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PILL MILL
Last year a kidney drug hit 89% odds for FDA approval on Polymarket, then crashed to zero in days.
Nothing was wrong with the drug.
Pharma researcher @real_akshay_k on how to not get rekt forecasting drug approvals.
poly.market/3JZBKiP/
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Odds of NATO Article 5 invoked this year spike to 11% on reports of Russian drones over Poland
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🔮 Mass Migration and Separatist Movements in Canada
Maxime Bernier @MaximeBernier is the founder the People's Party of Canada (PPC) and former Minister of Foreign Affairs. Bernier is campaigning on an accommodating response to the Trump tariffs, restricting immigration and boosting military spending.
(00:00) Introduction
(01:00) Could Pierre Poilievre lose his own seat?
(04:45) Resisting the national mood to fight Trump
(07:58) Didn't Trump throw out the last trade deal with Canada?
(09:30) Populist movements, birthrates and GDP per capita
(16:10) Would Trump prefer to deal with Carney?
(17:10) Does Trump threaten Canadian sovereignty?
(18:44) Secessionist movements in Canada
(21:00) Canada's & NATO
(22:27) What if Trump gets Greenland, Panama Canal, and parts of Canada?
(24:30) Maxime's election predictions
(20:04) How the Ukraine war ends
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DID THEY GET FORDOW?
Pentagon: Taken “off the table”
Iran: No major damage
Polymarket:
- 78% chance Fordow destroyed
- 17% chance of another US strike on it this month
- 16% chance of an Israeli ground op against it
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Nvidia $NVDA just announced the Trump administration has banned them from selling H20 chips to China "for the indefinite future."
$5.5 billion charge to Q1 earnings incoming.
@DAlperovitch from our recent podcast on the case for stricter GPU export controls on China.
Full episode 👇
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🔮 TARIFF REFUND?
Former White House trade lawyer @petereharrell breaks down the exact moments when conservative Supreme Court justices turned skeptical of Trump's tariff case.
And what it means for our $2,000 tariff stimmy checks.
poly.market/Hfklqmd/
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🔮 The Iranian Regime is Cooked
Professional forecaster @Just_Curius called the Iran strikes months in advance.
Here's what she thinks happens next:
poly.market/olSRvSY
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Trump Bombed Iran.
What’s Next?
-Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz in 2025: 55% (up 23%)
- Khamenei out this year: 61% (no change)
- US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025: 40% (down 12%)
- Israel announces end of combat ops against Iran in June: 26% (up 16%)
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🔮 AUTOMATED MARKET MAKING ON POLYMARKET
How @defiance_cr created a profitable liquidity bot and why he decided to open-source it
poly.market/PvT3aNf
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🔮 MANGO MARKET
How mentions trading pro @mango_lassi went from blowing up his account to $130k in P&L in less than a year.
poly.market/7WlFsZA/
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🔮 John Bolton: Israel Could Take Out Iran's Nuclear Program Solo
Former Trump National Security Advisor @AmbJohnBolton on Trump's leadership style, territorial ambitions, and the potential for a conflict or nuclear deal with Iran.
(00:00) Trump's ADHD leadership style
(02:10) Trump on China: Transactional or ideological?
(04:40) Panama Canal, Greenland, Canada 51
(07:40) Anything Iran can do to avoid war?
(10:10) Costs of military action on Iran
(11:20) How Israel could attack Iran without involving the US
(12:40) Israelis constrained while Witkoff negotiates?
(14:35) NATO states should wait out Trump
(15:22) UAP incidents at NSC?
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🔮 SACREBLEU!
Polymarket traders are betting on a fast recovery of the stolen Louvre jewels.
History suggests otherwise.
By @abcdefmlzy
poly.market/n3chkxa/
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🔮 MADURO NEXT?
Is Trump's strike on a drug boat a step towards regime change in Venezuela?
poly.market/9qQ0WXd
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🔮 He Made $300k Betting on a “Narcissistic Sociopath”
How RememberAmalek saw through skewed polls to predict Zohran Mamdani’s win, and what he’s betting on now
poly.market/SVWhvSi
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🔮 HORMUZ WILL STAY OPEN: TANKER EXPERT
This Greek shipping analyst predicted Iran's limited response to US strikes.
Here is why he predicts Iran is unlikely to severely restrict shipping through the critical Gulf chokepoint.
poly.market/HBYZVfG
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🔮 EXCLUSIVE: Decision Desk Seychelles 2025
Accusations of witchcraft, Qatari influence, and abuse of power as island paradise heads to the polls
poly.market/a8SNfG1
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🔮An options degen looks at $TSLA earnings
We team up with @unusual_whales to Combine prediction markets, options flow, and mention markets ahead of Wednesday's earnings release
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🔮 NEW PODCAST
Jeff Park @dgt10011 of @bitwise on Prediction Markets and Radical Portfolio Theory
Jeff is the author of “Radical Portfolio Theory,” the case for a portfolio with 60% centralized state maximal assets, and 40% decentralized, private assets that are state power resistant.
As part of the 40% “resistance” bucket, Jeff argues for an allocation to professional gambling, which could include things like sports betting, poker, and prediction market trading. We talk:
- DeepSeek: Is “phase 1” of the AI trade over?
- Institutional Adoption of Information Markets
- The Microstrategy Trade: Who’s the sucker at the table and why convertible equity could be a game changer
- Strategic Bitcoin reserve timing
- Next nation-states to buy BTC
- Which Microstrategy risks are overblown and what Jeff worries about with the trade
- Mistakes to avoid in BTC price markets
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🔮 ZOHRAN OVERVALUED?
@0Xperp and @DougieBuckets built a prediction market index that suggests Mamdani may be up to 30% overvalued in the NYC mayoral race.
Is Zohran in for a reality check?
poly.market/uU4NLg2
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🔮 Inside the Shutdown War Room
Long-time Democratic staffer @OrganizerMemes on Schumer's game plan, the 2028 field, AOC's next moves, Katie Porter crashout, and more
poly.market/M49tovl
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🔮 EYE OF THE SCHUMER
Conventional wisdom says we're in for a quick government shutdown.
What could possibly go wrong?
poly.market/ssfdkC6/
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If Trump makes Canada the 51st state by July, you can turn $100 into a decently loaded Macbook Pro on Polymarket.
Here is what it would take:
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Trump paused some tariffs.
Libs are saying he got spanked by the bond market.
MAGA thinks it was an 'Art of the Deal' masterstroke.
All we care about is that Polymarket was right.
And now the tariff war with China heats up...
poly.market/7cXk3iK
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🔮 WILL HE GET IT?
Does our boy have what it takes to bring home the gold in Oslo?
PLUS: A brief history of Nobel Prize betting.
poly.market/jgNtqQz
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🔮 Meet Your Market Maker
This anon developer built an army of trading bots that risks $300k every NFL Sunday.
His warning: 'Don't try this at home'.
poly.market/0MhiNgS/
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🔮 Doomberg: We're Already in WWIII
The green chicken who predicted Mark Carney's 10:1 upset in Canada is back to talk Ukraine endgame, Trump's turn at lawfare, Europe's possible collapse, and the 'energy lens' for geopolitical forecasting.
poly.market/SRK6xpf/?new=1
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🔮 He’s Betting $250k that Trump won't Fire Powell
@IvanCryptoSlav, a trader with a nearly $1m lifetime Polymarket PnL, on why he’s going heavy on the TACO trade.
poly.market/xbLBjxP
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🔮 Banned in Macau to Polymarket Whale
How this professional gambler compounded his poker bankroll to $2m+ with conservative, high conviction plays
poly.market/n1X7cQe
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🔮 TRUMP TARIFF TEASE (Ukraine Edition)
poly.market/n3gtnBf
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🔮 This Tool Finds Polymarket Traders with 96% Win Rates
A conversation with @primo_data on how he built @poly_data and what he learned from top-ranked Polymarket traders.
poly.market/KcKfake
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🔮 GPT-5 LIKELY TO DROP THIS WEEK
5 polymarkets on AI's next big thing
poly.market/Xl62wDx?new=1
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🔮 FIRED NOT FIRED
Polymarket traders think that Trump is unlikely to get his way in the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Here's why one prediction market veteran @OldBullTV is taking the other side.
poly.market/iNgwCyf
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🔮China Is Coming For Taiwan
Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch on predicting the Ukraine war and how to avoid the same fate in Taiwan
(00:00) Introduction
(04:30) How easy is it to hack Signal?
(10:00) Ukraine & Trump's transactional foreign policy
(26:00) How Dmitry Predicted the Russian invasion
(27:36) Ukraine Russia ceasefire predictions
(33:30) Will Trump pull out of NATO?
(32:50) Taiwan's strategic importance
(40:10) What happens if China gets Taiwan?
(43:01) Indicators of a possible Taiwan invasion
(48:30) The Taiwan blockade scenario
(53:20) Will Trump defend Taiwan?
(56:30) Does Deep Seek mean chip controls backfired?
(1:06:10) China, AI, and Biotech
(1:11:20) AI lab espionage
(1:15:00) Middle East and Israel-Saudi normalization?
(1:18:00) The Red Sea conflict
(1:19:02) North Korea deal pt. 2?
(1:24:42) Are Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea an "axis"?
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Our quant speaks...
A chat with @alexmccullaaa on his @Dune dashboard tracking the historical accuracy of Polymarket predictions.
poly.market/QEAmjNy
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🔮 COPYTRADE WARS
@lastRidgely on what he's learned from building a tool that tracks Polymarket's best (and worst) traders
poly.market/Q1YbF8k
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🎧 NEW PODCAST 🎧
🔮 Matthew Pines on Bitcoin UAPs and Seeing Around Corners
@matthew_pines is the Executive Director of @bitcoinpolicy and an advisor to @SkywatcherHQ, a privately-funded UAP crash retrieval program. We talk:
(2:30) How to spend time outside the Overton window
(8:30) How UAPs moved from the realm of Alex Jones to the National Defense Authorization Act
(12:30) Has Bitcoin been captured by the state?
(28:10) Odds for a $BTC Strategic Reserve in 2025?
(41:40) Is it bad for Bitcoin if DOGE gets government spending under control?
(58:31) How does Matt evaluate new UAP claims?
(63:37) Matt's personal confidence level for UAP reverse engineering, genetic materials, psionic assets, etc.
(70:36) How can we bet on this? The role of prediction markets in UAP disclosure
(79: 44) What will Skywatcher do when they retrieve a UAP?
FULL VIDEO IN NEXT POST👇
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🔮 Why Trump Wants The Panama Canal
@JohnKonrad, a former merchant marine captain and founder of @gCaptain, on Trump tariff scenarios, the Panama Canal and other naval chokepoints, US shipbuilding, and more.
(00:00) Introductions
(02:00) Tariffs are a bad deal
(05:10) Non-linear thinking & embracing chaos
(07:10) Why the zero tariff world is gone
(13:35) Inflation and global trade tensions
(14:49) Revaluing the dollar downward
(19:45) 3 possible tariff scenarios
(26:04) Control of the Panama Canal
(29:44) Who can take more pain: US or China?
(34:10) Is John rare earth pilled?
(37:10) How long before tariffs snarl supply chains?
(43:30) US naval dominance
(48:05) Houthis, drones, and asymmetric warfare
(53:01) Why shipowners don't want to return to the Suez
(57:50) John's #1 forecasting tip
(59:10) Who blew up NordStream pipeline?
(60:30) Day after a Straight of Hormuz closure
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India downgrades ties with Pakistan after attack on Kashmir tourists.
Odds of Indian military action against Pakistan by June spike to 🔮 52%
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🔮 PEACE POPE?
Can Pope Leo, the all-American, 100:1 dark horse, pull off another miracle in Ukraine?
poly.market/3r93asP
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🔮 PODCAST: Tariffs Will Fail
Porter Stansberry @porterstansb is the founder of Stansberry Research. In a recent tweet, he predicted that the United States will default on its debt within four years.
Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(1:00) US Debt Default prediction
(2:59) Will Trump cut Social Security?
(4:07) Why Trump loves tariffs
(5:33) End of US dollar dominance and alternatives?
(12:12) Will DOGE make a dent?
(13:57) What would a serious version of US industrial policy look like?
(18:30) Can Trump move the Republican Party towards tariffs?
(20:05) How Trump's tariff policy will fail
(21:45) Tariffs and inflation
(26:05) Can the US go "cold turkey" off China?
(29:06) Bitcoin as a reserve currency
(31:05) Porter's portfolio today
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🔮 #3 Ranked Forecaster: "Nothing Ever Happens"
Why top competitive predictor @peterwildeford wants to take the other side of all your hot takes
poly.market/SaawD4n/
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Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) previews Powell's speech at FOMC tomorrow:
"Assuming they cut rates, they are going to want to talk about the unemployment rate and growth more as a justification for cutting rates ..."
Full Interview: rb.gy/h85vmf
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🔮 $286 to $1M from ‘Reversing Stupidity’
How @SemioticRivalry wins big on Polymarket by fading folk wisdom, and what he’s betting on now
poly.market/tm8Ptcp
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.@DAlperovitch on the underrated chances for a transformational deal with North Korea
Full episode 👇
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🔮 How @PoliticalKiwi Scored $300k Fading Nate Silver Fanboys
Reclusive Polymarket election night specialist shares his game plan for the Dutch and NYC Mayoral races
poly.market/eoXAr9D/
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Howard Lutnick has flipped Pete Hegseth as the #2 most likely figure to exit the Trump administration this year.
Reports emerged today that he is being blamed for the economic fallout of Trump’s big tariff policy.
Is Trump preparing to reverse course?
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🔮NOTHING EVER HAPPENS
So far in May, we seem to have averted a trade war with China, an India-Pakistan war, and another invasion of Gaza.
But how long can nothingness levels stay this elevated?
poly.market/WRfkq6m
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🔮 TRUMP 4 POPE
Meet the Polymarket traders betting that Donald Trump becomes the next Pope
poly.market/sQrVreo
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🔮 FLOODING THE ZONE?
Greenland, Panama, Gaza, Canada.
What markets say about Trump’s expanding global ambitions.
poly.market/GdleExf
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🔮 Elon's Party Will Fail…Unless He Listens to Me: Propaganda Expert
@DisgracedProp on the Trump-Elon Split and What Comes Next for the America Party
poly.market/9SJvGXf
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John Bolton predicts Trump may exit NATO soon.
Is he right?
And what do @polymarket odds say is next in Ukraine?
🧵 1/10
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🔮 RFK HIDDEN GEM?
Top GOP Pollster @PatrickRuffini Handicaps the 2028 Field
poly.market/22HQssk/
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These 9 markets predict how the trade war ends
poly.market/IugpSmA
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🔮 WILL TRUMP HIT IRAN?
5 Polymarkets on what's next in the Iran conflict
poly.market/dyorwoC
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Is Trump's Yemen campaign just a warmup?
Forecasters @NunoSempere and @BenShindel on the prospects for escalation in the Middle East
poly.market/CBSK36P
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🔮 Sina Toossi: 70% Chance of an Iran Deal This Year
@sinatoossi is an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy. We delve into the split within the Trump administration over Iran, ongoing negotiations, and the balance of power in the region. Note: this was recorded before the departure of Mike Waltz as NSA.
Alt links in next tweet👇
Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(05:30) Split in the Trump administration on Iran
(11:55) What would a war with Iran do to Trump's agenda
(13:00) DNI vs DOD on Iran nuke timelines
(15:00) The Trump-Netanyahu relationship today
(20:01) Where are we on Iran negotiations
(29:13) What a full US-Iran rapprochement could look like
(32:10) The Israel-Iran military balance
(35:36) How would Israel respond to a US-Iran deal
(38:00) CRINKS?
(41:00) Iran nuke timeline after the pager attack
(46:00) Rapid fire Polymarkets
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Tulsi Gabbard’s confirmation odds are down ~12% this morning after a report that one Republican senator doubts her ability to make it through committee — in part due to her stance on Ukraine.
Today’s Oracle looks at whether Trump will be able to score a quick ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war following this week’s Gaza deal.
PLUS: Will @lexfridman be the first podcaster to negotiate an international ceasefire on stream?
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🔮 ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL
Five Things Polymarket Traders Are Saying about Trump’s Tax Bill
poly.market/VZWSWkH
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🔮How @prophet_notes Made 2.5X in Two Weeks Betting on a Polish Election Upset
And what he’s betting on now
poly.market/9Sx6dPH
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🔮 LEVERAGE
Top China analyst Bill Bishop (@niubi) on what's next after the surprise tariff deal in the Trump-Xi meeting
poly.market/Y28sTwU
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Trump’s tariff rollout has spiked recession odds and spooked financial markets.
Will any cabinet members get booted for it?
poly.market/dhSih1m
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🔮 REVERSE TARIFF TACO
With a 98% chance that the US tariff level doubles this year, is the TACO trade breaking down?
5 polymarkets on what’s next in the Trump tariff blitz
poly.market/EupHZ5G
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In today’s Oracle:
- A very short history of papal gambling
- Will RFK let the raw milk flow?
- Where is the Epstein list?
- Elon Musk wins German elections
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poly.market/PXueY0K
Trump has called April 2 a “day of destiny” for America’s trade war, with reports of tariffs on “trillions of dollars” in store.
Here's what prediction markets say about:
- Which countries & industries will get hit
- How large the tariffs will be
- What’s next for the trade war
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🔮 MAR-A-LAGO PARLAY
Does this 41-page PDF hold the secrets of Trump's geopolitical playbook?
poly.market/a82IAdb
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Canada gets a political outsider as Prime Minister tomorrow, who will be politically neutered unless he calls elections soon.
Here’s why he might wait anyway.
PLUS: What comes next in the trade war?
poly.market/W8WmMHG
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🔮 The F-35 Deal is Dead
Dean Blundell @ItsDeanBlundell on what we learned about US-Canada relations on election night.
(00:00) Introduction
(02:00) Election night surprises
(03:59) Voting trends in Canada
(07:55) Canadian real estate & conservative over-performance
(11:05) Why anti-immigrant politics is not working in Canada
(16:03) Did Pierre Poilievre lose because of creepiness?
(24:30) Can Canadians ‘wait out’ Trump?
(29:00) Canada is diversifying away from the US economy
(35:00) Canada recession this year?
(41:30) The F-35 deal is dead
(44:00) Will the Alberta separatists get a boost?
(54:10) American vs Canadian media environment
(58:00) Political betting in Canada
👇 Alt links:
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🔮 UKRAINE SHARP
Stop listening to pundits and start following Polymarket’s smartest geopolitical forecasters.
A guest post from @StandDOTtrade
poly.market/igM1ApL/
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🔮 Why Trump Wants The Panama Canal
@JohnKonrad, a former merchant marine captain and founder of @gCaptain, on Trump tariff scenarios, the Panama Canal and other naval chokepoints, US shipbuilding, and more.
(00:00) Introductions
(02:00) Tariffs are a bad deal
(05:10) Non-linear thinking & embracing chaos
(07:10) Why the zero tariff world is gone
(13:35) Inflation and global trade tensions
(14:49) Revaluing the dollar downward
(19:45) 3 possible tariff scenarios
(26:04) Control of the Panama Canal
(29:44) Who can take more pain: US or China?
(34:10) Is John rare earth pilled?
(37:10) How long before tariffs snarl supply chains?
(43:30) US naval dominance
(48:05) Houthis, drones, and asymmetric warfare
(53:01) Why shipowners don't want to return to the Suez
(57:50) John's #1 forecasting tip
(59:10) Who blew up NordStream?
(60:30) Day after a Straight of Hormuz closure
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Our latest at @zerohedge
poly.market/M058DIk
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Can you guess which AI agent was most helpful in estimating the heights of frontrunners for the next pope?
poly.market/1yJuyQH
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Listen Here:
news.polymarket.com/p/podcas…
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🔮 CUT
Can Trump pressure Powell into slashing interest rates?
And we revisit @biancoresearch's question on whether Trump will appoint a "shadow Fed chair"
poly.market/zn2j3vw
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NEW:
What's next for Trump's immigration and deportation policies:
- Did Trump move detainees from Gitmo to El Salvador?
- Will pro-Palestinian protest leader Mahmoud Khalil be deported?
- New travel ban imminent?
- Trump's overall deportation stats: boom or bust?
🧵 1/8
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From the national anthem to the Gatorade shower, we bring you a complaincemaxxed preview of everything that will go down at the Big Game in the Big Easy
Courtesy of @dylanorrell and @PolymarketSport
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As odds for a US-Iran deal surpass 70%, it's a good time to listen to @SinaToossi on a what a comprehensive deal could look like
I joined the @Polymarket podcast (yes, same episode as John Bolton) to unpack Trump’s Iran strategy.
We talk about the split inside Trump’s team—and why a real deal is still possible, despite war-first hawks like Bolton wanting to kill diplomacy.
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Jones Act - drink!
I think @Polymarket should have a “Will the Jones Act be overturned before 2027?” Poll so I can bet against Cramer
Like it or not, Jones has overwhelmingly bipartisan supported in Congress.
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BREAKING: Seychelles presidential election heading to October 11 runoff.
Patrick Herminie (challenger) : 48.8%
Wavel Ramkalawan (incumbent) : 46.4%
Maarco Francis: 2.1%
🔮 EXCLUSIVE: Decision Desk Seychelles 2025
Accusations of witchcraft, Qatari influence, and abuse of power as island paradise heads to the polls
poly.market/a8SNfG1
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NEW from @0xbeamish
Why the odds for Trump to quickly launch a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve tanked on inauguration day.
Any what stands in the way of Trump buying our crypto bags?
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Breaking:
Odds Houthis end Red Sea shipping attacks shot up to 70%+ today after Trump comments that the "Houthis don't want to fight anymore"
Here's @SinaToossi on the odds for a Houthi shipping truce this year in connection with a Gaza ceasefire scenario.
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Massive spike in Bessent exit odds has fully retraced and Lutnick is back in the lead as most likely to exit the Trump admin this year.
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Polymarket Last 48 hours:
- 2025 Stock NYSE circuit-breaker: 🔮 14% → 24%
- 2025 Recession: 🔮 33% → 47%
- 2025 Inflation reading Above 4%: 🔮 17% → 48%
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Some smaller space companies are up today on the thesis that the Trump-Elon feud is bad for @SpaceX.
But there is no hint of a slowdown in SpaceX launches according to Polymarket forecasters.
If anything, odds for a higher bracket (180-199 launches) are up a bit.
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Reuters: Pakistan defense minister says military incursion by India is imminent
Polymarket: 28% odds
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The split between Silicon Valley MAGA and the ultra-nationalist groyper wing took to the social media trenches over Christmas.
Here’s what Polymarket odds are telling us about the winners and losers of this second major schism in Trumpworld.
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New market to watch: USA Stagflation 2025?
Resolves “ yes” if:
1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" AND
2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more this year
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Market thinks Pete Hegseth’s job is safe (for now) despite sharing classified Yemen war plans in a Signal group that included Atlantic editor @JeffreyGoldberg
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