on how tired or busy I am. The pursuit of crafting is the pursuit of continuous perfection, even when you know you’ll never achieve perfection in your lifetime. There is a beautiful pride in this. And the tools that these craftsmen use are of course the works of other craftsmen, who also take great pride in their role. This is why people in Japan have reacted so passionately to a mere iPad ad. cc: @sershokunin one of the few people in CT who will understand my point (I mean, look at his handle)

Is there a list of embassies that do pay?

its like the solana villa thing surely enough of us find this cringe that behaviour like this shouldve been bullied out of the ecosystem ages ago idgi, cringe people are so resilient

Presto’s fund up 100% from Jan~May this year. I’m not meant to share the internal strategy but fk it, here’s some alpha: They have a team of 100 quants who spend their time inverse trading everything I do. Incredible sharpe ratio.

State of the Japanese Crypto Market ~ published as a @presto_labs x @KaikoData partnership ~ Why does Japan lag behind its Asian peers in crypto adoption and volumes? > To explain this, we take a look at the history of crypto in Japan, as well as various regulatory and tax headwinds that make the nation's crypto adoption challenging. (Things that don't help: 2 of the largest exchanges hacks happened in Japan, crypto gains being taxed at up to 55%, and exchanges offering less than 10% of the coins Binance does) We also spoke to @tristan of @Backpack and their interesting decision to be based out of Tokyo; maybe with some changes, we can see more talented founders to choose Japan as their home base. prestolabs.io/research/state…

my full comment on derivs positioning ahead of the elections (was slightly misquoted): 1. On perps Traders seem to be fairly cautious heading into the election due to uncertainties surrounding both the election (05Nov24) and the FOMC two days later. Total BTC perp OI has been relatively stable since 2nd quarter while neither the OI-weighted nor volume-weighted aggregate BTC funding rates imply heavily skewed positioning: The 10-day average annualised OI-weighted and volume-weighted funding rates are both currently in the low 7% range, which is a stark contrast to the 50%+ level from early March this year when positioning was extremely long. 2. On options Despite Trump's implied election odds from Polymarket hitting the highest levels since early August this week, long OTM call flows weren't particularly noteworthy. If we focus on the first expiring contract after the election which is 08Nov24, OTM calls make up 56% of the OI on Deribit BTC options which is also nothing out of the ordinary. However extending our horizon, this number goes up for the next two quarterly expiries with 64.53% for the 27Dec24 expiry and 79.79% for the 28Mar24 expiry, signalling a bullish outlook ahead.Another thing to note is that after spending the majority of 3Q 2024 negative, the 30-day IV-RV spread in BTC is back positive meaning that implied vols are higher than realised vol. Despite IV being slowly compressed recently, as the election entered the 1-month period this week, the IV-RV spread hit the highest levels since mid-July signalling some bid in vols.

Good to hear the smart funds have caught on. And yea not the biggest surprise >rebrands away from crypto by removing “crypto” from their website after FTX goes down (funnily, they invested $278mm in FTX) >puts “crypto” back on their website after prices start rallying Tiresome

He doesn’t even know what perps are tbh

$45/month seems to be the current market price for a jailbroken AI chat Regular ones are ~$20/month? So jail break => 2.25x subscription price, or a 125% premium (@0xlaiyuen if you haven’t seen this)

1/ Just 2 days until the Bitcoin halving Today we published our Weekly Hot Take The 2024 BTC Halving Preview: Bullish but is it tradeable? A deep-dive into past halvings and look at supply + macro data for more insight into what this event means for investors.

ICYMI: This week's Presto Research Summary 22Jun24 Links in the next tweets:

$btc funding rates & implied vol both drifting lower recently think OI has too no edge/alpha from this info, but doesnt seem like market is necessarily bullish for near term cc: @mattdorta @isaac_mung

Orca Global Management - satellite office in Hakuba, Japan. Highest rec to stay at Phoenix Hotel & Chalets if you ever visit Hakuba

if by "everyone" you mean washed celebs, probably bc they see this as an easy money grab?

Fkn awesome Big congrats to team Can’t wait to finally lose real money

ICYMI: This week's Presto Research Summary 29Jun24 More in the next tweets:

Last sunset in NY as a resident 🌆 thanks for the last 5.5 years ❤️ gonna miss the energy and hustle

Hey can you delete this please? My therapist said posts like this are not good for my mental health

youre welcome guys, @Presto_Research shiing [your bags] on @CNBC @PC_RedPillTaker bull posting irl

"Just don't die. And if you survive, you’ll have no choice, but to make it." egirlcapital.com/writings/dE…

currently at the world's greatest coworking space (jazz cover of smooth operator playing in the background rn)

>disappears for a month >comes back to subtly shill cabal coin sad to see what $RLB price action can do to a mfker retar dio

To: CIA, FBI, all other federal agencies Sub: Explanation for what I’ve sent my homies on Telegram Dear respected Sir/Ma'am, I am writing this to explain the situation of my messages that I’ve sent on telegram. It is not that I necessarily relate to the views and opinions I expressed, including in the memes I’ve sent, and formally state for legal purposes that I do not nor do l necessarily align with any ideologies or ideas present in my sent messages. It is simply that I posses a distinct humorous approach when communicating with my homies. I will not gratify/cooperate with any further allegations that may develop in an analysis of my DMs. Yours truly, Racist Person

the next spot crypto ETF application (so after BTC and ETH) will be for SOL

new research in collaboration with @laevitas1 read it if you want ever want ETH > 4k again. big big thank you to the 4 industry experts who spent a lot of time to provide their insights. think its rare to have so much brain power concentrated in one place. thankfully i was able to bring down the average IQ.

my (infrequent) daily commentary > big shift in Dems crypto strategy: WH retreat on veto, WH statement, and the FIT-21 passing the House > $NVDA causes AI-coins bid with 40% increase in perp volumes, 7% increase in OI, but only 1% increase in price (sauce: @laevitas1 AI index)

I wrote about the election premium in the BTC options market (and generally how to crudely strip out event premiums from implied vol). Anyway, any chance I can interest you guys in a vega neutral 55k/72k 08Nov24 vs. 65k75k 28Mar25 3x1 calendar strangle?

Japan’s happiness outlook is kind of cooked I think. I’ve gone to ~20 cities/towns in the past 3 months and everyone is unhappy with inflation and overtourism/people moving to Japan. Particularity in areas with high immigration (Kawaguchi, Sagami, Kasai, Nishio, etc). The price of rice has doubled from a year ago and alcohol, rice, miso, etc all going up from tomorrow, even floating rate mortgages. How this manifests im not sure. But I can see the country becoming more right wing.

repping @PrestoResearch at a Solana panel at @kbwofficial apparently they needed someone to bring down the average panel IQ, happy to help

follow @PrestoResearch if you dont want eth to keep nuking (nfa)

bullish for a certain centralised exchange token hyperliquid

He’s already long ETH, don’t send him more bad energy

despite Timmy and Dudley's reminders that 50bps is still on the table, I'm camp 25bp equities already seem expensive compared to short-tern treasuries given the AI-driven rallies this year so the upside in trad risk assets might be limited tho upside in crypto... i have no clue tbh, just stay short ETHBTC arguments for 25bp and 50bp in the next tweets (sauce: myself, bbg, gs sales)

stablecoin market cap (USDT+USDC) past the previous ATH

gm のぞみ🤝崎陽軒のシュウマイ

game plan: > pardon Sam, Caroline > let the FTX/Alameda crew + Su & Kyle run it back up turbo > $btc 7 figs, $sol 4 figs ($eth probably around $3k level) > we all cash out > arrest all those fuckers again, and this time throw the fat cunt Sam Trabucco in there too > on to the next cycle

Bye Singapore. My thank yous for my 4-day trip (and a few words to describe my experience with them): @isaac_mung (hung-over) @cornergirl999 (whiskey on the rocks) @rayfuu8 (principles & loyalty) @0xlaiyuen (beers & anti-inflati… I mean anti-war) @vantablvckv (don’t fade narratives) @ericnicomedez (this music has no words??) @wassiecapital (good with cats) @stateroot (more popular than me) @ PM (Irish-exit specialist) @ HN (🐳)

「自分がラッキーだと思う人は一生ラッキーで居続ける」/ “those who consider themselves to be lucky will continue to be lucky” - Ueno-san (random gentleman I met at a win bar in Kyoto) count yo blessings, stay positive™️

i was curious about this and had a look at historic returns for the past 13 summers (01Jun~31Aug, ~ months / 92 days) the average summer return was +14%, while the average 3 month rolling return is +40% if we look at weighted summer returns, this drops to +8.5% (i.e. weigh recent observations more, an exponential weighing with an arbitrary factor of 0.85) not much to observe in summer vol take what you will from analysis with 13 observations but yea, summers seem more muted than usual...

4,502.9 $BTC "improperly" flows out (/"unauthorised outflow" i.e. hacked) of Japanese crypto exchange DMM damage is ~$310mm DMM says customer withdrawals won't be affected. From their financials, it looks like they'll have to cover the losses from their non-crypto businesses - DMM famously has one of the largest porn catalogues in Japan (friend told me). bitcoin.dmm.com/news/2024053…

Listening (I agree already)

repping @fisher8cap w @isaac_mung (waiting for our job offers)

1/ Today we published our Weekly Hot Take Tokenisation versus Satoshi’s Vision? Takeaways from the FT Crypto & Digital Assets Summit Basically my thoughts from the Financial Times Crypto & Digital Assets Summit that I attended in London last week. The image below will make sense at the end of this thread, but it was basically inspired by @Joeyg_poh's quote: “it’s almost like seeing a cruise liner add wings and say ‘now we're massive proponents of aviation as a concept’ as they sail across the seas” You can check out the full paper via the link, but I've also summarised it below (most discussed topics, most interesting topic, and my main takeaway) prestolabs.io/research/token…

today i bought my 2 year old cousin 1 $eth i'll give him access to the wallet when he turns 18 onboarding the next generation with serious long-term conviction

Is this post also part of the coordinated shill

You know the Chinese food bouta be absolutely BUSSIN when the chef be Asian-squatting and smoking a ciggie on their break

gcr gcr doing wonders for my mental health this morning

me when I find who was selling $ETH

i... dont know what to say

love that he said “dialed up” process may be new school but the language is old school

The German government sold 333.33 BTC per hour last week 🤡 That’s $20mm of selling per hour (at $60k BTC). if ngmi was a country…

crazy 1-day change in ETH implied vol term structure red -> green

Amidst this turmoil, I stand firm with the First Lady of the Republic of Korea 🫡

☀️@solana Breakpoint 2021 ☀️🇵🇹 Obrigado Lisboa xx And from @isaac_orca and myself, thank you to all the protocols and funds we met 🐐 🙏 Cant wait for Breakpoint 2022 @SolanaConf Limit long $SOL

i'll even sign it for you

the efficient market hypothesis is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that crypto bros will reflect all available information to efficiently create shitcoins for all possible events

just explained crypto & NFTs to my mother for the first time, with real life current prices Pretty sure now she thinks I have the wealth of SBF or Su Little does she know, I'm just unsuccessfully participating in a ponzi Sorry mother, will probably move back in soon

shilling my bags at the 5th ave Apple Store believe in something

I really enjoyed this piece and I hope people take the time to read it. It’s probably most beneficial for crypto kool-aid drinkers, which is ironic because I doubt they would read it with the open mind necessary to appreciate the importance of what’s being said. Anyway, 8 of my favourite parts:

1.334% of tokens is a common payment for 6mths rent nothing to see here

closest I’ve been to a woman in 171 days

Candidates for Tokyo’s upcoming Governor elections looking promising 🙌🔥

precisely why I rejected myself from wharton

GM 🇬🇧 #FTcrypto

gm from (a non-flooded) singapore

What does “rammed and oversold ✅” mean? Is this a British thing that somehow doesn’t mean “I got pounded ✅”?? Genuine question

Actually, 2 new chapters bc @isaac_mung (long-term biz partner and even longer-term friend) and I are formally launching Orca Global Advisory (@orca_global / orcaglobal.io). There’s a gap in the market where smaller protocols, particularly in the early-stages, need help but can’t afford the current leaders in the crypto advisory biz. This is the group we’re aiming to help! Please reach out if this sounds like you (or anyone you know - we have a referral program 🤗). I’ll be based in Tokyo, Isaac will be in Singapore.

Still below 5 figures. No wife. No girlfriend. No friends. Can't play golf. Can't run more than 2km. Under 160cm. Yet, none of these hurts as much as staking 50% of my net worth in $TIA.

Its amazing how risk averse some people are when it comes to career Particularly young people with nothing to lose

meanwhile, chad Governor Michl of Czech National Bank wants to allocate 5% of their reserves in $BTC (~$146B) he said, and I quote, "I like profitability" 🗿🗿🗿

me in front of shawty after $eth hits 4k:

Okay, noted.

Trump's first 100 days in office everything you need to know (kind of)

Never understood the “shit on the entire ecosystem to pump my own bags” angle some of these guys take. It’s so unproductive to become a maxi of anything if it means your mind becomes so rigid.

The most beautifulest shitpost

ETH-BTC vol spread (1wk ATM) is at YTD highs Higher than FTX week in November '22. Highest since the Merge hype period in September '22. FYI chart is from @laevitas1's 🐐Spread Analysis tool

yea, its a country where 4% of police officers are armed, despite London being one of the stabbing capitals of the world different notion of what a "guard" or even a security authority entails

come find me in action 6ft4 dark handsome athletic build (will probably be advocating for women’s rights)

Was rooting for Max, but… you can't selectively choose who gets unlapped just so the title deciders are forced into a racing situation where @LewisHamilton is basically a sitting target why watch a sport if the race director can just effectively rig it at the end? @fia @F1

1 week ETH skew (25d) reached the highest level YTD, and 1 month skew is getting close. Skew is basically the relative richness of puts over calls in IV (Implied Vol), so you can see that the market is still nervous in the short term. sauce: @laevitas1

People only care about my macro views. I swear I’m degen and not a tradfi mid-curve.

Polkadot's marketing is working - they've made it on to bloomberg

From our 17th November newsletter to our investors (+ close frens). Thanks for tuning in JPow @federalreserve ☀️ We were waiting for this hawkish tilt price action. *pats self on back*

Had dinner w an $OHM maxi on November 02nd. Was a slight douche. "bro its all about the bonding" "you weren't in the town hall?? bro you're ngmi lol" "im all in bro, im chillen" -72% since then. Hope you doing ok, bro

Russians buying average of 210 BTC daily (7da). Though not sure how that compares to pre-invasion. Seems insignificant. 210x44,000x7~=$63mm since invasion Not really “Russian billionaire oligarchs converting to crypto” kinda size. Seems disconnected from a 30+% rally.