Teach: @CtrRelPol | Research: @myfaithcounts | Books: The Nones, Great Dechurching, Vanishing Church | Former Pastor: @AmericanBaptist | Graphs about Religion
Mount Vernon, IL
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Some personal news.
Starting August 1, I will be joining the Danforth Center on Religion and Politics at WashU (@CtrRelPol) as a Professor of Practice.
I think it's a perfect step for my career as Senator Danforth envisioned the Center to be a place for public engagement around religion and politics.
That's where I see myself headed in the next stage of my career.
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For some reason, I have been thinking about this moment a lot today.
It's from John McCain in 2008 at a town hall.
The woman begins to espouse conspiracy theories about Barack Obama's nationality.
He immediately shuts it down.
"No ma'am. He's a decent family man."
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The finding that young women are becoming a lot more liberal while young men are becoming a lot more conservative DOES NOT REPLICATE in the Cooperative Election Study.
In fact, the two lines have run in almost perfect parallel for the last 15 years.
NEW: an ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world.
I think this one of the most important social trends unfolding today, and provides the answer to several puzzles.
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In 2018 - "I know God really exists and I have no doubts about it."
Silent: 70%
Boomers: 59%
Gen X: 62%
But, look at this huge gap between Gen X and Millennials.
Millennials: 44%
Gen Z: 33%
The decline for Gen Z is staggering, too.
49% in 2014
39% in 2016
33% in 2018.
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Just wanted to say that Latter-day Saints have always been big supporters of my work.
And I've always been big fans of theirs.
They are the most kind, generous, family and community oriented people I've ever met.
They didn't deserve this.
No one deserves this.
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Here's substance use by high school seniors in 1976:
Alcohol - 92%
Cigarettes - 76%
Marijuana - 64%
Substance use in 2021-
Alcohol - 53%. Down 39 points
Cigarettes - 17%. Down 59 points.
Marijuana - 38%. Down 26 points.
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For decades, social science has 'known' that women are more religious than men.
However, if you track the religiosity of young adults - something really interesting happened.
Women are more likely to claim no religious affiliation than men.
It started around 2016.
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Tony Campolo passed away today.
He was 89 years old.
He was one of the most gifted preachers I have ever heard.
If you have a few minutes, listen to him tell the story of throwing a birthday party for a prostitute in Hawaii.
It's worth your time.
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It's objective true that Joe Biden is the most religiously active President we've had in generations.
In late 2023, Biden had attended Mass 100 times. That's more than Carter and W. Bush combined.
We forget how rare church going is among American presidents.
Incredible: 64% of Republicans say Donald Trump is a "person of faith." Only 34% say Mitt Romney is. deseret.com/2024/1/3/2398272…
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Older Catholic priests are way more willing to conduct a wedding for a same-sex couple than younger ones.
Among those born before 1950, 61% would do so.
It was 19% among those born in 1970 or later.
Is there a breakdown by age of each denomination? Specifically wondering about old vs young Catholic priests.
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At some point I'm going to write a book called,
You Should Go to Church Even If You Don't Believe In Any of It.
From a purely pro-social, pro-democracy perspective, attending a house of worship regularly is a very good thing.
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In the United States, highly educated people are more religiously active than those with the lowest level of education.
In Europe, it's the opposite.
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I don't think people fully grasp how much of Protestant Christianity is going to die off in the next 3 decades.
68% of Missouri Synod Lutherans have seen their 55th birthday. It's 57% of Southern Baptists.
There's no major denomination where a majority are under 45 yrs old!
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The 2018 GSS was just released and there's some big news. Those of "no religion" (23.1%) are statistically the same size as evangelicals (22.8%). There was also a small resurgence of mainline Protestants, while Catholics are down 3% in the last four years.
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This may be the most revealing statistic about religion and politics over the last fifteen years.
Among white, self-identified evangelicals:
Never attenders in 2008: 45% Democrats, 36% Republicans.
Never attenders in 2020: 18% Democrats, 65% Republicans
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The finding that young women are becoming a lot more liberal while young men are becoming a lot more conservative DOES NOT REPLICATE in the Cooperative Election Study.
In fact, the two lines have run in almost perfect parallel for the last 15 years.
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The drop in fertility over the last decade is primarily among Democrats.
Peak parenting in 2010:
65% of Republicans in their late 30s were parents.
62% of Democrat
Peak parenting in 2020:
60% of Republicans in their late 30s were parents.
50% of Democrat
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Liberals have won the culture war. That's the only conclusion I can come to when looking at 50 years of polling data.
same sex marriage
marijuana
pornography
abortion
extramarital sex
The average American is more permissive today than the average American in 1972.
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The Southern Baptist Convention just released its membership statistics from 2022.
The news is bad. Very bad.
The largest single year decline ever.
A deep dive here, with some other indicators of a really bleak future.
graphsaboutreligion.com/p/th…
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Religion in the United States has become a haven for those who have done everything "right"
College degree
Middle class income
Married
Children
That's the clear and unmistakable story from the data. And it's bad for democracy and religion.
graphsaboutreligion.com/p/re…
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In 1988, 6% of white Democrats took an atheist or agnostic position about God. It was 3% of nonwhite Democrats.
In 2021, 32% of white Democrats were atheist/agnostic. It was 8% of nonwhite Democrats.
There's never really been a racial God Gap for Republicans. <2 pts in 2021.
The GOP is getting more diverse. Why? Here's one potential reason--there's an immense gap in religious belief between white Democrats and nonwhite Democrats. Nonwhite voters, religiously, are more like Republicans than white Democrats: frenchpress.thedispatch.com/…
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In 1991, 87% of people aged 18-35 years old were Christians. 8% of them identified as religiously unaffiliated.
By 1998, 73% of young people were Christians (a 14 point drop) and 21% of young people identified as nones (a 13 pt. increase).
America lost its religion in 1990s.
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Two facts that the data are clear on:
1. Liberals are more likely to be diagnosed with a mental health condition than conservatives.
2. The more people attend a house of worship, the less likely they are to be diagnosed as mentally ill.
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People without a high school diploma are the least likely to attend religious services weekly.
People with graduate degrees are the most likely to attend religious services weekly.
This has been true in every year of the Cooperative Election Study since 2008.
N = 595,535
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Was asked the other day: what's one fact about American religion you wished more people knew?
My answer:
In 1972, 55% of white weekly church going Christians identified as Democrats. 34% were Republicans.
In 2021, 21% were Democrats. 62% were Republicans.
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The share of Catholics who attend Mass weekly in 2008 vs 2024, by age.
18-35: +11
36-44: +5
45-54: -5
55-64: -13
65+: -21
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It's amazing how pervasive smoking and drinking were among high school seniors in the 1970s.
92% of 12th graders had consumed alcohol
76% had smoked cigarettes
In 2022:
53% had consumed alcohol beyond a few sips
Just 17% had smoked cigarettes
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Women attend religious services more than men. That was true for generations.
Until about five years ago.
The survey data is consistent on this point.
Women born in 1980 or later are more likely to be never attenders compared to men of the same age.
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Share believing in God without a doubt.
Republicans
1988: 66%
2022: 63% (-3)
Independents
1988: 59%
2022: 51% (-8)
Democrats
1988: 63%
2022: 39% (-24)
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Really strong evidence of a religious resurgence in England and Wales from new data from @biblesociety.
Among 18-24 year olds, share attending monthly:
2018: 4%
2024: 16%
Among 25-34 year olds:
2018: 4%
2024: 13%
Overall, attendance went from 8% to 12%.
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Do people become more conservative as they age? This data tells a nuanced story.
For those born between 1930 and 1949, they did move rightward between 2008 and 2021.
1950-1964 saw no change at all.
Those born in 1965 or later have moved to the left between 2008 and 2021.
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Tired: stories of Christian parents freaking out when their children renounce a belief in God.
Wired: stories of Atheist parents freaking out that their children watched VeggieTales on Netflix without their permission and now believe in God.
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Nine in worship this morning. Four were my family.
On the way home, my oldest asked about the church's future.
He asked if he could give some money to help.
He then said, "I miss the way it used to be."
Hard to find the Good News this morning.
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I've got data on this.
Here's the share of folks who were raised Protestant who ended up Catholic.
Evangelical: 3%
Mainline: 5%
Black Protestant: 2%
Meanwhile, about 13% of folks who were raised Catholic ended up as a Protestant in adulthood.
Last night I met a group of converts. All of their stories had the same basic shape:
1. I was Protestant
2. I learned about history
3. I became Catholic
Now I wonder about the stories in the other direction:
1. I was Catholic
2. ???
3. I became Protestant
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The media narrative that the Muslims are this huge voting bloc in Michigan is just not supported by the data.
Illinois is 3.7% Muslims.
New York is 3.6%
New Jersey - 3.5%
Maryland - 3.1%
Then Michigan at 2.4%
There may be ~100K Muslims voters in the state.
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The whole narrative about white Christians turning to the GOP really needs to be narrowed down.
It's really white Christians with low levels of education and lower levels of church attendance.
Almost all the movement is the bottom four boxes on the left here.
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Does the impact of education on being a none look different based on age?
It clearly does.
For Boomers - more education leads to a higher rate of nones.
For Millennials - it's the exact opposite. The more highly educated are much *less* likely to be nones.
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The President wants churches to reopen.
For many congregations, that might not be the best choice. People 55+ are 30% of the pop., but make up 90% of COVID deaths.
52.9% of weekly attending Christians are 55 or older.
I wrote this for @CTmagazine
christianitytoday.com/ct/202…
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In a little over 24 hours, I won't be a pastor anymore.
It's a title I've held almost continually since I was 20 years old.
I've built a career on understanding the decline of religion, and now my church is closing.
I appreciate Peter Smith's deft touch on this.
Many U.S. churches close their doors each year, typically with little attention. But this closure has a poignant twist.
A well-done story by @AP Religion’s Peter Smith on the closing of @ryanburge’s church. apnews.com/article/c6b9e938e…
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Church attendance has this really odd impact on views of immigration.
The more Republicans go to church, they less supportive they are of cutting legal immigration.
For Democrats, higher church attendance leads to strong anti-immigrant views.
(Excluding the non-religious)
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Here's the share of each state that was atheist, agnostic, or nothing in particular in 2008 and 2022.
In 2008, there were high concentrations of nones on the West Coast and the Northeast.
By 2022, the nones had risen above 35% in almost every state in the union.
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This is empirically, undeniably false.
This is 14 years of the Cooperative Election Study. Total sample size is 547,456.
In no year are those with a college degree more likely to be religiously unaffiliated than those who stopped at a high school diploma.
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26% of Americans want a complete ban on abortion.
92% want universal background checks for gun purchases.
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The countries that have the lowest GDP have the highest level of religiosity.
Places like Senegal, Ethiopia, and Bolivia.
More prosperous countries like Norway, Denmark, and Switzerland are less religious.
The huge outlier?
The United States.
Rich and religious.
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For all the talk about how conservative Christians are the most involved in the political process, let me share some data.
Atheists engage in many political activities at 2x the rate of white evangelicals.
🧵 with graphs!
graphsaboutreligion.com/p/no…
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Being politically liberal and being highly religious are just not compatible.
Among white people who never attend:
45% are liberal.
Among weekly+ attenders:
11% are liberal.
That same pattern is there for every single racial group.
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The people who are the most likely to attend religious services weekly are those with graduate degrees.
Those who are the least likely to be weekly attenders are those who didn't graduate high school.
That's been true in every year of the CES (15 years in total).
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I started my newsletter under the old algorithm.
1/3 of my traffic came from Twitter.
Now, it's very rare for >1% to come from this website.
It's honestly not about echo chambers or partisanship.
It's really simple to me - I WANT TO SEE LINKS IN MY TIMELINE.
I have one very, very simple gripe about this website.
It suppresses any posts with outbound links.
This used to be a great place to aggregate news sources.
Scroll timeline.
Click link. Read story.
Back to the timeline.
Repeat.
You can't do that anymore.
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Doing interviews for 20 Myths, I often get asked what's the biggest falsehood I see when it comes to data about religion.
It's education leads people away from religion.
14 survey waves. Total N of ~550K.
In every single survey the less educated are more likely to be nones
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What's the combination of education and gender that leads to the highest level of religious attendance?
It's men with graduate degrees.
That's appeared consistently in the data since 2016.
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New post on same-sex marriage.
Here's support over time.
1988 - 18%
2004 - 37%
2014 - 57%
2018 - 68%
2021 - 64%
2022 - 67%
Notice anything? After decades of movement to the left, support for same-sex marriage hit a ceiling and hasn't budged. Why?
🧵
graphsaboutreligion.com/p/ap…
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You wanna see how bad mainline Christianity collapse is?
In the 1970s, there were times that 10% of the sample were mainline Protestants between the ages of 18 and 35.
Today, it's 1.5%.
Very soon I won't be able to do any analysis of this group because the N is too small.
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You are likely going to hear this a lot tonight:
"White evangelicals are going to support Trump because of abortion...."
But, I make the case here that the key issue for white evangelicals and Trump is not abortion, it's immigration.
religioninpublic.blog/2020/0…
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Nearly all Christian clergy definitely believe in the bodily resurrection of Jesus Christ.
99% of evangelicals.
97% of Black Protestants.
92% of Catholic priests.
The only outlier: the mainline.
75% definitely believe.
15% probably believe in the bodily resurrection.
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Eight saints have gathered for worship at First Baptist Church this morning.
Next Sunday will be the last time that we meet.
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Support for a woman to access an abortion if she wants one for any reason was higher in 2022 than it was at any point since 1977.
That's true for every religious group.
The only group where a clear majority do not support abortion in this scenario are evangelicals.
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In 1988, 65% of Southern Baptists were Democrats. 25% were Republicans.
In 2022, 21% of Southern Baptists were Democrats. 75% were Republicans.
Many claim that "There is no liberal drift in the SBC."
@thatlandinotho, surprisingly, says they're right. There isn't a "drift."
No, the SBC has undergone an intentional liberal shift over the last six years, engineered by Greear, Litton, and Barber.
centerforbaptistleadership.o…
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Religious attendance is actually *increasing* among men.
Weekly attendance is the lowest among men born in the 1970s (~22%).
Among college aged men, ~26% attend weekly.
For women born between 1980 and 2000, there's been basically no change in frequency of attendance.
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States that have seen the largest decline in weekly religious service attendance, 2008 vs 2020.
New Mexico: 32% -> 16%
Utah: 54% -> 39%
Montana: 33% -> 18%
Rhode Island: 38% -> 23%
West Virginia: 41% -> 27%
Kansas: 37% -> 24%
Alabama: 45% -> 32%
Texas: 39% -> 28%
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This is my essay on what it feels like to close a church.
It's easily the most emotional thing I've ever written.
It tries to weave together the increasingly large platform that I've built with the declining church that I was called to serve.
deseret.com/faith/2024/07/25…
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I don't think people living in large metros understand how dependent small town America is on the government.
The largest employers in huge swaths of rural America are stuff like:
Schools
Healthcare (Medicare/Medicaid)
Police
Firefighter
Prisons
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Young folks are almost completely unaware of what the term "Protestant" means. They are 2.5x more likely to say that they are "Christian" than Protestant.
That's going to make religious classification much harder going forward.
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When people talk about the decline of Christianity in the United States, they need to be more specific.
It's the decline of WHITE Christianity.
Non-white Christians were 16% of the country in 1972 and are 16% today.
White Christians declined from 73% to 46%.
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There is no empirical evidence of a religious revival happening in America.
Among people born in the 2000s:
42% identify as Protestant or Catholic
44% identify as non-religious.
The most important news you will see all day…
There is a Christian REVIVAL happening across the country.
Bible sales: + 41.6%
Spiritual app downloads: + 79.5%
Christian music streams: + 50%
God is good. This is how we win.
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Given the scandal emerging today, this graph deserves to be seen again.
A rich person with a 900 on their SAT is more likely to graduate with a bachelor's degree than a poor person with a 1500.
#collegescam #operationvarsityblues
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If there's a graph that lives rent free in my head right now, it's this one.
For decades, there was a positive relationship between religious attendance and interpersonal trust.
More attendance <---> More trust.
That relationship flipped in the last decade.
🧵
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I look at more data about this than almost anyone on Earth.
This statistic is completely implausible.
Yet it gets 150 retweets.
Fact: 70-88% of youth born in evangelical homes leave the faith after one year in a secular college.
Maybe. Just maybe. We start to focus on more doctrine, more ability to explain what and why they believe, and less performance, less trend, less show, less entertainment.
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It's finally here.
From Oxford University Press.
If you want to understand the contours of American religion, this is my best effort.
Over 140 charts, graphs, and maps.
I visualize all the way back to 1776 through the modern day.
Buy a copy, please.
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Apropos of nothing at all.
France is one of the least religious countries in Europe.
About 8% of the French report weekly church attendance.
That's lower than the least religious state - New Hampshire at 12%.
And lower than the European average (14%).
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So this is demonstrably false.
In a survey of high school seniors, in 1976, 64% of them had consumed marijuana in their lifetime.
Among seniors from 2022, just 38% have ever consumed marijuana.
Alcohol consumption is way down.
Cigarette smoking has collapsed, too.
It’s because they’re sitting around by themselves smoking weed. Not a positive shift at all. Society can thrive when there’s lots of social drinking. That’s been proven. But no society of stoners has ever accomplished anything.
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This is survey data on religious attendance. All fifty states are included, as well as many countries in Europe.
The overall weekly attendance rate:
US - 25%
Europe - 14%
44% of Poles report weekly attendance. Higher than any state.
It's 3% of Danes. Lower than any state.
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About 14% of Europeans report attending religious services weekly.
It's 25% of Americans.
The least religious state is New Hampshire. It's closest equivalent is Great Britain or Spain.
The most religious state is Utah. It's closest equivalent is Poland.
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Huge h/t to @b_schaffner, we can do some CCES
comparisons.
For Trump (2016 vs 2020) - white only:
Evangelical: 77% -> 75%
Mainline: 55% -> 51%
Catholic: 57% -> 57%
Jews: 29% ->26%
Atheist: 15% -> 10%
Agnostic: 25% -> 18%
Nothing in particular: 46% ->39%
THE NONES ARE THE STORY
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*Clears Throat*
This finding DOES NOT REPLICATE in other data sources.
This is just 18-year-old males in the Cooperative Election Study.
And I have a decent sample size:
2008 - 214
2012 - 133
2016 - 278
2020 - 224
2022 - 186
I just don't see any consistent pattern here.
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Share that is Protestant or Catholic vs. None by Generation
Silent Generation: 72% vs. 18%
Boomers: 61% vs. 25%
Gen X: 50% vs. 35%
Millennials: 41% vs. 45%
Gen Z: 36% vs. 48%
Note how Millennials look a lot more like Gen Z than they do Gen X.
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"I grew up deeply religious and became an atheist."
That’s not typical.
Only 10% of atheists/agnostics report high personal devotion as kids.
Most didn’t lose religion — they never had much of it to begin with.
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We don't trust anything.
Literally almost every institution in the United States is less trusted today than twenty or thirty years ago.
It's true of older Americans. It's true of younger Americans, too.
The only exception is the military. Older folks trust them more now.
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The share of young Catholics who favored same-sex marriage in 2018:
84%
In 2022:
70%
The drop was eight points for younger evangelicals (55% to 47%)
And, 15 points for young mainline (90% to 75%).
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The sexual orientation of 18-25 yr old college students from @TheFIREorg.
85% of Muslims ID as straight.
84% of Protestants.
83% of Catholics.
The biggest shock to me? Latter-day Saints.
Only 78% say they are straight!
It's 55% of atheists.
53% of agnostics.
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There's an incredibly strong connection between educational attainment and interpersonal trust.
Among people who have a graduate degree, 56% say that "people can generally be trusted."
Among those who went no further than high school, it's just 19%.
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Started graduate school in August of 2005, just thinking I was going to get a Master's degree and go work for government.
Barely got a visiting gig in academia.
Got laid off twice. Cleared out my office both times.
Almost left for the private sector.
Then this:
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In 1776, almost no Americans were Catholic - less than 2%.
By 1850, that number was 14%.
Methodists were about the same size at the Founding - 2%.
By 1850, they were a third of all Americans.
Congregationalists went from 20% to 4%.
Episcopalians went from 16% to 4%.
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For Republicans, it's becoming more apparent that they value the *idea* of religion without actually participating.
In 2008, 17% of Republicans who never/seldom attended said religion was very important.
In 2021, that had risen to 27%.
To be Republican is to be religious.
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Personal news, as they say:
@jonestony and I won a grant from the @templeton_fdn to conduct the largest ever survey of non-religious Americans.
The goal is to create a more cohesive and meaningful typology of non-religious Americans.
This will be a 3 year project.
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Members of the clergy were asked - "would you perform the wedding of a same-sex couple if your religious group allowed it?"
33% of Catholic priests say that they probably would.
63% of mainline pastors.
<5% of evangelical and Black Protestant pastors.
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In 1975, about 30% of American adults were mainline Protestants.
In 2024, the share dropped to a new all-time low: just 8.7%.
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If American religion was represented by 100 people:
40 Protestants
24 Catholics
1 Mormon
1 Orthodox
3 Jews
2 Muslims
1 Buddhist
1 Hindu
4 Atheists
5 Agnostics
18 Nothing in particular
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Among Latter-day Saints who are 60 years old:
68% Republican.
20% Democrat.
48 point gap.
Among Latter-day Saints who are 20 years old:
50% Republican.
38% Democrat.
12 point gap.
🤔🤔🤔🤔
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Rank and file mainline Protestants are not liberal.
They've never been liberal.
They are moving increasingly towards the Republican party.
Please stop saying "liberal mainline.*
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When do people leave religion?
According to this survey of 2,400 nones, there's a specific window of time:
15-25 years old.
That's when more than half of non-religious folks head for the exits.
The most popular age was 18.
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This is trust in 12 institutions over the last 50 years, broken down by generation.
Trust has plummeted in every facet of American life, except for the military.
The only exception is Millennials.
Millennials are significantly less trusting of EVERY institution listed.
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This is the share of Americans who:
1. Believe in God without a doubt AND
2. Attend religious services nearly every week or more AND
3. Report that they are affiliated with a religious tradition (aka not nones).
It was never that high (~30%).
Today, it's 19%.
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In the last fifteen years, American religion has become less about things like regular corporate worship and more about using religion as a cultural and political marker.
It's Christians who don't go to church fighting for "traditional" values.
🧵
graphsaboutreligion.com/p/re…
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